Bowl thread 2010....

Well, as someone who you love to debate on everything - I can attest that everyone has what they consider to be important to handicapping.  You dont think confernce history is important, I do.  You think your stat above about coming off of a loss is important, I dont.

Thats just the way it is but I get a feeling you are always looking to prove a point, or to win a debate.  Certainly there are things that are black and white, but trend stats are not one of them.  Just more ingredients in the recipe.

I am curious about your statement that N Illinois "performed better than Fresno did and most definitely better than past MAC Bowl teams."   Lots of adjusted strength of schedule models (including mine) have N Ill very close to the bottom of the 120 ncaaf teams (mine 118, Steeles 119).  I'm curious to hear what you see in N Ill "on field performance" that you find so convincing, other than running through the weakest conference there is.

And BTW - Im pretty sure N Ill would fit right in the middle of previous MAC bowl teams.  This was a down year for the MAC (that is saying a lot), dont forget the Central Michigan teams with LeFevour as of late, and Ball St in 08 etc.  This N Ill team has done nothing to distinguish itself even amongst a lousy MAC season IMO.

I like to debate those people with valid opinions on covers (very few). I basically go through each game play by play of each team.  This takes about 15 minutes per game, so I pay another guy to do half of the games through the year.  I take out plays in blowouts, take out sneaks, downs.  Also subtract sacked yards and add them to total yards so they aren't lumped in with rushing yards.  I also grade each play as successful/non-successful.  50% yards on 1st down is success, 70% 2nd down, 100% on 3rd down.  You get the picture.

Then I put all my teams into spreadsheets.  I can then figure out how many yards per play (based on opponent) each team is better/worse than average on both offense/defense, rushing/passing, etc.  Also look at plays/game and success % to see if a team is not gonna look quite as good in yards per play.  I can basically come up with a spread based on the database I used from these totals.

Anyways, I discounted all offensive stats from NIU's first game vs Iowa St as QB Harnish DNP.  NIU was +0.95 yards per play on offense and -.04 yards per play on defense, overall +0.91.  Again this is based on SOS.  They averaged 7.29 yards per play (relevant plays) that an average offense would gain 6.34 yards per play.  On defense they allowed 5.37 yards per play where the average defense would have allowed 5.33 yards per play vs this set of opponents. 

Fresno I have at -0.05 on offense and +0.16 on defense for +0.11 overall, worse than NIU's +0.91.   NIU was successful on 57.1% of plays against a schedule 9 pts worse than average while Fresno was SUCC on 50.6% of plays vs a schedule 1 pt better than average.

If you want to look simply at pts (non D-1 games not included) to find what the spread should be (which is very flawed).  NIU outscored opponents 39.1-19.3 vs a -9 SOS = +10.8.   Fresno was 29.3 - 30.3 vs a +1 SOS for EVEN.  So with that model you'd get NIU -10.8.  That is obviously very simple, and shouldn't go by that.

I have Fresno 0.2 pts better on special teams, and both teams should run the same amount of plays, so from a math standpoint of yards per play the spread should be -5.5 NIU, which makes me wanna play them.  I'm just very concerned about all the coaches leaving. 

Hill does have an awful ATS record vs non-BCS teams in his tenure however.  I believe it is 36-63-2 and 0-4 in bowl games.

Another question - how do you grade a 3 yard 1st down run as successful or non-successful?

Just curious of your criteria for this thumbs up / thumbs down approach.

Very nice analysis.

Im curious - that seems like stats and analysis that could help the forum.  Why dont you post that for every game, and make picks?  I might be totally wrong, but I dont remember you posting picks - do you?

One thing on the analysis that I am curious about is the SOS numbers you are using.  Is it a true weighted SOS, or a simplified one?  I'm pretty sure that is where you and I are disagreeing on the same set of input numbers on this game, my SOS numbers difference are big between FS and Nil.

Another question - do you add weight to your teams performances for recent performances or special circumstances?

For instance, a team that loses their first 2 games and then runs off 10 in a row could be thought of differently than a team that went 10-0 and then lost their last 2.

I have a very non-scientific approach to this weighting, would like to hear yours.

A 3 yard run for first down would be graded as a successful play, yes.  Obviously a 50 yard pass for a first down is more successful than a 3 yard run for first down, that's why I prefer yards per play, but some teams are more dink and dunk teams and their yard per play stats are a little lower than they should be.  Oklahoma is a team that has very high success rates vs a tough schedule, but their Yards per play stats are rather low (for a very good team).

I don't post that often because I often don't have time.  I spend probably 50-60 hours a week on betting as is and have a hard enough time getting my bets matched for the amounts I want.  I do like to sift through threads now and then of those posters that I respect.

Very nice analysis.

Im curious - that seems like stats and analysis that could help the forum.  Why dont you post that for every game, and make picks?  I might be totally wrong, but I dont remember you posting picks - do you?

One thing on the analysis that I am curious about is the SOS numbers you are using.  Is it a true weighted SOS, or a simplified one?  I'm pretty sure that is where you and I are disagreeing on the same set of input numbers on this game, my SOS numbers difference are big between FS and Nil.

I meant a 3 yard run on 1st down from their own 20 yard line (start of the game, team kicks off, touchback, 1st play from scrimmage is a 3 yard run).

Im trying to get at how you can grade every play as successful or not.  It seems impossible to me.  A 8 yard gain on 3rd and 10?  A 1 yard gain on 2nd and 1?

Just trying to understand how you can do this, and also have someone else doing it at the same time and be consistent.  It would seem impossible to me that someone else could use the same criteria as you.

I meant a 3 yard run on 1st down from their own 20 yard line (start of the game, team kicks off, touchback, 1st play from scrimmage is a 3 yard run).

Im trying to get at how you can grade every play as successful or not.  It seems impossible to me.  A 8 yard gain on 3rd and 10?  A 1 yard gain on 2nd and 1?

Just trying to understand how you can do this, and also have someone else doing it at the same time and be consistent.  It would seem impossible to me that someone else could use the same criteria as you.

Care to post your bowl games here that you like?  Even just line listed?

If I am being honest, I feel like you take a snipers approach with me.  I would like to see your opinions on the upcoming games because it sounds like we take similar vehicles to reach conclusions.....

Care to post your bowl games here that you like?  Even just line listed?

If I am being honest, I feel like you take a snipers approach with me.  I would like to see your opinions on the upcoming games because it sounds like we take similar vehicles to reach conclusions.....

Honestly, don't mean to take a sniper's approach to you.  I usually just respond to people's threads if I disagree with their viewpoint.  Don't take it the wrong way.  I have probably looked at a few dozen of your posts and agree with everything you've said. 

Sure, I will post a thread with my bowl leans/play for those interested.  I did not love all that many lines to begin with and currently only have 5 bets or so that I have money on.  Then again, I haven't broken down games other than the first 3 that are being played on saturday.  I do not have any bets on the first 3 as of now.  The only one I'm contemplating a bet on is NIU. 

Honestly, don't mean to take a sniper's approach to you.  I usually just respond to people's threads if I disagree with their viewpoint.  Don't take it the wrong way.  I have probably looked at a few dozen of your posts and agree with everything you've said. 

Sure, I will post a thread with my bowl leans/play for those interested.  I did not love all that many lines to begin with and currently only have 5 bets or so that I have money on.  Then again, I haven't broken down games other than the first 3 that are being played on saturday.  I do not have any bets on the first 3 as of now.  The only one I'm contemplating a bet on is NIU. 

You must have a play on WVU right?

No play on that game yet.  I commented about WVU on page 2 of your thread.  Take a look and respond if you get a chance.

Wow, this discussion is awesome....rare to find something this good around here. Keep it up fellas!

I'm looking at how NIU performed on the field this year.  They performed better than Fresno did and most definitely better than past MAC Bowl teams.  I still have no bet on NIU and likely will not, just don't understand why everyone on this covers board taking Fresno just because NIU is from the MAC.