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Freak Pics!!! (Week 3)

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Posted: #1
Last week's record breaks down as follows:

Regular Bets:  4-3
Best Bets:  3-0
Max Bets:  0-0
UDMLs:  0-0

***  UDML = Underdog Moneyline

Year to date record breaks down as follows:

Regular Bets:  8-7
Best Bets:  6-0
Max Bets:  1-0
UDMLs:  0-2

***  UDML = Underdog Moneyline

Last week was the first time I was bitten by playing the 1st half under versus playing the game under.  I went UNDER 25 (1st Half) in the Florida/TAMU game.  The teams played almost 2 TDs under the 50-point total, but scored 27 of their 37 total points in the 1st half.    That's a perfect example of being right and wrong at the same time. 

As always, if you have any questions about the games I'm playing, feel free to ask.  I'll do my best to respond.

Early Games:

Louisiana-Monroe +16.5 @ Auburn  *** Best Bet ***

Auburn Team Total UNDER 35 ***  *** Best Bet ***

***  Line is an estimate

Louisiana-Monroe +16.5 @ Auburn UNDER 27 (1st Half) ***

***  Line is an estimate

TCU -20.5 @ Kansas

California @ Ohio State -16.5

Afternoon Games:

Alabama @ Arkansas UNDER 54 *** Best Bet ***

Texas A&M -12 @ SMU

Alabama -20 @ Arkansas

***  Bet assumes Tyler Wilson is not playing

Evening Games:

Western Kentucky +7 @ Kentucky *** Best Bet ***
Western Kentucky UDML @ Kentucky

Colorado State +10.5 @ San Jose State

New Mexico State +12 @ Texas El Paso

Late Game:

BYU -4 @ Utah




 
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Posted: #2
Jimmy

Anything under 21 w/Bama and I'll bite
 
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Posted: #3
Love them ALL.
 
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Posted: #4
Good luck this week.  Is there a reason you do first half under and not game?  I'm guessing you are afraid of overtime or garbage points?

I'm with you on Bama, but against you on Col St.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:

Jimmy

Anything under 21 w/Bama and I'll bite


Cherokee, you have been somewhat equivocal about the Ohio State game this week.  I would like to hear your honest opinion on the game.  I love everything about the Buckeyes in this game, except Urban saying that he was not going to run Braxton Miller as much as he did in the first two games.  That's understandable given that Miller took a lot of hits in that UCF game, and Meyer will need him for Big 10 play.  Maybe OVER 54 is a better play.  What say you???


 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



I'm guessing you are afraid of overtime or garbage points?



Yes . . . exactly.  I do sometimes bet game unders as I have done with the Alabama games the past two weeks.


 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Love them ALL.


I hope that's a good sign!!! 

  Best of luck with your card this week.




 
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Posted: #8

WKU best bet?

can u expound on the reasoning....hilltoppers off a physical game with BAMA.......i know UK sucks, but they've hammered WKU the last few meetings.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:


Cherokee, you have been somewhat equivocal about the Ohio State game this week. 

Honestly, like you and many others around here....this game/spread should be a no-brainer. Cal away from home, 9am game (their time), nagging injuries, getting jordan hall back, etc.. The game could easily be 28-3 at halftime.

BUT.....after watching the first game (possibly the ugliest 56-10 win ever) and a quick replay of the ucf game....I'm not confident in niether the D or the "spread" they run...btw, can we stop the stupid clapping before the snap? HATE THAT - 

Seems some of their play-calling is still being signaled in by their old OC who ran dive, dive, pass, punt every series. GIVEN top playmaker jordan hall has been out the past couple weeks, but still...plenty of kids (besides brax and hyde) who can come out of the back-field and create excitement. Braxton still isn't confident in his throwing, which is the opposite of how his summer camp was....totally different person.

As for the D, well....word has it meyer had a "meeting" with coordinators fickel/vrabel recently about the lack of pressure from the first two weeks....which makes sense, because there doesn't seem to be that "push" you want from future draft picks hankins and simon. Top 7-8 secondary? Not so fast....this is what urks me the most. Same crew from last year, very hyped coming into the year....but stupid mistake after mistake....watch for different schemes and blitzes from the D come saturday...if there's no change, fickel/vrables days are numbered (both will be let go after the season, imo).

I wouldn't mind just enjoying the game and hope for a W, because a part of me feels Cal will give them a game come second half. Give brax enough pressure and he'll run run run, and eventually get hurt if he carries another 25+ times like he did against ucf. I may play the -17 come gametime, but as of now....I'm just not that confident in this spread w/my Bucks.

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



Yes . . . exactly.  I do sometimes bet game unders as I have done with the Alabama games the past two weeks.




I was going to ask the same question...Tailed you last week and will do the same again this week....Appreciate your insight   ....Good luck...
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:


Honestly, like you and many others around here....this game/spread should be a no-brainer. Cal away from home, 9am game (their time), nagging injuries, getting jordan hall back, etc.. The game could easily be 28-3 at halftime.

BUT.....after watching the first game (possibly the ugliest 56-10 win ever) and a quick replay of the ucf game....I'm not confident in niether the D or the "spread" they run...btw, can we stop the stupid clapping before the snap? HATE THAT - 

Seems some of their play-calling is still being signaled in by their old OC who ran dive, dive, pass, punt every series. GIVEN top playmaker jordan hall has been out the past couple weeks, but still...plenty of kids (besides brax and hyde) who can come out of the back-field and create excitement. Braxton still isn't confident in his throwing, which is the opposite of how his summer camp was....totally different person.

As for the D, well....word has it meyer had a "meeting" with coordinators fickel/vrabel recently about the lack of pressure from the first two weeks....which makes sense, because there doesn't seem to be that "push" you want from future draft picks hankins and simon. Top 7-8 secondary? Not so fast....this is what urks me the most. Same crew from last year, very hyped coming into the year....but stupid mistake after mistake....watch for different schemes and blitzes from the D come saturday...if there's no change, fickel/vrables days are numbered (both will be let go after the season, imo).

I wouldn't mind just enjoying the game and hope for a W, because a part of me feels Cal will give them a game come second half. Give brax enough pressure and he'll run run run, and eventually get hurt if he carries another 25+ times like he did against ucf. I may play the -17 come gametime, but as of now....I'm just not that confident in this spread w/my Bucks.



Thanks for taking the time to respond.



I think the Buckeyes defense gets well this week against Cal and their dreadful QB Zack Maynard.

Ohio State is my 5th best play of the early games.  If I hit the other 4 I'm good if this one doesn't hit.  I still think it does though.


 
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GL this week Freak. Really like TX AM. Much line movement on that one. .?????  Also really like WVU and AL/AR under. 

As you know my big bet for the week is TX AM @ -14 and -12 and another in between at -13.5. I am a mess. 

As much as I want to play Bama, sitting on the sideline.  GL
 
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Miss print really like WKU. Joker needs to go 
 
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Jimmy do you parlay all your best bets with your regular bets??
 
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Best of luck this week Jimmy,

 
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gl jimmy

 
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BOL BUDDY. against u on arkansas i think after that ugly loss they will atleast cover. will not be pretty but i am heavily on the other way as a higher unit pick i wish we could both win. have u checked MINNESOTA? i also like the gophers this week
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gmanusc2001:

WKU best bet?

can u expound on the reasoning....hilltoppers off a physical game with BAMA.......i know UK sucks, but they've hammered WKU the last few meetings.



Evidently you didn't catch last year's game where WKU outplayed Kentucky, and probably should have won the game.

I think WKU fields the better defense.  At the very least they have 2 defensive players that are better than anyone Kentucky has on their roster - LB Andrew Jackson and DE Quanterus.  I also think WKU, like last season, will win in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  I also think WKU's offense will have a lot more success putting points on the board.

I understand the line, but I think the Hilltoppers win this game outright.


 
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Jimmy - How confident are you about Colorado St cover 10.5...I'm seeing alot of people jumping on the Rams....As usual appreciate your great insight...
 
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Jimmy, really respect your opinion and what you bring to the forum



BUT



why colorado state?

they beat a garbage Colorado team and lost to NDST badly..

San Jose St very improved and i feel they cover the 10.5 with ease...i have them winning by 24...34-10...just wondering what you see in these garbage rams?

BOL man, again, really respect your thoughts.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BiggdaddySHY:

GL this week Freak. Really like TX AM. Much line movement on that one. .?????  Also really like WVU and AL/AR under. 

As you know my big bet for the week is TX AM @ -14 and -12 and another in between at -13.5. I am a mess. 

As much as I want to play Bama, sitting on the sideline.  GL


Yeah, there has been a lot of fluctuation in that TAMU line.  I'm guessing someone like Dr. Bob released SMU as a service play.  Whatever the case may be, I'm happier than a lesbian with a liquor license    to snag a line south of 14.  I think TAMU will destroy Garrett Gilbert and SMU, so in the end I don't think the line will be a factor.

The under in the Bama should be another easy winner again this week.  The Arkansas Team Total UNDER 17 will also be an easy winner (will add that play at some point).  Both of those bets are better than laying the lumber with Alabama.  That said, it's looking more and more likely that Wilson won't play.  John L. Smith is suppose to make an announcement in the morning from what I understand.  If Wilson is a no go, Alabama will win this game by a ton.


 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Star1:



I was going to ask the same question...Tailed you last week and will do the same again this week....Appreciate your insight   ....Good luck...


If I like a 1st half under, I also like the game under.  So if you're more comfortable betting the game under, go for it.  I like to doing game unders for Alabama games because their scoring is often weighted to the 1st half.  If they have a big lead in the 2nd half, they usually go into clock grinding mode.  If everything goes as planned in the Arkansas game, I'll be on the 2nd half under as well.




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