BRIDGE BOWLS

@Bridge1

 Great capping .... how was the regular season for you...... all those games to choose from each week ......

@Bridge1

Nicely done much respect mah man 

Happy New Years 

@Coben

 See 1st post .. BP's were good ... bowl season helped true up the smaller plays and TT's ... 

@Macwestie1

 Thx Mac .. happy new year! 

@Bridge1

 Thank you for referring ..... killed it on the bowls, do you think made easier by the guys who pulled out, plus coaches going elsewhere etc., I found it a tough season overall, unpredictable, teams turning up one week, not the next, which is always a factor of course...

Do you play the NFL or spreads to tight?

@Coben

Yeah i was watching the opt out and "injury" and that kinda news closely .. but also really gotta consider conference strength and also whether the teams would just show up wanting to win the game .. think that understanding led to quite a few good targets and tried to hit before the lines moved significantly .. and sometimes created the 'everyone's on this team' like W.Mich, K.State, Mich State, Wake and didn't really matter how much the line moved, K-State moved like 2 TD's .. shoulda moved another 2 TD's lol .. but then Army got in early at -3 and folks are falling over themselves layin a TD and didn't quite work out even for me .. 

Think the year was tricky, had to throw out what we 'knew' about teams from covid year and consider what happens with a ton of super seniors and teams also more efficient w their rosters able to get rid of dud scholarship players and replace them thru the portal .. lotta teams that looked good in 2020 even w a ton of guys back were wayyy overrated and some were really not even good .. UNC, IA State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Miami, Oregon, Florida, USC, Indy, Wash, LSU, Texas is over half your pre-ssn top 20, couple of them stuck around but none were anything you'd want to bet on lol .. too many others were all of a sudden much improved and also had quality depth esp on D where teams usually struggling to find quality starters now had decent backups to rotate in...  total unders were killing it for weeks before books adjusted .. also think home field was easy to overlook esp early on home dogs cleaned up huge too .. made picking the best sounding team from the preview mag a pretty bad strategy .. 

Don't watch NFL .. boring .. 

@Bridge1

 Thank you for your insights, agree many over rated teams where there were high expectations and were average at best, all the teams you mention in that bucket, I think the officials in College get it right pretty much, whereas in the NFL some dreadful calls which leave you scratching your head and are game changers.. interesting you find the pros boring, many of my friends here find it the same

Lets hope GA are on song next week

Thanks again!!

@Bridge1

Well said your last word in post#180 is so true NFL in comparison to college  speaks volume BORING 

I hope the National Championship game is a competitive game to watch either way but with this pandemic & variant who knows what available players will show up

So Georgia & over huh? I lean the same, but Kirby vs Saban just makes my stomach turn....

Awesome season and bowls brother!!

@Macwestie1

Yeah would be great to escape w out a 'situation' rearing before the game .. kudos to LSU thought they were a goner for sure .. 

@TRAIN69

Yeah im definitely put more money down on the total over than my confidence level would suggest ... UGA -2.5 is a smaller than my normal 'smaller' bet ... think we can count on this being a really sharp lines and unlikely I'm gunna be sharper than Vegas' AI-HANDICAPPER-5000-SUPERBRAIN models on this one .. Above all else my view is offenses are just more capable at this level than defenses and neither side gunna have a vanilla game plan here so here .. neither team ran the ball well last game and ended up w 1000 yds of offense so a total that's a couple points below average I am just kinda auto lean to seeing some value on the over .. 

The death knell for the over is if bama struggles scoring or TD's turn into FG's and they fall behind .. Could see UGA turn the volume way down on offense if they are up a couple scores and smelling a win and only hope then is Kirby remembers what happened when he was up 13-zip a few years ago and up 10 a few weeks ago ... if we expect regression on things that were kinda oddballish last meeting then have to think both teams run the ball better but also also doubt Williams gets all those jailbreak TD's again which made the O stats go bonkers ..  UGA should find ways to get pressures and Bama OL might even struggle this game we'll see .. UGA had a definite weakness in pass coverage, even Mich landed a few big shots w kinda sub optimal WR corps and there were a few just bad drops that coulda kept drives alive .. not many other good pass teams on UGA's schedule to compare but Tenn went 62% for 330 2TD's, even Kentucky landed 75% but sleddin real tough at 1.5 y/carry! .. also UGA clearly able to drive it on bama last game just came up short in the RZ a few times so could def get more scoring finishing drives off .. cook and pickins legit receiving weapons too .. have to hope they can spread it around more not just try zingin it to Bowers ..

anyway .. alot of different outcomes we could end up seein here, tryin to think what an in-game strategy might be but its mostly if Bama can score think total over has a great shot .. 

@Bridge1

 Just a quick note on UGA's pass defense against Bama in the SECCG. William Poole made his first start ever at the STAR position due to Chris Smith not being 100%; UGA played Smith exclusively at safety as well. Smith is much better in the STAR than Poole and he's back to 100%. I'm not sure there's a DB in CFB that can truly shut down Williams but Smith's health being better and sliding him down to cover the slot position should help quite a bit. UGA can't let Williams go for nearly 200yds again or it'll be another long day. That starts up front creating more pressure as well...

Good Lord Man, I’m certain you haven’t left a stone unturned!  Great analysis, best of luck and thanks for the plays this season. 

Man, That Bama-Georgia over under hasn’t mover a inch since it opened. 

@Bridge1

@LoveCFB1_

Yeah dude .. sharp lines ... Maybe they see both run games get kinda shut down last time and think that likely carries over into this one for at least one team .. if so it's not tough to imagine most games tend to fall below 52 .. UGA had 3 drives eat up 1/3 of the game resulting in 3 points .. that happens again and Bama dicks around on a couple drives too then we'll only have 30 mins to score all those points .. that would be an uphill climb! 

Part of me likes this game to go to a shoot out. Last score wins kind of game… So hard to predict! 

@LoveCFB1_

Ha yeah .. im def leaning on my instincts about offenses being better at this level because there are just so many ways I could see this game going .. contrast this matchup w LY we had just the most EPIC rompin bama offense vs OSU D which was in really bad shape end of last year ... before that we had that LSU offense .. just gotta be real strong on offense if yer gunna win it all .. all the champ games gone over 60 points other than last UGA/Bama meeting .. semi's are more hit and miss w the totals but the winner's offense usually does its job 30+ pts .. so not many real defensive slug fest even in the semi's and even looking last week at bama / cincy tide just playin safe huge advantage running the ball and kinda helps keep their post-metchie game plan under wraps .. 

So we'll see .. could definitely see defenses make the better plays in this one..  think Clem / OSU semi was the last time we had 2 real defenses and was def heading under  before TL woke that offense up big time .. maybe no TL here but again think if we see a lull early on and algos start pumping that total down in the 40's think it might be go time on in-game .. hope there's still a solid stretch of offense .. 

SMALLER

MONTANA ST / NDSU OVER 41 

Having fun with a little bigger of the 'smaller' bets here for the FCS champ game since we had a really nice year that closed so well in bowl season... didn't see really any FCS this fall but did see a bit of MONT.ST in the playoffs and the new QB that took over in the playoffs has been a legit gamer with his legs and thrown more than a couple ABOSOLUTE DIMES and don't think its a misnomer .. the season starter quit the team because new guy was taking over and writing was on the wall and we see why absolutely rocked Sam HOO and South Dak State in B2B weeks and its not like they don't have the goods on D, both are really strong .. could say the spring/fall seasons finally caught up with them but wouldn't count these guys out at all .. 

NDSU reportedly gets back a couple OL's, the starting RB that got hurt in week 1 and Christian Watson back from a hamstring injury .. unclear to what level any or all of them play but really liked the other WR Bizon had vs JMU and adding Watson makes things really dynamic .. not to mention the run game is super stout w the FB being maybe the biggest big play threat out of the backfield .. also have former VT QB Quincy Patterson they bring when they need to just beast a first down .. the guys back from injury whether they contribute big plays or not will just spread a D more thin and bonus if we see Watson back on kick or punt returns because he's got NFL afterburners ..  

Total dropped down big think opened 48 .. makes sense .. NDSU has a knack of getting teams in a sleeper hold late in a game and just getting that clock down with minimal scoring .. but like the set up with the lower total and guys back .. theres quite a bit of offensive weaponry to render more/less ineffective .. think to hit this we need Mont State to get 14 at a min .. 17-21 obvi makes things all the more favorable for us .. Could very well hedge if we have a middle by H2 and see NDSU getting the ball and not real worried about running it up .. just have to hope in that situation we have some room to work with because Algos will be ready to give us a pretty small H2 total if the game is not going well for Mont State .. 

Other than that I got a few bucks on Montana State +9 just tailing TD21 when the line dropped .. also got Montana State 9-1 to win the championship, bet that after seeing new QB send Sam Houston home for the holidays ..  

Good luck!

SMALLER

MONTANA ST / NDSU OVER 41 

Said we need Montana State to score 14-17 here not get their do it all QB injured after 3 plays!!! .. wellllp, think its safe to say NDSU -9 or whatever it was after the injury was the lock of the century .. and it was only like -12.5 after their first TD .. ugh .. need a time machine .. but otherwise good pick, slick field similar to what we had in the FCS champ game in the spring, very similar .. QB also hurt on the first drive but either team get the ball in space and defenses had ALOT of trouble tackling .. conditions screwed up a few offensive plays here again but really kept defenses off balance ... NDSU able to PILEDRIVE the ball downhill at these guys just made it all the easier to bust a few big plays .. Welp, Money In Da Baaank!!! .. Seeya Monday!!!! 

Mr. Bridge, I’ve had the pleasure of reading your analysis on games this year. You might get burned from one game to another, but it’s not because you didn’t do your homework. Also, your patience is to be commended for weathering the drunken gamblers criticisms that bets his rent money. Your a stud. 

Bol tonight Bridge1

@vankiep_0007

 Thx VAN!!! YOU TOO!!!

BRIDGE PLAY

GEORGIA / BAMA OVER 52.5

SMALLER

GEORGIA -2.5 

PROPS .. 

I'm def not a prop master .. having fun w it if anything .. would say if I add up all the various prop numbers we got about 410 yds Bama (310 pass / 100 rush)  and 360 yds for UGA (250 pass / 110 rush) .. so propsters expecting a fairly low yardage game at least for these two and about 200 yds lower than last game .. not sure if that's quite equating to what we have on the team totals, consider ~14.5 yds / pt we get Bama wins 28-24 .. total 52 ... but 7 point diff from the spread .. 

Considering all that I think yer losing a bit of value taking some of the bama yards .. seems UGA's prop yds might be understated .. at least as far as what we think the spread dictates .. also think the rush yds might be a little low balled here too .. though to keep both these teams under 100 yds 2 games in a row.. not really taking my strategy but here's the PROPS I'm on:

CAM LATU OVER 14.5 REC YDS
BRIAN ROBINSON OVER 18.5 REC YDS
BILLINGSLY 1ST TD 25-1

All of these are predicated on Metchie being out and UGA will also have a plan for what to do with Williams ..should be some re-distribution in the receiving department and maybe get some good targets on the TE's and RB .. recall last year Naji Harris just a killer getting the ball out the backfield and think good chance we see BEAST Robinson get a few good targets this go-round .. Would like to take RB's to do better this go-round but meh .. good w/ what I got .. 

LETS GO!!! 

LETS GO DAWGS!!!

@LoveCFB1_

 Took the in game under 43.5…defense rules this game and Georgia offense taking the entire play clock to snap the ball. Should be easy cover.