CFB Week 5

YTD: 14-11


Just one early one:


Virginia Tech -6.5

Thoughts can be found in the first few posts here. Cliff notes: Good time to sell Clemson off two huge wins. VT under the radar and I like them to wake up in their first real game of the year. Night game on the road in Blacksburg in this spot will be very tough for a Clemson team with a bad defense.

More later in the week.

   I'm NOW with you on this one !!!! Many Thanks

yeah probably be on my card this week best of luck andarmac

nice grab, i'm waiting for VT to prove they're this good but the HFA is huge and you're right about how it's going to be very tough for Clemson to put out a great effort on the road (especially if they see some early adversity)

good luck buddy

I think you got it at the right time I already see 7.5. 

This sounds like madness but the Michigan/Minnesota game will be decided in the 4th quarter.

Not sure what you mean by "bad defense".


gl

and the bookmakers clearly have huge belief in Oregon State this week. Last game of the night, coming off a big win vs Missouri, then what ended up being a cover against Illinois (you can't tell me that people who took it at the final 2.5 didn't buy at least a half point) then a THRASHING of USC on espn. Not a single person who likes ASU at 17/17.5 wouldnt've liked them at a 20.5 open, and a bunch less people who were hoping for 21 points are afraid to bet Oregon State at this number. That's a very solid one as well.

not a "bad" defense at all actually

This is also the same guy that bet these games last week: ULL +6, Ole Miss +10, BYU -1.5, Arizona +15, West Virginia +6, Michigan -10.5, South Dakota moneyline.... Who in the world writes that Arizona against Oregon would be one of the best bets and says Georgia is a clusterfuck and cant win road games?  Also said you were doing kentucky plus the points??  Doesnt sound to good of a bettor to me.  I would have done the opposite on most of these, actually put 100 on LSU -6.5 last week, had georgia in a teaser and oregon in a teaser

rilesm81, posted record is 14-11. get over yourself, he's betting against clemson not your mom.

clemson defense:

90th in total d - 405.5 yds and 6.26 per play

66th in scoring d, 25 points per game

85th in rush d - 175.5 and 4.82 per rush

73th pass d, 229.75 per game

good luck on the play Andy  

Ok...we all know about the emotion angle...the 3rd straight quality opponent for Clemson...blah blah blah. But I have to ask the Va Tech backers how Applachian St, E. Carolina, Arky St, and Marshall will prepare the Hokies for the speed of this Clemson squad? Throw the comparisons of the defensive stats out the window. Clemson played Auburn and Fla St. and moved the ball at will. Does Va Tech have enough offense to score the 30 pts or so they will need to cover this line? Clemson should be able to score 24-28 pts in my opinion.

captjohn....

Go away moron.

yeah ok t6rider... we'll see then.  Ill be back right here after this game is within 7.  Wouldnt call me a moron until you see that score.  And yes,  betting on WEST VIRGINIA, that is a moron. 

rilesm81, i am not criticizing anyone, just presenting facts

I get the same feeling.

CLEMSON'S OFFENSIVE RANKS

First of all I Had South Dakota + the points, not the moneyline. And I lost that bet on a TD run in the last 2 minutes where they were one play away from running out the clock. Yes, Georgia is a complete clusterfuck on the road, did you not see how badly they tried to give away that game? Arizona lost but if you watched the game they had receivers running wide open in the 1st half but Foles was off and they killed themselves with penalties, it was too much to overcome in the 2nd half. I would bet them in that spot again 100 times out of 100. Oregon is way overrated. Nice hit on LSU.

VT doesn't have speed? They haven't been practicing against similar speed for 2 months? I think they'll be fine.

Not at all what I said so I will rephrase. This is a giant step up in class for the Hokies. My point is that Va Tech is completely untested (and whats up with why Va Tech plays so many cupcakes year after year?) and other than the emotion factor and home field, what justifies a 7 pt line here?

Who is "We"? Do you play on the team? Hey I get that you are a diehard fan but I'm here to try and make money and IMO this is not a good spot for Clemson. I could be dead wrong, I have been plenty of times before and will be plenty more times in the future. Try not to get so upset. You're analysis may be dead right but I just have a hard time taking anything you say seriously when you say We about 10 times in three paragraphs. It doesn't sound like you're being too objective.

"Clemson just has to cut out big plays given up."

That's all? OK sounds like they just have to flick the big play switch to "off" then.


This defense will be top 40-50 this year you can COUNT on it.  Will not be top 25 but are tremendously under the radar because of the offense.  If you dont believe me check back once we stomp teams like nc state/boston college/etc about 38-10 or so.

Maybe they will be and in no way am I disagreeing with you on that point but right now they aren't playing well. I'm not sure what stomping NC State and BC has to do with playing a night game in Blacksburg against a Top 15 team?

With all that said, we will probably lose this week.  EVERYTHING was put into winning the past 2 weeks.

Now you are being realistic. And isn't this what I said was the main reasoning for this play? The bad defense is a secondary reason. The #1 reason is its a terrible spot, which is a fact you seem to acknowledge.

We will not lose by 17+ though, hahaha, I would bet anyone right now we wont lose by more than 10.

A 10 point loss sounds great to me. Shit, I'd take a 7 point loss whether they lose by 7 or 50 I don't care as they both pay the same.

You can laugh or say I am over-exaggerating our offense but the past 2 weeks i have been dead on with both games and with the scores just about. And people said I was crazy.

Go back and look at my Week 3 thread. I loved Clemson against Auburn and oddly enough some of the reasoning was because it was Auburn was on the road for the first time off of two wild home wins, kinda sounds familiar. Go back and look at my thread last week in the first post where I said I had several other leans but the lines got away. You know what one of those was? Clemson. I would take taken them +3 but I missed out and they were then favored. I can't bet a favorite when +3 was available that's horrible. The last two weeks were great spots to bet Clemson and IMO this is a great spot to go the other way.

Feel free. This is one game of at least half a dozen I will be on this Saturday. Win or lose I will be moving on about 2 minutes after the game so if you feel the need to come back and play the "I told you so" game then go right ahead but people that do that look like total losers.

I try to get on or against teams a week before the perception of them changes. I feel VT is undervalued and Clemson is overvalued right now. If I wait and VT beats up Clemson then I have lost a ton of value. VT is a very talented team that finally has a chance to wake up and put it together and I think they will.

other than the emotion factor and home field, what justifies a 7 pt line here?

Those are the only two things they need.