CFB Week 5

V TECH always a well prepared team

Good luck Andy. Good thoughts on this match up.

Good luck andy  

Pittsburgh +1 (2nd half)

Pitt has lost two games in a row in the 4th quarter blowing leads both times. They are in the lockeroom right now preaching FINISH. I don't think they're going to let three straight games slip away.

South Florida's defense is out of gas. They were on the field a ton last week, now on short rest and a long flight we see that they just don't have their legs. Can't make 2nd half adjustments when your problem is you are out of gas. The only stop they've made so far is a Pitt fumble....not good.

Completely agree.  Im on the same!

No, I don't have any numbers on it I just had a feel on this one. I wanted to take PIT for the game but couldn't get the 3 so I thought the 2H might be worth a shot if in fact USF was out of sorts which was why I liked PIT in the first place. I saw all I needed to see in the 1st quarter, that defense was exceptionally flat.

btw - Saw your post earlier and I do sort of agree that laying 6.5 against Clemson is tough but it just looks like a flatspot for the Tigers. I put potential letdowns (or flatspots) into two categories:
 
1. Is where a team wins a big game or games and then finds themselves as favs over an inferior team. That type is a spot where they may still be celebrating their big win and are overlooking their opponent or not taking them seriously.

2. The other is the one where I see Clemson this week and that is where they have physically and emotionally put so much into a couple of recent games that they simply run out of gas. I think this is the "letdown" angle that is often overlooked. There's no doubt Clemson won't be overlooking Va Tech but my question comes regarding whether or not they will have enough left in the tank to keep up with what I think will be very fresh VT legs.

I had Clemson the last two weeks but that soft defense will be exposed this week in their first road game.  Will be a big play for me.  GL buddy.

Have a great weekend buddy

1-0 so far.

Virginia Tech -6.5

Miami (Ohio) +14


The rest:

Kentucky +17 (1st half)

LSU is off of two high energy road night games that they have put a lot into both physically and emotionally. Now they have a noon kickoff against a doormat. On top of that they have Florida at home next week. This just looks like a game where the Tigers come out sleepy and go through the motions. Yes Kentucky sucks and LSU's defense is A+ but would anyone really be surprised by a 10-3 or 13-6 score at HT?


Florida Atlantic +8.5

One thing I often like to do is bet against favorites in unfamiliar situations especially after big wins. Last week it was FIU as a big fav after a couple of big wins and now we find ULL as a big fav off a win as a 17 point dog and they find themselves as a big fav in an unfamiliar spot after winning just three games all of last season. I don't care how bad Florida Atlantic has looked or what they've done, look at the deathrow schedule they have played. To say this is a step down in class is an understatement. Let's see how ULL does after such a big win.


Boise State -16 (1st half)

Sticking with the 1st half in this one because Peterson pulled Moore last week and said he has no problem doing so again in the future. Let me just start by saying I really like this Nevada team and think they are underrated, I would have been on them last week had the line not dropped so much. However this is a tough spot playing their 4th straight road game in 4 weeks against a team they know they probably aren't going to beat. And all this comes after a heartbreaking loss in the final minute as a huge dog. The Wolfpack may not have much left for this one and to make matters worse they face easily the best defense they have seen all year in this one. I don't think Nevada will be able to slow Boise at all and this is a great spot for a Boise running game that has surprisingly struggled all year to rip off some big chunks. Nevada will run the table after this game but I'm not sure they can hang here.


Bowling Green +18

BG is much improved this year but this is more of a fade of West Virginia. Although I don't see a devastating hangover for West Vag as they had their chances against LSU but I just have a tough time seeing how they get their energy levels back up after getting them up so high for their GOY last week. Gameday in town, night game on the grand stage against LSU on ABC. Now they host Bowling Green and after losing? How do they get up for the game? The weather forecast for Morgantown tomorrow calls for half an inch of rain, 30mph winds, and a high of 45 degrees. Yikes. This is going to be such a cold, depressing atmosphere after last week. I don't see how they can get up.


Waiting on two more. One for a better line and the other I may be getting cold feet on.

GL this week.

uh ya, okay.......we'll see, thats fo sho!

uh ya, okay.......we'll see, thats fo sho!

gl mac

Nice hit on Kentucky FH...Just watching that game may load up on LSU 2nd H...UK offense is pathetic.  LSU D just toying with them out there.

I got out of the full game with West Vag -17.5 and will eat a little juice. After thinking it over if West Vag doesn't have it like I expect to start then Bowling Green should cover the first half. The Mountaineers have a spread offense that is based on rhythm. If they don't have the rhythm they may not have much success. However if they find the rhythm in the 2nd half they should be able to score. Therefore I will go with the better bet than the full game:

Bowling Green +10 (1st half)




San Jose State +3.5

I'm not sold on Colorado State. They had a big win last week where Utah State shot themselves in the foot moreso than CST won it. The offense has struggled to move the football all year. SJSU is much improved this season. They hung tough with Nevada and UCLA and their 54 point loss to Stanford was pretty misleading, they were only outgained by about 150 yards. These aren't the same doormats from the last couple of years. I know it is tough to play @ Colorado State but I think I have the better spot and the better team.


Oregon State +17

Shit this is one ugly play. My problem with Arizona State here is that it is a trap game. The win over USC last week was a lot bigger for them than most people realize. They also have a huge game @ Utah next week that will likely determine the winner of the P-12 South. Between these big games they played maybe the worst BCS team there is that lost to Sacramento State. State has been known as an immature, undisciplined, poorly-coached team and if there is one thing those types of teams do it is to mess up in spots like this and do everything possible to let their opponents hang around. Oregon State looks so bad they might just cover this week.


GL

LSU's offense kept Kentucky in it earlier, they were really out of sync. Late in the 2nd though the Kentucky defense looked like it was starting to wear down. Really glad I hit the 1st half in that one and made the right call.

You were dead right about this game. Clemson went in there and just ate VT up. Nice call. I was way, waaaaaaaaay off. It will be interesting to see how far they go this year.

A much deserved.........

LETS REHASH EVERYTHING I TRIED TO TELL PEOPLE ON THIS POST.... DONT SAY A WORD YOU BETTER NOT TRIED TO TELL YOU AND YOU DOUBTED US.  I TRIED TO SAVE PEOPLE FROM BLOWING THEIR MONEY AND THEY DIDNT LISTEN....GO BACK AND READ WHAT I WROTE.

LETS REHASH EVERYTHING I TRIED TO TELL PEOPLE ON THIS POST.... DONT SAY A WORD YOU BETTER NOT TRIED TO TELL YOU AND YOU DOUBTED US.  I TRIED TO SAVE PEOPLE FROM BLOWING THEIR MONEY AND THEY DIDNT LISTEN....GO BACK AND READ WHAT I WROTE.

yeah ok t6rider... we'll see then.  Ill be back right here after this game is within 7.  Wouldnt call me a moron until you see that score.  And yes,  betting on WEST VIRGINIA, that is a moron.

KISS MY ASS

You won. I lost.

I'll fade them again next week and get it back but let's not waste another 70 posts on that.