CFB Picks and why

Luca - didn't see your post until now - I would of take Illinois:) j/k - didn't touch it.

Kiem - back at ya

We went 7-2 yesterday - record stands at 11-3.

Let’s look at some numbers:

         Purd     111    81    99   50 

8.5   Marsh   2      32      23   124

Marsh opens up as an 8.5 fav – currently around 7.    Marshall is better in every category except schd. Strength.   Historically with this line and this situation – the home team often covers the spread and often blows out the other team.   I’m taken Marshall.   The line drop makes me pause but I trust my numbers.   Lets try to keep it rolling.

Good luck all

Firecracker - back at ya

Record stands at 12-3 after Marshall came thru for us.   Let’s look at some numbers:

14 Ohio st   9  19    1   29

     VT          99  21  40  55

Line opened up at 14 currently around the same.   Oh st. is better in all 4 categories. 

So far this weekend we have had 6 situations like this.   2 of the 6 covered the opening line barely – sc ( - 1) and baylor (-34).   The other 4 games where the away team favorite did not cover, Pennst, Stanford, Mich st, Miss. St.   Prior history – shows the away team with an opening line in the teens and similar patterns – the away team often gets the cover.  Alabama played vt with similar numbers in 2013 (I believe) and a spread of 17.5 – they covered.   I believe OH st gets the cover tonite.     

Even though I have a teaser with VT +20 – I’m going to try for the middle and take Oh. St – 14. For the record – the teaser is not part of the official record – just the ohio st -14 pick.   Good luck to all. 

noosh - back at ya

Monkee -long time no see - yeah we have bee rolling

Narco - Back at ya

Mike - Same to ya

Situation - back at ya

Noosh - I was shocked vt scored and I got the middle - so I got my teaser and ohio st on the 14 point spread - wow -great weekend.

melo - posted periodically during the season LY and prior years - posted during  bowl season the last couple of years - did pretty good.....not sure of the records but have been pretty consistent - the bowl record may still be out there.  It's constant process improvement. We are on a run - let's see if we can continue it. Thanks for the comments - back at ya