BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2024

INDY CONT'D .. 

The roster does have some thin spots and questions but offensively things look pretty interesting very deep room of experienced RB's and WR's and the OL starters are more/less set and the depth is not bad there either .. Kurtis Rourke comes over from Ohio and while Bobs had kindof a down yr LY Rourke can def sling it hitting 69% in '22 and he's still lookin mobile enough year removed from injury bagging 2-300 yds on the ground when he's the starter .. Also got a look at backup Tevyn Jackson who looks like he can complete a game if called on and maybe turns into the better QB by year end .. the assurance here is Cig brought over his OC and QB coach from JMU, they took a sure fire loser like Todd Ciento from Colo St and made him a viable game managing QB in their inaugural FBS ROMP .. and J-MAC was def not a sure coming in LY but he left no doubt connecting nearly 68% 9y/att 35-10 LY .. Easy to trust Cig & Co to take a legit proven Rourke and turn in the best QB he can be, very excited for the O turnaround... the D has more questions but the starters are for the most part set and we have a number of 'experienced but less certain if they can play in the B10' in the 2-deep and we need a few to pan out but again we have Cig's DC and man did that D RIIIIP the Sun Belt a new A-HOLE when they showed up .. biggest concerns are along the DL and in the B10 that is a real concern but they have 2 to 3 DT's they can trust CJ West from Kent St is actually a total Beeeast lotta interest in him when he left but we don't wanna see many injuries from that D unit or others.. 

Schedule has an interesting quirk I don't like .. 6 straight opponents will be off a bye or an FCS game .. eek .. but sizing this up I count 3 likely early wins with FIU, FCS W.ILL and Charlotte .. 4 other targets the Hoosiers should match up well in going @UCLA early my hope is the major coaching mismatch and disorganized Bru Crew lands us a 'welcome to the BIG 10' win.. huge gm for both teams .. go @NU but that's in the soccer stadium this yr, gotta love the Cats but unclear what the HFA will be for them and also unclear if the 'win for FITZ' magic will carry over even w the big ret pro.. I'll say it t'was a special year LY in Evanston and I'm anticipating things not progressing for them for a few reasons .. @Mich St and Purdue at home are biiiig rivalry games I'd say we have 50/50 shots in both .. and a few others they have a real shot in MD, NEB, WASH all at home and I am not at all confident in the Terps or the Huskies this year, NEB we'll see .. but.. its NEB... so.. Indy bags one of those 3 gms and I think we seal this up .. all told 3 likely wins and 7 more winnable shots on goal for an Indy team that hits all the high notes in my New Coach, New QB, New Attitude playlist for '24 .. good luck!

Challenging year man - guys that put in the work should be fine - them that don't will probably get killed .....

@bookieassassin

SUP BA, yeah think so I mean the landscape is dramatically different with the full on corporatization of da game here quite a few shifts makes for interesting things to think about and all kinda piled on top of each other .. G5 got the nafta sucking noise treatment the ret pro is 10% lower than the big boyz and not just production but talent P5'ers takin anyone .. Ole miss taking everyone lol .. don't think it was ever a major thing like that before but you def have a situation with a couple G5'ers going HAM to the wire and about half that league is sitting on a rebuilding year .. P5 probably a fight to the death in the top 30'ish .. won't get as many of the last couple game bubble bursts but the ones that go pop are gunna be nasty w guys already out the door shoppin for a lambo deal .. lot to think about w the the end of season .. idk how we add 3-4 more tough gms and anyone without a 3 deep of starters thinks they'd survive this dance .. actually might not be nearly as bad this year with the extra bye week for everyone but who knows that's a weird quirk thats tough to gauge .. some teams have like 5 or 6 opponents off a bye or an FCS game ... realignment duh .. throw the trends out the window its a new era .. 

SSN WINS

GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175 (MGM)
GA SOUTHER OVER 5 -115 (CZR)

CONF

GA SOUTHERN 25-1 (MGM)

Think this is a mispricing by SP+ here we have a very competitive team in a conference and schedule with ALOT of teams in TURMOIL this year and SP is telling us the Eagles are -10 pts below average in Bill's spring update which puts them squarely in the 3rd tier of sunbelt teams with Appy, Troy, ULL, JMU up top, So.Bama, TX.State Coastal and Ark St a tier down and Our dudes along w Marsh, ODU and G.St before we get to So Miss at -18 and ULM in loser hyperspace at -24  .. Of all the SUN teams the only reliable profiles look like App St, ULL, TX.ST, Ark St and IMO G-So is in there too .. everyone else sporting low 40% in production w the Big Boys JMU, S.BAMA, TROY also undergoing MAJOR coaching changes .. 

Offensively the main questions are with QB JC French the top contender got a few snaps as a freshman vs JMU and Appy and think he looked totally capable in limited action .. also bring in Dexter "Break a leg" Williams from Indy who by accounts had a great spring gm .. Not worried about a new QB because Brinn was an INTERCEPTION MACHINE with 19 picks and single handedly murdered an otherwise very promising start to last season and brutalized down the stretch losing last 5 plus the bowl gm .. G.SO even had appy on the ropes early before disasters.. change is likely good and Helton's crew can take a VAN-T and turn in a 4k passer so change is welcome .. Rest of the O looks fine and even bagged a big name WR in LV-Bunkley-Shelton from Oklahoma by way of ASU def a dude lookin to catch passes .. and have #2 and #3 back, again this O was never built on 1 main WR everyone plus the RB's are targets and have their entire stable back .. run game very big part of their O success .. 

D was a continuation of the tough time they had in '22 but the thing to like is the DC they brought in from Buff last year Brandon Bailey is a real rising star can scheme up a real pass D and given they had very little returning last year and very late post-spring hire there's reasons to like a turnaround esp with the DL looking real stout w everyone back and experienced and big ..  and like at Buff they are finding some real stars LB Watson-Trent HM AA in phil and Rhodes on the DL are both havoc generators and back end have experience and portal talent coming in for Bailey to work with so the units profile well for improvement.. SP has the D rated where they can't really get worse rating and plenty of upside, they could add 6 pts of power rating on D and that would put them where ODU was last year.. 

^^^ GA SOUTHERN CONT'D .. 

Schedule is interesting we have easier stuff on the road and tough ones at home and if thinking of a flyer on a conf play that's a good setup .. tough start at home though w Boise St coming to town and they're no doubt thinking playoffs so count an L in that one .. then its @Nevada, and FCS S.Car State and there's likely 2 wins in there Nevada really doesn't profile well this yr .. roadie to Ole Miss is another L .. easier stuff w roadies @G-State, @ODU, @Coastal w obvious ret pro issues this yr and lotta questions on one or both sides of the ball .. like getting Marshall at home their D projects well again but it was hit n miss last year and new OC changing to an Air Raid and proj starter Mitch "Wild Thing" Griffis left the team and offense otherwise still has quite a few questions .. The assumed tougher stuff w Troy, JMU @S.Bama are three teams coming off their program peaks with very low ret pro and HC changes and tough to sell me on any continuing their peak success .. esp Troy who climbed out of the gutter a few yrs ago .. Finale home vs App State and they look like a monster but its a monster rivalry and G-SO was up 2 scores last year on the road before turnovers murdered them and beat Appy at home 2 yrs ago .. very intense rivalry teams are 3-3 last 6 meetings.. all told i got it as 2 very likely wins and likely have 8 competitive shots on goal .. feels like they at least go bowling again .. 

Would take now I would expect it moves to 5.5 or 6 at some point.. Seems like the calc assumes the big programs won't do much tailing off from their peaks when I'd expect a couple big landslides and thus I think the assumption is G-So is just a MASSIVE dog in most home games and the model probably has em as a road dog vs the weaker teams .. I think much bigger shakeup coming to the Sun Belt and Eagles are one of a few with a pretty decent profile and a reason to expect improvements .. no matter what G-SO is this year they're gunna fight like heck for a bowl game and won't blow off their finale vs App St if it happens they're sitting on 4 wins .. but I'd also say barring JMU surviving their massive turmoil it wouldn't surprise me if a champ game ticket comes down to that Appy State finale at home .. No prob taking a 25-1 stab w the Eagles again .. wouldn't go much below 20 so shop around but I'd guess its closer to 15 or maybe 10 depending on how the big shakeup looks as we near the season .. GO EAGLES!!

SSN WINS

E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150 (MGM)

CONF

E. CAROLINA 16-1 (CZR)

Its juiced odds 5.5 or taking + odds at 6.5 I can't find anything normal at the 6 even spot unfortunately .. not saying don't take the +odds I think it could be a really big fun .. and I mean realllly big fun, year for the Pirates .. buuut .. I think 5.5 is reallly tough to lose so for a buck and a half it is the best bet in no small part because making a bowl would be disappointing but its still a huuuuge win for this program given the struggles for Mike Houston to get to one .. and particularly coming off last season which seemed like a sure thing mulligan year and I recall we easily cashed our RSW Under last year on these guys no sweat or nothing .. I've seen 5.5 at MGM and DK has it -160 so couple places to hunt that down .. 

ECU is probably sitting on top of my pre-ssn 'They Different' list NC State too but ECAR finished last year ~-13 in SP+ and that was almost all due to the crappy offensive output SP rated em around +14 so expect 2 TD's on a neut field vs an average team .. better said, this offense was bottom 5 with names like Nevada, Ball St and E.Mich .. key to the change is Mike Houston bringing in Ole Miss' OC and effectively implementing the scheme and new very quick temp in the spring .. also have 2 QB's competing who by accounts can really play Garcia was very highly rated outta HS and saw min action during Miami's horrific year and didn't see any LY at Mizzoo so very much an unknown and Katin Houser who was thrust in as a FR at Mich St last year and at least didn't crap his pants .. Both were running things great in the spring and every unit on O otherwise looks solid esp skill spots .. hard to gauge the OL but lot of experience and a new OC can totally transform a them this year bringing the quality and at OM you gotta know how to scheme around the major mismatches and at least in the spring gm we know they were able to be fast and explosive vs what sounds like a pretty decent D front .. The D is less of a worry they lose a few guys but Houston been building the roster for years and the D made a big jump last yr shaving points and yds off the box scores and played hard even thru an absolutely horribly rough year LY .. they have a few legit dudes returning already and one missing piece last year was pass rushing and accounts of the spring say Ville backup xfer Ryheem Craig is a DUDE in that department and have 2-3 others who are capable .. so yeah the D has starters and most of their 2-deep seemingly figured out and I'd bank on Houston having enough in the pipeline to fill the gaps and maybe take another step forward .. Just seems like the program had been gearing itself for an ugly year LY and anticipating a big bounce back year here and this is a great year in the AAC to show up surprising .. 

^^^ E.CAROLINA CONT'D 

Schedule IMO has 12 winnable gms on it and Mike Houston is def talking like he's holding a legit hand w this team but the takeaway is there's plenty of shots on goal here and there's really no reason ECU isin't thinking 'WHY NOT US' for the G5 playoff slot .. if they want it they got 2 games to get things right and then realllly come out swingin.. FCS tune up and go @ODU wk 2 .. ODU off S.Car and VT on deck it is a bit of an awkward spot for the Monarchs with the big game bookending this spot .. then its 3 G5 Playoff suitors and otherwise just MONSTER games .. Appy State at home huuuge rivalry goes back to the 1930's .. follow that up w a trip to reigning G5 Kings @Liberty ..  then conf starts w UTSA .. at home! .. maybe the biggest concerning spot on the schedule is going @Charlotte after that stretch before the first bye week.. Char might be real diff too and only 1 matchup in their history Char won last year but man what a spot to get the wind knocked out of an EPIC start .. After the bye its a pretty easy slate and I'd say even if they lose to UTSA or Char they got every shot to make the AAC champ gm .. @Army, Temp, Bye, FAU, @Tulsa, @N.Tex, Navy .. There's a spot or two that could trip them up like Navy finale or b2b roadies into Denton but if ECU has the goods they can run that into the champ game I don't see a sure thing dangerous team or spot on the schedule after the opening firestorm .. that's another thing to like here even with a horror show 3-3 or even 2-4 start they can still be in line for a bowl and maybe the Conf when the schedule lightens up, don't see them packing it in early .. 

Would play sooner than later I think 5.5 won't be around at any price and prob layin those 150 odds at 6 wins maybe 6.5 is -115 is where it finally falls .. the AAC has a great reputation but lost UCF, HOU, CINCY, SMU .. Tulane is off B2B peak program years .. UTSA with all the production back last yr declined significantly on offense w the loss of their OC to Oregon and don't see em hitting that kinda epic stride of 2 yrs ago .. Memphis looks like its their year w a MASS of talent coming in esp on D .. but man they couldn't stop the run to save their lives last year and have UTSA and Tulane on the road in very tough spots .. if Henni gets hurt again its big trouble .. There's just no SURE THING 3 or 4 or 5 teams blocking a surprise team from hitting paydirt in the conference .. and a kicker where its very possible ECU lands HFA in the CCG even in a one loss conf tie vs a Memphis given both play UTSA just ECU gets em at home .. 16-1 with outside shot to make the champ gm if the team is close to what we think it is .. 

- HOIST THE COLOURS!!!!!! .. NO QUARTER!!!!!

MAKE THE PLAYOFF .. G5 EDITION .. 

E.CAROLINA 130-1 (FAN)

The early schedule going @Liberty, and App St, UTSA at home along w an AAC champ game victory doesn't necessarily lock in ECU if they make a massive run but I think it all but does since its 4 very strong suitors for the G5 playoff spot .. the question will be if all the teams still look quality by seasons end and good chance at least two will .. combine that with the right AAC matchup in the champ gm .. and obvi a W ... and yeah its a tough resume to beat, I would imagine unless Boise beats Oregon or Miami Oh beats Cincy and ND there's unlikely to be the WOW factor from any non AAC team beating a P5 team, at least from the seemingly known playoff candidates .. and even w 5 very good teams leaving the AAC for the P5 and the conf nowhere near what it used to be, all things equal, I think the committee will respect the AAC champ more than other Conf Champs .. that may not be the case next year but at least this yr seems like we can find long odds on an AAC champ "SHOCKER" which when we think about it may not be all THAT "shocking" .. most of ECU's AAC schedule looks easy and just seems like a situation ECU can win 11 or even 12 games and then fingers XX'd we slay a dragon at the end and look like the right choice .. 

TEXAS STATE 17-1 (FAN)

Welp we didn't get the 80-1 BOMB on the conf we had last year .. but we did have fun for a few weeks going from super duper dead last to in-ssn lowest odds to win the conf .. reallllly like what Kinne is doing, didn't take long before there was a playaz linin up to get into Club San Marcos .. He's STRAIT UP PIMPIN and yeah adding J-MAC from J-MAD at QB I think will be a much more stable hand that TJ Finley just didn't have for all his big play ability there were way too many crash n burns and it caught up w them eventually .. TEX ST has UTSA and ASU on the schedule and prob get App St in the champ gm .. that's not super impressive so they gotta go 12-0 and the real resume building is gunna have to be from hittin the AFTERBURNERS week in and week out .. Bobs can certainly do that but even then there are still prob a few ways the committee could find someone else to take .. that's why we like the 'long odds on a potential surprise AAC champ' team its just so tough to run the table and maybe outside of Boise I think teams almost need to outside of the AAC .. for that reason 17x really is about the min odds I could take and not suggesting to bomb it either but I think they got a maybe closer to 10-1 if things go our way .. I don't think we'll see higher than these odds either so playin now and yeah this is my only other G5 Make the playoff suggestion

as for some others .. Boise and Liberty odds are just wayyyy too low, I considered Boise 9-1 early on but that got dropped to like 5-1 real quick .. I don't hate UTSA at 15-1 or even Memphis at 6.5-1 it just kinda feels like the expected odds to me prob not a ton of value .. UTSA has a very likely loss w Texas and would have to run the table w Memp, Tex State and the AAC champ gm just very difficult .. longer AAC odds maybe FAU 130-1 but same coaches and less promising offense feels like a waste of time .. Rice at 60-1 feels just too low they did beat Houston last year and at least have a winnable P5 team but yeah I'd take em for the 130x or more but no such luck .. 

SMALLER

BRIDGE PLAY

CLEM / GEORGIA UNDER 48.5 (FAN)

It's a pre-ssn BP we can't go super HAM on it yet .. I hit this off the cuff after taking a look at Clem's spring gm we can't say with certainty how good the offense is but they do have like 8 ret starters and were hopeful for a big turnaround from a ever declining units since the champ years combined with disappointing QB play from DJ Fat Ass and real disappointment from Klubnik last year .. WR unit been a dud and we did note one stud on there true FR Bryant Wesco looks the part but yeah single true FR feels like best of the bunch this yr and who knows if that shows in wk 1  .. Clem's D unit WRECKED the offense bad on the first 20 or so plays .. and i mean BAAAAD, run game snuffed out in the backfield, pressure everywhere .. the D front doesn't drop off much from the big dawgs leaving the young guns are more than ready .. even got a dose of true fr Sammy Brown peep the HS tape guy is like Bozworth on better steroids .. Clem lost a couple studs but look fine everywhere if there's a question mark its on the back end ..

The good news is looking at UGA their big question is downfield explosiveness .. you lose BROCK and "IRISH" LADD-MAC and MR-JACK-SAINT.. we saw last yr what happens when they were in for a few yrs now and LY throtttttle Kentucky, make mince-meat of Ole Miss .. and just not not the same offense w out Brock let alone that trio .. Clearly can trust BOBO & CO to make it happen w those weapons and Stan Xfer Ben Yursich and Oscar Delp justifies running a 2 TE set.. Yursich is a legit rec threat .. the WR unit is not nearly as strong w Lovett and Rara and nice add w Colbie Young from Mia. Good unit but not seeing sure thing champ level rec depth, one injury or rotating bups changes what they can do.. RB unit ROCKED w inj K-MILT had to carry the load alone led to dud run gms early vs S.Car and Aub and nothin easy w Mizz, Tenn or Bama. Uncle Milty gone but got huuuge XFER w Etienne and Robinson Brothers weighing in 230/240 are bups w Branson injured last year. But lose up n comer Andrew Paul to Jax St. If Etinne gets hurt its likely trouble and doesn't feel like a fast break speedy unit anyway. I don't think Bobo will scheme up the explosiveness.. Schedule is massively tougher for the Dawgs and think a major concern is figuring out what the O can do this yr if/when an injury comes in w very untested depth I'd expect to see backups come in if UGA pulls away late. I'd expect UGA and Bobo to move relatively slow to snap the ball and take few chances in this gm and both sides err on punting / relying on the D .. don't see Kirby spiking the ball late on a class act like Dabo last matchup in '21 was an EPIC slug fest... I don't see Klub throwing over this secondary either it'll prob be a trip to pick city if they try to the pass D was insane LY even w some run stop troubles and alot to like returning both D's VERY good in this one ..  

FAN is the only book with totals out and been out a while now and hasn't moved since spring .. might be some smaller shops with totals now but no reliable book yet and wouldn't expect FAN to be all that sharp on these. taking now I think its mid to maybe even very low 40's by kickoff and total drops below freezing in game if they go punt-punt off the bat .. good luck!

SMALLER

PENN ST @ W.VIRGINIA +10.5

BIIIIIG home game for these guys and Nitney's def left something to be desired pretty much from week 1 onward when WV covered the big monster 24 pt spread by a point on the road last year .. Mountaineers formed into a diff team over the course of the year and yeah big monster home opener I'll take it over the 10 spot .. Nitneys are interesting this year they got Kansas' OC and there's reason to think the offense esp the run game could hit an ignition switch replacing dud OC Yurcich who was fired before YE .. what I wanted to see is a crew of WR's join up w them they were very limited in how many targets they had LY pretty much 2 TE's and one WR getting all the targets .. the Kent State xfer guy found out it aint as easy in the B1G Leagues total disappointment nearly led to a disaster w Indy and struggles in quite a few others .. Penn St lost their leading WR to the portal (Ole Miss i think) and a TE went pro and even lost Dante Cephas the kinda dud kent state guy to K-State, 3 OL's to the NFL including OLU who was a real badass  .. they did get one of the Buckeye studs but I'm really not sure they're in a dramatically better spot and we'll see if the new OC can scheme it up .. The D is a concern in terms of dropping off from EPIC levels last year losing Manny to HC Duke and losing havoc machines CHOP and Adisa Isaac to the NFL along w 3 CB's and a LB went pro .. lotta studs .. they replace a few of em w talented SEC portal adds but it just doesn't seem like a sure thing lock down D and the O really has more concerns than optimism .. im less high on PSU than some of the previews unless the O reallllly can turn the corner w Alex Koleniki .. 

WV's offense turned a major corner last year real dangerous run game w Tenn xfer Jahiem White, CJ Donaldson and QB Garrett Greene .. 800 yds each .. lose top WR Carter but the each of the top 5 had 3-500 yds and fairly evenly distributed .. lot to like w a team that can get the ball down field to using 8 or so diff weapons .. we hope Greene can bump that ugly 53% comp up pretty easy and if he keeps the 16-4 ratio and 3% sack rate this offense becomes a total monster this year .. dude is slippery and doesn't hand it over often.. might not see it in this gm but I think WV can hang in there .. the D has some concerns but did last year too and were serviceable .. its the only thing really holding me back from a B12 Champ play and still might take a stab at em .. pretty tough schedule but huge getting just the 4 conf roadies .. 

SMALLER

VA TECH @ VANDY UNDER 55.5

Can't blast this one as FAN puts a stern limit on the totals at least for now .. but this just doesn't scream score fest I think it could get there but Vandy is really devoid of a receiving corps I don't think Diego will be firing deep on these guys I expect a similar game plan to what they had him doing vs Auburn just pick up the first downs and try to wear these guys out .. looong 10 min drives and Diego is the dude to do that and Jerry Kill on the offensive staff as an advisor I feel like HC Lea will listen to someone who turned NMEX State around the way he did .. since Vandy is basically N.Mex State of the P5 ranks .. and I'm not totally sure VT will pummel Vandy either they def ran it up vs some weaker teams down the stretch Wake, BC, UVA and wouldn't trust Tulane's bowl squad they had 2 feet in the portal by that gm .. frankly I'm not totalllly convinced V-Tech has totally turned the corner to the levels they're being projected at .. the ACC looks pretttty tough this yr and hiding among the big 500 and 600 yd games down the stretch were 140 total yds vs Ville .. ho-humm day vs FSU .. 350 vs NC State .. Vandy is none of them but I think its a slow burn run-run game here and VT has a sneaky killer noncon schedule to start the @Vandy, Marsh, @ODU and Rutgers off a bye before they go @Miami, @Stan .. if I were coach I'd watch very closely the minutes guys play in the first four esp w the game locked up .. very tough to be competitive in the conf if you're staggering into those B2B roadies vs the Canes and that trip to Stan on the end of the stint is pure nasty, great spot for Tree to sneak a win .. the Herd, Monarchs and Rutgers will be trying to take VT's heads off all have more than a little history .. anyway like the under in the opener think decent chance it moves down when lines open at other shops maybe 51 or so is the right number here .. gulp .. lol

love those Unders Bridge! Sure appreciate the good info my brother! GL this year

@BigTymePlayer25

 Hahaaa yeah well don't go crazy i mean we could all imagine a big VT score fest after how they ended last year and think vandy came out with 7 straight total overs then total 63.5 felll wayyyy under vs ole miss missed a few down the stretch .. that team had no run game and 3 good rec targets .. this team can I think only run and will prob be diego pickin up first downs .. same if we see the backup dual threat utah guy couldn't connect with squat albeit true fr thrust into the mix there but yeah lotta running around and brought him in for wildcat duty in a few games for a few runs and no passing .. we'll see on vandy's D va tech could run it up and maybe vandy is playin catch up .. if vandy keeps up then we can say VT likely has a real problem stopping a run game .. as for CLEM/UGA yeah idk how in the world I mean maybe UGA houses em here for 35 and clem maybe 14 or so but that assumes they don't kick FG's .. Dawg's offense been on a tear last 2 yrs lookin at em I think they find some regression this year .. better said if if UGA's offense hangs 5TD's on Clem's D without any ST or Def scores or anything wacky / last moment etc then you can go ahead an CROWN THEIR ASSES!! .. 

SSN WINS

LSU UNDER 9.5 -110 (ESPN)

Shot ESPN down to -130 with that bet sorry, hit also at MGM for -125 best odds out there .. -130 is available and woulda smacked it there too .. Hail Caesar The Sharp dippin the odds to -145 .. they know whats up .. this opened pre-spring 9.5 and takin decent odds under but we didn't have a true sense of what Kelly was able to do w the portal with a MASS attack on their talent loads from last year .. 10 NFL quality players left and lotta big draft picks in there 4 off 6 def .. and just a GAGGLE of guys who were backups last year or high rated depth players hit the portal .. 10 off 12 def .. 4RB's 2 WR's, 2TE's, 2OL's, 3DT's, 2DE's, 1LB, 2 Safeties, 4CB's .. all told 32 players out the door from a team hitting nearly its offensive peak last year and on D had a total meltdown .. The Irishman bagged AJ Swann at QB, I like CJ Daniels ALOT from Lib at WR and prob Miss St's best WR too .. got 1 DT, 2 Safeties and 1 CB .. so 7 in the door Phil has only 1 as a starter wheras they basically lost 10 starters .. LOTTA STEPPIN UP TO DO ON THIS TEAM and given ALOT of the portalers in last year were duds on D and alot hit the door this year I'd say very tenuous on the personnel / roster front what we can expect to keep the O tickin and turn the D around big .. and i mean .. BIIIIIG .. 

SP+ is tough to compare between seasons but we're seeing LSU at #9 with a precipitous drop outside the top 10 .. pretty normal for .. LSU features an ELITE offense up there w UGA and Oregon .. essentially no change from LY .. this is ridiculous on its face losing ULTRA GAMER HEISMAN in Daniels and 2 first round WR's .. they lose their OC Denbrock to ND .. hard to tell if he was a genuine architect of this juggernaut offense or he just let Daniels run wild and hit his 2 first rounders or run for TD's .. doesn't matter .. all gone .. Offense is probably a little overrated anyway given how they really were shooting for heisman stats down the stretch and zero % chance they are sitting on an elite top 2 offense now .. the Trad-Run game wasn't used often last year, they have a decent looking RB room but lotta guys xferred prob feeling a bit left out of the fun .. WR room looks good, Hilton and Lacy were quality but they don't have PFF grades resembling anything like the others, there's reason to be hopeful the unit looks okay with experience talent and depth but 3 real LEGIT SEC stars have to emerge .. the OL getting rave reviews but idk if they can do normal run blocking yet the RB's didn't do well vs better comp FSU or even in the bowl w Nuss at the helm so very high run y/carry and very low sack rate prob doesn't carry over .. I have OL depth as a significant concern, major potential drop off with a single injury .. oh yeah and Nuss replaces a heisman and AJ Swann behind him .. Nuss w a nice bowl game but he's hit more/less even TD-INT and he's not a mobile QB .. it'll be alot diff to rack up the yardage this year .. 

^^LSU CONT'D .. 

Defense is a total concern they fell apart last year and Kelly made a good move bagging Mizzoo's DC but maaan DL looks maybe in really bad shape with 3 NFL'ers and 3 backups leaving, that unit is more than concerning its prob BAD .. OL moved to DT was getting starting reps in spring and to everyone's shock they got NO xfer post spring so far .. DE's lose a good dude in Oghuofo and they'll need to do ALOT more with much less help from the BIGS Maason, Jefferson and WIIIING-OOO .. Swinson is the main returning pass rusher if he goes down the unit is probably in trouble and prob need STUD true FR Da'Shawn Womack to step up huuuge just to be a decent SEC unit .. LB lost a gem in Speights .. Perkins has to carry this unit, he goes down its trouble .. The back end can't be as bad but again lotta injuries killed things LY but also a real problem getting DB's to perform and this yr lose an NFL caliber dude in Andre Sam and many others portaled out .. they need safeties and CB's step into starting and 2-deep rolls .. True Fr PJ Woodford at starting CB in phil right now .. Sage Ryan moves from starting CB to Safety I assume needed him there LY because of injuries .. lot of position switching I noticed when browing phil, OL to DL just stuff you don't wanna see.. there's a few xfers in the back end could possibly survive but feels like a crap shoot and Kelly totally crapped out w the DB's they brought in LY Denver Harris, Duce Chestnut and a couple more got hurt whole thing was a mess .. Mizzoo DC had about 90% of his def snaps back to have a great ssn totally experienced 2-deep .. he's lucky to have 1-2 experienced at some spots .. The DL situation alone is bad enough but outside of the starters at LB I don't see much promise here

Schedule isin't friendly the non-con slate goes to Las Vegas for USC .. I reallly like SC them hiring away UCLA's DC, Trojans maybe very sneaky in wk 1, might be the only team with anything resembling a D in that gm and best believe Vegas gunna be wild to see the Trojans getting about a TD in that one .. get FCS Nichols and then @S.Car conf roadie before UCLA and SO.Bama .. that UCLA spot is ugly off the conf road game, S.Bama not as strong sure but I'm not as low on them and absolutely will show up to play a BIG P5 team .. LSU gotta have the switch stuck to ON and wax the early slate all 5 are must wins to beat us .. bye week then its Ole Miss always a tense rivalry .. @Ark is off a bye, @TAMU is not a bad spot for them off Miss st and S.Car on deck .. Bye then showdown vs Bama, @Florida UF maybe walking dead and will absolutely hurl their best punch to beat these guys very big former x-div rivalry revenge game .. EPIC downer vs Vandy, Dores off a bye is such a hiddeous spot I'd take the points now if that was on the board .. finale home vs Oklahoma, I'm higher on them than some others are .. even w no CCG or post-ssn implication OU yr 1 of their SEC journey is going to show up for that gm I can't see them in a dead spot going to tiger stadium.. LOT of traps and bad spots think its 7-8 wins, maybe worse if things sour early and Kelly looks at his team and says start playin for next .. Count them out now for the SEC champ gm or playoff shot, no chance for that .. 

Bridge , great info , as always. I think with all of the Conference / team roster

changes, we have got a great chance to find a few that the Oddsmakers might

misprice during the first 3 weeks of the season. You are the best bud , at

putting in the work that we , as bettors need to do  to compete as all this

TP / Nil stuff evolves. Good Luck this season my friend.

Blessings and thanks for sharing with the Forum.

@WISEGUY36

Thanks brother, yeah me too .. always fun to fool around w SP+ and see all the ebb's and flows thru the season .. and last yr as always lotttta big movers early and quite a few misnomers too early on too esp in G5 as they play non-cons many which are just a total mismatch .. Miami OH last year not terrible expectations heading intot the ssn dropped 7 points after that Miami-Miami drubbing .. went 10-2 ATS from then on en route to a massive 22 pt SP+ climb .. unfortunately I took the Birds in that big slaughter and had a few other 'misnomer' games week 1 like BG, NMSU that made huge runs after an early ugly loss and yeah for the most part I left those studs and stuck around w a few too many duds .. gotta trust the ole gut in this game ...

Anyway I'm usually lookin for teams gettin too many points in the GOY's this time of year... maybe I missed out with seemingly a number of US books hanging GOY numbers as early as possible and seems like they've been chopped down or maybe books are staring at THE BLOB OF UNCERTAINTIES this year presents and just being super stingy  handing out freebie points this early .. They're def not giving the dogs what SP+ with a reasonable HFA adjustment would imply .. maybe the move is to go the other way and play a fav layin 3-4 points when we'd have gladly taken a free +8.5 with the dog? .. there's def reason to think favs will be more than happy to light up a big name opponent this year if they're able to get their hooks into em ..

always good to hear from ya .. best of luck w the pre-ssn and .. of course .. DA ACTUAL SSN!!!!

MACTION!!!

W.MICHIGAN 10-1 (BOL)

MAC futures always show up late and think this settled quick at the 10X spot with the books willing to offer us some MAC-Tion .. had my eye on this already waiting for others to hang their numbers and yeah the trend I see is W.Mich is coming out a little bit lower .. BOL might be the last 10x out there now and doubt it'll be there after this bet .. Can't speak on what to do below these odds frankly I'm not ENTIRELY sold or solid on the team .. but we do have a team that looks to be turning around and has experience and some decent production back in each unit .. we also have a Broncos team that's reallly fallen short of expectations since PJ Fleck's BIG 2016 13-1 NY6 year .. there's been no shortage of high ret pro years or promising outlooks but its fallen short each time even with some really fun offenses but D has been such a killer .. Lance Taylor took over last year and did much better than expected W.Mich was rated very very low with only 2 ret starters on D, but they were competitive in quite a few games and given what they've got this looks like a great shot to turn things around .. gunna need to X our fingers a bit here with new OC Walt Bell and new DC, but for this team change is probably good.. What's to like is the Offense has ALOT to work with esp at the skill positions.. Defense brings quite a bit back and brought in a few P5/4 xfers to bolster the front .. the prob with the MAC D's always starts up front can't stop the run and then nobody needs to pass and you have no chance to string wins together .. DL and LB looks like a real strength this year, relatively speaking... Offense has 2 legit stars at WR and RB and the other starters/backups give them plenty of targets including 2 TE's to throw at .. I'm not gaga for Hayden Wolff but he took over last year and wasn't bad and had some real magic in '21 with ODU .. off their cancelled covid year they were 1-6 only win vs a dud fcs team, Wolff took over at QB and rattled off 5 straight .. musta been one of the most improbable mid-ssn turn around bowl runs in history .. Then found a way to beat VT in the opener next year .. well he never really had a team to keep the magic going until now so .. let's go Hayden .. clap-clap .. clap-clap-clap

The kicker for me is I don't see a sure thing in the MAC this year Miami OH off a great run, they look strong again, but they got picked apart a bit by the portal and lost a few REAL DUDES on an offense that can't afford to lose anyone and couple studs on D transferred .. MIA was maybe the top ST team last year and stud kicker off to Bama.. Toledo shoulda romped this conference for 3 yrs and story of them was losing when they should win easily .. they're still a contender but lose some REAL DUDES this year.. Ohio looks like a rebuild but could be a contender with an easy schedule. BG and N.ILL also have a real shot. Pretty crowded field but besides Ohio its pretty much a round robin with teams playing 4 contenders while W.MICH only plays 2 and both come in the back end @N.ILL and BG .. the conf foes are very beatable till then and good chance to be 4-0.. and hope they beat NILL so our conf odds plummet and its easy to make a hedge at that point if needed or ride it out .. we want that option because its not an easy ending B2B SUPER RIVAL Michigan squads to close out the reg ssn.. But the schedules are very tough for everyone, everyone gets a big rivalry at the end .. were getting 10x for I think a legitimate 'why not us' team with a great shot to make the champ game... maybe the chops to win it. GO BRONCOS!

Whatsup Bridge?

I see you’ve been putting in the work and being absolutely thorough as always.

Love D-Pav out of Cruces, Grayson McCall and most of all, your homer love for Dilly Dilly and the Devils. Fork em. Hope all is well.

@BubbaGumpShrimp

Thanks bubba .. yeah Devils sounded mildly interesting before the qb and wr and a bunch of others took off .. again .. but whatev we'll still have fun w it ..... maybe .. lol .. all is good brother hope the same for you!

SSN WINS

MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115 (FAN)

Minny been searching for their soul after years of bad OC's and injuries '22 featured ton of inuries to WR's and only pass game they had was w their TE .. last yr what looked like the maybe could be possibility of a chance of a positive turn with new OC and some real rec targets took a very dramatic ugly turn early on as we watched Athan Kallimacmannisisi sum up his career at Minny week 1 vs Neb .. huskers had a good pass D but coulda been anyone, the Greek suuuuucked baaaad .. Star LB Cody Lindenberg injured too and team went Hindenberg .. lotta Newbs played all yr on D over the year true fr playin CB by year end .. 

Brighter times ahead starting w kicking Athan out and bringing in a good lookin FCS star Max Brosmer from New Hampshire .. not an expert but I don't have to watch much of him to see the quick release, good moves and can fire it into traffic or put a nice touch let the WR catch up .. 36 starts 8500 yds, gave NH one of the lowest FCS sack rates while there..  he's ready for a real shot .. Minny found a legit RB DUUDE LY in true FR Darius Taylor .. that unit is bolstered big this yr w Marcus Major from OU and Sieh Bangura from Ohio and a couple more could get in there .. huuuge unit and they can all carry a load .. Daniel Jackson is a legit WR they need to find another big target to effect the year but the rec TGTS all finally have a chance with a good QB and there's a few prospects / xfers to like here .. experienced TE room, very experienced OL w 4 back and the new OL-C started a few last yr too .. all big and couple all cons already .. Greg Harbaugh at OC seemed promising and gunna cut him some slack for LY's ugly yr .. 

Def has alot to like up front and DE might be their best group in a while .. got Cody Charles Lindberg ready to fly at MLB and his backup is the ret starter was pretty good in his absence .. little less certain on the back end but its promising enough that they won't be pushovers. I was turned off initially with DC Rossi leaving for Mich St he was top tier on the 'trusted' DC list .. but bringing in JMU's DC '19-21 and DL coach there and layed the groundwork for the destructive force we saw the Dukes become last couple yrs. Rutgers LB coach last 2 yrs crafting their destructors, their turnaround is completely D led .. so not a better sitch w/out Rossi but it feels good .. and ST looks real solid w a real all con kicker and solid punter top long snapper .. ST is the decider in so many games and def an edge we'll take over a season bet .. 

^^ MINNY CONT'D .. 

Minny sitting pretty ugly in SP+ last yr declined 15 pts from pre-ssn so a boost of +7 from ly to now and the model is not really calling for a much better team, currently at +5 which is 1 tier up from the B10 bottom dwellers and the implied RSW is 5.5 wins. SP would struggle to recognize player quality off a year of injuries and bad QB play and few dud yrs, FCS xfers, etc all things that keep a rating pushed down and value maybe solid if there is a turn .. even if not we're still getting + odds from the iffy low model rating and just not seeing a team w their profile sinking much lower, lotta room to go up tho..

Schedule feels good got UNC off the bat and while nobody likes what minny has done in noncon play recently this is a MAAAASSSSIIIVVVEEE home opener for them and really nothing on deck for a few weeks FCS RHI, BYE, Nevada, any chance for a turnaround starts with not having the team sit around for a month in despair waiting for conf to start .. Fleck cannot pitch another dud or it really could be his last and this feels like a must win at home ... got Iowa at home and we hope they're 4-0 heading into huuuge rival Michigan who just embarrassed em last yr .. USC @UCLA, MD, @ILL, @RUT, PSU, @Wisco .. PSU in that big home spot like back in '19, @UCLA is gunna have ALOT of fans travel to Padadena, Fleck in his presser already talking about that game, won't be overlooked.. USC, MD at home feels good .. Mich looks like the only sure thing loss but they have a few questions too .. otherwise nothing looks unwinnable. All told think we lock in 2 wins, 3 as a small favs, 4 tossups, 2 as a live dog and just the 1 more than likely loss.. they had surprise 8 win reg seasons in '21,'22, made a bowl w 5 wins LY's dud ssn and Minny likes to go bowling, shown up and won 6 straight.. this team looks like at least a 'make a bowl' squad .. 

There's concerns with some of the depth at some spots .. and yeah the main concern is QB depth .. normally like playing SSN Wins with a known backup QB, Minny has fairly unknown prospects .. but its a team that's BUILT for a heavy run assault w the OL and RB room and should get even more traction with a real passing threat .. and risk is lower w the schedule they can reasonably meet this win total early on, UNC, Iowa @UCLA, MD are very beatable .. USC is on the road to Minny off Wisco and PSU on deck is an ugly spot for them .. even w a QB issue Illinois and Rutgers won't be unwinnable .. can x my fingers on this one .. 

SMALLER

WEEK 1 UNC @ MINNY -1.5 (CZR)

Said above its a massive game for Minny .. took a gander at UNC and I don't think they'll be as bad as they might sound or what's expected .. MAC finally making a looong overdue move to change his DC and that can only help .. as with other TAMU QB's in the Jimbo Era I think we can give Max Johnson the benefit of the doubt he wasn't good w them but then again neither was Haynes King and then he goes to GA-Tech and becomes RSW and ATS .. KIIIIING .. all that said I like Minny for this yr and short line I'll bite .. other sites moving up to 2.5 and maybe it goes to 3 or more at some point I'd rather take em at this spot .. GO GOPHS!!!

SMALLER

GOY WK 5 UNC -3 @ DUKE (MGM)

Don't have to dwell on UNC much I don't think they'll be in as bad a shape as expected enough key pieces return and the massive drop w SP+ seemed a bit pre mature .. dropped like 10 points in Bill's first SP run in feb.. thats alot .. since moved to -6 .. thats still quite a bit .. Duke moved down -4 and if there's a team that still needs a MASSIVE SP+ adjustment its them .. whooooly smokes I previewed this team and all I can say is this is trouble all the way .. moving to a fast paced air raid with new OC who was with Lashlee at SMU and back to when he and Manny were together at Miami .. first time as a true OC/Playcaller and also the QB coach .. new QB Malik Murphy didn't play this scheme but he can get the ball down field w a big arm .. looking at the spring gm tho he's pretty inaccurate and thats what his PFF also says in his limited play at texas .. accuracy below 60% means no chance to ever hit 60% .. if not fixed this high passing fast paced offense is just gunna turn the ball over quickly .. Loftis looked okay but small arm only threw short in the spring and yeah this scheme just isin't for him w the super wide WR splits .. Murph gets hurt and they'll have to change the whole offense .. They do have a couple WR's that could work out and Jaquez Moore at RB is a holdover and apparently Star Thomas is incoming to play RB or WR .. or both, they need guys at both spots .. TE has 46 yds and nobody else has played .. the OL is about as bad as I've seen they had 5 total for the spring gm and rotated 5 in on one drive and then went skelly the next .. it won't be true FR 2-deep they added post spring FCS xfers .. the experienced guys give up ALOTTA pressures and sacks and can't get anyone injured clearly .. its bad .. The D has a slim chance to be okay Manny and Texas St DC have worked together and they'll be bringing ALOT of pressure on teams .. the problem is I don't see anyone who was very effective at that last yr .. each unit has a guy or two that is experienced CB has a couple but the depth is totally untested at every level and lotta spots with FCS xfers or freshman .. the DL is well under 300lbs both lines probably getting wrecked .. not a good situation for a fast paced and probably ineffective offense .. Anyway, can't call it a BP I really dont like to lay any pts in a Huge rivalry on the road but I looked at Duke and yeah gotta fade them I think the cat will be out the bag vs northwestern and this line could be UNC -7, or if Dukies get anyone hurt in fall camp or weeks leading up .. eesh .. DUKE YOU GUNNA STAAANK!! ..

Bridge , gutsy call on Minny, in their opener, my friend. Neither team can play

defense and you are betting against Max Johnson and on the kid from

New Hampshire who will be playing his first game at QB in the BIG.

This one's a " no play " for me.

Good Luck bud  

SMALLER

WK1 OLD DOM @ S.CAROLINA -17.5

Lotta talk in Cockville about a big bounce back year fans real excited about Beamer making them competitive in the SEC for the first time in quite a while .. last year was so epically bad for a few reasons and my notes painted an ugly picture all the way back to fall camp with what was already a tentative situation with their OL turning nasty with multiple injuries .. had the RB situation marked in red needing to move WR's into the unit .. spot on looking back it was horrible 9 sacks week 1 vs UNC OL starting 2 true fr and phil notes a new OL combo the first like 10 weeks 10% sack rate on the year hung over them like a rock 41 given up on the year but it did get much better late in the year basically 4 sacks given up last 3 vs Vandy, UK and Clem .. the run game was awful top RB 700 yds provided no relief for Rattler while he was hitting a huuuge 68% of his attempts 19-8 ratio under constant pressure and really just had 1 main WR target in Legette .. all things considered the D scores misleading as they had 3.8 y/carry in conf and 62% passing while not having much of a pass rush and still managed to go +4 in turnovers .. 

The big news obvi is Rattler is gone .. I got a glimpse of Sellers in spring and he's a real legit dude with his escapability .. unclear yet on passing but he wasn't a dud and could break pressure and become a real pass/run threat .. biiiig dude too 6-3 240 and a guy teams will have to plan around with his skill set or he's gunna burn em .. Robby Ashford is nobody's hero QB but 2 years playin and similar skills on the ground .. if he came in late in a game vs ODU think decent chance to lead a TD drive or just move the ball run the clock out .. RB room a lightyear ahead with Rocket Sanders from Ark and Oscar Adaway from UNT both big 225 pound rumblers both can catch the ball and block .. they lose the lone target Legette 1200 yds LY .. next target had 300 .. but I'll trade that for their situation now Gage Larvadain from Miami Oh is the real deal finally playing in a real offense and while many of their new targets are from G5 they're all real productive Brady Hunt at TE OFY LY is also legit 500 yds at Ball St 6'6 250 very big target .. the wildcard is of course #1 Freaks List Nyck Harbor 6-5 242 makin the NCAA Track championships, skipped the olympic trials to get back w the team .. its a real question if he'll ever be a star SEC WR but teams MUST account for him w a safety spy or he's housin it .. OL much much better situation with an experienced 2-deep and with a 4% sack rate LY and no big prospects coming in IDK if monarchs present a real challenge to the OL .. the main thing is that ODU gotta specially account for Sellers and Harbor and that probably means all world LB Jason Henderson gotta spy Sellers and not cause trouble elsewhere .. ODU got all new secondary and need to account for Harbor going deep .. lotta bases to cover .. too many for these guys ..