BRIDGE BOWLS

Oh crap. BYU starting QB is out for the game. Romney starting. He can’t scramble like Hall.

@robtri

 When tf did that happen ? Wow might take uab live byu doesn’t have the defense they’ve had in recent years 

@robtri

 Also note BYU playing a few reserve players as starters in this game especially at CB and LB. They seem to be saving players for next season especially seeing them sit Hall, the QB. Onto the next bowl game I am afraid. 

@robtri

 Underdogs ruling the bowl season. Hope we catch some. Giving points is always dangerous especially when the previous year was fav city. 

@Bridge1

 Did you at least cash out some of these losses?

Yeah rough start .. we'll see how it goes from here, tough to stay on top of the ins and outs on these teams and ya know its bowl season so lotta uncharacteristic levels of play .. App State failure makes sense WKY really showed up looking to close out a great season and rewrite some record books .. mountaineers also surprising with some 'outs' in their DB group and WKY's xfers like Tinsley and the good CB Beanie ended up playing .. wouldn't have mattered much because Chase Brice brought his 'Duke Game' with him and missed a bunch / throwin picks fumbling, etc.. was surprised how often App was getting themselves stuffed for short runs up the gut when they were gashing them easy on the outside .. BYU QB sitch obvi wasn't helpful .. Allgier such a huge big time gamer was playing huge and really needed Jarren Hall playing huge beside him and maybe not a cover but think decent enough shot BYU clearly didn't roll over and die after getting socked in the face early on .. Oregon State lol man 2 play TD to start the game then hit the showers .. Utah State w 3rd string QB romps em .. welcome to bowl season .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

SDSU -3

Not one I was hoping to even play but we have a good setup here .. think its a good spot for SDSU / bad for UTSA heading in not to mention strength of the conferences but now sounds like UTSA gunna really have a bunch of guys out and coach mentioning covid protocols, injuries, opt outs and how important depth is and how much they reallly need fans to show up in Frisco .. pretty grimm sounding quotes and its some pretty significant guys who are confirmed out and a few others sitting out of practice yesterday .. and the spot situation where RR'ers off that epic win / season / pretty short turnaround to the bowl and flip side SDSU obvi reallllly stunk it up in their conf champ game in part because of covid but it went beyond that we see Utah State really was a dang tough customer and embarrassed em .. haven't heard a preponderance of outs/skips and been a few weeks since covid romped them, if it was rampant still think we'd have heard the beat writers pick up on it .. guys missing the trip .. guys out of practice .. etc.. just lines up to be a gut check for not just the players but really on Hoke and the program .. Also really like MW this year top to near bottom was very tough, SDSU's record is well vetted at this point .. UTSA is certainly dangerous playing their best ball but in a few bad spots we saw the RR'rs look like a bottom of the conference team .. Very near loss to S.Miss before UAB showdown game .. Romped by UNT after UAB miracle win and they still had a perfect season on the line at that point .. if looking for alternatives would maybe consider SDSU's TT Over at 25.5 but the pace may end up slowing downs and I don't have enough pepto stored up to play it lol .. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYS
SDSU -3
ARMY -3
GEORGIA -7 
KENTUCKY -3
EAST CAROLINA +3
MICHIGAN STATE +3
UTAH / OHIO STATE OVER 65
BYU -8.5 
APP STATE -2.5 

SMALLER
HOUSTON +3
WASH STATE +3
MICHIGAN STATE +4
VIRGINIA / SMU UNDER 72.5

TEAM TOTALs
GA.STATE OVER 27.5
IOWA UNDER 21.5
VA.TECH UNDER 26.5
OK.STATE UNDER 21.5
APP STATE OVER 34.5 

Q1 TEAM TOTALs
UTSA Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
AUBURN Q1 TT UNDER 6.5
E.CAROLINA Q1 TT OVER 3.5
LOUISVILLE Q1 TT UNDER 6.5 

Think besides the dogs barkin big early a huge take-away has been the massive variance in the outcomes from where the lines are being set at .. Bunch of lines have been really scrunched down to a FG or so which wouldn't be the case normally .. bookies obvi not wanting to give you a huge ML then see a QB opt out and otherwise we're seeing a pretty big dog show up ready to play is not far off from bagging a win .. favorites showing up also romping .. I usually do ML/TOTAL parlay for fun bets but for this scenario w the ML's scrunched I don't see why Pleasers aren't just the way to go .. the odds are skewed unfavorably like anything else but there's quite a few wounded ducks out there sitting on a fairly short line .. won't surprise anyone if these teams ends up getting romped big .. 

FUN BET 6PT PLEASER 48-1

WYOMING -10 .. nothing really bad to report w Kent State but really like Wyoming in almost a home spot and in a bit of altitude and Bohl been working hard to get these guys back in bowl games, hasn't disappointed .. near upset of BYU in '16 as a 10 pt dog, two big romps after that .. 
SDSU -9.5 .. see notes above .. we'll see .. 
HOUSTON -4.5 .. Auburn roster is really getting throttled .. 
MEMPHIS -15.5 .. Hawaii facing nothing short of a mutiny .. Memphis opt outs is a concern but there's a reason Haw is one of a few getting big points .. and at home .. last 'Mutiny Bowl' I can recall is when Houston was with their backup QB and got romped 70-14 by Army .. same ingredients present here .. 

Others might be worth shoppin around for  .. MD-10 VT roster descimated MD has to be looking for a big game here (right???...eek) .. Tenn -11, Purdue same thing, best guys out, could of course see some inspired ball .. have W.Mich in a pleaser play now but was getting like 10.5 on the 6 point pleaser at that time you'll be layin 14 now maybe a bit of a stretch .. Miss. State line a bit high too but got some Pleaser action on them at 16.5 .. Even w some opt outs Bulldogs get their hooks into T-Tech and would expect a romp, Pirate is not gunna dog it w this bowl .. Anyway .. bowl season .. cheap thrills .. nothing more .. good luck!

@SteamCave

 Bridge 

You upgraded Mich St as a Bridge play after first making it a small play. Noticed in your above recap you have them listed as a small play. Please reconcile. Thanks 

@robtri

 You subsequently posted Mich St +3 as a Bridge Play. Please let us know. Thanks 

@robtri

Well I posted two plays .. the first one was smaller at +4 figured there was some small value at that number .. then the second play was bigger at +3 and I mentioned the situations I was now keying on that I thought made +3 make sense for a bigger play ... then the line moved 5.5 points .. 

@Bridge1

 Thanks, Bridge. I did not notice the line move. Good luck to us.

@robtri

Yeah Rob I usually won't post a play on the same team twice like that even if I end up betting more just not something Im gunna bother with ..  but in this instance there was new info w the coach leaving and made me think much better chance w him gone Kenny P and others might bail out too and get some legit value .. line had already change so only fair to post it two separate plays at that point .. not trying to be confusing about it .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

WISCONSIN -6.5

Was hoping this broke off the 7 spot in this direction I think the solid dog play early in the bowl season helped move that for us .. otherwise there is absolutely no reason this line should be moving toward the middle here .. Would count on Wisco being ready for this game they have oft lost out on a big game at ssn's end and found themselves either playing very tough like vs Oreg in the Rose Bowl a few years back or beating up on Miami in a lesser bowl .. Even letting Wake tangle with them last year the tide eventually turned pretty quick and won huge ..  Wisc also getting best RB back Braelon Allen is huge, legit stand out player runs for 230 vs Nebraska before injury made final game vs Minn made him ineffective but says he's feeling great now, otherwise haven't had any opt outs .. ASU on the other hand survived some coaching and injury turmoil early on but fell apart late .. Opt outs and injuries really hitting hard w White and Traynum at RB leaves just Ngata back there played very sparingly, his backup hasn't had a carry since week 2 .. questions at TE two solid OL's injured late in the year are out..  Defense has some real questions we know top 2 corners are out, LBs took a hit w Butler out, Merlin was out final game vs UA maybe back we'll see .. then reading there are a bunch of others not seen at practice yesterday includes 3 of the better ones on the DL Gentry their 4th LB, couple more further down the the rotation .. ASU also has a media agreement where practice deets are very limited so only saying whose observed showing up and they also shoo media outta practice early before as their 1's vs 1's start .. the picture is one thats at best not good and unclear how bad it could be .. 

Just capping what we know the main thing we're counting on is seeing ASU really struggle running the ball .. only games they go under 5 yds/carry were Utah, Wash St, BYU, Oreg St = all 5 of their losses .. However you adjust Wisco's run D numbers around, remove sack yds, compare to success rates has been elite, every game solid .. pass D struggled in 2 games .. Think Daniels will need his best game and be picking up ALOT of their first downs w them so short handed .. Don't think we at all need Wisco to do more than usual on offense w ASU's D looking in real trouble .. kicker is maybe penalties w ASU never cleaning it up .. 10 and 13 penalties in last couple games .. avg twice the flags and yds Wisco does and don't think roster throttling and no doubt heavy wisco traveling fan base will be any help in vegas .. 

Obvi Covid could wreck what seems like a good play .. I don't find anything related to that in google searches so fingers crossed .. playing .. 

Bridge

I see you on the Ga St TT O27.5.....thoughts on them -5 vs Ball St? Leaning that way, but its a fairly odd stand alone game.....

@TRAIN69

Yeah just looking at the models here they have GA-State much better than the 4.5 or whatever and like how they were better down the stretch changed things up mid ssn and found a couple good RB's after losing Coates rush yds good and consistent and that's what im keying on also found other WR's besides Pinkney .. TT's are never big plays for me .. seemed like the total was depressed a little and just thinking if they are better then score will show it and don't want to worry as much about basically covering a full TD and really need to be up 2 to feel comfortable it won't turn to a bowl of crap on a meaningless TD or something .. also like that coach, had a rough go vs Wyo the other year w the QB missing an ACL but they were ready to play in that one and bested WKY last year and seen em play well in a few big games think they will here too .. 

Was tellin ya Mizzooo could get a little ugly before kickoff .. Tyler Badie's ALL SEC 1600 yds won't be playing, right move by him ... I mentioned what it looks like behind him if he aint playin, not much ..Also Connor Blaze-A-Lot isin't starting .. he's in the game but giving the nod to the guy that had a good drive vs UGA .. think Army will be pretty well up his ass most of the day ..  we'll see but .. WOOF .. Also one Zoo's better DL's also opting out for NFL glory .. man news is getting not great ..  .. Unfortunately not getting a deal on the Army TT Over .. total is down to 55 now but Army line shot up 3 .. 

Got a couple Kentucky WR idiots in a car wreck and Ivory Greene guess gunna start for Iowa .. def not the news I wanted but don't think its a killer either .. i hope .. 

A&M practices stopped since Saturday .. covid outbreak .. woah has TA&M been hit hard .. line at -3 .. tough to see it inverting but this could thin to a pick'em easy before kickoff .. zillion guys out already .. 

Wisconsin 

On, Wisconsin!

BRIDGE PLAY
SDSU -3  .. survived the 130 yds of penalties .. shuda been so much easier .. 

TEAM TOTALs
UTSA Q1 TT UNDER 6.5 .. lasted about 2 minutes ... these aren't monster bets btw guys lol .. 

FUN BET 6PT PLEASER 48-1 .. woop woop!!! .. half way there .. 
WYOMING -10 
SDSU -9.5 
MEMPHIS -15.5
HOUSTON -4.5

Couple more Army notes .. 

Already on ARMY at -3 and -3.5's .. really wanted Army TT Over 28 think this run game is gunna be tough for Mizzoo and another good DL opted yesterday .. maybe hedge a small amount at +7.5 if we see that but think I'd just assume wait and see what this looks like for a Q or a half first .. if Army can get off to a quick start mizzoo prob getting +13.5/14 pretty quick if looking to hedge .. unless Zoo has an easy time driving and shuts Army down up a TD with the ball lookin good I wouldn't expect the algos to put our Army -3 bets underwater all that quickly .. 

Drink is def challenging the remaining roster to try out for positions next year and gunna play a few guys .. noted in my pick they were giving 3 QB's reps .. think we def see Bazalak in there today maybe he gets H2 .. would want to know is the 3rd guy expected to see at least one drive or if Baz or starter get hot they staying in? .. the starter led that UGA drive when nothing else was working and clearly won the starting job so wouldn't discount him .. Drink will also make these guys play a full 60, not sittin on the ball late in the game and final drive will def be callin time outs and trying to land a last score as we've seen many times if behind ... maybe even if ahead considering the try out nature of this game .. he's irked alot of opposing coaches by doing that .. 

If we get the combo of Army running more/less like usual and Drink planning on making his guys play a full 60 .. total already down 4-5 points with the Badie news and Bazalak not starting but think still a very good recipe for the over to hit here .. Zoo with an Ace FG kicker could come in handy, neither punter very good, Army gunna go on 4th likely all game Zoo not known for going on 4th but they did it 3 and 4 times in games this year that got away from them .. also seeing Army do it to their D over and over does kinda force the coach to give it a try .. Liberty did it 7 times vs Army, easily most 4th dn att's they had .. Also seeing Army open things up passing this year, they will def take some shots in this game, def not expecting the chess match we get vs Navy .. went on 4th dn once in that game .. can see up to 6 times when not playing conservative football .... would def see if Zoo can stop that FB dive play at all if that's 4 yds a pop up the gut it will open everything else up .. gotta still think Mizzoo will still do something offensively here even w their stud RB out ... wouldn't flinch if Q1 score is 0-0 either recall WKY/Army 0-0 Q1 ... total free for all after that .. optimal time to hit the in-game total .. 

Good luck today!

@Bridge1