S.Car D looks like maybe a real big surprise this year they overcame a few injuries LY and every unit looks to be in good shape .. the missing link last yr was an effective pass rusher and they got another freak in true FR Dylan Stewart Phil marched him right to the starting spot on the depth chart and 6'6 250 ... "Most impressive guy on defense" Beamer after the spring gm .. total freak put em on yer dude list .. most everything else is back and pressn units all rank very well .. ODU gave up 61 sacks last yr 10 to wake forest, 8 to FCS TAMU Commerce and GA-St .. nobody known for their amazing pass rush .. can't be that bad again but I don't see ODU faring well in the trenches on either side .. ODU actually managed to be a dangerous offense in spite of the horrible OL LY they run basically the tennessee wide split offense and we hope S.Car doesn't F around giving up big plays or get busted up the gut .. ODU losing the 2 RB's wicks and Calloway won't be a help here tho ..
Unfortunately we lose our outstanding ST Coach to Buffalo .. new HC there .. but the super leg punter is back and the fruit didn't fall far from the Beamer Ball tree they won't suddenly suck after being the top ST team 2YA and solid again last yr ..
This feels like one we'd normally get in the 20's if SCar didn't have such a bum year .. they do well at home and 6-0 ATS in the home opener vs G5 spots back to 2010 .. Beamer really needs the big year, fans will really wanna see La Norris take off and practically DEMANDING by now that they see a BOMB TD to Harbor and first game vs an all new secondary yeah I think we'll see a couple big shots down field en route to a big win .. w 2 VERY IMPORTANT SEC games on deck I'd def wanna give their DC's some things to plan for right away, dont think its giving away their secret sauce either I'd make sure all that was on tape for em and make em sweat .. we'll see .. good luck!
1
^^S.Car Cont'd ..
S.Car D looks like maybe a real big surprise this year they overcame a few injuries LY and every unit looks to be in good shape .. the missing link last yr was an effective pass rusher and they got another freak in true FR Dylan Stewart Phil marched him right to the starting spot on the depth chart and 6'6 250 ... "Most impressive guy on defense" Beamer after the spring gm .. total freak put em on yer dude list .. most everything else is back and pressn units all rank very well .. ODU gave up 61 sacks last yr 10 to wake forest, 8 to FCS TAMU Commerce and GA-St .. nobody known for their amazing pass rush .. can't be that bad again but I don't see ODU faring well in the trenches on either side .. ODU actually managed to be a dangerous offense in spite of the horrible OL LY they run basically the tennessee wide split offense and we hope S.Car doesn't F around giving up big plays or get busted up the gut .. ODU losing the 2 RB's wicks and Calloway won't be a help here tho ..
Unfortunately we lose our outstanding ST Coach to Buffalo .. new HC there .. but the super leg punter is back and the fruit didn't fall far from the Beamer Ball tree they won't suddenly suck after being the top ST team 2YA and solid again last yr ..
This feels like one we'd normally get in the 20's if SCar didn't have such a bum year .. they do well at home and 6-0 ATS in the home opener vs G5 spots back to 2010 .. Beamer really needs the big year, fans will really wanna see La Norris take off and practically DEMANDING by now that they see a BOMB TD to Harbor and first game vs an all new secondary yeah I think we'll see a couple big shots down field en route to a big win .. w 2 VERY IMPORTANT SEC games on deck I'd def wanna give their DC's some things to plan for right away, dont think its giving away their secret sauce either I'd make sure all that was on tape for em and make em sweat .. we'll see .. good luck!
SMALLER UNC @ MINNY -1.5 PENN ST @ W.VIRGINIA +10.5 OLD DOM @ S.CAROLINA -17.5 VA TECH @ VANDY UNDER 55.5 NC ST +10 @ CLEM WK 4 UNC -3 @ DUKE WK 5 NC ST - PK @ UNC WK 14
SSN WINS: UCLA UNDER 5.5 +120 LSU UNDER 9.5 -110 VANDY OVER 2.5 -120 E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150 GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175 GA SOUTHER OVER 5 -115 MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115 INDIANA OVER 5.5 +125
CONF: CAL 50-1 SMU 22-1 NC STATE 12-1 IOWA STATE 12-1 E. CAROLINA 16-1 W.MICHIGAN 10-1 GA SOUTHERN 25-1 ARIZONA STATE 100-1
SMALLER UNC @ MINNY -1.5 PENN ST @ W.VIRGINIA +10.5 OLD DOM @ S.CAROLINA -17.5 VA TECH @ VANDY UNDER 55.5 NC ST +10 @ CLEM WK 4 UNC -3 @ DUKE WK 5 NC ST - PK @ UNC WK 14
SSN WINS: UCLA UNDER 5.5 +120 LSU UNDER 9.5 -110 VANDY OVER 2.5 -120 E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150 GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175 GA SOUTHER OVER 5 -115 MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115 INDIANA OVER 5.5 +125
CONF: CAL 50-1 SMU 22-1 NC STATE 12-1 IOWA STATE 12-1 E. CAROLINA 16-1 W.MICHIGAN 10-1 GA SOUTHERN 25-1 ARIZONA STATE 100-1
We got -120 and thereabouts available I'd try to land it before it moves above the 130's I think this will end up moving well beyond that think it ends like -140 or -150 some books maybe move to 6 or make it annoyingly expensive .. I put alot of notes in the SCAR -18 vs ODU play 3 days ago .. which is 20/20.5 now woop woop .. but big picture the offensive units go from horrific outside QB to pretty decent looking... not bad .. maybe w the right schemes and playcalling they turn in a real surprise? .. all the units outside QB and OL land in Phil's top 20 I believe .. even RB and WR, which is a little surprising he'd put them there after the ugly offensive yr but I don't disagree either .. very tough to assure ourselves where things land on O because its a major turnaround projected and lotta new faces and guys injured LY back, obvi new QB rattler gone and La Norris we've seen minimally so far .. gotta say I wouldn't be dying to play a dude that size that can move like he does, total weapon that you gotta account for on every play .. The concern I'd have here is obvi injured guys who aren't fully recovered make us not have turnaround high functioning units .. other maybe bigger concern is LaNorris is a true dual threat and could get injured, we saw AR-15 pull his hammy in a gm sent him down basically the ssn .. backup is Robby Ashford and its a concern if he gotta go win us a real game but it doesn't kill us like Memphis losing Henny would he's 2 yrs experienced running an offense designed for his skill set .. we def can find worse backup QB situations in the world ..
Defense goes from unsung heroes saving what woulda been an EPIC HORRIBLE year to now having a ton back and got some good xfers in the door big recruits ready to impact, just very shored up .. they were missing a pass rush last year and the DE spot looks very improved with the 5 star FR and experienced portalers giving them the makings of a turnaround unit .. The D looks real good I'd say CB is a semi ? its a unit that lost a stud and with 1 starter back and min experience iffy talent ratings for the SEC .. Safety / NB looks great w the starters and min experience behind them but some decent prospects in the unit I think a decent rotation will emerge .. so concerns, yes, but they don't really stack up on each other and could be no concern at all this yr .. LB, DE, DL looks like a solid strength maybe a real surprise this yr .. They do lose the very good ST-Coord but lot of that know how and big leg punter are back and Beamer won't stop playin Beamer Ball so I wouldn't expect ST's to go sour on us ..
Schedule has 3 wins on it already .. ODU, Akron and FCS Wofford .. and normally would count @Vandy but it really is a nasty road spot, that dude like Pavia might go Hero on us .. still I like our chances .. count it 3 in the bag 1 very likely .. gotta go 2-6 from there and I think this team stacks up decently well going @Kentucky and then home vs LSU before their bye week .. its a tough slate from there but lottttta these spots get real jerky for the opponents w big game sammiches and S.Car off a bye week .. Ole Miss goes to Columbia between Kentucky and LSU, SCAR off a bye .. monster gm .. @Bama after rivals vandy / Tenn on deck .. @OU after the horns, Ole miss on deck .. Tamu off biiig LSU home gm goes to Columbia for a night gm, S.Car off a bye .. Mizzoo in that spot Tenn was in a few yrs back when they imploded .. @Clem finale is tough but not unwinnable .. tooooo many distressed spots and team ready for a real turnaround .. think its a hard floor at 5 wins .. but maaaan it could be a real fun year in Columbia if things click n the chips fall their way a little bit ..
0
SSN WINS
S.CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -120
We got -120 and thereabouts available I'd try to land it before it moves above the 130's I think this will end up moving well beyond that think it ends like -140 or -150 some books maybe move to 6 or make it annoyingly expensive .. I put alot of notes in the SCAR -18 vs ODU play 3 days ago .. which is 20/20.5 now woop woop .. but big picture the offensive units go from horrific outside QB to pretty decent looking... not bad .. maybe w the right schemes and playcalling they turn in a real surprise? .. all the units outside QB and OL land in Phil's top 20 I believe .. even RB and WR, which is a little surprising he'd put them there after the ugly offensive yr but I don't disagree either .. very tough to assure ourselves where things land on O because its a major turnaround projected and lotta new faces and guys injured LY back, obvi new QB rattler gone and La Norris we've seen minimally so far .. gotta say I wouldn't be dying to play a dude that size that can move like he does, total weapon that you gotta account for on every play .. The concern I'd have here is obvi injured guys who aren't fully recovered make us not have turnaround high functioning units .. other maybe bigger concern is LaNorris is a true dual threat and could get injured, we saw AR-15 pull his hammy in a gm sent him down basically the ssn .. backup is Robby Ashford and its a concern if he gotta go win us a real game but it doesn't kill us like Memphis losing Henny would he's 2 yrs experienced running an offense designed for his skill set .. we def can find worse backup QB situations in the world ..
Defense goes from unsung heroes saving what woulda been an EPIC HORRIBLE year to now having a ton back and got some good xfers in the door big recruits ready to impact, just very shored up .. they were missing a pass rush last year and the DE spot looks very improved with the 5 star FR and experienced portalers giving them the makings of a turnaround unit .. The D looks real good I'd say CB is a semi ? its a unit that lost a stud and with 1 starter back and min experience iffy talent ratings for the SEC .. Safety / NB looks great w the starters and min experience behind them but some decent prospects in the unit I think a decent rotation will emerge .. so concerns, yes, but they don't really stack up on each other and could be no concern at all this yr .. LB, DE, DL looks like a solid strength maybe a real surprise this yr .. They do lose the very good ST-Coord but lot of that know how and big leg punter are back and Beamer won't stop playin Beamer Ball so I wouldn't expect ST's to go sour on us ..
Schedule has 3 wins on it already .. ODU, Akron and FCS Wofford .. and normally would count @Vandy but it really is a nasty road spot, that dude like Pavia might go Hero on us .. still I like our chances .. count it 3 in the bag 1 very likely .. gotta go 2-6 from there and I think this team stacks up decently well going @Kentucky and then home vs LSU before their bye week .. its a tough slate from there but lottttta these spots get real jerky for the opponents w big game sammiches and S.Car off a bye week .. Ole Miss goes to Columbia between Kentucky and LSU, SCAR off a bye .. monster gm .. @Bama after rivals vandy / Tenn on deck .. @OU after the horns, Ole miss on deck .. Tamu off biiig LSU home gm goes to Columbia for a night gm, S.Car off a bye .. Mizzoo in that spot Tenn was in a few yrs back when they imploded .. @Clem finale is tough but not unwinnable .. tooooo many distressed spots and team ready for a real turnaround .. think its a hard floor at 5 wins .. but maaaan it could be a real fun year in Columbia if things click n the chips fall their way a little bit ..
I can't believe I'm saying this... But at the #, I'm extremely high on Iowa this year. You're telling me 8-4 wins the bet? What am I missing? Defense should be dynamite and offense can't be worse with key returning pieces and finally non nepo (assuredly better but maybe less than inspiring) OC. Schedule will not leave them flat footed too often against better athletes (always the concern).
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Bridge. I like the look on LSU. Tailed on 9.5.
I can't believe I'm saying this... But at the #, I'm extremely high on Iowa this year. You're telling me 8-4 wins the bet? What am I missing? Defense should be dynamite and offense can't be worse with key returning pieces and finally non nepo (assuredly better but maybe less than inspiring) OC. Schedule will not leave them flat footed too often against better athletes (always the concern).
On the reverse side, Maryland was the play but I let 7.5 skip to 6.5. schedule too easy to go with gut, they still have pockets of talent. However Nebraska is doing their yearly steam... Let that get to 8 and ...
1
On the reverse side, Maryland was the play but I let 7.5 skip to 6.5. schedule too easy to go with gut, they still have pockets of talent. However Nebraska is doing their yearly steam... Let that get to 8 and ...
For what it's worth ha - that's Phil Steele's favorite totals play (Iowa over). Maybe mine too - hell they'll be favored in probably 11 games - 10 at minimum.
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
1
@JozKnows
For what it's worth ha - that's Phil Steele's favorite totals play (Iowa over). Maybe mine too - hell they'll be favored in probably 11 games - 10 at minimum.
Did he mention that in his mag or separately? I feel pretty good about a Phil and a BA endorsement.
@Bridge neglected to mention the low side pick of UCLA was great, I was too late to the party. Everything juiced to high heavens or 5 flat. Have to pass at -168
0
@bookieassassin
Did he mention that in his mag or separately? I feel pretty good about a Phil and a BA endorsement.
@Bridge neglected to mention the low side pick of UCLA was great, I was too late to the party. Everything juiced to high heavens or 5 flat. Have to pass at -168
Sup Joz, good reads on MD yeah I looked at that early was on my to-do list and let the good number pass unfortunately 7.5 was a good spot to play that one .. im not at all opposed to smackin them in season though we'll get it back .. believe Gattis is still OC there and recall he pitched a total dud at Miami .. I didn't think they were really all that special last year with Tua Jr and a decent cast and we'll get a gander at what they can do early on .. maybe Mich State is still charting their course in week 2 and MD looking capable w 2 wins heading into that roadie vs UVA, an old rivalry that was revived last yr, and MD smacked em down baaaad LY in what was a real nasty spot team in dissaray again and Tenn beat the crap out of em for 60 mins, QB hurt then good tough show vs JMU came up a little short then gotta go Friday night into MD Terps were off FCS and Charlotte ready to pounce .. not a total reversal on the spot here but at least more even heading into it and UVA should be in good shape to host a big sat night game maybe return the favor we'll see.. Biiig gm for da Cavs ..
0
@JozKnows
Sup Joz, good reads on MD yeah I looked at that early was on my to-do list and let the good number pass unfortunately 7.5 was a good spot to play that one .. im not at all opposed to smackin them in season though we'll get it back .. believe Gattis is still OC there and recall he pitched a total dud at Miami .. I didn't think they were really all that special last year with Tua Jr and a decent cast and we'll get a gander at what they can do early on .. maybe Mich State is still charting their course in week 2 and MD looking capable w 2 wins heading into that roadie vs UVA, an old rivalry that was revived last yr, and MD smacked em down baaaad LY in what was a real nasty spot team in dissaray again and Tenn beat the crap out of em for 60 mins, QB hurt then good tough show vs JMU came up a little short then gotta go Friday night into MD Terps were off FCS and Charlotte ready to pounce .. not a total reversal on the spot here but at least more even heading into it and UVA should be in good shape to host a big sat night game maybe return the favor we'll see.. Biiig gm for da Cavs ..
Not talkin ya out of Iowa you got the number you like it go for it .. and you been pretty good hittin the ones you like .. I haven't really delved into Iowa but I think I'm gunna take my chances with them in ssn ..
Wanna see what the new OC can do I get it, lit anything is better but its like 4 years too late to expect a sudden turn and if we want a play that avoids some profuse sweating then so much of a ssn win bet hinges on that and the offense .. the numbers for Cade last yr were not good .. 56% vs Utah st .. 54% vs Iowa St .. 47% 2-2 103 yds, sacked 4 times by W.Mich .. a D that got blown to smithereens by Cuse the week before.. what in the world .. and w him we're auto down a weapon since he's never been mobile and no chance he will be this yr major major risk there sullivan stinks .. they obvi lacked receiving targets LY and they will again, Kaleb Brown and TE Lechey are the main guys .. the other WR phil has is former FCS guy started 8 games LY .. 150 yds and maybe the promise w him is like 1/3 of it was vs utah st but idk .. lost top targets Riganni and Eric All .. I mean there's at least 1 and maybe 2 starting B10 WR spots and prob 2 more backups open right now and looks like NOBODY in the portal returned their calls.. except NU xfer caleb gill who was thrown at twice last year for 11 yds ... im just not convinced that new OC + C-MAC in all year is the big change agent they've been waiting for on offense .. the OL returns the crew once again it was only a little bit better LY its gotta be better and they aren't exactly huge and the backup OL-T's phil have no exp and both <300 lbs .. O is thin at every spot I'd wanna hear how it goes in fall camp and make sure there's no key injuries or hear that Kaleb got a 2nd DUI and will be out a while ..
lost B2B AA punter 86 punts LY 10 more than anyone else.. new true fr is from australia im sure he's talented but elite punting vs avg punting was likely the diff in quite a few games last couple yrs.. 4th round pick, highest drafted punter since 2000 .. I'd check back in the fall and make sure the new guy is ready to step in ..
im not as gaga over the schedule either .. LY had Mich St, NU, Iowa St, Purdue, Wisco, Minny, Neb, ILL, 8 teams in what I would consider a real slump of year LY .. Clones got their act together late but were in a baaad situation early on .. I got IA.St, @Minny, @Mich St, Wisco on a likely up swing and good chance to be competitive .. maaaybe NU we'll see they're not bowling for PAT this yr .. Wash we'll see could be ugly .. @MD .. @UCLA are not my favs teams but those are late in the year on the road and maybe playing diff.. my hope is UCLA is out of a bowl but might need this one and play hard .. MD is likely needing it for a bowl .. that's always a dangerous sitch.. Wisco and Neb will show up no matter what, always a battle good to have those two at home .. but yeah any key injury for Iowa on offense could really add some variability to how things look late in the yr .. I've mostly been playing overs where I think the backup could carry the team it's served me well so far .. so Iowa is the opposite of that and yeah this one just aint for me .. but good luck however you play it buddy!
1
@JozKnows
Not talkin ya out of Iowa you got the number you like it go for it .. and you been pretty good hittin the ones you like .. I haven't really delved into Iowa but I think I'm gunna take my chances with them in ssn ..
Wanna see what the new OC can do I get it, lit anything is better but its like 4 years too late to expect a sudden turn and if we want a play that avoids some profuse sweating then so much of a ssn win bet hinges on that and the offense .. the numbers for Cade last yr were not good .. 56% vs Utah st .. 54% vs Iowa St .. 47% 2-2 103 yds, sacked 4 times by W.Mich .. a D that got blown to smithereens by Cuse the week before.. what in the world .. and w him we're auto down a weapon since he's never been mobile and no chance he will be this yr major major risk there sullivan stinks .. they obvi lacked receiving targets LY and they will again, Kaleb Brown and TE Lechey are the main guys .. the other WR phil has is former FCS guy started 8 games LY .. 150 yds and maybe the promise w him is like 1/3 of it was vs utah st but idk .. lost top targets Riganni and Eric All .. I mean there's at least 1 and maybe 2 starting B10 WR spots and prob 2 more backups open right now and looks like NOBODY in the portal returned their calls.. except NU xfer caleb gill who was thrown at twice last year for 11 yds ... im just not convinced that new OC + C-MAC in all year is the big change agent they've been waiting for on offense .. the OL returns the crew once again it was only a little bit better LY its gotta be better and they aren't exactly huge and the backup OL-T's phil have no exp and both <300 lbs .. O is thin at every spot I'd wanna hear how it goes in fall camp and make sure there's no key injuries or hear that Kaleb got a 2nd DUI and will be out a while ..
lost B2B AA punter 86 punts LY 10 more than anyone else.. new true fr is from australia im sure he's talented but elite punting vs avg punting was likely the diff in quite a few games last couple yrs.. 4th round pick, highest drafted punter since 2000 .. I'd check back in the fall and make sure the new guy is ready to step in ..
im not as gaga over the schedule either .. LY had Mich St, NU, Iowa St, Purdue, Wisco, Minny, Neb, ILL, 8 teams in what I would consider a real slump of year LY .. Clones got their act together late but were in a baaad situation early on .. I got IA.St, @Minny, @Mich St, Wisco on a likely up swing and good chance to be competitive .. maaaybe NU we'll see they're not bowling for PAT this yr .. Wash we'll see could be ugly .. @MD .. @UCLA are not my favs teams but those are late in the year on the road and maybe playing diff.. my hope is UCLA is out of a bowl but might need this one and play hard .. MD is likely needing it for a bowl .. that's always a dangerous sitch.. Wisco and Neb will show up no matter what, always a battle good to have those two at home .. but yeah any key injury for Iowa on offense could really add some variability to how things look late in the yr .. I've mostly been playing overs where I think the backup could carry the team it's served me well so far .. so Iowa is the opposite of that and yeah this one just aint for me .. but good luck however you play it buddy!
Thanks for the analysis. I'm already sunk on Iowa but it's a strong point about depth and skill talent outside the RB/TE (phone booth). I like it a little less post your analysis but 8-4 seems imminently doable for them. They won 9 last year with literally the worst passing game imaginable, then you make a great point about their elite punting. Many of which were variable games... Loss Minny on a punt return, won many by 1 possession, somehow. We will see. I chalked clones as an L to be conservative but Iowa has a way of beating them no matter what.
Love that @UVA spot for Maryland and a great chance to fade them forward @Indy and if they somehow string together 6-0, 5-1, they've gotta deal with USC as a first real test. Feels like typical Terp hype spot where the turtle head is a Turd poking out. Don't sleep in UConn with the points in week one, it's already gone down but this Maryland offense without Talia may be UGLY
0
@Bridge1
Thanks for the analysis. I'm already sunk on Iowa but it's a strong point about depth and skill talent outside the RB/TE (phone booth). I like it a little less post your analysis but 8-4 seems imminently doable for them. They won 9 last year with literally the worst passing game imaginable, then you make a great point about their elite punting. Many of which were variable games... Loss Minny on a punt return, won many by 1 possession, somehow. We will see. I chalked clones as an L to be conservative but Iowa has a way of beating them no matter what.
Love that @UVA spot for Maryland and a great chance to fade them forward @Indy and if they somehow string together 6-0, 5-1, they've gotta deal with USC as a first real test. Feels like typical Terp hype spot where the turtle head is a Turd poking out. Don't sleep in UConn with the points in week one, it's already gone down but this Maryland offense without Talia may be UGLY
Was -120 yesterday and waited and now yeah chasin it .. might not be -135 or better out there I'd want closer to even for 6 since its tough to see a flood more wins than that and might have to wait for the right odds till later before the ssn starts.. this opened 6.5 and just in no way could I play that number over so patience can pay sometimes .. I think folks started looking over the strength of the ACC and some of the maybe wins turned a little less likely ..
Big picture we loved CAL coming into last year BIIIIG play for me and looking back I jumped the gun with my hopes that the QB situation was sorted out .. it was anything but .. had to watch them struggle to 3-3 and eekin out a win vs ASU and hair pulling loss vs Auburn with the D keepin em in it and Sam Jackson and the FG kicker botching every chance.. can't say it shoulda been an easy win but prob coulda put me or JOZ in there and pulled it off .. then 3rd string true fr QB mendoza looks okay but had to watch Cal lose 4 straight including a huge letdown vs USC 49-50 .. then they won final 3 and pretty easy made a bowl and put O5.5 in the win column .. I like a team that can overcome the adversity like that and bring back a good crew into the new year .. been tracking Chandler Rogers since ULM to UNT to here and he's a legit dude that can effect a big comeback and pull off a big upset .. and Mendoza our #2 can def go win us a game too, and the WR unit looks pretty good even losing their top guy, Merriweather from ND is gunna be tough to guard at 6'5 Trond Grizzell at 6'4 returnign starter and Corey Dyches real good TE from MD .. and they have a couple guys in the 2-deep that could really pan out, Josiah Martin is the true FR name to know and unit goes from totally under utilized to maybe a surprise w Rogers slingin it ... Jayden Ott's time to shine surprised he came back 1300 yds 5.3 .. put the guy in for one kick return all year finale vs ucla and went yard for a score.. you wanna up yer draft stock big, do that a few times this yr .. Ott has a ton of help too reaaal deep unit lotta toys to play with esp considering Rogers propensity to break pressure and pick up first downs .. fingers xx'd a little on the OL they do get TAMU's center I think there's a real concern with the 2-deep but like Temple's all con tackle is yer #2 I think they'll survive .. again Rogers ability to scramble is huge Mendoza was often positive yds too ..
Fingers xx'd that the D can pull itself together they had some good and some uuuuggggglllyyyy last year .. but lotta guys back got some good xfers and none of the units really look bad I think they didn't have a pass rush goose egg sacks in 5 got just 1 in another 2 gms but capable of landing 5 vs utah and t-tech in the bowl .. the best tfl/sack guys are back and hope for lessons learned and unit gets more consistent ..
The good news is it does feel like the games we must win and other good candidates won't be lost by surprise great pass attacks .. UC Davis, SDSU, @Pitt, Oreg St, Stan, @Wake don't project well on offense. also only 5 roadies and 2 of em are ones we can just write off @FSU, @SMU in the finale looks like an ugly spot for Cal. But we have good wildcard spots .. CAL has been MONEY ATS in their big non con games even when they suck nearly winning vs Aub LY, @ND in '22, going back to 2014 winning home and away gms vs Ole Miss, UNC and Texas, so I wouldn't count Cal out being in the game @AUB this yr.. Miami with a long week 6 trip after a BIIG tussle vs VT just not a good spot for the canes. NC State's first roadie in a month is also their 7th straight game, CAL's homecoming .. Cuse makes the long trip following a tough slate @Pitt, VT, @BC .. plenty of shots on goal, schedule sets up well to make another bowl .. GO BEARS!
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SSN WINS
CAL OVER 5.5 -135 (BOL)
Was -120 yesterday and waited and now yeah chasin it .. might not be -135 or better out there I'd want closer to even for 6 since its tough to see a flood more wins than that and might have to wait for the right odds till later before the ssn starts.. this opened 6.5 and just in no way could I play that number over so patience can pay sometimes .. I think folks started looking over the strength of the ACC and some of the maybe wins turned a little less likely ..
Big picture we loved CAL coming into last year BIIIIG play for me and looking back I jumped the gun with my hopes that the QB situation was sorted out .. it was anything but .. had to watch them struggle to 3-3 and eekin out a win vs ASU and hair pulling loss vs Auburn with the D keepin em in it and Sam Jackson and the FG kicker botching every chance.. can't say it shoulda been an easy win but prob coulda put me or JOZ in there and pulled it off .. then 3rd string true fr QB mendoza looks okay but had to watch Cal lose 4 straight including a huge letdown vs USC 49-50 .. then they won final 3 and pretty easy made a bowl and put O5.5 in the win column .. I like a team that can overcome the adversity like that and bring back a good crew into the new year .. been tracking Chandler Rogers since ULM to UNT to here and he's a legit dude that can effect a big comeback and pull off a big upset .. and Mendoza our #2 can def go win us a game too, and the WR unit looks pretty good even losing their top guy, Merriweather from ND is gunna be tough to guard at 6'5 Trond Grizzell at 6'4 returnign starter and Corey Dyches real good TE from MD .. and they have a couple guys in the 2-deep that could really pan out, Josiah Martin is the true FR name to know and unit goes from totally under utilized to maybe a surprise w Rogers slingin it ... Jayden Ott's time to shine surprised he came back 1300 yds 5.3 .. put the guy in for one kick return all year finale vs ucla and went yard for a score.. you wanna up yer draft stock big, do that a few times this yr .. Ott has a ton of help too reaaal deep unit lotta toys to play with esp considering Rogers propensity to break pressure and pick up first downs .. fingers xx'd a little on the OL they do get TAMU's center I think there's a real concern with the 2-deep but like Temple's all con tackle is yer #2 I think they'll survive .. again Rogers ability to scramble is huge Mendoza was often positive yds too ..
Fingers xx'd that the D can pull itself together they had some good and some uuuuggggglllyyyy last year .. but lotta guys back got some good xfers and none of the units really look bad I think they didn't have a pass rush goose egg sacks in 5 got just 1 in another 2 gms but capable of landing 5 vs utah and t-tech in the bowl .. the best tfl/sack guys are back and hope for lessons learned and unit gets more consistent ..
The good news is it does feel like the games we must win and other good candidates won't be lost by surprise great pass attacks .. UC Davis, SDSU, @Pitt, Oreg St, Stan, @Wake don't project well on offense. also only 5 roadies and 2 of em are ones we can just write off @FSU, @SMU in the finale looks like an ugly spot for Cal. But we have good wildcard spots .. CAL has been MONEY ATS in their big non con games even when they suck nearly winning vs Aub LY, @ND in '22, going back to 2014 winning home and away gms vs Ole Miss, UNC and Texas, so I wouldn't count Cal out being in the game @AUB this yr.. Miami with a long week 6 trip after a BIIG tussle vs VT just not a good spot for the canes. NC State's first roadie in a month is also their 7th straight game, CAL's homecoming .. Cuse makes the long trip following a tough slate @Pitt, VT, @BC .. plenty of shots on goal, schedule sets up well to make another bowl .. GO BEARS!
SSN WINS CAL OVER 5.5 -135 I think folks started looking over the strength of the ACC and some of the maybe wins turned a little less likely .. Big picture we loved CAL coming into last year BIIIIG play for me and looking back I jumped the gun with my hopes that the QB situation was sorted out .. it was anything but .. had to watch them struggle to 3-3 and eekin out a win vs ASU and hair pulling loss vs Auburn with the D keepin em in it and Sam Jackson and the FG kicker botching every chance.. can't say it shoulda been an easy win but prob coulda put me or JOZ in there and pulled it off .. then 3rd string true fr QB mendoza looks okay but had to watch Cal lose 4 straight including a huge letdown vs USC 49-50 .. then they won final 3 and pretty easy made a bowl and put O5.5 in the win column .. I like a team that can overcome the adversity like that and bring back a good crew into the new year .. been tracking Chandler Rogers since ULM to UNT to here and he's a legit dude that can effect a big comeback and pull off a big upset .. and Mendoza our #2 can def go win us a game too, and the WR unit looks pretty good even losing their top guy, Merriweather from ND is gunna be tough to guard at 6'5 Trond Grizzell at 6'4 returnign starter and Corey Dyches real good TE from MD .. and they have a couple guys in the 2-deep that could really pan out, Josiah Martin is the true FR name to know and unit goes from totally under utilized to maybe a surprise w Rogers slingin it ... Jayden Ott's time to shine surprised he came back 1300 yds 5.3 .. put the guy in for one kick return all year finale vs ucla and went yard for a score.. you wanna up yer draft stock big, do that a few times this yr .. Ott has a ton of help too reaaal deep unit lotta toys to play with esp considering Rogers propensity to break pressure and pick up first downs .. fingers xx'd a little on the OL they do get TAMU's center I think there's a real concern with the 2-deep but like Temple's all con tackle is yer #2 I think they'll survive .. again Rogers ability to scramble is huge Mendoza was often positive yds too .. Fingers xx'd that the D can pull itself together they had some good and some uuuuggggglllyyyy last year .. but lotta guys back got some good xfers and none of the units really look bad I think they didn't have a pass rush goose egg sacks in 5 got just 1 in another 2 gms but capable of landing 5 vs utah and t-tech in the bowl .. the best tfl/sack guys are back and hope for lessons learned and unit gets more consistent .. The good news is it does feel like the games we must win and other good candidates won't be lost by surprise great pass attacks .. UC Davis, SDSU, @Pitt, Oreg St, Stan, @Wake don't project well on offense. also only 5 roadies and 2 of em are ones we can just write off @FSU, @SMU in the finale looks like an ugly spot for Cal. But we have good wildcard spots .. CAL has been MONEY ATS in their big non con games even when they suck nearly winning vs Aub LY, @ND in '22, going back to 2014 winning home and away gms vs Ole Miss, UNC and Texas, so I wouldn't count Cal out being in the game @AUB this yr.. Miami with a long week 6 trip after a BIIG tussle vs VT just not a good spot for the canes. NC State's first roadie in a month is also their 7th straight game, CAL's homecoming .. Cuse makes the long trip following a tough slate @Pitt, VT, @BC .. plenty of shots on goal, schedule sets up well to make another bowl .. GO BEARS!
I'll be interested in seeing how SMU fares in it's first season in the ACC .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
SSN WINS CAL OVER 5.5 -135 I think folks started looking over the strength of the ACC and some of the maybe wins turned a little less likely .. Big picture we loved CAL coming into last year BIIIIG play for me and looking back I jumped the gun with my hopes that the QB situation was sorted out .. it was anything but .. had to watch them struggle to 3-3 and eekin out a win vs ASU and hair pulling loss vs Auburn with the D keepin em in it and Sam Jackson and the FG kicker botching every chance.. can't say it shoulda been an easy win but prob coulda put me or JOZ in there and pulled it off .. then 3rd string true fr QB mendoza looks okay but had to watch Cal lose 4 straight including a huge letdown vs USC 49-50 .. then they won final 3 and pretty easy made a bowl and put O5.5 in the win column .. I like a team that can overcome the adversity like that and bring back a good crew into the new year .. been tracking Chandler Rogers since ULM to UNT to here and he's a legit dude that can effect a big comeback and pull off a big upset .. and Mendoza our #2 can def go win us a game too, and the WR unit looks pretty good even losing their top guy, Merriweather from ND is gunna be tough to guard at 6'5 Trond Grizzell at 6'4 returnign starter and Corey Dyches real good TE from MD .. and they have a couple guys in the 2-deep that could really pan out, Josiah Martin is the true FR name to know and unit goes from totally under utilized to maybe a surprise w Rogers slingin it ... Jayden Ott's time to shine surprised he came back 1300 yds 5.3 .. put the guy in for one kick return all year finale vs ucla and went yard for a score.. you wanna up yer draft stock big, do that a few times this yr .. Ott has a ton of help too reaaal deep unit lotta toys to play with esp considering Rogers propensity to break pressure and pick up first downs .. fingers xx'd a little on the OL they do get TAMU's center I think there's a real concern with the 2-deep but like Temple's all con tackle is yer #2 I think they'll survive .. again Rogers ability to scramble is huge Mendoza was often positive yds too .. Fingers xx'd that the D can pull itself together they had some good and some uuuuggggglllyyyy last year .. but lotta guys back got some good xfers and none of the units really look bad I think they didn't have a pass rush goose egg sacks in 5 got just 1 in another 2 gms but capable of landing 5 vs utah and t-tech in the bowl .. the best tfl/sack guys are back and hope for lessons learned and unit gets more consistent .. The good news is it does feel like the games we must win and other good candidates won't be lost by surprise great pass attacks .. UC Davis, SDSU, @Pitt, Oreg St, Stan, @Wake don't project well on offense. also only 5 roadies and 2 of em are ones we can just write off @FSU, @SMU in the finale looks like an ugly spot for Cal. But we have good wildcard spots .. CAL has been MONEY ATS in their big non con games even when they suck nearly winning vs Aub LY, @ND in '22, going back to 2014 winning home and away gms vs Ole Miss, UNC and Texas, so I wouldn't count Cal out being in the game @AUB this yr.. Miami with a long week 6 trip after a BIIG tussle vs VT just not a good spot for the canes. NC State's first roadie in a month is also their 7th straight game, CAL's homecoming .. Cuse makes the long trip following a tough slate @Pitt, VT, @BC .. plenty of shots on goal, schedule sets up well to make another bowl .. GO BEARS!
I'll be interested in seeing how SMU fares in it's first season in the ACC .
Sup Wiiiise! .. yeah me too hard to point at LY's production and say oh yeah this is translating right over but I think they had a great group last year turned the corner big on D I'd expected Symons to get it turned around at some pt year 1 disappointing then ka-boom .. pretty attractive spot for xfers to come into and idk when I checked em out they looked pretty buttoned up in most units and some questions but not many concerns esp if the QB is back healthy like it sounds he is .. and we've seen how they've been grooming Jennings we can trust him to carry the flag if needed and maaan they can def come up with a package lookin like a qb run for him and he just puts it down field WR group is real nasty .. maybe biggest concern is you had these 3 good RB's good OL and just not seein a ton of explosive runs .. tack on a pass game that loves to throw a lower % deep ball and kinda makes sense why some games ponies O was not really clickin .. better more explosive run game and little smarter with the ball and i think this O gunna be pure fire.. if not.. might be kickin themselves .. huge opportunity for em in ACC YR 1 ..
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@WISEGUY36
Sup Wiiiise! .. yeah me too hard to point at LY's production and say oh yeah this is translating right over but I think they had a great group last year turned the corner big on D I'd expected Symons to get it turned around at some pt year 1 disappointing then ka-boom .. pretty attractive spot for xfers to come into and idk when I checked em out they looked pretty buttoned up in most units and some questions but not many concerns esp if the QB is back healthy like it sounds he is .. and we've seen how they've been grooming Jennings we can trust him to carry the flag if needed and maaan they can def come up with a package lookin like a qb run for him and he just puts it down field WR group is real nasty .. maybe biggest concern is you had these 3 good RB's good OL and just not seein a ton of explosive runs .. tack on a pass game that loves to throw a lower % deep ball and kinda makes sense why some games ponies O was not really clickin .. better more explosive run game and little smarter with the ball and i think this O gunna be pure fire.. if not.. might be kickin themselves .. huge opportunity for em in ACC YR 1 ..
Having a little off topic fun here .. don't need to turn the thread political or nasty just don't think we've seen the last of the political surprises and this one makes a little bit of sense .. Getting Kamala futures on predict it there's still plenty of 1 cent shares out there now .. got Hillary odds at BM which are still hovering way up there, you can get Hillary nom for much much lower odds I think over 200 for pres makes the most sense as we'll be hedging if she magically finds herself top of the ticket ..
So, think we all can agree some heavy Dem hands have been real busy pushing joe out which all surfaced in unison the moment the debate was over and the talking heads all had the same talking point, "dem big wigs have been blowing up my phone telling them joe gotta go, etc" .. donors pulling funds ever since lotta media planted stories about joe dropping out even when joe says he wasn't .. this pressure continued till joe drops out the other day ... Part 2 of this act was getting everyone lined up behind Kamalla w key endorsements right away and big money flooding in and glowing media coverage and with a contested convention all the contestants vanish behind her right away and now delegates already pledge themselves basically ensuring nobody else has a chance .. runway cleared in a big hurry ..
Just my opinion but I don't think that whole operation goes on with the intent of keeping Kamala at the top of the ticket .. once the relief of Joe dropping out wears off reality will sink in that Kamala paired with anyone is gunna look like a certified dud.. maybe an out there guess but Hillary had surfaced right next to Joe and Kamala late in this one really the only one supporting Joe the day before he bows out so while she looks supportive we also know the pull with donors, media and delegates is right up her ally and I think she's got the pull with Joe to get him to sign out and let her clean things up .. I dont think calls for Joe to drop out or the whole runway clearing happens without a real string puller behind all that .. You'd also need Kamala to at some point turn her presumed prez nom over and endorse Hillary .. I think that would be the easiest part it wouldnt take much convincing that because if Harris didn't team up w Hill then probably see a real contested convention and the nominee may not be Kamala and while thy might still pick her for VP because she controls the campaign and the funds she just wouldn't have much leverage and probably on a losing ticket anyway and her career is gone completely at if she lost .. bottom line Hillary / Harris could make dems barf for a day but think everyone would soon agree it is such a stronger more winnable ticket..
All just a guess, could be wrong .. I'll feel wrong if Kamala picks a VP and obvi be wrong if she gets the rollcall nomination etc .. but masssssively long odds so we won't sting our pockets much and maaaaan if im right gunna be fun ..
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KAMALA VP NOM 100-1 HILLARY 4 PRESIDENT 248-1
Having a little off topic fun here .. don't need to turn the thread political or nasty just don't think we've seen the last of the political surprises and this one makes a little bit of sense .. Getting Kamala futures on predict it there's still plenty of 1 cent shares out there now .. got Hillary odds at BM which are still hovering way up there, you can get Hillary nom for much much lower odds I think over 200 for pres makes the most sense as we'll be hedging if she magically finds herself top of the ticket ..
So, think we all can agree some heavy Dem hands have been real busy pushing joe out which all surfaced in unison the moment the debate was over and the talking heads all had the same talking point, "dem big wigs have been blowing up my phone telling them joe gotta go, etc" .. donors pulling funds ever since lotta media planted stories about joe dropping out even when joe says he wasn't .. this pressure continued till joe drops out the other day ... Part 2 of this act was getting everyone lined up behind Kamalla w key endorsements right away and big money flooding in and glowing media coverage and with a contested convention all the contestants vanish behind her right away and now delegates already pledge themselves basically ensuring nobody else has a chance .. runway cleared in a big hurry ..
Just my opinion but I don't think that whole operation goes on with the intent of keeping Kamala at the top of the ticket .. once the relief of Joe dropping out wears off reality will sink in that Kamala paired with anyone is gunna look like a certified dud.. maybe an out there guess but Hillary had surfaced right next to Joe and Kamala late in this one really the only one supporting Joe the day before he bows out so while she looks supportive we also know the pull with donors, media and delegates is right up her ally and I think she's got the pull with Joe to get him to sign out and let her clean things up .. I dont think calls for Joe to drop out or the whole runway clearing happens without a real string puller behind all that .. You'd also need Kamala to at some point turn her presumed prez nom over and endorse Hillary .. I think that would be the easiest part it wouldnt take much convincing that because if Harris didn't team up w Hill then probably see a real contested convention and the nominee may not be Kamala and while thy might still pick her for VP because she controls the campaign and the funds she just wouldn't have much leverage and probably on a losing ticket anyway and her career is gone completely at if she lost .. bottom line Hillary / Harris could make dems barf for a day but think everyone would soon agree it is such a stronger more winnable ticket..
All just a guess, could be wrong .. I'll feel wrong if Kamala picks a VP and obvi be wrong if she gets the rollcall nomination etc .. but masssssively long odds so we won't sting our pockets much and maaaaan if im right gunna be fun ..
Ok last of these political fun bets, dovetailing off my notes above adding this one also on predictit 1 cent shares available there .. finally seeing her majesty surface again in this whole thing and looking like she lost weight and got a face lift supporting Kamala all the way.. very well positioned for media to throw her name out there and she suddenly rises up the ranks and grabs a spot on the ticket .. I agree far fetched .. but big picture Kamala is a fairly no name candidate and I don't think what folks know of her is a political strength nor what we'll come to know of her and the real problem for her is we still have to get to know her .. all the other supposed VP candidates are no names that need to be introduced to us too .. this is the main weakness of a ticket with Kamala at the top of it, there's no real political muscle on there .. I like Hill VP less than the idea I proposed above, however this is certainly an easier pill to swallow as it doesn't require ANOTHER switch-a-roo or some other undemocratic back room deal anointing of Hillary which would actually unite the country and make us all barf together... still, I can't make a call like the one above and Hill makes it on the ticket and I don't get paid so gotta close the loop on my bet taking this one .. yeah big puke if real but Hill on the ticket anywhere is the strongest ticket I can come up with and she's well positioned to be on there .. everything else is a MAJOR drop off so .. fine 100-1 if I'm wrong then fine w me lol ..
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^^^
HILLARY VP NOM 100-1
Ok last of these political fun bets, dovetailing off my notes above adding this one also on predictit 1 cent shares available there .. finally seeing her majesty surface again in this whole thing and looking like she lost weight and got a face lift supporting Kamala all the way.. very well positioned for media to throw her name out there and she suddenly rises up the ranks and grabs a spot on the ticket .. I agree far fetched .. but big picture Kamala is a fairly no name candidate and I don't think what folks know of her is a political strength nor what we'll come to know of her and the real problem for her is we still have to get to know her .. all the other supposed VP candidates are no names that need to be introduced to us too .. this is the main weakness of a ticket with Kamala at the top of it, there's no real political muscle on there .. I like Hill VP less than the idea I proposed above, however this is certainly an easier pill to swallow as it doesn't require ANOTHER switch-a-roo or some other undemocratic back room deal anointing of Hillary which would actually unite the country and make us all barf together... still, I can't make a call like the one above and Hill makes it on the ticket and I don't get paid so gotta close the loop on my bet taking this one .. yeah big puke if real but Hill on the ticket anywhere is the strongest ticket I can come up with and she's well positioned to be on there .. everything else is a MAJOR drop off so .. fine 100-1 if I'm wrong then fine w me lol ..
Haha - no way man - that would introduce too much (email / Clinton foundation talk / Billy boy Epstein talk/ pizza pedo talk) - gotta be a squeaky clean white boy, at least semi-moderate) .........I think.
ps. I'll be watching your fine thread, now get polluted with MAGA Deep State talk, from afar .......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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HILLARY.......?!
Haha - no way man - that would introduce too much (email / Clinton foundation talk / Billy boy Epstein talk/ pizza pedo talk) - gotta be a squeaky clean white boy, at least semi-moderate) .........I think.
ps. I'll be watching your fine thread, now get polluted with MAGA Deep State talk, from afar .......
Hahaaaaa we'll see im not endorsing anyone just tryin to make a buck.. and yeah thought I might be apologizing profusely by now but just the two of us in here lol .. The reason for that is the opinion that begets the wager, while shocking if it came true, is actually a unifying one over our entire autistic political spectrum.. That is the script we've been seeing doesn't play out so perfectly only to leave K-MAL up there... that's it ... I don't go on and on saying she's a total stooge and has no power in the party and far and away the worst prez candidate anyone can remember or even that its a total kamikaze mission if she's left at the controls .. ehhh.. can I still say kamikaze? ... anyway we intuitively know what happens if she stays at the top of the ticket .. and none of the hyped up VP's will help the situation by riding shotgun.. there's only one person out there could pull off the Switch-A-Roo-2-Boogaloo needed to send Harris to the back of the bus with grace and dignity and have any shot to win this thing .. Maybe there's more than one out there but Hillary really has surfaced in a great spot to land on the ticket .. I did have to take Hill for VP too just to cover the bases that also just doesn't seem like a winner but 100-1 there too, ok fine .. Kamala for VP I think has the best odds since maybe there's someone else that could push her back besides Hill .. and if I'm right then the Hill for Prez 248-1 will be a fun hedge .. so C'mon MAGA ARMY .. step right up .. tell me I'm wrong!!! lol ..
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@bookieassassin
Hahaaaaa we'll see im not endorsing anyone just tryin to make a buck.. and yeah thought I might be apologizing profusely by now but just the two of us in here lol .. The reason for that is the opinion that begets the wager, while shocking if it came true, is actually a unifying one over our entire autistic political spectrum.. That is the script we've been seeing doesn't play out so perfectly only to leave K-MAL up there... that's it ... I don't go on and on saying she's a total stooge and has no power in the party and far and away the worst prez candidate anyone can remember or even that its a total kamikaze mission if she's left at the controls .. ehhh.. can I still say kamikaze? ... anyway we intuitively know what happens if she stays at the top of the ticket .. and none of the hyped up VP's will help the situation by riding shotgun.. there's only one person out there could pull off the Switch-A-Roo-2-Boogaloo needed to send Harris to the back of the bus with grace and dignity and have any shot to win this thing .. Maybe there's more than one out there but Hillary really has surfaced in a great spot to land on the ticket .. I did have to take Hill for VP too just to cover the bases that also just doesn't seem like a winner but 100-1 there too, ok fine .. Kamala for VP I think has the best odds since maybe there's someone else that could push her back besides Hill .. and if I'm right then the Hill for Prez 248-1 will be a fun hedge .. so C'mon MAGA ARMY .. step right up .. tell me I'm wrong!!! lol ..
A few things about this one points the scoring down a little for me .. Mont State top of the conf in Phil's FCS preview and got a great QB w Tommy "MONEY" Mellot .. my nickname for him but guy can really drive the an offense that was real run heavy last yr 66% runs, lotta QB running .. they went back/forth w Sean Chambers at QB last yr so that would make sense but still expect a high run to pass count here to continue Tommy very good scrambler .. and good reason to do that week 1 in the NM elevation over 5k feet .. we saw SMU in the NM bowl a few years back show up really sucking wind and the elev diff is gunna be real for the Coogs .. We also know Coogs D, while not lock down in FCS last yr, it was real tough getting over 20 pts on em. True Monty scored alot and think that's why we're getting 3 pts above average .. what they should be thinking is Monty OWNED the clock in Q4 last yr 7 times over 10 mins .. both teams have very excellent punter and crappy FG kickers and that Monty only went 4th n go 13 times last yr, made 7.. likely see them elect to play FP maybe both teams do. The nightmare scenario for either team is quick 3n out D playing all gm .. note that even for NM players living in the elevation its still week 1 game 1 and last thing you want is D chasing QB's around en route to a 10 min drive lol no sir .. offense has to protect its D w slower playcalling tryin to pick up first downs instead of BIG plays .. Monty's D is also in great shape for this year Phil has the Coogs top of the conf and every D unit sounds pretty good and really well put together FB team on both sides w run heavy offensive identity, clearly able to put the late stranglehold on teams so expecting more of a grind than fireworks ..
NM new coach Bronco keepin his schemes to himself but we're pretty confident in his usual 3-man approach based on the beat writers seein the spring gm .. if yer playin 3-man they should have some advantage limiting explosive plays .. on Offense we got maybe a star in the making with Dampier and just what we've seen so far very much a dual threat QB, again like Mellot we could see slower drives w QB's kinda barely pickin up first downs.. We have some idea based on the OC where they want this offense to be eventually .. OC Jason Beck QB coach at UVA for the bryce perkins and Armstrong years and at Cuse for Schraeders big bounce back year in '22 .. the offense is gunna be more mystery till we see it some beat writers saying there's lots of formations shifts n motions and saw some wildcat w Damp split out.. lot of complexity but doubt they'll be ready to showcase week 1 and even if they were Bronco keepin things quiet all summer and then puts it all on tape vs an FCS team, i don't think so ..
Can't BP a week 1 total but feels like a game the books can easily misplace the total.. always could see D's break down or other freaky scoring .. but I think decent chance we'll see one or both offenses with some kinks to sort out and just the whole set up w dueling good punters/crappy kickers and generally think we have two teams that would be better suited to be less aggressive on offense anyway .. think the total should be lower by some number, maybe a bit lower, and think good chance after a drive or 2 the algos say woops and make a quick adjustment .. and certainly if they get to Q4 and its a one score game or Monty has the lead expect a total clock grinder late .. maybe the alt move is see if we get some weird scoring early and play for the clock grinder with the inflated H2 total .. GOOD LUCK!
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Ok back to football lol ..
SMALLER
NEW MEX / MONT ST UNDER 55.5
A few things about this one points the scoring down a little for me .. Mont State top of the conf in Phil's FCS preview and got a great QB w Tommy "MONEY" Mellot .. my nickname for him but guy can really drive the an offense that was real run heavy last yr 66% runs, lotta QB running .. they went back/forth w Sean Chambers at QB last yr so that would make sense but still expect a high run to pass count here to continue Tommy very good scrambler .. and good reason to do that week 1 in the NM elevation over 5k feet .. we saw SMU in the NM bowl a few years back show up really sucking wind and the elev diff is gunna be real for the Coogs .. We also know Coogs D, while not lock down in FCS last yr, it was real tough getting over 20 pts on em. True Monty scored alot and think that's why we're getting 3 pts above average .. what they should be thinking is Monty OWNED the clock in Q4 last yr 7 times over 10 mins .. both teams have very excellent punter and crappy FG kickers and that Monty only went 4th n go 13 times last yr, made 7.. likely see them elect to play FP maybe both teams do. The nightmare scenario for either team is quick 3n out D playing all gm .. note that even for NM players living in the elevation its still week 1 game 1 and last thing you want is D chasing QB's around en route to a 10 min drive lol no sir .. offense has to protect its D w slower playcalling tryin to pick up first downs instead of BIG plays .. Monty's D is also in great shape for this year Phil has the Coogs top of the conf and every D unit sounds pretty good and really well put together FB team on both sides w run heavy offensive identity, clearly able to put the late stranglehold on teams so expecting more of a grind than fireworks ..
NM new coach Bronco keepin his schemes to himself but we're pretty confident in his usual 3-man approach based on the beat writers seein the spring gm .. if yer playin 3-man they should have some advantage limiting explosive plays .. on Offense we got maybe a star in the making with Dampier and just what we've seen so far very much a dual threat QB, again like Mellot we could see slower drives w QB's kinda barely pickin up first downs.. We have some idea based on the OC where they want this offense to be eventually .. OC Jason Beck QB coach at UVA for the bryce perkins and Armstrong years and at Cuse for Schraeders big bounce back year in '22 .. the offense is gunna be more mystery till we see it some beat writers saying there's lots of formations shifts n motions and saw some wildcat w Damp split out.. lot of complexity but doubt they'll be ready to showcase week 1 and even if they were Bronco keepin things quiet all summer and then puts it all on tape vs an FCS team, i don't think so ..
Can't BP a week 1 total but feels like a game the books can easily misplace the total.. always could see D's break down or other freaky scoring .. but I think decent chance we'll see one or both offenses with some kinks to sort out and just the whole set up w dueling good punters/crappy kickers and generally think we have two teams that would be better suited to be less aggressive on offense anyway .. think the total should be lower by some number, maybe a bit lower, and think good chance after a drive or 2 the algos say woops and make a quick adjustment .. and certainly if they get to Q4 and its a one score game or Monty has the lead expect a total clock grinder late .. maybe the alt move is see if we get some weird scoring early and play for the clock grinder with the inflated H2 total .. GOOD LUCK!
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