ARMY / MIZZ .. def leaning to Army. not played yet but here's some notes .. wouldn't touch Mizz, maybe in game, prob have a play on this one somewhere ..
Recall first that Army bowl game vs Houston ... Clayton Tune's like 3rd or 4th game and they were off a real big conf champ game vs Memp and he played pretty well given he was replacing D'Eriq King ... Applewhite basically w a mutiny on his hands led by Ed Oliver, obvi he sat that game out as did many others .. Tune is a good leader but he wasn't ready for what Army was dishing out and got his teeth kicked in .. Army w 10 sacks in that game .. I see an 8 sack game in 2010 vs Rutgers but otherwise nothing even close to that .. I def get the feeling again here although I doubt Mizzooo has the any real toxic locker room probs just a team that's been thru the meatgrinder once again .. But yeah if I'm one of Mizzoo's numerous 'questionable' players I'm probably not interested in healing up quick for this one ..
I did see Tyler Badie was practicing and expected to play .. woulda been a death knell if he was out, 26 touches per game, had 42 vs Ark .. Think no chance coach will work him to death trying to win this one even though last bowl in 2018 guys excited my guess is coach needs to motivate the roster if they want to win its not gunna be on Badie's back .. just my guess but think lucky if he gets to whatever his ssn low is show off for NFL scouts and start testing the roster for next year.. other RB's under 400yds combined vs his 1600 ..
As far as the QB sitch .. Drinkwitz sayin “100% open competition.”.. 3 QB's practice reps w the first team too on the QB situation “Whoever we feel like gives us the best chance to win and move our football team is going to play in the bowl game and so, we have a little bit of time for that competition to develop and play out.” .. Bazelak been playin 3 yrs . substantially all snaps in '20 and '21 .. Drink not sure who his starter is huh .. yeah sounds alot like open competition for next year and think we see at least 2 w meaningful reps, if neither has a hot hand maybe all 3 .. def gotta get Brady Cook some looks just based on what he did vs UGA and maybe Drink rolls w him if they're in striking distance late .. maybe Baddie says he wants to keep playin? .. idk .. if things aren't going great for Mizz then would say deeper down the roster they will go . also note that Drink is not one to just kill the clock late even down big .. seen at least a few times UGA this year Bama LY he tacked a real late TD .. sounds like he's irked quite a few coaches by not falling into line late in games ..
Besides service academies this is really the kinda opponent Army lives for .. SEC P5 .. Armed Services Bowl .. great way to keep branding themselves as TOTAL DANGEROUS BADAZZES .. really like how Army has been quick striking teams, hit their H1/Q1 TT Overs a few times this year .. def a team that will keep piling on you if you let them and as mentioned Drink will play into that too .. hence the pretty huge total makes sense .. get there idk ..
Would note Mizz has quite a few guys on D bagging big non-sack TFL numbers and need them because only way they stop Army is get them in 3rd and longs .. Mizz giving up 5 y/rush .. adjust out sacks / pure rush its 6.3 y/carry on the year .. adjust out run TFL's and just yer run of the mill pos yard rush is 7.2 .. holy sh!!!!t!!! .. we see any of these TFL guys opting out / subbin out etc and woah nellie think its on ..
only other thing is if Mizz is hanging tough in a close game they have a true ACE FG kicker .. 90% this year 11/13 40-50yds .. 3/3 50+ .. legit weapon that can stack points on drives that would otherwise be duds .. Army rarely kicks FG's kicker is 5/7 though 1 att / 1 miss from 40+ ..
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ARMY / MIZZ .. def leaning to Army. not played yet but here's some notes .. wouldn't touch Mizz, maybe in game, prob have a play on this one somewhere ..
Recall first that Army bowl game vs Houston ... Clayton Tune's like 3rd or 4th game and they were off a real big conf champ game vs Memp and he played pretty well given he was replacing D'Eriq King ... Applewhite basically w a mutiny on his hands led by Ed Oliver, obvi he sat that game out as did many others .. Tune is a good leader but he wasn't ready for what Army was dishing out and got his teeth kicked in .. Army w 10 sacks in that game .. I see an 8 sack game in 2010 vs Rutgers but otherwise nothing even close to that .. I def get the feeling again here although I doubt Mizzooo has the any real toxic locker room probs just a team that's been thru the meatgrinder once again .. But yeah if I'm one of Mizzoo's numerous 'questionable' players I'm probably not interested in healing up quick for this one ..
I did see Tyler Badie was practicing and expected to play .. woulda been a death knell if he was out, 26 touches per game, had 42 vs Ark .. Think no chance coach will work him to death trying to win this one even though last bowl in 2018 guys excited my guess is coach needs to motivate the roster if they want to win its not gunna be on Badie's back .. just my guess but think lucky if he gets to whatever his ssn low is show off for NFL scouts and start testing the roster for next year.. other RB's under 400yds combined vs his 1600 ..
As far as the QB sitch .. Drinkwitz sayin “100% open competition.”.. 3 QB's practice reps w the first team too on the QB situation “Whoever we feel like gives us the best chance to win and move our football team is going to play in the bowl game and so, we have a little bit of time for that competition to develop and play out.” .. Bazelak been playin 3 yrs . substantially all snaps in '20 and '21 .. Drink not sure who his starter is huh .. yeah sounds alot like open competition for next year and think we see at least 2 w meaningful reps, if neither has a hot hand maybe all 3 .. def gotta get Brady Cook some looks just based on what he did vs UGA and maybe Drink rolls w him if they're in striking distance late .. maybe Baddie says he wants to keep playin? .. idk .. if things aren't going great for Mizz then would say deeper down the roster they will go . also note that Drink is not one to just kill the clock late even down big .. seen at least a few times UGA this year Bama LY he tacked a real late TD .. sounds like he's irked quite a few coaches by not falling into line late in games ..
Besides service academies this is really the kinda opponent Army lives for .. SEC P5 .. Armed Services Bowl .. great way to keep branding themselves as TOTAL DANGEROUS BADAZZES .. really like how Army has been quick striking teams, hit their H1/Q1 TT Overs a few times this year .. def a team that will keep piling on you if you let them and as mentioned Drink will play into that too .. hence the pretty huge total makes sense .. get there idk ..
Would note Mizz has quite a few guys on D bagging big non-sack TFL numbers and need them because only way they stop Army is get them in 3rd and longs .. Mizz giving up 5 y/rush .. adjust out sacks / pure rush its 6.3 y/carry on the year .. adjust out run TFL's and just yer run of the mill pos yard rush is 7.2 .. holy sh!!!!t!!! .. we see any of these TFL guys opting out / subbin out etc and woah nellie think its on ..
only other thing is if Mizz is hanging tough in a close game they have a true ACE FG kicker .. 90% this year 11/13 40-50yds .. 3/3 50+ .. legit weapon that can stack points on drives that would otherwise be duds .. Army rarely kicks FG's kicker is 5/7 though 1 att / 1 miss from 40+ ..
SMALLER KENTUCKY -2.5 Just gunna say the Iowa we saw in the conf champ game was the Iowa we saw all year .. UK does have a problem with turnovers and yeah that can sink us here but the real meat of the play is Hawkeyes offense shouldn't be able to keep the chains moving .. rumor also Goodson might be out.. that would be devastating as the only real credible rusher on the team but I don't think it matters either way, too many ways for UK to move the chains and think 17 is the max Iowa can get here .. went Bridge Special with UK-2.5/U44.5 as well for small bucks too ..
BRIDGE PLAY
KENTUCKY -3
Upgraded smaller to full BP w the news on news Goodson is out .. market responded w half a point .. Saw some advanced stat folks had a chart showing Goodson was the lowest rated P5 RB in terms of whatever their point value added per play metric .. that's where advanced stats kinda gets it wrong because he's a quality RB on the most unimaginative offense in CFB .. Ferentz's son running since 17 but been a dud for years .. fan base has to be wondering what coulda been 2015 perfect reg ssn and trip to the playoff spoiled in B10 champ game losing 13-16 .. 2019 lose 3 games by 14 pts total offense avg about 13 pts in those losses .. last year lose to Purdue 20-24 and NU 20-21 in first two games then blow everyone else out .. this year lose to Purdue 7-24, Wisco 3-27, Mich 3-42 .. think were spotting a trend here .. Lack of any offense has killed these guys .. Goodson combined with +Turnovers in my view is the only possible way they were gunna keep drives moving in this game .. Kelly-Martin's injury had him sidelined last 6 games .. has dressed for two but saw no action .. tough ask to plug him in and get 20 rushes .. current backup has a couple games w 10 carries .. QB sitch with Petras and Padilla is not good they avg about 50% passing and while they can have a decent outting vs MD, Co.St or Kent St this one's a really big ask ..
Haven't heard much news outta UK .. Jordan Wright and KD Mcdaniel out at DE but werent really the stars of that position .. would sting more if Weaver / Paschal were out .. they get BIG NT McCall back, the good OL, Coach signed an extension and while there might have been hopes of making a leap to a NY6 bowl its still a new years day bowl for a program that really needs to be happy when they get there and gotta be feeling good gettin their mojo back by stompin out a pretty good Ville team .. toldja they would .. We did see UK totally dominate NC State last year in the bowl game thru H1 .. NC couldn't get anything going but only up 13-zip only to watch these guys dick around all H2 and lose my -2.5 line by a hook giving up a meaningless TD and 2xp after numerous numerous penalties .. woulda been a monster day .. Thats kinda how betting on Terry 'Dumb As Sh!t' Wilson went all LY and pretty much his whole career and my hope is with a good and smart and competitive QB like Levis he will close this game out late and hopefully not throw picks which has been a prob this year ..
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Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
SMALLER KENTUCKY -2.5 Just gunna say the Iowa we saw in the conf champ game was the Iowa we saw all year .. UK does have a problem with turnovers and yeah that can sink us here but the real meat of the play is Hawkeyes offense shouldn't be able to keep the chains moving .. rumor also Goodson might be out.. that would be devastating as the only real credible rusher on the team but I don't think it matters either way, too many ways for UK to move the chains and think 17 is the max Iowa can get here .. went Bridge Special with UK-2.5/U44.5 as well for small bucks too ..
BRIDGE PLAY
KENTUCKY -3
Upgraded smaller to full BP w the news on news Goodson is out .. market responded w half a point .. Saw some advanced stat folks had a chart showing Goodson was the lowest rated P5 RB in terms of whatever their point value added per play metric .. that's where advanced stats kinda gets it wrong because he's a quality RB on the most unimaginative offense in CFB .. Ferentz's son running since 17 but been a dud for years .. fan base has to be wondering what coulda been 2015 perfect reg ssn and trip to the playoff spoiled in B10 champ game losing 13-16 .. 2019 lose 3 games by 14 pts total offense avg about 13 pts in those losses .. last year lose to Purdue 20-24 and NU 20-21 in first two games then blow everyone else out .. this year lose to Purdue 7-24, Wisco 3-27, Mich 3-42 .. think were spotting a trend here .. Lack of any offense has killed these guys .. Goodson combined with +Turnovers in my view is the only possible way they were gunna keep drives moving in this game .. Kelly-Martin's injury had him sidelined last 6 games .. has dressed for two but saw no action .. tough ask to plug him in and get 20 rushes .. current backup has a couple games w 10 carries .. QB sitch with Petras and Padilla is not good they avg about 50% passing and while they can have a decent outting vs MD, Co.St or Kent St this one's a really big ask ..
Haven't heard much news outta UK .. Jordan Wright and KD Mcdaniel out at DE but werent really the stars of that position .. would sting more if Weaver / Paschal were out .. they get BIG NT McCall back, the good OL, Coach signed an extension and while there might have been hopes of making a leap to a NY6 bowl its still a new years day bowl for a program that really needs to be happy when they get there and gotta be feeling good gettin their mojo back by stompin out a pretty good Ville team .. toldja they would .. We did see UK totally dominate NC State last year in the bowl game thru H1 .. NC couldn't get anything going but only up 13-zip only to watch these guys dick around all H2 and lose my -2.5 line by a hook giving up a meaningless TD and 2xp after numerous numerous penalties .. woulda been a monster day .. Thats kinda how betting on Terry 'Dumb As Sh!t' Wilson went all LY and pretty much his whole career and my hope is with a good and smart and competitive QB like Levis he will close this game out late and hopefully not throw picks which has been a prob this year ..
To be more articulate and succinct on Sparky. 0-7 in last 7 vacation bowl spots, only one game was single digits. Program and roster in turmoil. Coach not a disciplinarian by any stretch..
But if you'd like to back them power to ya
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@Bridge1
To be more articulate and succinct on Sparky. 0-7 in last 7 vacation bowl spots, only one game was single digits. Program and roster in turmoil. Coach not a disciplinarian by any stretch..
I think we beat duke that time.. didnt we or was that the 8th bowl game ago? haha .. yeah I'll leave the thinking to you on that one .. no play for me, haven't even thought about touching it.. Can't wait till we land Jake 'The Snake' Rattler and get back in the Natty hunt ..
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@BubbaGumpShrimp
I think we beat duke that time.. didnt we or was that the 8th bowl game ago? haha .. yeah I'll leave the thinking to you on that one .. no play for me, haven't even thought about touching it.. Can't wait till we land Jake 'The Snake' Rattler and get back in the Natty hunt ..
WILL ANDERSON - 80-1 ... finished 5th .. 2nd most 1st place votes .. no it wasn't anywhere close to being close even 2nd place Hutchinson was ~40% of the what Brice Young had end... needed a little different ending to the year, young not beat UGA and didn't help that we had Aiden Hutchinson shoot into the running right at the end there that was a killer .. think only so many voters out there would have voted for a defender can't split those votes .. could say the same for Hutch, much better shot for him w Anderson not in the running but still woulda come up way short w the Brice Young UGA win scenario .. but was the right idea and got decent odds to run w it and weren't at least far off from taking a hundo to win 8,000 bet into something that maybe woulda landed a 10-1 off a hedge .. meh .. next time gents ..
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HEISMAN
WILL ANDERSON - 80-1 ... finished 5th .. 2nd most 1st place votes .. no it wasn't anywhere close to being close even 2nd place Hutchinson was ~40% of the what Brice Young had end... needed a little different ending to the year, young not beat UGA and didn't help that we had Aiden Hutchinson shoot into the running right at the end there that was a killer .. think only so many voters out there would have voted for a defender can't split those votes .. could say the same for Hutch, much better shot for him w Anderson not in the running but still woulda come up way short w the Brice Young UGA win scenario .. but was the right idea and got decent odds to run w it and weren't at least far off from taking a hundo to win 8,000 bet into something that maybe woulda landed a 10-1 off a hedge .. meh .. next time gents ..
BYU -8.5 GEORGIA -7 KENTUCKY -3 APP STATE -2.5 EAST CAROLINA +3 MICHIGAN STATE +3 UTAH / OHIO STATE OVER 65
ADD: ARMY -3 .. my bad meant to post yesterday when it dipped .. guess 3.5 now, don't hate it there either.. waiting to see the TT's and what the weather gunna look like .. hoping for Army TT Over 29ish ..
SMALLER
WASH STATE +3 MICHIGAN STATE +4 VIRGINIA / SMU UNDER 72.5
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BRIDGE BOWL ROUNDUP
BRIDGE PLAY
BYU -8.5 GEORGIA -7 KENTUCKY -3 APP STATE -2.5 EAST CAROLINA +3 MICHIGAN STATE +3 UTAH / OHIO STATE OVER 65
ADD: ARMY -3 .. my bad meant to post yesterday when it dipped .. guess 3.5 now, don't hate it there either.. waiting to see the TT's and what the weather gunna look like .. hoping for Army TT Over 29ish ..
SMALLER
WASH STATE +3 MICHIGAN STATE +4 VIRGINIA / SMU UNDER 72.5
BRIDGE PLAY BYU -8.5 Looking for teams that will show up if playing this early on .. heres one i think wr can count on.. Really too bad its one team that deserves shots at bigger power 5 competition and of course that means bowl idiots will saddle them with 3rd place CUSA teams that have at least one big name Chris Moll hitting the portal .. Anyway .. BYU likes to win and thats easily the most important thing when pickin bowl games. good luck!
See its down to -7.
Anything you know about this?
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Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
BRIDGE PLAY BYU -8.5 Looking for teams that will show up if playing this early on .. heres one i think wr can count on.. Really too bad its one team that deserves shots at bigger power 5 competition and of course that means bowl idiots will saddle them with 3rd place CUSA teams that have at least one big name Chris Moll hitting the portal .. Anyway .. BYU likes to win and thats easily the most important thing when pickin bowl games. good luck!
I jumped the gun ... hit it early and just wanted to grab BYU, i hit again when it dipped to 6.5 but already posted the play so first bet I def got a crappy line .. I shuda known better all the underdog lines are getting scrunched down all year, nothing diff here, I shuda known better and UAB obvi with a level of talent they can hang with anyone in G5 .. Besides that I think its just speculation .. bookies obvi comfortable putting out the line at 8.5 but some speculation will BYU be less interested since they were hoping for NY6 w Cincy off to the playoff .. seemed like a possibility and definitely deserved .. but then don't even get a P5 team is kindof a downer.. certainly woulda been more fitting for them to play an Auburn or another step up in competition after rampaging thru the PAC / beating the champ there .. theres a few injuries too James Empey on the OL couple others are questionable and they were pretty banged up in their last game vs USC and trojans able to run the ball on these guys is maybe a reason to think UAB will get traction here .
those are reasons to expect the line to scrunch down.. this really comes down to whether UAB will have an effective rush on these guys and some effective complimentary passing and will BYU show up healthy and ready to beat these guys .. i think so but its bowls so never know I think both show up ready to rock .. BYU better ..
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@darren3472
I jumped the gun ... hit it early and just wanted to grab BYU, i hit again when it dipped to 6.5 but already posted the play so first bet I def got a crappy line .. I shuda known better all the underdog lines are getting scrunched down all year, nothing diff here, I shuda known better and UAB obvi with a level of talent they can hang with anyone in G5 .. Besides that I think its just speculation .. bookies obvi comfortable putting out the line at 8.5 but some speculation will BYU be less interested since they were hoping for NY6 w Cincy off to the playoff .. seemed like a possibility and definitely deserved .. but then don't even get a P5 team is kindof a downer.. certainly woulda been more fitting for them to play an Auburn or another step up in competition after rampaging thru the PAC / beating the champ there .. theres a few injuries too James Empey on the OL couple others are questionable and they were pretty banged up in their last game vs USC and trojans able to run the ball on these guys is maybe a reason to think UAB will get traction here .
those are reasons to expect the line to scrunch down.. this really comes down to whether UAB will have an effective rush on these guys and some effective complimentary passing and will BYU show up healthy and ready to beat these guys .. i think so but its bowls so never know I think both show up ready to rock .. BYU better ..
Seems like we shuda known this by now, plenty of 'buckeye insiders' out there woulda leaked news if they weren't at practice i believe first bowl one was last Friday .. Saw Stroud is not getting involved to persuade them, seems like big deal made of an honest answer that every other QB would say since its not their career on the line .. idk we'll see .. line down from 7.5 to 6 seems like speculation move they won't play .. I think the line / total at this point is baking in very limited snaps if they play .. if we see the line/total move a few points after confirm they are out I'd look to bet against the line move .. still have Ninjigba in the top spot, Ruckert and some young guys lit up in limited action and really the run game is the bread and butter .. Henderson and Williams 7y/carry .. might play again if it drops to 63 or better or maybe wait for in game, play off a slow start ..
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@TRAIN69
Seems like we shuda known this by now, plenty of 'buckeye insiders' out there woulda leaked news if they weren't at practice i believe first bowl one was last Friday .. Saw Stroud is not getting involved to persuade them, seems like big deal made of an honest answer that every other QB would say since its not their career on the line .. idk we'll see .. line down from 7.5 to 6 seems like speculation move they won't play .. I think the line / total at this point is baking in very limited snaps if they play .. if we see the line/total move a few points after confirm they are out I'd look to bet against the line move .. still have Ninjigba in the top spot, Ruckert and some young guys lit up in limited action and really the run game is the bread and butter .. Henderson and Williams 7y/carry .. might play again if it drops to 63 or better or maybe wait for in game, play off a slow start ..
Hit a few today / yesterday .. Bowl team totals might be as uncertain as it gets but one reason or another like these where I grabbed em .. Max played is at -115 most are -110 or better ..
IOWA UNDER 21.5 Goodson out and there goes about half yer offense and best shot to extend drives on 3rd and short or medium .. might need a defensive TD's or some other big UK mistakes plus QB's to be playing their best game to hit this total .. already betting UK to lay the wood on these guys ..
VA.TECH UNDER 26.5 List of guys missing from this team is long all the WR's out, numerous others all over the roster vs a Maryland team where if they can't get it up for this game then might as well get outta football they really weren't supposed to make a bowl this year .. VT's HC fired out and just have to see what the offensive formula is here .. think they MUST get backup QB's in the game somehow and prob gunna see alot of 2's and 3's in most of the other units this game ..
OK.STATE UNDER 21.5 I did hear Warren is practicing obvi good if he's out but either way think its tough sledding for the Pokes here .. Freeman former Cincy DC has done great w the D all year and plenty of time for the D to adapt to life w out Hamilton now .. Unclear if the offense can figure things out w out Kyrin Williams but think we count on this D to show up for their coach here in first game as HC ..
GA.STATE OVER 27.5 Just think they're better than Ball State, got a couple good RB's and defense solid vs the run should find ways to get the ball back quick .. models showing Panthers as a much bigger fav here ..
APP STATE OVER 34.5 App's offense should have no probs here, Hills w their best corner out .. don't think it was gunna matter much .. WKY's style of play, super fast and going for it on 4th almost anywhere on the field creates possessions and often very short fields .. Best D WKY has played so might get a few easy shots here ..
UTSA Q1 UNDER 6.5 Always off to a fast start but SDSU not only makes that tough but might be better on offense this go round burn some clock and RR'ers bad news with McCormack out and he's been THE GUY there every game going on 3 years now .. we'll see what it looks like w out him w lotta guys that can get pressure on a scrambler like Harris .. and SDSU's O might have it a little easier in H1 with best RR'rs DB Wisdom out for Targeting last game .. TT's for Q1 on DK were 6.5 UTSA -105 and 3.5 SDSU.. quite a disparity early on before the TT's even out for the half and game .. could see UTSA really flopping in this one off the conf champ game plus the best offensive player out .. SDSU punter also an Ace can flip the field from anywhere and that really helps our odds here ..
Was waiting on Army TT .. 30.5 want to see if 29 or better shows up w the total dropping but seein the lines move now to -4's so doubt we'll get there ..
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TEAM TOTALS
Hit a few today / yesterday .. Bowl team totals might be as uncertain as it gets but one reason or another like these where I grabbed em .. Max played is at -115 most are -110 or better ..
IOWA UNDER 21.5 Goodson out and there goes about half yer offense and best shot to extend drives on 3rd and short or medium .. might need a defensive TD's or some other big UK mistakes plus QB's to be playing their best game to hit this total .. already betting UK to lay the wood on these guys ..
VA.TECH UNDER 26.5 List of guys missing from this team is long all the WR's out, numerous others all over the roster vs a Maryland team where if they can't get it up for this game then might as well get outta football they really weren't supposed to make a bowl this year .. VT's HC fired out and just have to see what the offensive formula is here .. think they MUST get backup QB's in the game somehow and prob gunna see alot of 2's and 3's in most of the other units this game ..
OK.STATE UNDER 21.5 I did hear Warren is practicing obvi good if he's out but either way think its tough sledding for the Pokes here .. Freeman former Cincy DC has done great w the D all year and plenty of time for the D to adapt to life w out Hamilton now .. Unclear if the offense can figure things out w out Kyrin Williams but think we count on this D to show up for their coach here in first game as HC ..
GA.STATE OVER 27.5 Just think they're better than Ball State, got a couple good RB's and defense solid vs the run should find ways to get the ball back quick .. models showing Panthers as a much bigger fav here ..
APP STATE OVER 34.5 App's offense should have no probs here, Hills w their best corner out .. don't think it was gunna matter much .. WKY's style of play, super fast and going for it on 4th almost anywhere on the field creates possessions and often very short fields .. Best D WKY has played so might get a few easy shots here ..
UTSA Q1 UNDER 6.5 Always off to a fast start but SDSU not only makes that tough but might be better on offense this go round burn some clock and RR'ers bad news with McCormack out and he's been THE GUY there every game going on 3 years now .. we'll see what it looks like w out him w lotta guys that can get pressure on a scrambler like Harris .. and SDSU's O might have it a little easier in H1 with best RR'rs DB Wisdom out for Targeting last game .. TT's for Q1 on DK were 6.5 UTSA -105 and 3.5 SDSU.. quite a disparity early on before the TT's even out for the half and game .. could see UTSA really flopping in this one off the conf champ game plus the best offensive player out .. SDSU punter also an Ace can flip the field from anywhere and that really helps our odds here ..
Was waiting on Army TT .. 30.5 want to see if 29 or better shows up w the total dropping but seein the lines move now to -4's so doubt we'll get there ..
I'm also leaning App St now that it's below 3. I like BYU but I'm a little hesitant to give the points. I may tease it down to ML with a parlay or something...BOL this bowl season!
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I'm also leaning App St now that it's below 3. I like BYU but I'm a little hesitant to give the points. I may tease it down to ML with a parlay or something...BOL this bowl season!
I'm obvi sour on my BYU pick because of the bad line but hit again -6.5 and we'll see .. totally agree I might be steppin into one here layin a TD in a bowl game lol clearly a few gamblers have let the books know they were over their ski's a bit on that 8.5 line but bookies know where to put things and scrunched all the lines down for bowl season seems they were confident BYU was gunna show up strong ..... def short handed for that USC game and have some injuries TE Rex, OL Empey and couple others and pretty rugged season the bowl break was much needed ..
I did hear UAB insider rumor they might be w out McBride .. coach says he's in we'll see .. Stanley their #3 already hit the portal so would get tough if DEBO is out or limited .. idk hearing the talking heads recently saying BYU is not excited to play this game when they after hoping they'd get the NY6 spot is a bit laughable.. pretty sure they said that last year when they were hopeful for a playoff spot and instead of pouting and transferring and opting out of the boca bowl they sent IsoPPP++ to the next dimension .. maybe they're diff this year idk we'll see!!!
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@DrStrangelove
I'm obvi sour on my BYU pick because of the bad line but hit again -6.5 and we'll see .. totally agree I might be steppin into one here layin a TD in a bowl game lol clearly a few gamblers have let the books know they were over their ski's a bit on that 8.5 line but bookies know where to put things and scrunched all the lines down for bowl season seems they were confident BYU was gunna show up strong ..... def short handed for that USC game and have some injuries TE Rex, OL Empey and couple others and pretty rugged season the bowl break was much needed ..
I did hear UAB insider rumor they might be w out McBride .. coach says he's in we'll see .. Stanley their #3 already hit the portal so would get tough if DEBO is out or limited .. idk hearing the talking heads recently saying BYU is not excited to play this game when they after hoping they'd get the NY6 spot is a bit laughable.. pretty sure they said that last year when they were hopeful for a playoff spot and instead of pouting and transferring and opting out of the boca bowl they sent IsoPPP++ to the next dimension .. maybe they're diff this year idk we'll see!!!
I know what you know buddy .. i see 19 att's this year best stuff vs NMSU in super garbage time .. they sure didn't go out of their way to get him many reps.. maybe he's good idk not much to go on ..
Nevada is way worse off than that though .. line moved 12 points!!!! .. coaches out, 3rd QB xferred too .. haven't seen Doubs declare or xfer but looks like 180 receiving is still on the roster besides BIG Romeo .. starting LB and Safety xferred .... backup LB .. wouldn't surprise me if more decisions are made .. I think the RB's are actually not bad both can run and catch so would expect more short passing / running outta the wolfpack here unless cox shows up and is just throwin dimes to doubs all day .. could happen, W.Mich defense is garbage but man if they can't romp these guys on a big home stage in detroit then just fire that coach now ..
I do have MW as top to bottom wayyyy better than the MAC as usual but maybe more so this year than normal so I wouldn't bite into W.MIchigan at this point .. clue 1 was co.state going to toledo and romping them bad .. Wyoming was romping NIU at their place before just a miraculous Husky comeback .. cowboys still won then beat the CRAP outta ball state the next week at home ... MAC got nearly turned upside down this year and just inexplicably .. Miami OH, Kent State and NIU the best teams, wouldn't call it a formula for likely post ssn success but idk we'll see..
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@themaceo
I know what you know buddy .. i see 19 att's this year best stuff vs NMSU in super garbage time .. they sure didn't go out of their way to get him many reps.. maybe he's good idk not much to go on ..
Nevada is way worse off than that though .. line moved 12 points!!!! .. coaches out, 3rd QB xferred too .. haven't seen Doubs declare or xfer but looks like 180 receiving is still on the roster besides BIG Romeo .. starting LB and Safety xferred .... backup LB .. wouldn't surprise me if more decisions are made .. I think the RB's are actually not bad both can run and catch so would expect more short passing / running outta the wolfpack here unless cox shows up and is just throwin dimes to doubs all day .. could happen, W.Mich defense is garbage but man if they can't romp these guys on a big home stage in detroit then just fire that coach now ..
I do have MW as top to bottom wayyyy better than the MAC as usual but maybe more so this year than normal so I wouldn't bite into W.MIchigan at this point .. clue 1 was co.state going to toledo and romping them bad .. Wyoming was romping NIU at their place before just a miraculous Husky comeback .. cowboys still won then beat the CRAP outta ball state the next week at home ... MAC got nearly turned upside down this year and just inexplicably .. Miami OH, Kent State and NIU the best teams, wouldn't call it a formula for likely post ssn success but idk we'll see..
Auburn been busy falling apart with latest blow 1st round CB off to NFL school, 2 best OLs, Tank and #3 RB Shivers went portal bunch of others .. tough to trust Holgersen in a bowl .. bad record and total no show last year vs Hawaii in their back yard .. albeit pretty down year / covid romped them bad but here they are getting invited to play a big SEC team .. quite a few G5'ers would be happy to trade spots with them .. year obvi didn't end that great but it didn't end in a total mutiny either or w a bunch of guys bailing out, at least not yet anyway .. Again can't compare to last year but Tigers profile heading into this one is looking alot like what we were seeing heading into their 60 minute throttling last year vs N'western .. small stab ..
0
SMALLER
HOUSTON +3
Auburn been busy falling apart with latest blow 1st round CB off to NFL school, 2 best OLs, Tank and #3 RB Shivers went portal bunch of others .. tough to trust Holgersen in a bowl .. bad record and total no show last year vs Hawaii in their back yard .. albeit pretty down year / covid romped them bad but here they are getting invited to play a big SEC team .. quite a few G5'ers would be happy to trade spots with them .. year obvi didn't end that great but it didn't end in a total mutiny either or w a bunch of guys bailing out, at least not yet anyway .. Again can't compare to last year but Tigers profile heading into this one is looking alot like what we were seeing heading into their 60 minute throttling last year vs N'western .. small stab ..
BC's defense been losing guys since mid season and looks like they'll be pretty thin at LB and in the secondary .. this is the moment ECU has been waiting for and don't think we see a disappointment .. Def a little worried taking em +3 with Jerko and now Trae Berry at TE playing but offense should have some early shots and def the kinda spot you'd expect Mike Houston to try and get his guys off to a fast start .. had to lay -115 on this one .. I hate that ..
LOUISVILLE Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
Took this at +110 .. besides Air Force's D being really solid recall the style of offense they deployed vs Wash State in the bowl a couple years ago .. 4 yd runs, burn all 40 seconds and don't let them see the ball .. think they burned nearly an entire quarter on one drive that game .. maybe we see it maybe not but Calhoun knows how to plan for these bowl games and that's the strategy I'd go with here .. always a risk cunningham breaks an easy one but very possible they end up with only one shot to land a TD in the first quarter..
AUBURN Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
Got +110 odds on this one too and with both offenses really run heavy we could see either team open up the game burning a bit of clock and Houston's D should hold their own here .. Pace aside think Auburn has so many guys out now Bigsby and best of the OL opting out and even seeing Finley saying he "should" be fine for the bowl which sounds more like "we'll see wouldn't be up for it if game was today and might transfer before kickoff" ... no lock of course its Q1 TT under a TD but getting odds so think its worth a shot here ..
0
Q1 TEAM TOTALS:
EAST CAROLINA Q1 TT OVER 3.5
BC's defense been losing guys since mid season and looks like they'll be pretty thin at LB and in the secondary .. this is the moment ECU has been waiting for and don't think we see a disappointment .. Def a little worried taking em +3 with Jerko and now Trae Berry at TE playing but offense should have some early shots and def the kinda spot you'd expect Mike Houston to try and get his guys off to a fast start .. had to lay -115 on this one .. I hate that ..
LOUISVILLE Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
Took this at +110 .. besides Air Force's D being really solid recall the style of offense they deployed vs Wash State in the bowl a couple years ago .. 4 yd runs, burn all 40 seconds and don't let them see the ball .. think they burned nearly an entire quarter on one drive that game .. maybe we see it maybe not but Calhoun knows how to plan for these bowl games and that's the strategy I'd go with here .. always a risk cunningham breaks an easy one but very possible they end up with only one shot to land a TD in the first quarter..
AUBURN Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
Got +110 odds on this one too and with both offenses really run heavy we could see either team open up the game burning a bit of clock and Houston's D should hold their own here .. Pace aside think Auburn has so many guys out now Bigsby and best of the OL opting out and even seeing Finley saying he "should" be fine for the bowl which sounds more like "we'll see wouldn't be up for it if game was today and might transfer before kickoff" ... no lock of course its Q1 TT under a TD but getting odds so think its worth a shot here ..
I think it could!!!... lol .. and if you shoot me $59.99 and I'll tell you if it REALLY COULD BE!!!! lol .. I got a few bucks on over, thought this was gunna be one of those middling bonanzas like BYU/UCF last year where total goes to the moon .. esp after yesterday .. I got App state TT and think they ultimately win .. maybe wait for in game, we see WKY falls behind I think they'll take some huge risks to get back in the game .. And not too concerned they replace Zappe late in the game, they could but remember he's goin for history here think its 5 TD's for the record, 4 to tie .. im sure that's a mark both the HC/OC/QB wouldn't mind taking away from this game even if they lose and total over for sure if he gets there is my guess .. just tough to see a situation outside of injury where they either slow their pace and or pull him from the game before then and total goes under .. have to be a sure thing loss and no shot at the record or sure thing win and he's got the record so like 35-zip or 35-7 one way or another seems unlikely .. doesn't mean total for sure lands for sure even if we get the Zappe going for record situation but think we have an ace in added motivation to keep scoring from a really dangerous quick striking team that's realllly tough to put away and that should keep both teams pushing for points here ..
0
@LoveCFB1_
I think it could!!!... lol .. and if you shoot me $59.99 and I'll tell you if it REALLY COULD BE!!!! lol .. I got a few bucks on over, thought this was gunna be one of those middling bonanzas like BYU/UCF last year where total goes to the moon .. esp after yesterday .. I got App state TT and think they ultimately win .. maybe wait for in game, we see WKY falls behind I think they'll take some huge risks to get back in the game .. And not too concerned they replace Zappe late in the game, they could but remember he's goin for history here think its 5 TD's for the record, 4 to tie .. im sure that's a mark both the HC/OC/QB wouldn't mind taking away from this game even if they lose and total over for sure if he gets there is my guess .. just tough to see a situation outside of injury where they either slow their pace and or pull him from the game before then and total goes under .. have to be a sure thing loss and no shot at the record or sure thing win and he's got the record so like 35-zip or 35-7 one way or another seems unlikely .. doesn't mean total for sure lands for sure even if we get the Zappe going for record situation but think we have an ace in added motivation to keep scoring from a really dangerous quick striking team that's realllly tough to put away and that should keep both teams pushing for points here ..
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