If you want to know who’s going to win this game, I have two words for you: D’Eriq King. Yes, this isn’t the King Harley Race. This isn’t Rodney King. We don’t have to all get along. This King will be returning to the U next year, and everyone is all excited because now the U is the favorite to win the ACC next year. Clemson who? Never mind all of the hype. I have two more words for you: Chuba Hubbard. Chuba is / was Oklahoma State’s best player and team leader, and he’s not playing against Miami.
OSU finished the regular season well short of its conference and national championship aspirations. Miami could not have finished the season any worse, letting North Carolina run all over them. Without Hubbard, the Cowboys offense simply does not have that kind of arsenal and a super aggressive Miami defense is likely to get Oklahoma State into a lot more 3 and longs than they signed up for. In order to cover this spread, Oklahoma State has to win outright and they are only 1-3 against teams that are as good or better than Miami (losses to Oklahoma, TCU and Texas and a win over Iowa State). Miami’s defense, despite the UNC nightmare, has been pretty strong all season with half of their opponents being held to under 20 points. The new “U” unveils on Tuesday…taking the Canes.
2
Miami +2.5 Oklahoma State
If you want to know who’s going to win this game, I have two words for you: D’Eriq King. Yes, this isn’t the King Harley Race. This isn’t Rodney King. We don’t have to all get along. This King will be returning to the U next year, and everyone is all excited because now the U is the favorite to win the ACC next year. Clemson who? Never mind all of the hype. I have two more words for you: Chuba Hubbard. Chuba is / was Oklahoma State’s best player and team leader, and he’s not playing against Miami.
OSU finished the regular season well short of its conference and national championship aspirations. Miami could not have finished the season any worse, letting North Carolina run all over them. Without Hubbard, the Cowboys offense simply does not have that kind of arsenal and a super aggressive Miami defense is likely to get Oklahoma State into a lot more 3 and longs than they signed up for. In order to cover this spread, Oklahoma State has to win outright and they are only 1-3 against teams that are as good or better than Miami (losses to Oklahoma, TCU and Texas and a win over Iowa State). Miami’s defense, despite the UNC nightmare, has been pretty strong all season with half of their opponents being held to under 20 points. The new “U” unveils on Tuesday…taking the Canes.
It seems like once the pressure came off of Texas, all they have been doing has been taking teams to the woodshed and whooping them. However, the selfishness of college football has once again reared its ugly head. Five Texas team captains — including offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi, defensive lineman and linebacker Joseph Ossai and safety Caden Sterns — opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. The only captain who will play is senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has 25 touchdown passes. This actually is more of a relief than a problem, as Ehlinger literally wills his team to succeed. This week, the attack is going to come from the ground rather than the air. The Buffaloes have done well against some of the Pac-12's top passers, but they’ve struggled in their run defense, allowing over 150 yards per game on the ground. Texas’ star freshman Bijan Robinson will be licking his chops once he sees early in the game how poorly the Gak-12 plays run defense.
In their last game, Texas beat Kansas State 69-31. They were scheduled to play Kansas to finish the season and they would have won that game by a million points. This is the Alamo Bowl…and the game is smack in the middle of Texas. Honestly, Colorado just isn’t that good. Bevo has more speed on defense than Colorada does. Their only victory against a winning team was a 3 point win over AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH Stanford. They are ranked on Massey Composite at #33 right above NC State and right below Appalachian State. The Buffs are gonna get pounded at the line of scrimmage and then they are going to want to go home, like the 10 other teams in the Pac 12 already did. We’re laying the 9.5 points and we’re gonna hook ‘em.
3
Texas -9.5 Colorado
It seems like once the pressure came off of Texas, all they have been doing has been taking teams to the woodshed and whooping them. However, the selfishness of college football has once again reared its ugly head. Five Texas team captains — including offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi, defensive lineman and linebacker Joseph Ossai and safety Caden Sterns — opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. The only captain who will play is senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has 25 touchdown passes. This actually is more of a relief than a problem, as Ehlinger literally wills his team to succeed. This week, the attack is going to come from the ground rather than the air. The Buffaloes have done well against some of the Pac-12's top passers, but they’ve struggled in their run defense, allowing over 150 yards per game on the ground. Texas’ star freshman Bijan Robinson will be licking his chops once he sees early in the game how poorly the Gak-12 plays run defense.
In their last game, Texas beat Kansas State 69-31. They were scheduled to play Kansas to finish the season and they would have won that game by a million points. This is the Alamo Bowl…and the game is smack in the middle of Texas. Honestly, Colorado just isn’t that good. Bevo has more speed on defense than Colorada does. Their only victory against a winning team was a 3 point win over AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH Stanford. They are ranked on Massey Composite at #33 right above NC State and right below Appalachian State. The Buffs are gonna get pounded at the line of scrimmage and then they are going to want to go home, like the 10 other teams in the Pac 12 already did. We’re laying the 9.5 points and we’re gonna hook ‘em.
THis mite be fade material, because: me and longhorn both agree with this u...ur analysis is half assed(for lack of a better term), plus there is reverse line movement... here's why I like the longhorns, they are a senior team going up against an underclassman team. texas(HC herman) wants to finish in style while the buffs are just getting their program going...9.5 is a lot of points to give a team that has fought hard all season. In iamhuge's write up, he kinda proves himself wrong when he brings up the stanford game. A game where the buffs were 7pt dogs vs a power run team. If they were so bad at run DEF, then they should have lost game right? No, they won, i dont care by how many, the UD won outright... even with all that said, I like texas for the reasons that i stated. This is bowl season, strange things can happen.
And for the record: the Canes are dead and are not coming back, ever...
1
@iamhuge
THis mite be fade material, because: me and longhorn both agree with this u...ur analysis is half assed(for lack of a better term), plus there is reverse line movement... here's why I like the longhorns, they are a senior team going up against an underclassman team. texas(HC herman) wants to finish in style while the buffs are just getting their program going...9.5 is a lot of points to give a team that has fought hard all season. In iamhuge's write up, he kinda proves himself wrong when he brings up the stanford game. A game where the buffs were 7pt dogs vs a power run team. If they were so bad at run DEF, then they should have lost game right? No, they won, i dont care by how many, the UD won outright... even with all that said, I like texas for the reasons that i stated. This is bowl season, strange things can happen.
And for the record: the Canes are dead and are not coming back, ever...
The Big 10 this season is just like the NESCAC…they didn’t play anyone outside of their conference so we have no idea if they are any good. One thing we do know, the Wisconsin Badgers aren’t any good. They are 3-3 on the season. They are 1-3 in their last 4 games with their only win in OT over a bad Minnesota team. They have scored an average of 10 points per game against teams not named Michigan or Illinois. I’m not a mathematician, but it’s not easy to cover 7.5 points when you only score 10 points per game. Wake Forest is averaging 37 points per game. Their lowest point total is 13 points that they scored against Clemson. Wisconsin is not Clemson. Even if Wake only scores 13 points, that means that Wisconsin would need to score 21 to cover and the last time the Badgers scored 21 points in a game was November 14. They don’t even know where the end zone is.
Fittingly, this is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Duke’s Mayo isn’t as good as Hellman’s. Regardless, the Demon Deacons are going to make mayonnaise all over Wisconsin. No one even knows if Wisconsin’s QB is going to play. If he does, he’ll be all banged up. His backup has been ass. Wake Forest’s defense has been far from stellar, but if they force Wisconsin to throw, it could get really ugly for the Badgers. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has thrown for 1,906 yards with 10 touchdowns and only one interception this season and didn’t throw a pick until the final game of the regular season. He has only lost two games by double-digits this year. If Wake Forest gets ahead in this game, there is no chance Wisconsin can cover this spread. I love the points, and the Demon Dekes.
0
Wake Forest +7.5 Wisconsin
The Big 10 this season is just like the NESCAC…they didn’t play anyone outside of their conference so we have no idea if they are any good. One thing we do know, the Wisconsin Badgers aren’t any good. They are 3-3 on the season. They are 1-3 in their last 4 games with their only win in OT over a bad Minnesota team. They have scored an average of 10 points per game against teams not named Michigan or Illinois. I’m not a mathematician, but it’s not easy to cover 7.5 points when you only score 10 points per game. Wake Forest is averaging 37 points per game. Their lowest point total is 13 points that they scored against Clemson. Wisconsin is not Clemson. Even if Wake only scores 13 points, that means that Wisconsin would need to score 21 to cover and the last time the Badgers scored 21 points in a game was November 14. They don’t even know where the end zone is.
Fittingly, this is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Duke’s Mayo isn’t as good as Hellman’s. Regardless, the Demon Deacons are going to make mayonnaise all over Wisconsin. No one even knows if Wisconsin’s QB is going to play. If he does, he’ll be all banged up. His backup has been ass. Wake Forest’s defense has been far from stellar, but if they force Wisconsin to throw, it could get really ugly for the Badgers. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has thrown for 1,906 yards with 10 touchdowns and only one interception this season and didn’t throw a pick until the final game of the regular season. He has only lost two games by double-digits this year. If Wake Forest gets ahead in this game, there is no chance Wisconsin can cover this spread. I love the points, and the Demon Dekes.
I'm with you on the Horns here and agree with both takes on this. Players opting out or not for them, the seniority remaining, talent margin, and last 3 games I've seen for the eye test; I think this is a solid pick. Can also see this being a good 1H play.
Miami-Okie Lite & Wisky-WF games could go too much either way for me here to want to stay away. All teams are trending in the wrong directions and see enough on the number side for me to be too much of a coin flip. Wishing you the BOL, 'huge!
1
@iamhuge
I'm with you on the Horns here and agree with both takes on this. Players opting out or not for them, the seniority remaining, talent margin, and last 3 games I've seen for the eye test; I think this is a solid pick. Can also see this being a good 1H play.
Miami-Okie Lite & Wisky-WF games could go too much either way for me here to want to stay away. All teams are trending in the wrong directions and see enough on the number side for me to be too much of a coin flip. Wishing you the BOL, 'huge!
COTTON! COTTON! Florida has played four top 20 teams (they lost 3 of the 4) and they scored at least 71 points in all of these games. Oklahoma is averaging 42 points per game. When Florida has played against teams that actually have an offense (Alabama, LSA, Texas A&M and Mississippi) their defense has yielded 41 points per game. That math puts us north of 71 total points in this contest.
Florida will throw the ball 40 times per game. Not sure who’s gonna catch those throws just yet because 3 of their top receivers have opted out. That doesn’t mean their backups won’t make plays, as defense will not be the name of this game as Oklahoma’s star corner is sitting out. The Sooners’ Spencer Rattler will not be outdone, and he will beg Lincoln Riley to let him throw. The Gator’s Red Zone defense is terrible as opponents have scored on 83% of their trips and that is not good at all against the Sooners who have scored on 91% of their visits to the Red Zone.
The Gators won’t be throwing any shoes but they aren’t playing the bowl they want to be playing in. Expect the Gator defense to sleepwalk and Oklahoma will score quickly and often. Kyle Trask is a native Texan and Texas will allow people at its game because they don’t believe in COVID mitigation. They will cheer Kyle Kyle Kyle and he’ll be all faceful because he didn’t win the Heisman. Watch him throw for 450 yards. It’s going to be an aerial attack all night long and this game will go for at least 4 hours. It will be OVER and I will be in bed by 11 pm.
0
Florida/Oklahoma OVER 71.5
COTTON! COTTON! Florida has played four top 20 teams (they lost 3 of the 4) and they scored at least 71 points in all of these games. Oklahoma is averaging 42 points per game. When Florida has played against teams that actually have an offense (Alabama, LSA, Texas A&M and Mississippi) their defense has yielded 41 points per game. That math puts us north of 71 total points in this contest.
Florida will throw the ball 40 times per game. Not sure who’s gonna catch those throws just yet because 3 of their top receivers have opted out. That doesn’t mean their backups won’t make plays, as defense will not be the name of this game as Oklahoma’s star corner is sitting out. The Sooners’ Spencer Rattler will not be outdone, and he will beg Lincoln Riley to let him throw. The Gator’s Red Zone defense is terrible as opponents have scored on 83% of their trips and that is not good at all against the Sooners who have scored on 91% of their visits to the Red Zone.
The Gators won’t be throwing any shoes but they aren’t playing the bowl they want to be playing in. Expect the Gator defense to sleepwalk and Oklahoma will score quickly and often. Kyle Trask is a native Texan and Texas will allow people at its game because they don’t believe in COVID mitigation. They will cheer Kyle Kyle Kyle and he’ll be all faceful because he didn’t win the Heisman. Watch him throw for 450 yards. It’s going to be an aerial attack all night long and this game will go for at least 4 hours. It will be OVER and I will be in bed by 11 pm.
Good teams that want to be there win bowl games. Bad teams that want to go home usually lose. Tulsa was 6-2 on the season with their only losses to Oklahoma State and Cincinnati..both by single digits. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was 3-7 and in only 2 of those games did they show that their Air Raid offense was able to get off the ground. This time they are up against a legit hard nose Tulsa defense, that is 22 in the country against the pass. Tulsa really needs to win this game to certify their season. Mississippi State could give a shit. Going with the Golden Hurricanes.
0
Tulsa -2.5 Mississippi State
Good teams that want to be there win bowl games. Bad teams that want to go home usually lose. Tulsa was 6-2 on the season with their only losses to Oklahoma State and Cincinnati..both by single digits. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was 3-7 and in only 2 of those games did they show that their Air Raid offense was able to get off the ground. This time they are up against a legit hard nose Tulsa defense, that is 22 in the country against the pass. Tulsa really needs to win this game to certify their season. Mississippi State could give a shit. Going with the Golden Hurricanes.
Army came into this game looking for a fight…..any time, any place, any where. Unfortunately this week they will be punching over their weight. First of all, Army can’t throw the ball they beat up patsy teams by running the ball and playing defense. West Virginia struggled in the Big 12 because they couldn’t defend the pass…not a problem here. The Mountaineers actually were the 3 best team in the Big 12 and the 24 best team in the nation at defending the run, limiting opponents to only 126 yards per game. You saw how Texas made Colorado their prison bitch? Well, the Mountaineers beat down the Longhorns offense until they cried like a box – holding Texas to 17 points. Although WVU was only 5-4 on the season, Army will be the weakest team they’ll face this year (other than Kansas and Eastern Kentucky). WVU beat TCU by 18 and vanquished Kansas State by 27. The point spread won’t matter.
Other than Cincinnati, who they lost to by 14 points, Army hasn’t faced a team as tough as West Virginia. They certainly have not seen a rush defense as fierce. The only other decent team they faced was Tulane, and the Green Wave sissed all over the Cadets by 26 points. Army won’t be able to move the chains and all West Virginia has to do is hit a couple of big plays and Army will be playing from behind the whole game. Back door cover is not a factor. The Mountaineers will be stuffing Army over and over. Laying the wood on WVU.
0
West Virginia -7.5 Army
Army came into this game looking for a fight…..any time, any place, any where. Unfortunately this week they will be punching over their weight. First of all, Army can’t throw the ball they beat up patsy teams by running the ball and playing defense. West Virginia struggled in the Big 12 because they couldn’t defend the pass…not a problem here. The Mountaineers actually were the 3 best team in the Big 12 and the 24 best team in the nation at defending the run, limiting opponents to only 126 yards per game. You saw how Texas made Colorado their prison bitch? Well, the Mountaineers beat down the Longhorns offense until they cried like a box – holding Texas to 17 points. Although WVU was only 5-4 on the season, Army will be the weakest team they’ll face this year (other than Kansas and Eastern Kentucky). WVU beat TCU by 18 and vanquished Kansas State by 27. The point spread won’t matter.
Other than Cincinnati, who they lost to by 14 points, Army hasn’t faced a team as tough as West Virginia. They certainly have not seen a rush defense as fierce. The only other decent team they faced was Tulane, and the Green Wave sissed all over the Cadets by 26 points. Army won’t be able to move the chains and all West Virginia has to do is hit a couple of big plays and Army will be playing from behind the whole game. Back door cover is not a factor. The Mountaineers will be stuffing Army over and over. Laying the wood on WVU.
Is there a better team in football than San Jose State? You may think so, but you cannot prove it. The Spartans are 7-0 this year, with double digit victories over bowl winners Hawaii and Nevada. They have already defeated 4 teams that are ranked higher than Ball State. In fact, they have won every single one of their games by double digits.
Ball State has had a great season also, at 6-1. However their defense is kind of leaky. No team has scored less than 20 points against them. The Spartans gave up more than 21 points just once in their seven games. San Jose State will easily be the best defense that Ball State has seen (ranked 13 in FBS) and the Cardinal’s stud running back has opted out of the game. The Spartan’s D-Line is going to cause problems for Ball State and will likely be setting up shop in their backfield.
The SJSU QB has completed 65% of his passes for 1,906 yards and 16 touchdowns with four picks. He’s a good game manager that allows their defense to set them up. He’s going to look like Trevor Lawrence against the Cardinals, who are ranked 119 in pass defense giving up 296 yards per game and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans have covered in 6 of their 7 games and, with their stout defense, the threat of the back door doggy cover is a non-factor. Taking the Spartan chalk.
0
San Jose State -9.5 Ball State
Is there a better team in football than San Jose State? You may think so, but you cannot prove it. The Spartans are 7-0 this year, with double digit victories over bowl winners Hawaii and Nevada. They have already defeated 4 teams that are ranked higher than Ball State. In fact, they have won every single one of their games by double digits.
Ball State has had a great season also, at 6-1. However their defense is kind of leaky. No team has scored less than 20 points against them. The Spartans gave up more than 21 points just once in their seven games. San Jose State will easily be the best defense that Ball State has seen (ranked 13 in FBS) and the Cardinal’s stud running back has opted out of the game. The Spartan’s D-Line is going to cause problems for Ball State and will likely be setting up shop in their backfield.
The SJSU QB has completed 65% of his passes for 1,906 yards and 16 touchdowns with four picks. He’s a good game manager that allows their defense to set them up. He’s going to look like Trevor Lawrence against the Cardinals, who are ranked 119 in pass defense giving up 296 yards per game and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans have covered in 6 of their 7 games and, with their stout defense, the threat of the back door doggy cover is a non-factor. Taking the Spartan chalk.
Everyone is pulling for Cincinnati in this game, but the fact of the matter is that they are going to be running into a brick wall. Georgia is 7-2 on the season, but everyone seems to remember them for the games they lost to Alabama and Florida. If you forget about those two games, and look at their body of work in the other 7, you’d find that this Georgia team is a defensive juggernaut. In those 7 games against SEC opponents, Georgia has only given up 13 points per game. Cincinnati’s offensive output, at 39 points per game, is impressive but you have to frame it in the context of the very generous defenses in the AAC (UCF, East Carolina, Houston, SMU, etc). The two times they played against a decent defense (Tulsa and Army) they were held to 27 points or less.
The one thing Cincinnati will do is hit you. They have played great defense all season and only 2 of their 9 opponents have managed to exceed 20 points scored. JT Daniels is going to have a good day throwing the ball on the Bearcats, and it’s likely that Georgia is going to win this game – just from sheer talent alone. But don’t underestimate the effort of Cincinnati, who will likely turn in a Northwesternlike David vs. Goliath effort. It will be a hard hitting snot knocking 60 minute contest. Both defenses excel at stopping the run. Georgia allowed just 2.3 yards per rush this season, and Cincinnati allowed just 3.2 yards per rush.
The fact that the game is in Atlanta will likely make Georgia motivated to play. Cincinnati will have trouble scoring, but the Bearcat defense will be stingy also. Taking the UNDER.
1
Georgia/Cincinnati UNDER 49.5
Everyone is pulling for Cincinnati in this game, but the fact of the matter is that they are going to be running into a brick wall. Georgia is 7-2 on the season, but everyone seems to remember them for the games they lost to Alabama and Florida. If you forget about those two games, and look at their body of work in the other 7, you’d find that this Georgia team is a defensive juggernaut. In those 7 games against SEC opponents, Georgia has only given up 13 points per game. Cincinnati’s offensive output, at 39 points per game, is impressive but you have to frame it in the context of the very generous defenses in the AAC (UCF, East Carolina, Houston, SMU, etc). The two times they played against a decent defense (Tulsa and Army) they were held to 27 points or less.
The one thing Cincinnati will do is hit you. They have played great defense all season and only 2 of their 9 opponents have managed to exceed 20 points scored. JT Daniels is going to have a good day throwing the ball on the Bearcats, and it’s likely that Georgia is going to win this game – just from sheer talent alone. But don’t underestimate the effort of Cincinnati, who will likely turn in a Northwesternlike David vs. Goliath effort. It will be a hard hitting snot knocking 60 minute contest. Both defenses excel at stopping the run. Georgia allowed just 2.3 yards per rush this season, and Cincinnati allowed just 3.2 yards per rush.
The fact that the game is in Atlanta will likely make Georgia motivated to play. Cincinnati will have trouble scoring, but the Bearcat defense will be stingy also. Taking the UNDER.
I’ll keep this short because my picks suck. Auburn’s defense has given up only 24 points per game in the SEC. Northwestern held Ohio State to 22 points. Northwestern’s offense sucks. There is going to be a 15 MPH SSE wind blowing around the Citrus Bowl at game time which will limit the number of big play passes connected. This game is going to be a grind. Ball stays on the ground..tick tick tick. 3 hour game…not enough possessions..not enough points. Games goes UNDER.
0
Auburn/Northwestern UNDER 43
I’ll keep this short because my picks suck. Auburn’s defense has given up only 24 points per game in the SEC. Northwestern held Ohio State to 22 points. Northwestern’s offense sucks. There is going to be a 15 MPH SSE wind blowing around the Citrus Bowl at game time which will limit the number of big play passes connected. This game is going to be a grind. Ball stays on the ground..tick tick tick. 3 hour game…not enough possessions..not enough points. Games goes UNDER.
This is a lot of points. Alabama failed to cover this spread in 4 of their 10 games and Notre Dame will be one of the top 3 teams the Tide has faced this year. The back door will never shut in this game as Alabama defense has not shown the physicality that they have in past seasons as they have shifted their focus to the offensive side of the ball. Notre Dame averaged 35.2 points a game and 6.4 yards per snap this season. This isn’t Vanderbilt. Ian Book has tossed 15 TD’s to only 2 interceptions this season. The Tide is going to have to earn their points.
Alabama losing their captain and Center will be a drive killing factor on at least one occasion and when you’re laying this many points against this good of a team you have to be efficient on every single drive. Not a lot of margin for error. Alabama will win comfortably, but if you bet Alabama you won’t be comfortable until it’s 0:00. I am liking the points. Go Irish.
0
Notre Dame +19.5 Alabama
This is a lot of points. Alabama failed to cover this spread in 4 of their 10 games and Notre Dame will be one of the top 3 teams the Tide has faced this year. The back door will never shut in this game as Alabama defense has not shown the physicality that they have in past seasons as they have shifted their focus to the offensive side of the ball. Notre Dame averaged 35.2 points a game and 6.4 yards per snap this season. This isn’t Vanderbilt. Ian Book has tossed 15 TD’s to only 2 interceptions this season. The Tide is going to have to earn their points.
Alabama losing their captain and Center will be a drive killing factor on at least one occasion and when you’re laying this many points against this good of a team you have to be efficient on every single drive. Not a lot of margin for error. Alabama will win comfortably, but if you bet Alabama you won’t be comfortable until it’s 0:00. I am liking the points. Go Irish.
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