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*** Clemson / Bama ***

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:


I was scrolling in my old Facebook messages and saw where an ole high school- college buddy of mine

You're buddy's initials are DC.  I know him.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by dmncnlou:

What's funny is this bullshit narrative that Clemson wanted Alabama to right a wrong. Saban knew months ago they would meet again. You know his scouts have been game planning since. If Va tech gave Clemson help them what you think Alabama is gonna do?!



Clemson knew all year IF they were to make it back to the Championship they would face Bama.  Don't you think they have been preparing for this too?

Anything CAN happen, but if turnovers are =, I think Clemson wins this outright.
 
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Posted: #28
Actually most of the public is on Clemson 

 
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Posted: #29
Cooler, it really doesn't matter what anybody THINKS the line should be. The fact that it is under a td speaks loud. Bama backers will look at that and say to themselves, wow, Bama only has to beat a team they beat last year by a td. They couldn't have put it higher becuase that would swallow up Clemson money and no way it can be lower becuase Bama money would be rolling in too. The line is perfect in that it really forces the bettor to take the fools gold in Bama or roll the dice and think revenge is worth a getting 6.5/7. The line, in my eyes says it all.

 I don't care about Kiffin's absence and it weighs nothing in my decision in taking Clemson. I think regardless of the o coordinator, hurts will feel the wrath the same way cam newton did in last years super bowl. Like cam, the accuracy isn't there and the offense is a bit overrated aside from the running game. Bama will have to establish the run for hurts to be effective and Clemson knows that. Everybody is talking about the Bama defense.....I think the defense that comes up huge in clemsons. 

I told a buddy I'd be interested in seeing what the money line would be for Clemson and said if it were under +200, Clemson is the side. They can't make it too high yet +190 makes it look sexy but still high. I forecast that to move down to about +180/+175 come game time. The +105/+110 for Clemson +6.5 is there to get bettors to take rather than the ML because books don't want to pay that money out. Again, I look at the super bowl last year and this line is very similar. Perception versus reality. What is the media telling all the sheep all week? It's there.....do u hear and see it? GL ALL 
 
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Posted: #30
You think Bama loose stop Pitt ? Laughable 

Bama 35-28
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Ramanujan:

Can someone please offer a coherent counter argument as to why Alabama will win and cover?

This thread will likely be over ten pages by game time but will be worthless aside from the OP without a decent counter....

I actually think the play is Clemson +7 (or more specifically Clemson +3.5 1H), but if you want a counter argument here it goes:

Clemson's weakness on O is their O-line (kind of stating the obvious), but specifically their RT & LG who will be matched up against two top 15 picks in this upcoming draft--Allen and Williams. I think Bama could dominate this match up, which could lead to some negative plays and maybe a turnover or two. Also Bama's two ILB this year are faster: Foster lost 20 lbs from last year and Evans is much faster than Ragland. I think that helps prevent some of Watson's scramble plays--6 yards vs 8 yards on 3 & 7 could make the difference in this game. Bama might use Evans to spy Watson (they did that a bit in the 2H of last years game). Honestly worried about Williams making some big plays, but Humphrey is a good corner. Although I think he is overrated, he is projected as a 1st round pick. Averrett is the other corner--its his first year starting, but I he has been just has productive as Humphrey IMO. 

On to Offense...Bama's QB is definitely holding them back, but its not like they leaned on their QB last year to win the game. The two QBs are just different. Coker could utilize his deep threats better and Hurts can hurt you with his legs. They have phenomenal skill players and a couple stud RBs. The O-line gets downplayed a bit, but I think they are better than they get credit for. Clemson's D-Line is on the same levels as Bama's and is deeper. Still think Bama can run enough to stay balanced on offense. Scarborough has slowly been moving up the depth chart and think he will be the premier back in this game. Think Bama will be able to utilize their TE again this year--these might be the two best TEs in CFB. Boulware cant cover Howard.

Think motivation factor is equal and I actually like the fact the Sark is taking over. Bama will be better on D and O from last year, but I think Clemson will as well. Bama wont have the ST advantage though as Clemson has improved significantly and Bama no longer has a game changer returning kicks (Jackson went down mid year). 

I thought early in the week Clemson would win, but now I think Bama wins 27-24. 

Bama covers if they get a late defensive TD. 

These write-ups are arduous so I kind of tailed off half way through, but happy to discuss. 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by the1trugr81:

Quote Originally Posted by dmncnlou:

What's funny is this bullshit narrative that Clemson wanted Alabama to right a wrong. Saban knew months ago they would meet again. You know his scouts have been game planning since. If Va tech gave Clemson help them what you think Alabama is gonna do?!
Clemson knew all year IF they were to make it back to the Championship they would face Bama.  Don't you think they have been preparing for this too?Anything CAN happen, but if turnovers are =, I think Clemson wins this outright.


Who didn't know Alabama was going to make it?! The problem is Alabama has the best talent, coaching, scouting, and infrastructure. Listen, Washington would beat Ohio St. Ohio st. Was absolutely nothing!
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by usmabama:


I actually think the play is Clemson +7 (or more specifically Clemson +3.5 1H), but if you want a counter argument here it goes:

Clemson's weakness on O is their O-line (kind of stating the obvious), but specifically their RT & LG who will be matched up against two top 15 picks in this upcoming draft--Allen and Williams. I think Bama could dominate this match up, which could lead to some negative plays and maybe a turnover or two. Also Bama's two ILB this year are faster: Foster lost 20 lbs from last year and Evans is much faster than Ragland. I think that helps prevent some of Watson's scramble plays--6 yards vs 8 yards on 3 & 7 could make the difference in this game. Bama might use Evans to spy Watson (they did that a bit in the 2H of last years game). Honestly worried about Williams making some big plays, but Humphrey is a good corner. Although I think he is overrated, he is projected as a 1st round pick. Averrett is the other corner--its his first year starting, but I he has been just has productive as Humphrey IMO. 

On to Offense...Bama's QB is definitely holding them back, but its not like they leaned on their QB last year to win the game. The two QBs are just different. Coker could utilize his deep threats better and Hurts can hurt you with his legs. They have phenomenal skill players and a couple stud RBs. The O-line gets downplayed a bit, but I think they are better than they get credit for. Clemson's D-Line is on the same levels as Bama's and is deeper. Still think Bama can run enough to stay balanced on offense. Scarborough has slowly been moving up the depth chart and think he will be the premier back in this game. Think Bama will be able to utilize their TE again this year--these might be the two best TEs in CFB. Boulware cant cover Howard.

Think motivation factor is equal and I actually like the fact the Sark is taking over. Bama will be better on D and O from last year, but I think Clemson will as well. Bama wont have the ST advantage though as Clemson has improved significantly and Bama no longer has a game changer returning kicks (Jackson went down mid year). 

I thought early in the week Clemson would win, but now I think Bama wins 27-24. 

Bama covers if they get a late defensive TD. 

These write-ups are arduous so I kind of tailed off half way through, but happy to discuss. 

Much appreciated!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Cover34:

Boom...I know its been awhile and I'm glad your back talking college football. Ohio State had no business playing in the final four, but my god I did not think they would get blown out!.. Was a rough New Yrs Eve watching the game with pops..


Hey bud

Never did I think Ohio st wasn't a good team... I thought they were a good team. Did they belong? I don't think so... I think their blue blood status got them in... I have much respect for Ohio st...

Clemson is just much better and 31-0 showed that.

Urban is a great coach...he will bounce back.

Make no mistake about it... dabo is building a powerhouse...
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by tytn4lyfe:

Boom - Great points. I'd like to offer my thoughts...

I see this game being a great one against the 2 best teams this year. I don't believe this game will look anything like last years game. Bama's D is much better and wants to prove that last year was a fluke. Say what you will, Kirby Smart leaving had some effect on preparation but there is no doubt Watson is a great athlete and exposed the Bama D last year. Clemson is the best team Bama will face all year and especially on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest difference is the Bama D line can get to Deshaun without blitzing and is much faster. He won't run away from Anderson, Allen and Williams. I said in my write-up in the Washington game that Bama's speed on Defense will make the difference. While I will agree that the Clemson D is very good, they haven't played up to the level of the Bama D. Bama's offense will struggle but it all comes down to whether they can run the ball or not and let's face it, Bama has very capable playmakers on the outside to keep Clemson from packing 8 in the box. Ridley can get deep and Hurts has enough mobility and athleticism to find him. OJ Howard will be a huge factor again and I would look for Stewart to be a big factor as well. Quick screens and jet sweeps will open up the run game for Scarborough and Harris. If the Clemson D keys on the RB's, then Hurts will keep it and they have to factor that in as well. Last year Coker was a Statue back there and this season Hurts adds the mobility factor. I expect Alabama to be more balanced in this game and play better on offense than they have in several games. Williams is a beast for Clemson and I would be lying if I said that he wasn't a concern but the bigger factor for me is whether the Bama D can contain Watson and not allow him to scramble for first downs and continuing drives. Bama plays a lot of man to man and that may be an adjustment in this game to keep Watson in check, double team Williams over the top and rush with the front 4. I don't see Clemson running the ball, nobody has all year. This game comes down to who runs the ball better, gets turnovers, plays better D and is solid in special teams and for me, I have to look at the team that has been doing those things well all season. Bama has nearly as many non-offensive TD's this season as total number of TD's given up. I don't see that changing in this game. 

It will be a solid game between 2 well coached teams but Bama has too much on Defense and will do just enough on Offense to win this game in the second half. Most everyone I see and read is on Clemson and coming off their huge win and destruction of Ohio State, who can blame them. +7 looks like a gift right?....but when things look too good to be true, they usually are. I look for Bama to win and cover. I would also give the Under a solid lean...

Good Luck to your boys and either way, college football is the greatest and the best 2 teams will play it out on the field. Roll Tide!

BOOM 


Thanks for the well thought out response.

here is where im going to disagree on a few things.


1. He doesn't have to run away. the great misconception about people who run is speed.... If you watch Watson, he has great vision... He doesn't have to be very fast to make a great impact on make guys miss... Remember a guy named Marius Clarett? I always thought he had great vision... never a run away from you type guy but could make you miss in the open field.

2. See I think Ridley has been hurt by the fact Hurts can't get him the ball....Ridley at times has been a non factor...

3. I agree Clemson wont " run the ball " straight at Bama.... Nobody has.... But what Clemson will do is exploit the secondary thus opening some running lanes.... Clemson doesn't have to run for 200+ vs Bama.... they just need to accumulate 90 - 140 yds between Watson and Gallman... and they will.

4. I think Clemson + 7 is not only a gift....but a complete disrespect. Clemson is mucccchhh better than Bama fans want to give them credit for... Not saying you.... but in general. IMO, the 2 best programs in the country are bama and Clemson.


 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Cooler, it really doesn't matter what anybody THINKS the line should be. The fact that it is under a td speaks loud. Bama backers will look at that and say to themselves, wow, Bama only has to beat a team they beat last year by a td. They couldn't have put it higher becuase that would swallow up Clemson money and no way it can be lower becuase Bama money would be rolling in too. The line is perfect in that it really forces the bettor to take the fools gold in Bama or roll the dice and think revenge is worth a getting 6.5/7. The line, in my eyes says it all.

 I don't care about Kiffin's absence and it weighs nothing in my decision in taking Clemson. I think regardless of the o coordinator, hurts will feel the wrath the same way cam newton did in last years super bowl. Like cam, the accuracy isn't there and the offense is a bit overrated aside from the running game. Bama will have to establish the run for hurts to be effective and Clemson knows that. Everybody is talking about the Bama defense.....I think the defense that comes up huge in clemsons. 

I told a buddy I'd be interested in seeing what the money line would be for Clemson and said if it were under +200, Clemson is the side. They can't make it too high yet +190 makes it look sexy but still high. I forecast that to move down to about +180/+175 come game time. The +105/+110 for Clemson +6.5 is there to get bettors to take rather than the ML because books don't want to pay that money out. Again, I look at the super bowl last year and this line is very similar. Perception versus reality. What is the media telling all the sheep all week? It's there.....do u hear and see it? GL ALL 


this




 
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Posted: #37
I want to throw something out there and see if anybody in here can come up with the correct answer.

Where is the biggest weakness on the Alabama team?


I know the answer without question.... I want to know if anybody else knows....



 
 
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Posted: #38
Fg kicker and punt return laoing jackson and not even close...Can't say special teams bc our punter is one of best in country..

Second would be deep ball within secondary 

Always respected u and agree Bama and Clemson are two best programs in the country but believe Bama wins it like 27  17 type game.  It will be much different than last year and much lower scoring.


 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

I want to throw something out there and see if anybody in here can come up with the correct answer.

Where is the biggest weakness on the Alabama team?


I know the answer without question.... I want to know if anybody else knows....



 

Boom,

Glad to see you posting here once again. I have off and on read these forums from the shadows, not posting much as my post count shows I am sure. However, I do read many opinions on here mostly from the more respected opinionated posters as yourself. You have always been a "realist" and always liked that about people. 

I myself, like to think of myself as a "realist". I am admittedly an Alabama fan and have been born and raised to be one. Chiming in on some things said this thread. 

First off for your question, it is a good one. There are 3 areas that have concerned me over the past I would say 3 - 4 years. Field goal kicker, secondary, and the O-line. All of 3 which I feel can earn the title as "weakest link of Bama team". If i was to choose just one, I would have to say the O-line, closely followed by the kicker, and then the secondary. All of which I have yelled at a considerable amount these past few years. Cristobal is a hell of a recruiter, but our O-line since hiring him has just not been the same. I think the clemson D-line gives us fits this game.

On to my 2 cents of the game and matchup. I will say I was considerably nervous last year as I am for most any big matchup. This year's game is the most nervous I have been since 2009 SEC Championship against Tebow and company. It is no secret that it took everything out of Alabama last year to win the game. Bama won the game but did not out-play Clemson by any means. It took: broken OJ Howard play(s), onside kick, ridiculous kickoff return, plus more to score more than Clemson last year.
Do I think Alabama deserved to win last year... ehh sure maybe but I think the better term to describe it was "relieved" we pulled it off.
Any team can be beat on any given day and here we are again with another heck of a game on the horizon. Thus Alabama pulled it off last year in a one for the ages victory with a little bit of everything on defense, offense, and special teams.

These are my main points of focus this years game:

1 of 2 if not honestly both of these things has/have to happen for Bama to win: O line play lights out. Secondary steps up.

1 of 2 if not honestly both of these things has/have to happen for Clemson to win: Watson continue to be best player and pass well. Clemson D-line contain/make Jalen Hurts average.

Alabama good points:
D-line one of the best
Defense is overall faster
dual threat qb adds a new element
freak athletes all around
The old saying "defense wins championships" has deemed true
Nick Saban

Alabama bad points:
secondary is still the same secondary. refer to Ole Miss
kicker is still iffy
O-line play has been sloppy
recent surge of penalties

Clemson good points:
Deshaun Watson is the best player out there
Mike Williams is going to score and is the best WR out there
D-line is crazy good yet again
Revenge game/Motivation
Overall experience
Offense SHOULD be able to pass over bama comfortably again

Clemson bad points:
Can defense contain Hurts, OJ, and stable of RBs? 
"New" OC at Bama could throw defense off
Defense can be suspect at times (refer to V-tech, Pitt,FSU, Louisville)
SHOULD not be able to run on Bama 


Overall I love the matchup. I would be lying if I did not say I wanted Michigan this year in the title against us but I honestly believe the two best teams are playing this year (again). Best of luck to both teams. Excited to watch.

Roll Tide, good luck tigers.
 
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Posted: #40
Bama biggest weakness in my eyes is jalen hurts. That's huge considering he has the ball in his hands every down. He has hidden behind the running game and defense all year. No hiding anymore. One can say the secondary but in order to expose that secondary, you need time. Bama front 7 doesn't give much time. 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

I want to throw something out there and see if anybody in here can come up with the correct answer.

Where is the biggest weakness on the Alabama team?


I know the answer without question.... I want to know if anybody else knows....



 

Unequivocally the downfield passing game. 
 
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Posted: #42
I like Clemson and the points in this game.  Don't know the team nearly as well as you, but that D totally dominated Ohio state.  While osu is no Bama, don't kid yourselves, they have some terrific linemen on O and D, and solid athletes at all positions.  This should be a great football game and the difference, imo, is Watson.  He is pretty awesome at the most important position on the field. He will be the difference maker if his O line shows up.  I'm betting they do.  GL to all. 
 
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Posted: #43
Boom, Good to see your thoughts on this game.

I know plenty of college football but not an expert on either team here.  A couple things that go hand in hand jump out at me from Connelly's advanced stats review.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/4/14164166/college-football-title-game-2017-alabama-clemson-preview-prediction-stats

Alabama's offense is much more efficient (success rate) on Standard Downs (#13) than the same efficiency category on Passing Downs (#41).

In other words, when they stay ahead of the chains in manageable down and distances they are much better at putting together long efficient drives.  They don't do so well at overcoming passing down & distances (2nd & 8 or more, 3rd & 5 or more) to maintain drives compared to their peers.

Most noticeable number in the entire report is Alabama offense is ranked #105 in Standard Down sack rate.  If/when Bama elects to pass on standard downs, Clemson getting pressure with only 4, maybe 5, guys while the rest drop into coverage should give them fits.  So, big key is stopping the run game on Standard Downs.  I think Clemson will hold their own there and forces Hurts/Sark, etc. into some Passing Down situations.

I'm riding out my Clemson +800 & +700 futures and a couple small plays on +3.5 1st half and Under 55 -130 (taken before the OSU game even ended)

Best of luck to your team.  I'd like to see a great game on Monday night!


TD
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by MoJoe87:


Boom,

Glad to see you posting here once again. I have off and on read these forums from the shadows, not posting much as my post count shows I am sure. However, I do read many opinions on here mostly from the more respected opinionated posters as yourself. You have always been a "realist" and always liked that about people. 

I myself, like to think of myself as a "realist". I am admittedly an Alabama fan and have been born and raised to be one. Chiming in on some things said this thread. 

First off for your question, it is a good one. There are 3 areas that have concerned me over the past I would say 3 - 4 years. Field goal kicker, secondary, and the O-line. All of 3 which I feel can earn the title as "weakest link of Bama team". If i was to choose just one, I would have to say the O-line, closely followed by the kicker, and then the secondary. All of which I have yelled at a considerable amount these past few years. Cristobal is a hell of a recruiter, but our O-line since hiring him has just not been the same. I think the clemson D-line gives us fits this game.

On to my 2 cents of the game and matchup. I will say I was considerably nervous last year as I am for most any big matchup. This year's game is the most nervous I have been since 2009 SEC Championship against Tebow and company. It is no secret that it took everything out of Alabama last year to win the game. Bama won the game but did not out-play Clemson by any means. It took: broken OJ Howard play(s), onside kick, ridiculous kickoff return, plus more to score more than Clemson last year.
Do I think Alabama deserved to win last year... ehh sure maybe but I think the better term to describe it was "relieved" we pulled it off.
Any team can be beat on any given day and here we are again with another heck of a game on the horizon. Thus Alabama pulled it off last year in a one for the ages victory with a little bit of everything on defense, offense, and special teams.

These are my main points of focus this years game:

1 of 2 if not honestly both of these things has/have to happen for Bama to win: O line play lights out. Secondary steps up.

1 of 2 if not honestly both of these things has/have to happen for Clemson to win: Watson continue to be best player and pass well. Clemson D-line contain/make Jalen Hurts average.

Alabama good points:
D-line one of the best
Defense is overall faster
dual threat qb adds a new element
freak athletes all around
The old saying "defense wins championships" has deemed true
Nick Saban

Alabama bad points:
secondary is still the same secondary. refer to Ole Miss
kicker is still iffy
O-line play has been sloppy
recent surge of penalties

Clemson good points:
Deshaun Watson is the best player out there
Mike Williams is going to score and is the best WR out there
D-line is crazy good yet again
Revenge game/Motivation
Overall experience
Offense SHOULD be able to pass over bama comfortably again

Clemson bad points:
Can defense contain Hurts, OJ, and stable of RBs? 
"New" OC at Bama could throw defense off
Defense can be suspect at times (refer to V-tech, Pitt,FSU, Louisville)
SHOULD not be able to run on Bama 


Overall I love the matchup. I would be lying if I did not say I wanted Michigan this year in the title against us but I honestly believe the two best teams are playing this year (again). Best of luck to both teams. Excited to watch.

Roll Tide, good luck tigers.



First of all wow....

You need to post more often.

You are all over it.... The OL is the correct answer, but as a collective " group " they're not the weakest link. But overall the OL is very very good. But I was looking specifically one part of the OL....


The Answer is the Center, Bradley Bozeman.

Bradley Bozeman IMO is the weakest link of the entire football team.

Monday night you will see a few different things when it comes to the play of the Alabama center..... Brent Venables will  "A" gap blitz him all night long.... Big Dex, Carlos Watkins, Christian Wilkins and Scott Pagano will dominate this matchup.

Venables will "stunt" and "A" gap blitz this area and exploit the Alabama OL...forcing Hurts out of the pocket into the blitzing corners and LB's.

This matchup alone is the most overwhelming talent differences among the 2 teams..... Clemson will completely throw this OL off the ball by doing this thus really altering the game plan of the Alabama offense.

The worst pressure a QB can have is not guys coming off the edge....... don't listen to the nut jobs on ESPN.... The worst kind of pressure is the kind of pressure that right in your FACE.... when the pocket is pushed back in your face, it's the worst.



  
 
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Posted: #45
Payne
Crimson
TD
Achillies
Big Earine
 
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Posted: #46
Boom, I'm having a hard time seeing the Alabama side of things in this one,  No one's making a case for them, and I feel like I might be missing something, but I'm starting to think Clemson will win by 2+ scores.
 
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Posted: #47
Great analysis boom boom, and moejoe, good stuff as well. This game can't get here soon enough. 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by mws:

Boom, I'm having a hard time seeing the Alabama side of things in this one,  No one's making a case for them, and I feel like I might be missing something, but I'm starting to think Clemson will win by 2+ scores.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Buddhaguy:


You're buddy's initials are DC.  I know him.
.  One of best ppl I've ever known.He is actually where the Elite meet ...Harry's. These Hammers are eating up this Clemson Gropers aren't they? I see 1 video or comment a day about it.Let those Clemson boys grope us and see what we do!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by mws:

Boom, I'm having a hard time seeing the Alabama side of things in this one,  No one's making a case for them, and I feel like I might be missing something, but I'm starting to think Clemson will win by 2+ scores.


In theory... Alabama doesn't need to make a case for themselves. They are the gold standard of college football...

But you're correct...I don't see much of any break down for Bama.... Jimmydafreak will at some point....  
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