Matter of trust in the team showing up here and we're getting a TD and seems pretty clear the best way for Milton to be a star is to buckle down and light it up in this game .. im sure we're gunna get a barrage of players declaring before kickoff but gunna hand me 7 because Cade Klub lay'd out UNC well then fine think I gotta take this one early .. suspect it'll settle under a TD at some point maybe even tighten up considerably .. to go a bit higher I'd have to imagine just a significant number of Vols roll out and virtually nobody for Clemson .. should have the better offense and think it ends in a shootout, yeah take a TD on what seems like a bit of an overreaction to the champ game performance .. all that said yeah Cade is legit good and a 180 from DJ Fat Ass whose already in the portal so yeah can't go more than a smaller on it, at least for now .. if today was gameday and everyone we expect to play ends up playing then yeah I probably would really hit it .. good luck!
1
SMALLER
TENNESSEE +7
Matter of trust in the team showing up here and we're getting a TD and seems pretty clear the best way for Milton to be a star is to buckle down and light it up in this game .. im sure we're gunna get a barrage of players declaring before kickoff but gunna hand me 7 because Cade Klub lay'd out UNC well then fine think I gotta take this one early .. suspect it'll settle under a TD at some point maybe even tighten up considerably .. to go a bit higher I'd have to imagine just a significant number of Vols roll out and virtually nobody for Clemson .. should have the better offense and think it ends in a shootout, yeah take a TD on what seems like a bit of an overreaction to the champ game performance .. all that said yeah Cade is legit good and a 180 from DJ Fat Ass whose already in the portal so yeah can't go more than a smaller on it, at least for now .. if today was gameday and everyone we expect to play ends up playing then yeah I probably would really hit it .. good luck!
Its fairly small for now the line is down from -10.5 and I get the move, its a bowl game and Utah State did hang close with Boise they don't have any real sit outs as of now and we saw them show up last year .. disappointing year for Memphis but as of now they don't have any major sit outs either and w 6 wins last year and got the Hawaii bowl cancelled on them last year .. its a fairly senior-laden defense combined with a few on offense and a number of younger guys playing in their first bowl game including Hennigan .. just get the feeling they show up looking to go out with a fun game and others looking to build their momentum for next year .. don't think there's too many guys who are in a position to ditch out on the bowl entirely ..
SP+ woulda made a straight up game vs these two at -20 so we're considerably lower than the models and even where the bookies pegged this one in the opening lines so in one sense the line is squished down 13 points for us .. one reason for that is Memp is also a team that just fell under the wire vs the upper crust of the division for the most part .. real close losses vs Houston, ECU, SMU and still just a score away from UCF .. lost to Tulane by 10 .. nobody really out yarded them significantly and they were +75 vs Tulane too .. clearly a decent AAC competitor that was on the wrong side a bunch of times this year .. Utah State no doubt getting better after losing their QB early like them a bit but hanging w Boise was more of a knock on where I expected Boise to be mentally in that game .. would also say look at the two conferences AAC pretty top to bottom solid and MW just a disaster this year for the most part, Aggs captured a bowl after losing to Weber State 35-7 by beating Colo State, NM, Hawaii down the stretch and caught SJSU in a real ugly down spot, one Aggs needed for the bowl and barely pulled off .. just feels a bit smoke n mirrors for the Aggs and a bit underrated for the Tigers
As for the matchup I think its tough for the Aggs, Memphis w a legit good run D and if they struggle there they could have some success vs a real hit n miss Tigers pass D but I think more likely case is you take away Utah State's run and the offense falls apart .. and probably also just need to get lucky Memphis offense screws around and makes mistakes because they're pretty good on that side .. if Memphis shows up for this one I really like the prospect of them romping these guys pretty easy .. Def like the spot at a TD wouldn't go more than that...
1
SMALLER
MEMPHIS -7
Its fairly small for now the line is down from -10.5 and I get the move, its a bowl game and Utah State did hang close with Boise they don't have any real sit outs as of now and we saw them show up last year .. disappointing year for Memphis but as of now they don't have any major sit outs either and w 6 wins last year and got the Hawaii bowl cancelled on them last year .. its a fairly senior-laden defense combined with a few on offense and a number of younger guys playing in their first bowl game including Hennigan .. just get the feeling they show up looking to go out with a fun game and others looking to build their momentum for next year .. don't think there's too many guys who are in a position to ditch out on the bowl entirely ..
SP+ woulda made a straight up game vs these two at -20 so we're considerably lower than the models and even where the bookies pegged this one in the opening lines so in one sense the line is squished down 13 points for us .. one reason for that is Memp is also a team that just fell under the wire vs the upper crust of the division for the most part .. real close losses vs Houston, ECU, SMU and still just a score away from UCF .. lost to Tulane by 10 .. nobody really out yarded them significantly and they were +75 vs Tulane too .. clearly a decent AAC competitor that was on the wrong side a bunch of times this year .. Utah State no doubt getting better after losing their QB early like them a bit but hanging w Boise was more of a knock on where I expected Boise to be mentally in that game .. would also say look at the two conferences AAC pretty top to bottom solid and MW just a disaster this year for the most part, Aggs captured a bowl after losing to Weber State 35-7 by beating Colo State, NM, Hawaii down the stretch and caught SJSU in a real ugly down spot, one Aggs needed for the bowl and barely pulled off .. just feels a bit smoke n mirrors for the Aggs and a bit underrated for the Tigers
As for the matchup I think its tough for the Aggs, Memphis w a legit good run D and if they struggle there they could have some success vs a real hit n miss Tigers pass D but I think more likely case is you take away Utah State's run and the offense falls apart .. and probably also just need to get lucky Memphis offense screws around and makes mistakes because they're pretty good on that side .. if Memphis shows up for this one I really like the prospect of them romping these guys pretty easy .. Def like the spot at a TD wouldn't go more than that...
Only found one at 48 out there at a local book so can only call this smaller, I'd grab 47.5 too and still on the smaller side of the smallers .. Should be a game these squads show up for Mayo bowl in Charlotte pretty close proximity and MD for sure gotta be kinda happy landing in B2B bowl games .. NC State had a pretty disappointing season to say the least they were trying to go next level this year maybe compete for the conference .. we can count on NC State's D to show up here I think but the wolfpack O which lost devin leary (now in the portal) should continue to struggle, maybe more so as the OC left for the Coastal HC job this week .. MD's D wasn't awful this year hit and miss pass D with decent run D in most games .. got throttled vs Penn State, Mich, even NU but pretty solid otherwise and think that's the key here just don't get gashed by the wolfpack O .. I assume Ben Finley is the QB and he put a decent day up vs UNC but that's not hard to do .. Ville's real good D held him down to 45% completions .. I'd expect somewhere in the middle here but their run game stunk baaad all year toppled 3 y/carry a couple times vs BC recently and earlier in the year vs FSU and UConn .. UNC, VT, Wake, Cuse, Ville all put the run in a total choke hold down the stretch under 3/carry and under 100 yds ..
MD already with a few of the WR's declaring for the draft, its not clear if they're all skipping the bowl but does seem like Demus and Copeland are and CJ Dippre in the portal and Jarrett the top WR going pro but didn't say if he was skipping .. they still have a few solid targets esp Corey Dyches and Jeshaun Jones but it does look like well over 50% of the receiving production could be out .. think the concern is more on NC State's D if they can stay together and motivated and think they will .. Not on a side yet but def lean to MD, they were clearly ready to handle VT last year and bowl's are still a big deal to some programs .. Terps are def one of them lol ..
1
SMALLER
MARYLAND / NC STATE UNDER 48
Only found one at 48 out there at a local book so can only call this smaller, I'd grab 47.5 too and still on the smaller side of the smallers .. Should be a game these squads show up for Mayo bowl in Charlotte pretty close proximity and MD for sure gotta be kinda happy landing in B2B bowl games .. NC State had a pretty disappointing season to say the least they were trying to go next level this year maybe compete for the conference .. we can count on NC State's D to show up here I think but the wolfpack O which lost devin leary (now in the portal) should continue to struggle, maybe more so as the OC left for the Coastal HC job this week .. MD's D wasn't awful this year hit and miss pass D with decent run D in most games .. got throttled vs Penn State, Mich, even NU but pretty solid otherwise and think that's the key here just don't get gashed by the wolfpack O .. I assume Ben Finley is the QB and he put a decent day up vs UNC but that's not hard to do .. Ville's real good D held him down to 45% completions .. I'd expect somewhere in the middle here but their run game stunk baaad all year toppled 3 y/carry a couple times vs BC recently and earlier in the year vs FSU and UConn .. UNC, VT, Wake, Cuse, Ville all put the run in a total choke hold down the stretch under 3/carry and under 100 yds ..
MD already with a few of the WR's declaring for the draft, its not clear if they're all skipping the bowl but does seem like Demus and Copeland are and CJ Dippre in the portal and Jarrett the top WR going pro but didn't say if he was skipping .. they still have a few solid targets esp Corey Dyches and Jeshaun Jones but it does look like well over 50% of the receiving production could be out .. think the concern is more on NC State's D if they can stay together and motivated and think they will .. Not on a side yet but def lean to MD, they were clearly ready to handle VT last year and bowl's are still a big deal to some programs .. Terps are def one of them lol ..
Not totally sure on the status of either teams' rosters yet we do know Lib had a major shakeup with Freeze leaving and he's both the OC/Playcaller and offensive mastermind and the DC is taking over the interim duties .. they do have Chadwell coming in next year which could keep some guys around and motivated to play in this one .. we also know the team totally died after the news Freeze was leaving .. hard to judge the motivations here but pretty sure the offense will likely be tough to get coordinated and might see their trio of QB's again like we saw vs NMSU basically trying out for the next regime .. I trust Libs D alot more than the offense there are a couple solid players left at least for now and a few with pro potential I'd expect to play in this one .. the main figure on offense to check on is the WR Demario Douglas I could definitely see him get courted away by Freeze and leave him little motivation to play in the bowl game maybe one other WR could get a call too .. I would expect quite a few guys to hit the portal at some point and lean to being more on the offensive side which could really ding the total by kickoff maybe into the 40's we'll see.
Toledo is probably not all that excited for this game either after claiming the MAC and we saw what this team looks like when unmotivated down the stretch w the division locked up they lost multiple games they really shouldn't have and while they came back for a big score vs BG it was really the offense early doing nothing that lost em that game .. W.Mich ended in a 14-20 loss and the champ game was another snoozer 17-7 ..
Obvi could see neither team excited to actually be in the bowl besides a trip to Boca but in the end I don't think that translates into offenses just romping here .. also Boca is a weather risk often rainy sometimes gets pretty windy this time of year so that could help us too ..
0
SMALLER
LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5
Not totally sure on the status of either teams' rosters yet we do know Lib had a major shakeup with Freeze leaving and he's both the OC/Playcaller and offensive mastermind and the DC is taking over the interim duties .. they do have Chadwell coming in next year which could keep some guys around and motivated to play in this one .. we also know the team totally died after the news Freeze was leaving .. hard to judge the motivations here but pretty sure the offense will likely be tough to get coordinated and might see their trio of QB's again like we saw vs NMSU basically trying out for the next regime .. I trust Libs D alot more than the offense there are a couple solid players left at least for now and a few with pro potential I'd expect to play in this one .. the main figure on offense to check on is the WR Demario Douglas I could definitely see him get courted away by Freeze and leave him little motivation to play in the bowl game maybe one other WR could get a call too .. I would expect quite a few guys to hit the portal at some point and lean to being more on the offensive side which could really ding the total by kickoff maybe into the 40's we'll see.
Toledo is probably not all that excited for this game either after claiming the MAC and we saw what this team looks like when unmotivated down the stretch w the division locked up they lost multiple games they really shouldn't have and while they came back for a big score vs BG it was really the offense early doing nothing that lost em that game .. W.Mich ended in a 14-20 loss and the champ game was another snoozer 17-7 ..
Obvi could see neither team excited to actually be in the bowl besides a trip to Boca but in the end I don't think that translates into offenses just romping here .. also Boca is a weather risk often rainy sometimes gets pretty windy this time of year so that could help us too ..
^^^One other interesting dynamic is you have Chadwell signed up for Liberty and his good DC Chad Staggs is still at Coastal as the interim for the bowl .. I'd assume he gets hired onto Liberty but Freeeze's DC is interim'ing for the bowl there and theres def an interview going on w him right now .. def in his best interest to at least have his D ready for this one .. always possible both know what their next jobs are gunna be and are basically checked out at this point but its a bit of a plot twist w the coordinators going on for those games and a few others ..
0
^^^One other interesting dynamic is you have Chadwell signed up for Liberty and his good DC Chad Staggs is still at Coastal as the interim for the bowl .. I'd assume he gets hired onto Liberty but Freeeze's DC is interim'ing for the bowl there and theres def an interview going on w him right now .. def in his best interest to at least have his D ready for this one .. always possible both know what their next jobs are gunna be and are basically checked out at this point but its a bit of a plot twist w the coordinators going on for those games and a few others ..
Was waiting for a few of the Horns to drop their bowl plans on us and seems we got both RB's Roschan and Bijan out and the best LB Overshown out this one .. this was on my radar before just expect DeBoer to have a team wanting to show up here first year HC and apparently already got a commitment from the QB to play in the bowl .. SP+ would line this at 7 and think just more likely to see Horns be less interested in this one and likely have guys hitting the portal or declaring before the game .. think the line's already dropping so bagging now and def putting somewhere in a parlay with a few open slots ..
Good luck!
1
SMALLER
WASHINGTON +6
Was waiting for a few of the Horns to drop their bowl plans on us and seems we got both RB's Roschan and Bijan out and the best LB Overshown out this one .. this was on my radar before just expect DeBoer to have a team wanting to show up here first year HC and apparently already got a commitment from the QB to play in the bowl .. SP+ would line this at 7 and think just more likely to see Horns be less interested in this one and likely have guys hitting the portal or declaring before the game .. think the line's already dropping so bagging now and def putting somewhere in a parlay with a few open slots ..
I think this is one of the easier ones to sound out in my head although its a long way out and def some moving parts likely coming .. first while the end of the reg ssn was disappointing not making the champ game Illini did keep the team together showed up massively vs Michigan and the finale vs NU .. its a team that could have folded the tents late but stuck together and missed out on a bowl last year w 5 wins (and many many years before that) and not a NY6 but high quality opponent worth showing up for .. The risks taking this early are obvious they have quite a few guys with an NFL career obvi Chase Brown and Witherspoon maybe some others .. and just named DC coach of the year he's obvi getting some calls this week .. Heard Bielema talk at the presser and seems like a pretty straight shooter and idk even if they miss a couple guys I just think they're showing up here not just for a bowl getaway to florida but for a big win ..
Kinda the opposite feeling for Miss State, it was a kinda almost coulda got there season that died midway thru and we know Leach doesn't do bowl games very well and if he couldn't ready the troops for a revenge game last year vs T-Tech then I have serious doubts about their readyness for thsi game .. Dogs already had a few guys hit the portal and electing to go pro .. classic case of SEC 'were not in the playoff so seeya' set up here and w a coach that doesn't put much stock in these games anyway .. maybe they do this time we'll see .. maybe one clue to the team's mindset is the #2 back Dillon Johnson hit the portal and in his statement called coach leach out by name saying he's going where he's wanted .. yikes .. I got the sense of this for a few years guys leaving with a few sour grapes .. idk but really seems like a case of a teams that wants to play vs maybe a bit frustrated and ready for the season to be over .. just too many ways for that to impact the game esp when the team is stewing around like that for a month before kickoff .. I suspect we'll get more guys ditching Miss State's bowl and team morale will be very strong for ILL going into this one and at some point folks will kinda put those pieces together .. seeing -1.5 and -2 now think at some point we're at -3 and maybe more if a really key guy like Rodgers takes his shot at the NFL early .. we'll see ..
1
BRIDGE PLAY
ILLINOIS -1.5
I think this is one of the easier ones to sound out in my head although its a long way out and def some moving parts likely coming .. first while the end of the reg ssn was disappointing not making the champ game Illini did keep the team together showed up massively vs Michigan and the finale vs NU .. its a team that could have folded the tents late but stuck together and missed out on a bowl last year w 5 wins (and many many years before that) and not a NY6 but high quality opponent worth showing up for .. The risks taking this early are obvious they have quite a few guys with an NFL career obvi Chase Brown and Witherspoon maybe some others .. and just named DC coach of the year he's obvi getting some calls this week .. Heard Bielema talk at the presser and seems like a pretty straight shooter and idk even if they miss a couple guys I just think they're showing up here not just for a bowl getaway to florida but for a big win ..
Kinda the opposite feeling for Miss State, it was a kinda almost coulda got there season that died midway thru and we know Leach doesn't do bowl games very well and if he couldn't ready the troops for a revenge game last year vs T-Tech then I have serious doubts about their readyness for thsi game .. Dogs already had a few guys hit the portal and electing to go pro .. classic case of SEC 'were not in the playoff so seeya' set up here and w a coach that doesn't put much stock in these games anyway .. maybe they do this time we'll see .. maybe one clue to the team's mindset is the #2 back Dillon Johnson hit the portal and in his statement called coach leach out by name saying he's going where he's wanted .. yikes .. I got the sense of this for a few years guys leaving with a few sour grapes .. idk but really seems like a case of a teams that wants to play vs maybe a bit frustrated and ready for the season to be over .. just too many ways for that to impact the game esp when the team is stewing around like that for a month before kickoff .. I suspect we'll get more guys ditching Miss State's bowl and team morale will be very strong for ILL going into this one and at some point folks will kinda put those pieces together .. seeing -1.5 and -2 now think at some point we're at -3 and maybe more if a really key guy like Rodgers takes his shot at the NFL early .. we'll see ..
This is flirting w a bridge play but having trouble finding much 411 on Troy and what they're mindset sounds like coming into the game .. and some worry here we have 2 conference champions who have to get back on the horse quick for a game and hope the offenses are on point after a week of parades and praises .. one offense no shows and could be tough on the scoring .. we also have the OC for UTSA moving on I think to Oregon .. big move!! .. also unclear if Zachari Franklin is playing can't get a beat on it but really hope so think he might be in for one last hurrah w his boys w the bowl being so close to year end ..
All that said this game does sound really important for UTSA Coach Traylor talked about building the program a bit and a first bowl win for UTSA is a big step and moving to the AAC next year and top 25 showdown vs a legit top G5 squad .. they've got Frank "The Tank" Harris in for next year with a solid group of others and the big goal is gunna be hunting down that NY6 bowl slot and they know what a spring board having the pre-ssn rank is .. Coach is not shy in the pressers talking about how big the program is growing and need to get those NIL sponsors to keep things together .. big game big stage and big W is very helpful .. no new injuries since the conf champ game too and coach says its more/less the same roster which is fairly thin as it is, D been fairly susceptible to UTEP and N.Texas in recent games, I think we see that again here.. one other game we can point to is @UAB a team built more/less like Troy and total ultimately made it before even the OT ... also like UTSA's ability to go get those scores close to halftime and when behind late leading to 3 OT games this year ..
Not much out there to infer what Troy's mindset is but the offense really came on strong in the latter weeks and I'd liken UTSA's D to that of Coastal very beatable .. Coastal with a still sorta hobbled McCall .. Coastal didn't put the points up at least not early on but out yarded em 430 to 410 .. the key here is we get Troy to score early and initiate that tit for tat scoring because the total could def stay low if Troy's D is causing a bunch of havoc and we don't get the explosive plays on the other side .. it does seem like the solid group on offense for Troy can effect big plays here and UTSA can do their part keeping the pressure to score on .. and a decent underrated 'kicker' here is we got 2 real good FG kickers and they often make the difference in a total hitting.. Florida weather this time of year is a little concerning but as of now looks like Friday ..
Think the total inches up by kickoff and at 54.5 w key numbers everywhere rather grab now .. also could be a slow start but some point these offenses start clickin which is maybe a play to wait for .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
UTSA / TROY OVER 54.5
This is flirting w a bridge play but having trouble finding much 411 on Troy and what they're mindset sounds like coming into the game .. and some worry here we have 2 conference champions who have to get back on the horse quick for a game and hope the offenses are on point after a week of parades and praises .. one offense no shows and could be tough on the scoring .. we also have the OC for UTSA moving on I think to Oregon .. big move!! .. also unclear if Zachari Franklin is playing can't get a beat on it but really hope so think he might be in for one last hurrah w his boys w the bowl being so close to year end ..
All that said this game does sound really important for UTSA Coach Traylor talked about building the program a bit and a first bowl win for UTSA is a big step and moving to the AAC next year and top 25 showdown vs a legit top G5 squad .. they've got Frank "The Tank" Harris in for next year with a solid group of others and the big goal is gunna be hunting down that NY6 bowl slot and they know what a spring board having the pre-ssn rank is .. Coach is not shy in the pressers talking about how big the program is growing and need to get those NIL sponsors to keep things together .. big game big stage and big W is very helpful .. no new injuries since the conf champ game too and coach says its more/less the same roster which is fairly thin as it is, D been fairly susceptible to UTEP and N.Texas in recent games, I think we see that again here.. one other game we can point to is @UAB a team built more/less like Troy and total ultimately made it before even the OT ... also like UTSA's ability to go get those scores close to halftime and when behind late leading to 3 OT games this year ..
Not much out there to infer what Troy's mindset is but the offense really came on strong in the latter weeks and I'd liken UTSA's D to that of Coastal very beatable .. Coastal with a still sorta hobbled McCall .. Coastal didn't put the points up at least not early on but out yarded em 430 to 410 .. the key here is we get Troy to score early and initiate that tit for tat scoring because the total could def stay low if Troy's D is causing a bunch of havoc and we don't get the explosive plays on the other side .. it does seem like the solid group on offense for Troy can effect big plays here and UTSA can do their part keeping the pressure to score on .. and a decent underrated 'kicker' here is we got 2 real good FG kickers and they often make the difference in a total hitting.. Florida weather this time of year is a little concerning but as of now looks like Friday ..
Think the total inches up by kickoff and at 54.5 w key numbers everywhere rather grab now .. also could be a slow start but some point these offenses start clickin which is maybe a play to wait for .. good luck!
Hit this early on at 44.5 which is Circa's original total and that's moving down to 42 in some spots now .. bagged the H1 line at MGM who still has the highest total available at 43.5 .. the set up here is kinda ugly we got HC's at both schools were leaving and already on a backup QB at Cincy and he didn't look all that great moving the ball vs Tulane seemed some of their points were had because of some lucky plays in that game and we had basically the entire RB corps leaving from Ville and Cunningham announced he was out .. since then we've had a number of players on Cincy's offense announce their departures incl most of the receiving corps outside the top 2 and now Tre Tucker says he's gone .. does leave Tyler Scott their top target who is legit good but funny feeling he might not stick around, we'll see but seems at most they have 1 credible rec target .. also saw on a fan site their best OL Tunstall is likely not playing and he's likely a future pro .. the last solid piece on O we don't know about besides Scott is McClelland at RB and again we'll see his decent backup was out their final game, unsure of his status but a pretty throttled offense and really just one CB announced a transfer but a solid group thats been there for a good while seems to be playing, we'll see if sackmaster Ivan 'The Terrible' Pace is in or not but seems a very solid unit is showing up ..
Same for Ville very good D underrated D this year and I haven't seen much in the way of xferring out of them yet with the bowl game looming a week out or so .. Yasir Abdullah might be the only true pro prospect who could make a business decision here but I think like Cincy this D is really strength in numbers and not as much powered by superstars ..
I could also see both squads going fairly deeeep into unknown and untested parts of their rosters in this game, they got 2 new coaching regimes coming in and landing the W for the team as a whole doesn't seem all that meaningful, I'd def get my prospects some playing time, seniors, guys who stuck around for the bowl make sure to reward all them with a memory.. if not fine think we'll generally get better defense but def prefer H1 in this instance as were more likely to get the best defensive lineups early on and more of a crapshoot late in the game .. def rather have it over the 21 spot than on or below where I could see it ending up .. good luck!
2
SMALLER
L'VILLE / CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5
Hit this early on at 44.5 which is Circa's original total and that's moving down to 42 in some spots now .. bagged the H1 line at MGM who still has the highest total available at 43.5 .. the set up here is kinda ugly we got HC's at both schools were leaving and already on a backup QB at Cincy and he didn't look all that great moving the ball vs Tulane seemed some of their points were had because of some lucky plays in that game and we had basically the entire RB corps leaving from Ville and Cunningham announced he was out .. since then we've had a number of players on Cincy's offense announce their departures incl most of the receiving corps outside the top 2 and now Tre Tucker says he's gone .. does leave Tyler Scott their top target who is legit good but funny feeling he might not stick around, we'll see but seems at most they have 1 credible rec target .. also saw on a fan site their best OL Tunstall is likely not playing and he's likely a future pro .. the last solid piece on O we don't know about besides Scott is McClelland at RB and again we'll see his decent backup was out their final game, unsure of his status but a pretty throttled offense and really just one CB announced a transfer but a solid group thats been there for a good while seems to be playing, we'll see if sackmaster Ivan 'The Terrible' Pace is in or not but seems a very solid unit is showing up ..
Same for Ville very good D underrated D this year and I haven't seen much in the way of xferring out of them yet with the bowl game looming a week out or so .. Yasir Abdullah might be the only true pro prospect who could make a business decision here but I think like Cincy this D is really strength in numbers and not as much powered by superstars ..
I could also see both squads going fairly deeeep into unknown and untested parts of their rosters in this game, they got 2 new coaching regimes coming in and landing the W for the team as a whole doesn't seem all that meaningful, I'd def get my prospects some playing time, seniors, guys who stuck around for the bowl make sure to reward all them with a memory.. if not fine think we'll generally get better defense but def prefer H1 in this instance as were more likely to get the best defensive lineups early on and more of a crapshoot late in the game .. def rather have it over the 21 spot than on or below where I could see it ending up .. good luck!
Can't find anything on Zachari Franklin for UTSA other than the depth chart does list him but that could be very tentative .. my guess is he's there with his bros for the festivities and GTD he plays or not .. I lean to play .. line is also up to 55.5 everywhere except Bet MGM whose been a bowl slow poke so hit it there over 54.5 .. already had a decent amount on it and hit again basically enough to call it a BP .. weather looks good and the team we really need to push the action, UTSA, is pretty active on social media w their bowl stuff and looks like folks are at least there having the good time and lookin loose and happy to be playing .. think that bodes well for what we're looking for, bros all playing think those on the fence are gunna be in too .. would nab it at Bet MGM or elsewhere at 54.5 rather than 55.5 or more lotta key numbers in the mid 50's and no reason to be risky here .. - good luck!
1
UTSA / TROY OVER 54.5 - BUMP TO BRIDGE PLAY
Can't find anything on Zachari Franklin for UTSA other than the depth chart does list him but that could be very tentative .. my guess is he's there with his bros for the festivities and GTD he plays or not .. I lean to play .. line is also up to 55.5 everywhere except Bet MGM whose been a bowl slow poke so hit it there over 54.5 .. already had a decent amount on it and hit again basically enough to call it a BP .. weather looks good and the team we really need to push the action, UTSA, is pretty active on social media w their bowl stuff and looks like folks are at least there having the good time and lookin loose and happy to be playing .. think that bodes well for what we're looking for, bros all playing think those on the fence are gunna be in too .. would nab it at Bet MGM or elsewhere at 54.5 rather than 55.5 or more lotta key numbers in the mid 50's and no reason to be risky here .. - good luck!
Not to be insensitive but gotta comment on the impact of Coach Leach's passing and think this does turn the tables a little bit on the Illinois pick, seemed fairly confident ILL would show up the more prepped and ready team .. they still might but talk about emotions of the game this is def a win one for coach kinda moment if there ever was one .. not dropping a hedge play its bowl season just lettin my play stand but I'll prob look for at the very least look for a line that might hedge me out some of my BP size wager if I see a -1.5 again for ILL .. kinda doubt we see that though .. I'd say if the line gets to +3 or better for ILL and we weren't seeing massive defections from them then I'd take the Illini again at that price either points or ML ..
Anyway .. back to reality .. RIP Pirate .. national treasure lost, truly sad ..
1
Not to be insensitive but gotta comment on the impact of Coach Leach's passing and think this does turn the tables a little bit on the Illinois pick, seemed fairly confident ILL would show up the more prepped and ready team .. they still might but talk about emotions of the game this is def a win one for coach kinda moment if there ever was one .. not dropping a hedge play its bowl season just lettin my play stand but I'll prob look for at the very least look for a line that might hedge me out some of my BP size wager if I see a -1.5 again for ILL .. kinda doubt we see that though .. I'd say if the line gets to +3 or better for ILL and we weren't seeing massive defections from them then I'd take the Illini again at that price either points or ML ..
Anyway .. back to reality .. RIP Pirate .. national treasure lost, truly sad ..
Already on the under in a few ways before it really dropped down to a depth that makes it really tough to play .. although I still can't reconcile how it gets there unless there's ST or Def TD's .. I think Ville is the way to go we have Cunningham out thats the big news but Domann the backup while maybe just mediocre played some decent snaps vs good competition down the stretch Clem, NC State and Kentucky all very good D's and did get the W vs the wolfpack and earlier in the year led a W vs UVA which did have a decent enough defense this year .. and has all the main pieces of the offense sans a few RB's Evans and Cooley but the top guy Jordan is there and a few good receiving targets and decent OL .. the D was a real surprise this year and seems to be fairly in tact so far one guy even boomarang'd back from the portal .. they also have named Brohm the HC which I think is great to keep things together def a coach worth at least sticking around for .. we're still waiting on word if their best D player Abdullah is playing but recent quote 'were a card family, im not doing what my coach did, im playing w my team" is a good indicator of his intentions and also importantly his attitude .. obvi coach Satterfield is leaving Ville headin to Cincy and not coaching in the bowl game I'm guessing with so much attrition he wants to see what all he's workin with .. think Ville prob wants to show him its not much lol .. weird quirk that seems to help Vill's motivation if anything .. and Ville/Cincy is a rivalry very close and playing I'd assume for the Keg of Nails trophy .. def want to back the team more 'up' for this one ..
Cincy on the other hand also lost their coach and just lost the last rec target as expected I count very close to 100% of this year's rec production either as injured in the portal and 4 declaring for the NFL 2 WR's and 2 TE's .. best OL Tunstall is likely to declare and skip out and couple other possible injuries in that unit .. the OC is not expected to coach in the bowl game and limited to no offensive staff around to get the deeeeep depth up to speed and coordinate with the backup QB who didn't look all that good vs Tulane .. even the kicker Ryan Coe is in the portal, unsure if he's playing but another wth for Cincy .. the D is fairly in tact althoguh I expect their best player Ivan Pace to declare and skip, we'll see .. if so might be a few leaving w him ..
Just too much turmoil on the cincy side to like their chances here IMO esp w entirely depleted rec unit that was really the driver of the offense i think and maybe best unit on the team as a whole and the defense wasn't anywhere near as good as last year .. think Ville was better on both sides of the ball and considerably better on D so we got a stronger more motivated team in a rivalry-ish bowl matchup that's just down a QB vs team that's really turned over and maybe a bit deflated from playoff crashers to missing out on the conf champ game to coach and everyone leaving to an 11am fenway bowl lol .. pretty steep curve .. good luck!
2
BRIDGE PLAY
LOUISVILLE -1
Already on the under in a few ways before it really dropped down to a depth that makes it really tough to play .. although I still can't reconcile how it gets there unless there's ST or Def TD's .. I think Ville is the way to go we have Cunningham out thats the big news but Domann the backup while maybe just mediocre played some decent snaps vs good competition down the stretch Clem, NC State and Kentucky all very good D's and did get the W vs the wolfpack and earlier in the year led a W vs UVA which did have a decent enough defense this year .. and has all the main pieces of the offense sans a few RB's Evans and Cooley but the top guy Jordan is there and a few good receiving targets and decent OL .. the D was a real surprise this year and seems to be fairly in tact so far one guy even boomarang'd back from the portal .. they also have named Brohm the HC which I think is great to keep things together def a coach worth at least sticking around for .. we're still waiting on word if their best D player Abdullah is playing but recent quote 'were a card family, im not doing what my coach did, im playing w my team" is a good indicator of his intentions and also importantly his attitude .. obvi coach Satterfield is leaving Ville headin to Cincy and not coaching in the bowl game I'm guessing with so much attrition he wants to see what all he's workin with .. think Ville prob wants to show him its not much lol .. weird quirk that seems to help Vill's motivation if anything .. and Ville/Cincy is a rivalry very close and playing I'd assume for the Keg of Nails trophy .. def want to back the team more 'up' for this one ..
Cincy on the other hand also lost their coach and just lost the last rec target as expected I count very close to 100% of this year's rec production either as injured in the portal and 4 declaring for the NFL 2 WR's and 2 TE's .. best OL Tunstall is likely to declare and skip out and couple other possible injuries in that unit .. the OC is not expected to coach in the bowl game and limited to no offensive staff around to get the deeeeep depth up to speed and coordinate with the backup QB who didn't look all that good vs Tulane .. even the kicker Ryan Coe is in the portal, unsure if he's playing but another wth for Cincy .. the D is fairly in tact althoguh I expect their best player Ivan Pace to declare and skip, we'll see .. if so might be a few leaving w him ..
Just too much turmoil on the cincy side to like their chances here IMO esp w entirely depleted rec unit that was really the driver of the offense i think and maybe best unit on the team as a whole and the defense wasn't anywhere near as good as last year .. think Ville was better on both sides of the ball and considerably better on D so we got a stronger more motivated team in a rivalry-ish bowl matchup that's just down a QB vs team that's really turned over and maybe a bit deflated from playoff crashers to missing out on the conf champ game to coach and everyone leaving to an 11am fenway bowl lol .. pretty steep curve .. good luck!
Ha yeah .. hope I don't get stung in the ass on this one, WKY and Coastal w the QB's in and frankly feels like it on Miss State now too .. woof .. think all are the right side I mean ECU went down 1 point and sounded like for a brief second books shot up to 14 before they read the last sentence of McCall's tweet .. and think SO.Bama was the right side anyway WKY def more tenuous to show up for this one .. still .. fun morning .. sigh ..
0
@BigTymePlayer25
Ha yeah .. hope I don't get stung in the ass on this one, WKY and Coastal w the QB's in and frankly feels like it on Miss State now too .. woof .. think all are the right side I mean ECU went down 1 point and sounded like for a brief second books shot up to 14 before they read the last sentence of McCall's tweet .. and think SO.Bama was the right side anyway WKY def more tenuous to show up for this one .. still .. fun morning .. sigh ..
BRIDGE PLAYS: GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 LOUISVILLE -1 FLORIDA STATE -7 BOWLING GREEN +1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 SOUTH ALABAMA -7.5 UTSA / TROY OVER 54.5 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: TCU +9.5 MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 L'VILLE / CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 MARYLAND / NC STATE UNDER 48
BRIDGE PLAYS: GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 LOUISVILLE -1 FLORIDA STATE -7 BOWLING GREEN +1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 SOUTH ALABAMA -7.5 UTSA / TROY OVER 54.5 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: TCU +9.5 MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 L'VILLE / CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 MARYLAND / NC STATE UNDER 48
Welp got some bad news w AR-16 backing out of the portal lol .. sheesh .. but fairly confident these guys are showing up and we took -8.5 initially with the expectation Reed and his backup QB were out the game in part because of the obvious but also because the line w him out was right where the SP+ model line had this matchup which assumed AR was playing .. now he's in and we're getting -4 .. can't be as confident here w such a wildcard like AR in the game, I thought we were getting like 10 or more points of value on the bridge play lol .. but I think we're getting something to like here anyway especially a jags team that should be even more fired up to play in this game ..
Something also interesting the total came out at 55 assuming AR was in I believe .. total drops to 54 w him out .. he's back in and total is like 56 or so .. nothing stranger than that move and I kinda feel like its about where it should be maybe a hare light I can imagine WKY if they are down in a game will be taking some fairly oddball risks maybe lining up easy points for the Jags or maybe rompin down the field scoring .. not sure what to make of the total move like 2 points maybe they knew he was likely coming back and only one way gamblers were gunna bet the game thinking he was out .. anyway think were decent still on the BP and -4 seems like some value baked in this jags D is more than capable of causing WKY some trouble and think they could very well even cover the BP line .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
SOUTH ALABAMA -4
Welp got some bad news w AR-16 backing out of the portal lol .. sheesh .. but fairly confident these guys are showing up and we took -8.5 initially with the expectation Reed and his backup QB were out the game in part because of the obvious but also because the line w him out was right where the SP+ model line had this matchup which assumed AR was playing .. now he's in and we're getting -4 .. can't be as confident here w such a wildcard like AR in the game, I thought we were getting like 10 or more points of value on the bridge play lol .. but I think we're getting something to like here anyway especially a jags team that should be even more fired up to play in this game ..
Something also interesting the total came out at 55 assuming AR was in I believe .. total drops to 54 w him out .. he's back in and total is like 56 or so .. nothing stranger than that move and I kinda feel like its about where it should be maybe a hare light I can imagine WKY if they are down in a game will be taking some fairly oddball risks maybe lining up easy points for the Jags or maybe rompin down the field scoring .. not sure what to make of the total move like 2 points maybe they knew he was likely coming back and only one way gamblers were gunna bet the game thinking he was out .. anyway think were decent still on the BP and -4 seems like some value baked in this jags D is more than capable of causing WKY some trouble and think they could very well even cover the BP line .. good luck!
Think its fun only play on Uconn .. if I was playing for more and wanted Conn I'd forcus in on H1 or Q1 hope we see their best punch off the bat .. they don't strike me as a comeback kinda team, were on the ropes bad vs Liberty and got just a miracle string of penalties and good luck to stay in that one .... Marshall's defense is a solid 4 deep in some spots its as deep as any top D in terms of capable players that can rotate in, haven't heard anything about xfers or NFL'ers or other whacky stuff w them so they should be in great shape .. add in they got Rasheen Ali getting significant carries now, he and Laborne really good 1-2 punch w crappy QB's .. but seems like they eventually get a 10 pt lead and have a defense that can eventually corner the huskies offense i think ... would be fun to see the huskies hang tough all game tho .. Marsh -10/U40 i think does correlate could see marsh end 21-31 pts and hold Conn to a pretty low number .. but never know, its bowl season and Conn is def showin up fired up .. don't want to lay 10 vs a highly motivated huskies team that actually can run the ball and play some run D and Herd QB's who knows maybe they kill themselves w mistakes .. yeah not real helpful lol .. good luck
0
@NYG991
Think its fun only play on Uconn .. if I was playing for more and wanted Conn I'd forcus in on H1 or Q1 hope we see their best punch off the bat .. they don't strike me as a comeback kinda team, were on the ropes bad vs Liberty and got just a miracle string of penalties and good luck to stay in that one .... Marshall's defense is a solid 4 deep in some spots its as deep as any top D in terms of capable players that can rotate in, haven't heard anything about xfers or NFL'ers or other whacky stuff w them so they should be in great shape .. add in they got Rasheen Ali getting significant carries now, he and Laborne really good 1-2 punch w crappy QB's .. but seems like they eventually get a 10 pt lead and have a defense that can eventually corner the huskies offense i think ... would be fun to see the huskies hang tough all game tho .. Marsh -10/U40 i think does correlate could see marsh end 21-31 pts and hold Conn to a pretty low number .. but never know, its bowl season and Conn is def showin up fired up .. don't want to lay 10 vs a highly motivated huskies team that actually can run the ball and play some run D and Herd QB's who knows maybe they kill themselves w mistakes .. yeah not real helpful lol .. good luck
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