estimated week 1 lines

longhorn - hard to disagree much on those thoughts, only thing MD has going is 5-2 ATS as double digit dog over last 3 seasons (missing by 1 and 4 in losses), may not mean much or have enough for it to even matter in this case just one factor of many

Thanks for the takes...

Maryland is expecting to be in a rebuilding mode, but the fridge is a good coach.  Maryland does indeed have some offensive weapons.  Plus, despite the revenge motivation, how much will Riley be clicking with his WRs in the "first" game.  Cal will destroy WSU and Washington and others on its schedule later in the season.  But, could this be a possible "back door cover" for MD after Cal gets up by 21-28 early???  MD is picked last in its ACC division this year ranked only ahead of Duke.  I am still on the fence with this game.  Yes, I know, we still have two months and a lot can change.  But, I like to start out the first week with some solid wins for the bank roll.

 

Does anyone else have thoughts on the Cal, Texas, Tenn, and/or Stanford picks?

These were the stats and trends I saw in the Cal/MD game i wrote up in Double's thread.  In those other games, I have not looked into them yet, but I would say these things right now.

 

1) I might take Texas until they don't cover. EVERY game they play up to OU is a "statement game" IMO, with style points the possible reason for them to be in the BCS title game.

 

2) Lane has had a lot of bad press to start. there is a real quick way to change all that. the "we're back B*tches" statement game. Yeah, to be honest, I don't know who they are palying if I didn't just look back at a previous post. Just my opinion though.

 

Here is te Cal/MD stuff-

 

 

if above are golden nugget GOY lines released according to another thread posted today, several close to original estimate  - couple different than expected - Illinois 2.5 (vs 7)....thought Illinois would be at least 5, ND 17 (vs 10)....did not figure it would go more than couple TDs given Nevada pretty tough offense to shut down all day, and FSU 3 (vs 6)...rivalry and history of close games keeps number couple lower than expected so not surprising

You guys are in full swing 32 posts ... It is June 30th

 

 

Nos that last post are lines being projected by Golden Nugget.  Damn Ole Miss laying 17  quite a difference from last year 9 1/2 to 10 if I recall. I hate laying that much wood but probably will here

 

I'll check back when season gets closer 

Oregon @ Boise St (-5)
Utah St @ Utah (-30)
South Carolina @ NC State (-4)
North Texas @ Ball St (-22)
Troy (-3) @ Bowling Green
Tulsa (-20) @ Tulane

San Jose St @ USC (-30)
BYU vs Oklahoma (-21) @ Arlington, TX
UL Monroe @ Texas (-39)
Navy @ Ohio St (-19)
Georgia @ Oklahoma State (-3)
Va Tech vs. Alabama (-3) @ Atlanta, GA

Akron @ Penn St (-29)
LSU (-18) @ Washington
Missouri vs. Illinois (-7) @ St. Louis, MO
Maryland @ Cal (-13)
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (-3)
Middle Tenn @ Clemson (-19)

Baylor @ Wake Forest (-9)
Florida Atl @ Nebraska (-23)

Northern Ill @ Wisconsin (-16)
La Tech @ Auburn (-15)
W Kentucky @ Tennessee (-25)
Connecticut (-10) @ Ohio
Mississippi (-17) @ Memphis
Central Mich @ Arizona (-17)
Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami OH @ Cincinnati, OH
W Mich @ Michigan (-7)
Nevada @ Notre Dame (-10)

San Diego St @ UCLA (-17)
New Mexico @ Tex A&M (-10)

Toledo @ Purdue (-12)
Colorado St @ Colorado (-13)
Rice (-3) @ UAB
Minnesota (-5) @ Syracuse
Stanford (-15) @ Wash St
Buffalo @ UTEP (PK)

Idaho @ New Mex St (-10)
Army @ E Michigan (-2)


If These were the lines today I Would Bet on These Games...

But I look for N.Texas To get a few more points, Troy to be laying around -7,V.T vs Bama To be a pick em come game time,Illinois to be around -4.

GL this year..
 

This is a team I am actually going to be playing this yr as a home dog. They were 2-2 LY as one. Minny has Cal coming to town after this game. I think this line will be more like 7. That is all I am looking for. Anything more than that I will be thankful for.

 

Mike Williams returning to the team is a huge boost, one that will give this offense some much needed action. he will be double teamed most of the yr.

 

i think I am in the minority though, won't talk you out of that bet on Minny, prob good one.

all

 

bustin - yeah unfortunately that showing against TT in the bowl added a few points to this one, which could have been around 12-14 before that

 

boom - could be that UNT gets more than that hopefully, would have been 30+ last year just depends how much Ball St gets marked down for couple offensive losses, GL this year

 

word is not many if any were actually able to get Illinois -2.5 at golden nugget, even though it was on the 'sheet', at the window they were getting more like 4.5

 

new coaching/outlook at Syracuse could help some, still short on talent and had some problems in spring, surprisingly Orange actually closed with 5-3 ATS and couple upsets last year after power rating dropped so far early, Gophers pretty solid so number under TD might look pretty good, a lot could depend on how game starts if offense struggles or gets down 10-0 could deflate crowd

 

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bd,can you tell me these lines are from please

can u tell me where these lines from please

It's the golden nugget A"game of the year" they put out. You can only bet them there.

You can also check the Palms and the Hilton.  If you play offshore books, good luck in finding one that will handle this kind of action.  This is why offshore players are at such a disadvantage.  If you see a bad line now, and think that there will be a drastic change between now and when the game starts, you can not wager on it and lose a potential real good middle.

Being that we're still a few weeks off from any actual numbers being released, I won't worry too much about a field goal here or there, I'll just list the games where he had a bigger difference.

Utah St @ Utah (-30)  I made this one 23, mostly just because of the differences in experience that are coming back.  Not to mention the new USU head coach was the DC for Utah last year there will be no surprises.  At over 24, I'm probably looking to take the Aggies.

North Texas @ Ball St (-22)  I made this one 14, but it should really be in the 17-20 range right in between the two of us.

Tulsa (-20) @ Tulane  I went with 13 here as Tulsa is replacing a lot on their offense which is obviously the team strength.  The fact that they get 8 back on D is meaningless to me.  Tulane is one of my "keep an eye on" teams, not because I think they're any good, but because if Bob Toledo ever wants to be taken seriously again in college football he better get a result this year.

Middle Tenn @ Clemson (-19)  I went larger here, 27.  I love the Sun Belt as much as the next guy, but his is a bad spot for the Blue Raiders even though they have played BCS teams tough before.  Check out what Clemson does at home to those little schools.  Home opener, new era getting under way, night game in Death Valley, etc. you get the picture.

La Tech @ Auburn (-15)  I'm in the clear minority on this game as everyone else I have read made it about 2 TDs and I don't even have it in double digits.  I still need to see something from Chizik and Co. before I make any assumptions, especially about their offense.  LT will eat clock and play good defense, I know that much.

Central Mich @ Arizona (-17)  Here again I might be putting too much stock in talent coming back to small schools vs bigger schools, but CMU has the better offense, there isn't any question about that.  I have it 9.

Rice (-3) @ UAB  I have UAB laying a point here.  Too many losses for the Owls to be an early season road favorite in my opinion.

bookie- You bring up some things that you have to ask 1 ? then? Why the Hell is this team only -6 here?

 

But, if you take a deper look in ere, they are def a better team, but really not that impressive.  They ave 34att, 104yrd a game. That was their lowest since '96. They did only lose 1 O-Line, but that was a line that gave up 30 sacks LY. If you are thinking they were a huge throwing team, they only had 219yrd per game. Now, going back to the number, Minny has only been a road fav once and they are 0-1 in the L4 yrs. They are also only 2-7 ATS vs. N-Conf the L2 yrs.

 

now, I am not saying Cuse is some great team. They also will not be going for the BE title, but look at their covers vs. some good teams.  +14 vs. Pitt (24-34), @ WVU +21(6-21), and @ Cincy +21(10-30). Now, these were times they were getting a lot of pts, but again, this is kinda strange that they will be ONLY getting just under a TD. In week 1, I usually think this is for a reason. I do thing Minny wins this, but not before they almost lose this game. I am waiting for a TD, and I will play Cuse then.

 

Just my thoughts on this match up

 

 

Again, I thinkt he line is just not right, asking you to take Minny, but more important, I just don't think Minny is that good, and I love to bet against teams that think they "should win" vs. a bad team on the road. I don't here anyone say Minny "shouldn't win" by 2 TD's , let alone 1. So why only -6?