BRIDGE PLAYS
GEORGIA -6.5 / OHIO ST (SEMI)
GEORGIA -7.5 / MICH (NATTY)
Hit UGA on the potential Mich Natty matchup last week -6.5, forgot to post it .. it's -7.5 now so I'll post it there .. would be best to wait for 7 obviously but think it could land 8/8.5 .. UGA run D just so good and even if we see LSU able to get some traction passign like yesterday I think you shut down OSU/Mich running or even make it real tricky it'll cause too many problem for them .. we haven't seen that for Mich since last year playing UGA in the Semi's but Wolvos game plan went south in a hurry .. think we can say JJ's passing is not bad but its not on a level they can effect much offense leading with a pass game, not vs UGA anyway .. OSU may have more explsovie success but we've seen their run game taken away numerous times this year and had almost losses vs Penn State, Maryland and struggled mightily vs NU .. I know it was windy but come on .. UGA/OSU line still at Fan Duel and potential Natty matchup w Mich is at BOL .. good luck!
SMALLER
TCU +9.5 / MICH (SEMI)
Unsure if these are even set yet but fine give me 9.5 w TCU here and I think we'll see a team capable of hanging in this number .. might BP it if the lines come out higher 10 or so but I could def see this drop to 7, just nothing to indicate TCU won't bring a competitive team .. one that's more than deserving of a playoff spot .. I wouldn't count them out from pulling an upset either they've got all the tools to get it done .. think the main thing to look at is pass protection Purdue couldn't get anything going down field but did find charlie jones open on quite a few medium routes .. little more time and I think they land a few bigger shots .. TCU is deadly from medium and receivers can break loose from there so a real X factor is whether they can keep the QB upright long enough to land shots downfield .. they do that and I think we won't just be talking about whether they can keep it close .. but if not yeah don't mind getting +9.5 and they at least find ways to put drives together, they are much more dynamic than Purdue in terms of QB mobility and ability to scramble for decent gains and Purdue's run game really stinks TCU should be much more effective .. good luck!
FUTURES
GEORGIA NATTY -135 (CZR)
Hit UGA +475 as my very first play of the pre-ssn thread and hit it in this -130 to -140 range last week leading into LSU .. surprised its still there but seeing -135 at Caesars and while maybe theres a better deal hitting both ML's on the potential playoff matches and effecting a parlay w better odds that way I'm really not sure if that Michigan will be there for the natty final and if not the parlay method would yield significantly worse odds .. I'm just locking these in now with odds closely indicating UGA is getting OSU in the semi's and Mich in the final .. but if it turns out UGA gets past OSU and we get TCU in the final then its more/less just us laying slim odds for us to win the semi final game, hard to imagine TCU pulling a stunner vs UGA if they make it and we'll have every chance to lock in a hedge in any hypothetical final matchup .. obvi prefer to not have to see Bama but I can't imagine after everyone seeing TCU's grit all year the committee would risk losing all credibility snubbing TCU again .. good luck!
CHAMP WEEK RECAP ..
As for champ week think everything was pretty good sans the H2 LSU/UGA total which got throttled pretty early .. Ohio +4.5 wasn't the right side obvi, agree w the masses the QB was just incapable of effecting anything vs that Toledo D that was a misread for sure .. but surprisingly Ohio's D really kept them in the game and at least had a drive late to keep us within 3 that like many other drives that day went absolutely nowhere, pretty close to hitting for a dud ..
Tulane/UCF Under was a dream start think the in game was down to the low 40's at one point in H1 with Plumlee really struggling and unknown backup QB for the Knights in there .. we really needed those explosive plays minimized and got that early on .. then took just such an ugly turn in H2, dam broke on us big time, missed the total under by a mile .. did need a more than minor miracle for TCU/K-State's in game total to stay under 60.5 but the only chance to lose that one was the bad luck of getting saddled with an epic comeback leading to overtime. Miracle ending was only fitting after a bit of bad luck set the table for such an awesome ending .. didn't have time to wright it out but the crux was K-State was gunna really work that clock down with the lead and algos prob not thinking about that .. we got exactly that and in game total was mid to low 50's before we got TCU fighting their way to overtime, so I'd def play that one again ..
Everything else was a solid hit UTSA ended up romping as expected after N.Tex got to scrappin early on .. Harris to Franklin .. Pure fire .. Akron was in control all game for a big win .. till the final play .. NMSU covered 31 in about 5 offensive plays lol wow someone get me a need a time machine shoulda hit that for alot more .. Fresno State played a great game think we stopped being concerned w that one early in H2 .. Purdue H1 had a chance to if Purdue couldn't have converted early but we got their best punch as expected, full game Boiler-Backers with a horrific H2 from the very beginning and teased w that FG at the end before just a horror show ending ..
Some early bites over at fanduel .. keep in mind how difficult it would be to predict which teams maybe losing QB's, guys going pro, coaches leaving etc .. think the best move is to ask whether you can count on the team collectively to be excited to play in the bowl game and if there's a strong motivation to show up and win... if that's the case then it matters much less than a few stars not playing ..
SMALLERs
ALABAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5
Any doubt that K-State is showing up for this one?... would check their defensive back unit and make sure they're in but if they show up healthy then its two teams that are really gunna be holding the ball on drives .. could break and go over sure .. .. you know Saban will show up wanting to win this game and more / less assert they should have been in the playoff .. so its possible we see them let loose here and go for a monster win .. but the MO in these sorta games has always seemed to lean the advantage of a strong run game of which we certainly can't count on Gibbs showing up for nor can we count on Bryce Young to be the guy under center .. could very well be Milroe as the starter.. there's not much about the potential contingencies in the 'whose playing?' department that screams action packed offense scoring here .. think we can play below avg scoring and hope Bama's D shows up ..
CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5
Would hit this again if it dips down to the 60ish range .. I realize both teams had a disappointing ending but this is a great matchup for both but 100% count on Klubnick being the QB and holy crap is he a boost to, as the announcers were saying, every single player on the team's confidence lol .. WOW shoulda made that switch a long time ago like after that GT game .. We might see quite a few pieces of Tenn's offense fall off but were gunna get a great game out of backup QB Milton and we got a taste of it vs Vandy .. recall he was the man to start the Heuple era last year and rightfully lost his place to Hooker midway thru the 2021 Pitt game .. I trust Milton and his rocket arm to have been waiting for a moment like this so we at the very least know there's two QB's showing up looking for a huge spotlight game that can propel them into being 'the man' on the team next year, build momentum off a big win in a matchup that is wayyyy more than worthy of showing up for .. continegncy wise yeah likely see a few Tenn offensive players vacate but I think much bigger impact if we see any really key D players check out of this one as there just aren't very many .. as for Clemson I think you can count on some of their stars on the DL to be thinking about their careers too and after getting that ACC championship reclaimed they've kinda more or less done their duty .. not hard to imagine both offenses performing well in this one .. hope we see this one dip down to 60 or so maybe make it a BP ..
UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5
Def a smaller play, Morgan Scallywag called such a great game vs USC and we got to see the next gen of dynamic running backs and a killer wildcat QB .. I also like Penn State's offense and how we see the backup Drew Allar get some drives, guy can make the throws and they have 2 great RB's .. I think the Nitneys will likely be without CB Porter whose proven enough to be a top pick and maybe lose one of the other good DB's too.. Utah's defense while pretty good in the PAC this year for the most part really isin't that great up front getting pressure and can give plenty of big plays up to an offensive profile like Penn State has, Nitneys should be able to effect a few scoring drives on them .. this total feels like way too such of a stand going 8 points below average scoring and there's not much that indicates to me we'll get the 'sure thing' slug fest this total indicates ..
BRIDGE PLAY
BOWLING GREEN +1
They really know how to pair the teams that are excited to play in a bowl game this year .. NMSU probably shocked as well, think they needed multiple waivers to be allowed in .. shoulda let JMU in instead lol .. anyway this game is in detroit and think the over/under on NMSU fans is 1.5 for this game .. think BG can only be satisfied with a walk off win whereas NMSU gotta really just be happy to be there .. we'll see how that translates but I'm not totally sure NMSU is really that close even w a massively impressive win vs Liberty .. BG pretty tried n true relative to NM who got in with wins vs Hawaii, New Mexico, Lamar, Liberty and Valpo maybe the worst team in FBS .. and losses to FIU, UTEP, Nevada .. the floor is low and pretty low ceiling .. also wouldn't surprise me if any NMSU stars were looking to maybe drop their names in the portal sooner than later if they have a shot at playing literally anywhere else .. we'll see maybe Aggies turned a corner of sorts and I'm out of the loop... but I doubt it ...
You got it right 
GL during the Bowls Bridge… 
BRIDGE PLAY
SOUTH ALABAMA -7.5
Hit this smaller -2.5 when it came out really just seemed like Jags would be the more likely team to keep things together and ride their momentum into the bowl game .. but now we have Austin Reed and his backup QB in the portal and by all accounts not playing leaving a the 3rd string FR QB as the lone guy w any reps .. at least one of their good WR's is going pro and while I don't know if he's playing it certainly doesn't seem like a situation he'd want to stick around for, trying to put on a showcase bowl game w a QB whose throw 4 passes in college .. there's a number of other guys who've hit the portal or declared and again can't say for sure if playing but starting to seem like a trend and part of that maybe coach Ty Helton seems to be on a short list for the Purdue job where Reed is portaling to and writing seems to be on the wall that he is interviwing around, bowl not on his mind I'd assume and players looking for their next best move .. playing in the bowl game likely not really it .. I could be wrong and everyone gives it one last hurrah and we'll be losing value although not a sure thing loss I wouldn't say ..
S.Bama was def one of those teams on a journey and they didn't quite make the conf champ game but finished 10-2 one of the best turnaround seasons and coaching jobs in some time .. only lost to Troy and UCLA .. wow! .. already sounds like the star RB La'danian Webb is sticking around for next year so if healthy I'd count him in and really such a team effort this year and a pretty good G5 competition I think they show up really wanting to cap off the season w a good number of guys coming back I believe .. besides the news on Webb I haven't heard anything from coaching news to NFL or the portal .. pretty good profile for a bowl pick IMO .. taking now because I could see this hit 10 or more pretty easily by kickoff .. good luck!
@BigTymePlayer25
Good stuff yeah I didn't even check there before posting, good catch .. didn't use MGM at all during the year .. but had some free bets because of the Air Force conf futures loss .. used it all on -7 .. I mean its no sure thing but really starting to look like a run on the bank at WKY .. maybe similar to what we had w Nevada last year .. coach technically still there but QB to Purdue and Purdue w an opening and i'm guessing fans would be happy to get him, think alot of worse ways their search could go .. but yeah good lookin out bud I spent all my freebies on -7, hope it works out!
SMALLER
HOUSTON -6.5
Really can't trust Holgersen too much to keep his team together when the chips are down .. recall crappy year they blow it vs Hawaii as 2 TD favs playing in Frisco I believe when Hawaii (back w graham of all people) who got a surprise bowl bid and had to travel all that way around the recuriting period and holidays etc showed up and beat the Coogs .. man talk about unprepared .. Coogs took it to Auburn for a W last year but that was off a monster season and clearly a bowl worthy of the team showing up for .. this is def in the middle and maybe more toward disappointment but my main keys here are no announced xfers yet and while their top weapon Nate Dell is going pro he says he's in for the bowl .. and I'd count on Tune showing up too guys been a rock for this team thru think n thin and he's got a Shrine Bowl invite and I'm guessing wants to show off as much as he can before the draft .. senior stars and NFL underclassmen getting together wanting to get it done is a really good signal in my view, not to mention last game as a G5 squad, you want to recruit like a P5 team you better look like a P5 team come recruitment time and def showcase the NFL potential in a game like this ..
Sounds like Louisiana is taking a tumble too losing a few guys off a pretty disappointing year .. ULL has one of their best defenders skipping for the NFL and Donte Flemming wasn't their best WR but a pretty solid one.. should be some excitement to play a bigger G5 name also in Shrievport LA so something to like for ULL here but after such a down year, clearly couldn't keep Billy's dynasty, barely competitive in the division and way off from the top teams, I'd expect some of their good players to be considering their options in the coming weeks and there's def a few good ones still around to plunder esp on D and anyone with talent on offense def gotta be rethinking their situation, cajuns offense really stunk this year .. all things considered can't BP this one gotta go smaller but def like the prospect of Houston showing up for a showcase of sorts .. we'll see ..
BRIDGE PLAY
EAST CAROLINA -9.5
Getting some of the favs to like out the way early but trying to be kinda smart about it here taking on teams we really like to show up vs the much more questionable ones out there .. ECU was on my radar as a play on last year because a bowl game has been a huge goal of this team since Mike Houston took over when the Pirates were just in the dregs of CFB .. Its been quite a journey rebuilding the roster and culture, esp on THAT fairly rabid fan base demands but finally got a team that could pull some W's in the AAC LY and made the bowl and .. it got cancelled .. no doubt in my mind they are coming in hot for this one and media quotes do seems to indicate as much after a kinda dud ending to the year its a real get the mojo back spot here .. and vs fellow G5 opponent worthy of showing up against and a fan base that's gunna be there and demand a big win this seems like an even more promising play on situation ..
Coastal with nearly a dream season totally fell apart at the end .. even w RUN GMC coming back kinda early from injury to play in the conf champ game and having a magnificent day they still got throttled .. didnt even win the division .. absolute deflator in my view .. now chadwell off to bigger and better paychecks at Liberty no doubt bringing everyone on his awesome staff with him .. already seen Josiah Stewart one of their 2 reallllllly good DL's hit the portal and sounds like Michigan is very interested .. just today Willie Lampkin an absolute rock on their OL which is so important to their success over the years hit the portal .. we're all kinda wondering what G-MC is gunna do here the line might be 14 if he's out or drop back to 7 if he's in .. I think he's a sure thing to xfer to Liberty w coach but just haven't heard it yet but he does piss teal so he says and maybe its a last hurrah w his bros .. I could see that but it feels like the champ game was that and there's no shame in hitting the portal pre-bowl the guy single handedly gave the program life and has done all he could and really a perfect time to hand the keys over give the next gen their shot no tarnish to the legacy whatsoever to move on .. I think its less than 50/50 he's in w decently solid upside if he's out and even if he's in this is tough to gauge whether coastal will be coordinated enough to be competitive .. not to mention plenty of other fairly talented players will be considering a change coming up after bringing in NC States OC as the new HC .. wolfpack had a terrible offense and think most everyone has to be thinking about a move to Liberty if they can ..
Goes to 10.5 as I'm writing was hoping to bag another bet before then lol .. not saying what to do but I moved the odds to -120 and took at 10 think its playable there as we are still waiting in the wings of what McCall might do ..
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