Def seems like points will be scored and wouldn't surprise me if Buff is really the one who drives them here, GA-SO is more/less throwing into the best part of buffalo's defense and buffalo's kinda sorta lack of a run game w out some of their best RB's might be fine with Eagles really crappy run D .. end of the day I'm not convinced the efficiencies are rolling at a high velocity here Eagle's D has been a little sticky at times during the year and on offense they'll be w/out a couple of their best WR's and looks like top RB is off the depth chart too .. rooting for Eagles and obvi lower than expected scoring .. good luck!
2
SMALLER
GA.SO / BUFFALO UNDER 67
Def seems like points will be scored and wouldn't surprise me if Buff is really the one who drives them here, GA-SO is more/less throwing into the best part of buffalo's defense and buffalo's kinda sorta lack of a run game w out some of their best RB's might be fine with Eagles really crappy run D .. end of the day I'm not convinced the efficiencies are rolling at a high velocity here Eagle's D has been a little sticky at times during the year and on offense they'll be w/out a couple of their best WR's and looks like top RB is off the depth chart too .. rooting for Eagles and obvi lower than expected scoring .. good luck!
This really feels like a bit of a tossup maybe edge Wisco with Allen in there but just looking down the list of all the guys out we got plenty of heavy hitters on both sides especially on D .. but Pokes DL was real deep and good coming in this year and there's 4 good starters up front and colin clay at backup makes me feel pretty good .. secondary been ugly this year but they're up against a real dud of an offensive pass game so can't point to much of an advantage .. obvi feel better if Sanders was in there (well sort of lol) but I think his departure is dragging this line Wisco's way and I'm not convinced the backups Ragel or Gundy Jr are even all that bad Gun Gun does have some wheels on him too .. ST gotta maybe advantage OK State much better this year and real legit ace kicker and otherwise models have them near tops among bowl teams outside the kick game .. and Wisco kinda so-so all around, BCF ranks em really low .. and coaching think we hand it to Gundy just always shows up with a competitive team in these spots .. thought I got a great line w Wisco last year -6.5 vs ASU last year devils felt like a dead team bowling seemed like sure thing wisco should smoke em and got the classic crappy wisco offense barely covered w the TD win but it was in the balance late in the game, wasn't impressed .. Trustin Gundy I got him 10-6 ATS in bowl games but on a run covering the last 6 and only one major let down ATS-wise in the last 10 years or so most losses are at least very close to covering .. that tells me at least these guys value their bowl opportunities not showing up like duds and this is one def worth showing up for .. and we have I think decently favorable line move from 3 to 4.5 so yeah worth a play .. good luck!
1
SMALLER
OKLAHOMA STATE +4.5
This really feels like a bit of a tossup maybe edge Wisco with Allen in there but just looking down the list of all the guys out we got plenty of heavy hitters on both sides especially on D .. but Pokes DL was real deep and good coming in this year and there's 4 good starters up front and colin clay at backup makes me feel pretty good .. secondary been ugly this year but they're up against a real dud of an offensive pass game so can't point to much of an advantage .. obvi feel better if Sanders was in there (well sort of lol) but I think his departure is dragging this line Wisco's way and I'm not convinced the backups Ragel or Gundy Jr are even all that bad Gun Gun does have some wheels on him too .. ST gotta maybe advantage OK State much better this year and real legit ace kicker and otherwise models have them near tops among bowl teams outside the kick game .. and Wisco kinda so-so all around, BCF ranks em really low .. and coaching think we hand it to Gundy just always shows up with a competitive team in these spots .. thought I got a great line w Wisco last year -6.5 vs ASU last year devils felt like a dead team bowling seemed like sure thing wisco should smoke em and got the classic crappy wisco offense barely covered w the TD win but it was in the balance late in the game, wasn't impressed .. Trustin Gundy I got him 10-6 ATS in bowl games but on a run covering the last 6 and only one major let down ATS-wise in the last 10 years or so most losses are at least very close to covering .. that tells me at least these guys value their bowl opportunities not showing up like duds and this is one def worth showing up for .. and we have I think decently favorable line move from 3 to 4.5 so yeah worth a play .. good luck!
Tempting fate again .. think it could be over half a hundo if everything is just hittin perfectly but as we've been seeing all thru bowl season things are often far from perfect .. buuuut longer the game goes the more I think the scoring might pop so let's cut out H2 and just play under this gigantic number .. as usual for these kinda plays, not huge .. good luck!
1
SMALLER
UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38
Tempting fate again .. think it could be over half a hundo if everything is just hittin perfectly but as we've been seeing all thru bowl season things are often far from perfect .. buuuut longer the game goes the more I think the scoring might pop so let's cut out H2 and just play under this gigantic number .. as usual for these kinda plays, not huge .. good luck!
SMALLER UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 Tempting fate again .. think it could be over half a hundo if everything is just hittin perfectly but as we've been seeing all thru bowl season things are often far from perfect .. buuuut longer the game goes the more I think the scoring might pop so let's cut out H2 and just play under this gigantic number .. as usual for these kinda plays, not huge .. good luck!
I was also thinking game under 75. Just waiting to see if it goes higher. Oregon lost receivers McGee and Thornton. I think one of the teams also lost their starting center. Can't remember which one. Anyway, that total seemed a tad high. Everything would have to go perfect with these offenses to reach that number.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
SMALLER UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 Tempting fate again .. think it could be over half a hundo if everything is just hittin perfectly but as we've been seeing all thru bowl season things are often far from perfect .. buuuut longer the game goes the more I think the scoring might pop so let's cut out H2 and just play under this gigantic number .. as usual for these kinda plays, not huge .. good luck!
I was also thinking game under 75. Just waiting to see if it goes higher. Oregon lost receivers McGee and Thornton. I think one of the teams also lost their starting center. Can't remember which one. Anyway, that total seemed a tad high. Everything would have to go perfect with these offenses to reach that number.
Agreed ... lot of moving parts and maybe things still click maybe not .. my best guess is if things arent clickin its right off the bat ..
Books sure don't know the value of grayson mccall huh .. crazy head landing knew he'd be out at least a little while woof .. was just busy hittin -6.5's and -7.5's as fast as possible knowing at worst I'd at least have a big H2 middle .. up 10 and -14 live that's not enough if G-MAC is really out rest of the way .. good luck!
0
@DrStrangelove
Agreed ... lot of moving parts and maybe things still click maybe not .. my best guess is if things arent clickin its right off the bat ..
Books sure don't know the value of grayson mccall huh .. crazy head landing knew he'd be out at least a little while woof .. was just busy hittin -6.5's and -7.5's as fast as possible knowing at worst I'd at least have a big H2 middle .. up 10 and -14 live that's not enough if G-MAC is really out rest of the way .. good luck!
mmm hit n miss so far 3-3 BP 5-5 SM .. time to make a run ..
BRIDGE PLAYS: AIR FORCE +4 LOUISVILLE -1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 UTSA/TROY OVER 54.5 BOWLING GREEN +1 S.ALABAMA -7.5 DUKE -3 KANSAS +3 TCU H1 +4.5 GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 FLORIDA STATE -7 S.DAKOTA STATE -3 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 N.MEXICO STATE +3.5 (mid) GA.SO / BUFFALO UNDER 67 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 L'VILLE/CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 BOISE / N.TEX UNDER 63.5 OKLAHOMA STATE +4.5 S.ALABAMA -4 SMU -4.5 TCU +9.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 PURDUE / LSU OVER 55.5 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 UTAH / PENN STATE UNDER 52.5 (mid) MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48
mmm hit n miss so far 3-3 BP 5-5 SM .. time to make a run ..
BRIDGE PLAYS: AIR FORCE +4 LOUISVILLE -1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 UTSA/TROY OVER 54.5 BOWLING GREEN +1 S.ALABAMA -7.5 DUKE -3 KANSAS +3 TCU H1 +4.5 GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 FLORIDA STATE -7 S.DAKOTA STATE -3 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 N.MEXICO STATE +3.5 (mid) GA.SO / BUFFALO UNDER 67 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 L'VILLE/CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 BOISE / N.TEX UNDER 63.5 OKLAHOMA STATE +4.5 S.ALABAMA -4 SMU -4.5 TCU +9.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 PURDUE / LSU OVER 55.5 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 UTAH / PENN STATE UNDER 52.5 (mid) MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48
Think we get a classic saban torture chamber just success running most of the day maybe they can pile the points on late but they should burn a bit of clock in their drives .. same for K-State wouldn't expect alot of major explosive plays against bama and with Anderson coming in head hunting might be real tough getting in FG position let alone capping things off w TD's .. Think we know Saban will try to demonstrate why K-State shouldn't be on the same field as these guys and proceed to blow them out .. however its tough to trust the eventual outcome maybe Bama's offense throttles maybe not, it does seem like Saban wouldn't fool around as much passing to a somewhat depleted receiving group and focus more on the classic run game where they always have a solid advantage .. again just feels like fewer possessions all around and K-State fairly inexplosive anyway ..
1
SMALLERs
BAMA / K-STATE H1 UNDER 28
K-STATE TT UNDER 24.5
Think we get a classic saban torture chamber just success running most of the day maybe they can pile the points on late but they should burn a bit of clock in their drives .. same for K-State wouldn't expect alot of major explosive plays against bama and with Anderson coming in head hunting might be real tough getting in FG position let alone capping things off w TD's .. Think we know Saban will try to demonstrate why K-State shouldn't be on the same field as these guys and proceed to blow them out .. however its tough to trust the eventual outcome maybe Bama's offense throttles maybe not, it does seem like Saban wouldn't fool around as much passing to a somewhat depleted receiving group and focus more on the classic run game where they always have a solid advantage .. again just feels like fewer possessions all around and K-State fairly inexplosive anyway ..
Uncomfortable play but its gunna be a decent enough advantage on defense and special teams IMO and we've got the 2 awesome TE's still .. Hawkeyes were in this same position last year and were the better team IMO and that was with a much better UK team with a vastly better offense and D than we're dealing with here .. I did also hear the new Hawkeye QB is really not a total dud either and with a couple targets to throw at maybe its a coin flip in terms of which O can generate a few plays maybe Iowa works out better we'll see .. just gunna rely on the quality on D, unit that isin't necessarily deep but have played together almost every snap this year and many for a few years now, legit bond among them .. and ST's is one of the best in the country .. think the edge will be there .. obvi more comfort in taking a ML but just gunna lay the 2 and x my fingers a little .. Good luck!
1
SMALLER
IOWA -2
Uncomfortable play but its gunna be a decent enough advantage on defense and special teams IMO and we've got the 2 awesome TE's still .. Hawkeyes were in this same position last year and were the better team IMO and that was with a much better UK team with a vastly better offense and D than we're dealing with here .. I did also hear the new Hawkeye QB is really not a total dud either and with a couple targets to throw at maybe its a coin flip in terms of which O can generate a few plays maybe Iowa works out better we'll see .. just gunna rely on the quality on D, unit that isin't necessarily deep but have played together almost every snap this year and many for a few years now, legit bond among them .. and ST's is one of the best in the country .. think the edge will be there .. obvi more comfort in taking a ML but just gunna lay the 2 and x my fingers a little .. Good luck!
SMALLER MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48 TENNESSEE +7 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5
One down .. Feelin not too bad on the others locked in the best number for Tenn but man it does kinda feel like Clem has a young Trevor and Tenn basically sitting on another DJ Fat Ass not to mention a beatable D in just every way .. So i got no problem doing taking the side I prefer and grabbing a nice middle for part of it in the process ..
BRIDGE PLAY
CLEMSON -3.5
Wish we could get it to 3 but seems that'll take a mammoth degen push and idk the smarter books out there seem to be stuck at -4 not interested in dipping further .. maybe 3 shows up pre-kick but my sense is it moves up to 4.5 or more .. Klubnick big game solid DL to harrass Tenn's QB, and we saw the renewed energy the moment Klub came in .. guy we can trust .. was thinking hit the lower 60.5 total but idk can't realllllly trust Milton yet can we he could get em there and think they might but we've just seen wayyyyy too many bowl games that should post a high total fizzle out and think its possible Tenn's offense might do that here or we're just xx'ing our fingers for too much of the game .. If liking the total I'd see if we can get a slower opening and take a shot late Q1 or something w the total down mid 50's or so .. -3.5 is at Caesars and pointsbet and maybe a few others but not many .. just my guess but if wanting on that number I'd grab sooner than later .. Good luck!
1
SMALLER MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48 TENNESSEE +7 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5
One down .. Feelin not too bad on the others locked in the best number for Tenn but man it does kinda feel like Clem has a young Trevor and Tenn basically sitting on another DJ Fat Ass not to mention a beatable D in just every way .. So i got no problem doing taking the side I prefer and grabbing a nice middle for part of it in the process ..
BRIDGE PLAY
CLEMSON -3.5
Wish we could get it to 3 but seems that'll take a mammoth degen push and idk the smarter books out there seem to be stuck at -4 not interested in dipping further .. maybe 3 shows up pre-kick but my sense is it moves up to 4.5 or more .. Klubnick big game solid DL to harrass Tenn's QB, and we saw the renewed energy the moment Klub came in .. guy we can trust .. was thinking hit the lower 60.5 total but idk can't realllllly trust Milton yet can we he could get em there and think they might but we've just seen wayyyyy too many bowl games that should post a high total fizzle out and think its possible Tenn's offense might do that here or we're just xx'ing our fingers for too much of the game .. If liking the total I'd see if we can get a slower opening and take a shot late Q1 or something w the total down mid 50's or so .. -3.5 is at Caesars and pointsbet and maybe a few others but not many .. just my guess but if wanting on that number I'd grab sooner than later .. Good luck!
BRIDGE PLAYS: DUKE -3 KANSAS +3 AIR FORCE +4 LOUISVILLE -1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 UTSA/TROY OVER 54.5 BOWLING GREEN +1 FLORIDA STATE -7 S.ALABAMA -7.5 CLEMSON -3.5 TCU H1 +4.5 GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 S.DAKOTA STATE -3 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: IOWA -2 MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 K-STATE TT UNDER 24.5 N.MEXICO STATE +3.5 (mid) GA.SO / BUFFALO UNDER 67 UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48 L'VILLE/CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 BAMA / K-STATE H1 UNDER 28 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BOISE / N.TEX UNDER 63.5 OKLAHOMA STATE +4.5 S.ALABAMA -4 SMU -4.5 TCU +9.5 PURDUE / LSU OVER 55.5 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 UTAH / PENN STATE UNDER 52.5 (mid)
BRIDGE PLAYS: DUKE -3 KANSAS +3 AIR FORCE +4 LOUISVILLE -1 EAST CAROLINA -9.5 UTSA/TROY OVER 54.5 BOWLING GREEN +1 FLORIDA STATE -7 S.ALABAMA -7.5 CLEMSON -3.5 TCU H1 +4.5 GEORGIA -6.5 ILLINOIS -1.5 S.DAKOTA STATE -3 GEORGIA -7.5 (VS MICH NATTY)
SMALLER: IOWA -2 MEMPHIS -7 HOUSTON -6.5 TENNESSEE +7 WASHINGTON +6 K-STATE TT UNDER 24.5 N.MEXICO STATE +3.5 (mid) GA.SO / BUFFALO UNDER 67 UNC / OREGON H1 UNDER 38 LIBERTY / TOLEDO UNDER 53.5 MARYLAND/NC STATE UNDER 48 L'VILLE/CINCY H1 UNDER 21.5 BAMA / K-STATE H1 UNDER 28 BAMA / K-STATE UNDER 54.5 CLEMSON / TENN OVER 64.5 BOISE / N.TEX UNDER 63.5 OKLAHOMA STATE +4.5 S.ALABAMA -4 SMU -4.5 TCU +9.5 PURDUE / LSU OVER 55.5 UTAH / PENN STATE OVER 47.5 UTAH / PENN STATE UNDER 52.5 (mid)
Wish I could take back my ILL pick lol hit that so early before all the things happened on both teams .. well I don't hate it but yeah def seems like MISS.State is the team kinda destined to show up motivated to win that one .. and I put this one at about that level of motivation for Tulane and expect it to be solid enough to get a win here .. USC got throttled vs a really good run team in Utah just exposed in that one and I think we see that happen again here and best part of Wave's D is their pass D which, we'll see, should give them a chance to get off the field .. getting +2 for being G5'ers when they should be -1 to -3 in my view .. good luck!
1
BRIDGE PLAY
TULANE +2
Wish I could take back my ILL pick lol hit that so early before all the things happened on both teams .. well I don't hate it but yeah def seems like MISS.State is the team kinda destined to show up motivated to win that one .. and I put this one at about that level of motivation for Tulane and expect it to be solid enough to get a win here .. USC got throttled vs a really good run team in Utah just exposed in that one and I think we see that happen again here and best part of Wave's D is their pass D which, we'll see, should give them a chance to get off the field .. getting +2 for being G5'ers when they should be -1 to -3 in my view .. good luck!
Got the middle between 47.5 and 53 but at this point im taking a real position we got a push from the other games IMO lotta over money now and just too many points IMO .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
UTAH / PENN STATE UNDER 55
Got the middle between 47.5 and 53 but at this point im taking a real position we got a push from the other games IMO lotta over money now and just too many points IMO .. good luck!
Already hit S.DAKOTA STATE -3 for the BRIDGE PLAY so not for the record but just hit the ML -190 which is what we get when the odds are -4 when the current line is -5 .. I think this is closer to -7 or -7.5 and trimmed down because it's NDSU .. not saying lay the points because SDSU coach may play conservative and angle for just a small win or give up a late backdoor score but I find it hard to imagine SDSU really loses this game .. think if 190 isin't around you could be comfortable taking -200 which is basically like 66% win prob whereas I think its closer to 75%, wins 3/4 times or -300 is where it should be .. SO .. my additional play here is SDSU ML -190.
That said if playing for fun on SDSU not wanting to lay odds I could see -3 H1 get that to a 1 score I think we'll be good early on for that .. and I think there's a chance at a decently big win if SDSU can really corner their run game .. NDSU w their best offensive weapon FB Lupeke out and 1 and maybe 2 of their RB rotation and an OL that already has 2 injuries and the depth chart shows one of the starters is the backup at 2 other spots .. basically any injury or sub and its gunna be w guys who have taken minimal garbage time reps this year at best .. so I do think there's a way for SDSU to corner these guys offensively if they can stop that run which they were able to at least stunt when they played in the fargo dome earlier this year and came back and win .. if so think we could see a prettttty decent sized win and maybe a fun move is laying more points and taking odds .. wouldn't go too wild but for fun why not ..
If liking NDSU I have to think take the TT and I'd look for it at 20 if possible .. They'll need to find a way to make the run game work or I think its lights out and maybe see some decent heroics from the QB .. I just don't see them staying within a TD unless they can get to 20 points and obvi NDSU backers are gunna be pounding the ML and maybe taking points too which is why we're getting what I see is a fairly good deal for SDSU on those numbers .. but yeah hard to see NDSU keeping SDSU under 23 and 17-23 is a spread loser at the moment I think they need 20 to at least to cover and even if so they could still get past 20 points and not cover so my advice would be just stick to a TT on the Bizon if playing them ..
Good luck!
1
FCS NATTY CHAT ..
Already hit S.DAKOTA STATE -3 for the BRIDGE PLAY so not for the record but just hit the ML -190 which is what we get when the odds are -4 when the current line is -5 .. I think this is closer to -7 or -7.5 and trimmed down because it's NDSU .. not saying lay the points because SDSU coach may play conservative and angle for just a small win or give up a late backdoor score but I find it hard to imagine SDSU really loses this game .. think if 190 isin't around you could be comfortable taking -200 which is basically like 66% win prob whereas I think its closer to 75%, wins 3/4 times or -300 is where it should be .. SO .. my additional play here is SDSU ML -190.
That said if playing for fun on SDSU not wanting to lay odds I could see -3 H1 get that to a 1 score I think we'll be good early on for that .. and I think there's a chance at a decently big win if SDSU can really corner their run game .. NDSU w their best offensive weapon FB Lupeke out and 1 and maybe 2 of their RB rotation and an OL that already has 2 injuries and the depth chart shows one of the starters is the backup at 2 other spots .. basically any injury or sub and its gunna be w guys who have taken minimal garbage time reps this year at best .. so I do think there's a way for SDSU to corner these guys offensively if they can stop that run which they were able to at least stunt when they played in the fargo dome earlier this year and came back and win .. if so think we could see a prettttty decent sized win and maybe a fun move is laying more points and taking odds .. wouldn't go too wild but for fun why not ..
If liking NDSU I have to think take the TT and I'd look for it at 20 if possible .. They'll need to find a way to make the run game work or I think its lights out and maybe see some decent heroics from the QB .. I just don't see them staying within a TD unless they can get to 20 points and obvi NDSU backers are gunna be pounding the ML and maybe taking points too which is why we're getting what I see is a fairly good deal for SDSU on those numbers .. but yeah hard to see NDSU keeping SDSU under 23 and 17-23 is a spread loser at the moment I think they need 20 to at least to cover and even if so they could still get past 20 points and not cover so my advice would be just stick to a TT on the Bizon if playing them ..
I’m still kicking myself that I didn’t take the one out of six shops that opened -125 ML to add to my position (Futures ticket). About a day later it’s -150 to -155 at most shops. Decided to take the -3 +105 then instead.
-190 is a little steep, but should win. Love the in-game Under idea as well, but you already knew that.
0
@Bridge1
I’m still kicking myself that I didn’t take the one out of six shops that opened -125 ML to add to my position (Futures ticket). About a day later it’s -150 to -155 at most shops. Decided to take the -3 +105 then instead.
-190 is a little steep, but should win. Love the in-game Under idea as well, but you already knew that.
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