I AM HUGE (8-3 YTD 73%) WEEK 3 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Going to AC this weekend to play college football in the sports book on the boardwalk.....will publish picks and, of course, analysis soon.

Here are my picks for the week...I am loving the road dogs...let's see how it plays out:

byu               +10 ARKANSAS

iowa st          -2.5 OHIO

CINCINNATI  -16.5 miami oh

kansas st        -4.5  MISSOURI

san jose state  +8   TOLEDO

ulm                +32  TEXAS A&M

syracuse          +1   PURDUE

Analysis to follow...

see any that you like?  Good luck to all.

byu    +10 ARKANSAS

What do you do when you don’t drink coffee, beer or coca cola?  What do you do when you don’t have sexual relations in college?  It’s easy, you go on a mission, come back as a 25 yr old so you can load up against 18 year olds on the football field.  There’s no such need to throw shade on BYU.  They’ve been a great program for decades. So right away when you see them getting 10 points, you just have to look closely.

Woo Pig Sooey.  The hogs are loose.  In true SEC fashion, they start the season at home with two cupcake games.  Arkansas opened up with what looked like a butt kicking against FCS Western Carolina, winning 56-13.  But if you look closely at this result, poor Western Carolina had 5 turnovers to none for Arkansas and one of them was a pick 6.  The sabermetric people will tell you that a turnover is worth 5 points.  So if Western Carolina had played a clean game, then Arkansas would have won by only 18 points.  BYU beat FCS Southern Utah 41-16 as QB Slovis threw for 5 TDs.  Massey assigns a virtually identical power rating to Western Carolina and Southern Utah.  So it looks like BYU and Arkansas played comparably against these two FCS opponents. But BYU is getting 10 points in this game!  BYU is only giving up 8 points per game this season, so their defense is going to make it difficult for any opponent to cover by 10.  Those big boys on the defense for the Cougars are only yielding 2.4 yards per carry.

In their opener, BYU shutout Sam Houston St by the score of 14-0.  Who the hell is Sam Houston?  In their other game, Sam Houston hung tough with Air Force, losing only by 13-3.  So BYU did better than Air Force against Sam Houston.  In the Razorback’s other game, against the Kent State Golden Showers, they really struggled on offense winning 28-6 with one of their TD’s coming as a pick 6.  In Kent State’s other game, they lost 56-6 to UCF.  Arkansas was only able to run the ball against the Golden Shower defense for 3.8 yards per carry (compared to UCF who ran for 8.5 yards per carry against Kent).   

  So at the end of the day, Arkansas has been less than impressive offensively against poor defenses.  They are stepping up in class tremendously against a rugged BYU front 7 who will whack KJ Jefferson if he tucks it away.  The points will come slowly for Arkansas and they have to win by 10.  That’s too tall a task against a quality undefeated team with a tough defense and a dangerous quarterback looking to make a statement…. while Arkansas is  looking ahead to their first SEC tilt next week against LSU.  Give me the points and the Cougs.

Iowa state -2.5 OHIO

Guess what.  Last week, the Cyclones lost a low scoring game to Iowa in the annual Cyhawk rivalry.  What else is new?  The Hawkeyes, who lost 10-7 to the Cyclones in Iowa City last year, have won seven of the last eight meetings and lead the series 47-23.  The stat box tells a different story.  Iowa State had 290 yards and 19 first downs to Iowa’s 235 yards and 9 first downs.  The difference in the game turned out to be a pick 6 by Iowa.  So if Iowa was playing the Ohio Bobcats, would you be willing to lay 2.5 points?  Of course you would.  Ohio lost by 7 points to San Diego State, a team much lower ranked than Iowa State. Ohio only beat Long Island by 17…the same Long Island team that lost by 10 to Bryant (Bryant lost by 30 to UNLV). So if Ohio and Bryant are about the same, Ohio is 20 points worse than UNLV.  Iowa State is light years better than UNLV.  Or look at it this way.  Ohio beat Long Island by 17.  Iowa State beat Northen Iowa by 21.  Massey has Long Island ranked 326, whereas Northern Iowa is ranked 137.

The Bobcats star player, QB Kurtis Rourke who was MAC player of the year, is gimped up and played terribly last week against FAU 18 for 29 with 2 interceptions.  He was concussed in the game against the Aztecs and he still might be all scrambled eggs for all we know.  The Cyclones biggest problem is that Arnold the Paperboy visited them from the Flinstones.  Bet Bet Bet Bet Bet Bet Bet.  A bunch of players go suspended but they have coalesced and are now going with what they have and the players seem to already have assimilated.

This is going to be a very low scoring game.  Ohio is averaging only 19 points per game against the likes of Long Island, San Diego State and FAU.  There is no scenario where Ohio scores more than 17 points (over under is 45).   Iowa State will only need 20 points to cover.  They will get there.  This is a game that Iowa State can’t lose if anyone in the Big 12 wants to take them seriously.  They are just better.  There are going to be a lot of Cyclone fans at the game.  If Iowa State loses, their season is toast.  Iowa State’s defense is very very good and their secondary is especially good at picking off passes.    The Iowa State mascot still looks stupid.  It’s a cross between a bird and a tornado.  Weird.  Either way, I’m going with the road favorite Cyclones.

CINCINNATI  -16.5 miami oh

The Bearcats are ranked 24.   The Redhawks are ranked 105.   Cincinnati is home.  Right there you must be thinking…hmm….Cinci is much better, but that spread concerns me.  So let’s break it down, shall we?

The Redhawks lost to the other Miami team by the score of 38-3.  Miami is ranked 34.  They are ranked lower than the Bearcats yet they beat Miami OH by 35 points.  In that game, the Redhawks only had 51 yards rushing on 25 carries…that’s 2.0 yards per carry.  That’s not good.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose…that’s what happens.  Get this, the mighty Pitt Panthers only ran the ball for 83 yards on 29 attempts vs. Cincinnati…that’s a 2.9 yards per carry.  What this means is that Miami OH will not be able to run the ball on the road against Cincinnati.   So maybe Miami thinks that they can throw?  Pitt was 10 for 32 throwing the ball last week against the ‘Cats.  Good luck Redhawks.

According to Sagarin, if Miami OH played Eastern Kentucky, they would win by 10 points.  Cincinnati beat Eastern Kentucky by 53 points.   Based on this data, it looks like the Bearcats are 43 points better than the Redhawks.   Believe what you see…don’t believe what you think you know.  This is what we see in 2023.

The Bearcats are tough at home.  How tough?  They are 26-1 at home since 2019.  Bearcat QB Emory Jones has 470 passing yards (235.0 per game) and a 75.5% completion percentage (37-for-49), pitching seven touchdown passes and one interception.  They are going to bring a lot of offense against a team that let up 28 points to UMASS.  There is no scenario where the Bearcats do not score at least 35 points.  There is no scenario where Miami scores more than 14.  It’s an easy cover for the home favorite Mike Bearcats.

100% with you on Cincinatti.

Miami (OH) is horrid.

@race444

 Yup. Bearcats are legit.  They are gonna boat race them.  

nice writeups  

stay hot

kansas st        -4.5  MISSOURI

How soon we forget.  Who’s the reining Big 12 champ?  Guess again, it’s not TCU.   While everyone is blowing  Texas and Oklahoma, K State is sitting there saying “what are we, wood?”.    Meanwhile, the SEC is all faceful – licking their wounds after a less than impressive opening weekends in Fansville.  Let’s look at the math for this game.  In the Massey Composite, Kansas State is ranked 13 while Mizzou is ranked 49.  Ordinarily, that differential would generate a 9 point spread, so clearly K State is getting disrespected.

K State is 2-0 and averaging 44 points per game and their defense is only giving up 6 points per game.  They clearly have enough offensive firepower and defensive ferocity to cover this spread.  They dismantled a decent Troy squad, 42-13 with experienced QB Will Howard having a great day passing and their run defense holding Troy to only 2.5 yards per carry.    This is the same Troy team that put up 48 points in week 1 – running for 342 yards and 8.1 yards per carry.   In the Wildcats 45-0 whitewashing of SE Missouri, their defense only gave up 6 yards rushing for a 0.2 yards per carry.   This is the same SE Missouri team that rushed  for  221 yards and 5.7 yards per carry last week.  Yup..the Wildcats have a legit defense.  K State has basically annihilated the FCS Ohio Valley Champions and FBS Sun Belt Champions so far this season.

What about Mizzou?  Coach Drinkpiss says that the Tigers need to focus on execution.  Well, the way they played against MTSU last week – they should all be executed.  Missouri barely escaped with a 23-19 win, and that was no fluke.  MTSU had 285 yards to Missouri’s 316 yards.  It was an evenly matched game with no turnovers by either team.  Basically, Mizzou did nothing to show they were any better than Middle Tennessee.   This is the same Middle Tennessee team that lost 56-7 to Alabama in week 1.   So clearly, Alabama is A LOT better than Missouri.  Texas was better than Alabama.  Is Texas better than K State?  I’m not sure.

Last year, K State made Missouri QB Brady Cook their prison bitch in a 40-12 beatdown.   Based on what he showed vs. MTSU last week, it’s likely we’ll see more of the same at noon on Saturday against the Cats.  Kansas State is superior at both the coaching and QB positions which will neutralize any home field advantage in Columbia.  Mizzou is 0-2 against the spread.  They are being propped up by their SEC status, which just isn’t that meaningful.  There is a lot of value in this line.  K State is the Rodney Dangerfield of college football, getting no respect from the public.  Want to make money?  Bet on K State, they are KSU 20-9 ATS in last 3 years.  QB Will Howard is very consistent and the Wildcats can rely on their defense.  Mizzou does have a good defense…not gonna lie.  But, Missouri’s offense just can’t get it together and when they get behind early, they won’t be able to take control of the game because they won’t be able to run the ball.  Laying the wood on the Wildcats.

 Good luck huge

san jose state  +8   TOLEDO

Holy Toledo!  Toledo is 1-1 on the season.  Their big win was against Texas Southern.  Doesn’t count.  What happened to the Rockets when they squared up with a real team?  They lost to Illinois.  The same Illinois team that got bitch slapped by Kansas on national TV.  Yes, they did beat Texas Southern 71-3 but San Jose State beat up on their FCS team also, Cal Poly, by the score of 59-3.  Cal Poly is ranked much higher than Texas Southern.  So if you square of the math, Toledo MIGHT be better than San Jose State, but the 8.5 points is very very generous.They are averaging 35 points per game. 

The San Jose State Spartans have a live offense with a crazy elusive QB who always seems to squirm out of trouble.    QB CHEVAN CORDEIRO knows how to extend plays and be creative to move the chains with his feet or with his scrambling short passes.  He gave USC all kinds of headaches, passing for 198 yards on 21 of 38 accuracy.  He also ran for 52 yards on the ground and overall, San Jose State averaged an astonishing 7.3 yards per carry against the mighty Trojans.  Against Cal Poly, the Spartans ran for 267 yards on 43 carries for a  6.2              yds per carry and 5 tuddies. San Jose State scored on its first eight possessions over Cal Poly then they decided to take a break and get ice cream.  The Spartans got off to a quick start as they scored 38 points in the first half.

San Jose State has had the much tougher schedule, facing the 10 ranked and 16 ranked teams in USC and Oregon State.  Toledo will seem like a breath of fresh air.          Corderio’s roommate is an explosive pass catcher and despite Cordeiro’s scrambling and swashbuckling nature, he has yet to throw a pick. 

There isn’t a lot to go on here and Toledo might actually be the better team but I believe that 8.5 points is too tall a mountain to climb, particulary if Cordeiro – the Energizer Buddy – has the ball last at the end of the game.  Taking the points and the Spartan dogs.

Wow, thanks for all the time you put into this thread with the writeups.  Best of luck to you.

Love the write ups. Thank you

ulm  +32  TEXAS A&M

I am sure everyone saw this pick and figured that iamhuge is on crack.  Well, there are a few observations that make me like this pick.  First of all, Jimbo Fisher is not a good coach.  He may have been at one time, but he’s not right now.  This is a “get well” game for the Aggies after doing the walk of shame last week against Miami.  Texas A&M doesn’t play well in “get well” games.  Last year after the horrid 6 game losing streak in the SEC, they had their “get well” game against UMASS and only won 20-3.  I don’t think A&M coaches are preparing this team well, and they haven’t had a good game in a long time. 

Don’t get me wrong, I am far from a Lousiana – Monroe fan.  This team stinks….correction, their offense stinks.  I watched most of their game against Army and their front 7 is pretty tough.  They play with conviction and aggressiveness and swagger.  The Warhawks have limited their opponents to 13.5 PPG.  They held the Black Knights to only 3.4 yards per carry.  That’s probably about as bad as Army has been running the ball (the next week they ran for 6.7 yards per carry).  I actually think the Warhawks are very good against stopping the run and the Aggies are going to have problems controlling the game if they are behind the chains a lot.

Texas A&M was not able to establish the run against New Mexico (only 134 yards on the ground) and, according the Massey ratings, New Mexico is not as good as ULM.  Against Miami, the Aggies could only net 97 yards on the ground for a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. 

If Texas A&M gives up 10 points to ULM, they are going to have to find a way to score 43 points against this tough defense to cover.  Petrino is trying to get this offense to play fast and all they seem to be doing is making penalties.  ULM isn’t going to throw the ball.  They like to run.  They run the ball almost 70% of their plays, and why shouldn’t they?  The Warhawk ground game has racked up 492 rushing yards on  72 carries so far—that’s 6.83 yards a pop.  Both of their QB’s are the dual threat variety and are good at getting cheap first downs.    Of course, Texas A&M’s defense is going to be a lot stiffer against the run but assuming they have a 2 touchdown lead in this game, it’s likely they will play back to secure the win and let ULM grind out yardage and make it a short game…the bend but don’t break defense that allows 5 minute drives.  If the clock is always running, it’s going to be tough to cover 32 points.  The Aggies will complete passes and make some big plays for touchdowns, but a blitzing and gambling Warhawk defense will also get home and force a few punts.  A&M wideout Michah Tease has been suspended for this game.

I’m smelling a 31-10 type of game, which isn’t enough to cover this big spread.  Going with the Warhawks on the road and ALL of those 32 points!

Well done thanks. 

Good luck on the week 3 picks 

I'm surprised Navy showed up tonight

@iamhuge

 Nice work, man.  .   Especially the KSU/MU write-up (I'm not biased, though).

Syracuse +1 PURDUE

The computers have this line just about right, so you have to pull up the covers to determine which team is going to play better this week.  Syracuse is 2-0 with an average victory margin of 56-3.  So what tells you is that when they play against weak teams, they can score a lot of points and that their defense is good at keeping other teams from scoring.   They held Colgate to 106 yards of offense.  Talk about squeezing the toothpaste tube.  Against Western Michigan, the stats were a little tighter but the Orange still had almost 500 yards of offense.  The key to this game is that Syracuse was winning 45-7 at halftime and essentially packed it in for the second half.

Purdue is a good team also, and they are home.  Purdue lost in a back and forth game to Fresno State 39-35.  However the loss looks less impressive when you realize that Fresno barely beat FCS school Eastern Washington 34-31.  In their other game, the Boilermakers won at Virginia Tech 24-17 but that close victory was bolstered by two untimely interceptions thrown by the Hokies.   This game could have gone either way, but the Boilermaker defense saved the day.

Purdue’s offense seems out of sync with Hudson Card at QB.  They sorely miss last year’s all world QB Aiden O’Connell who is now in the NFL.  On the other sideline Syracuse has an incredibly talented Garrett Schrader under center, who has a lot to prove after suffering a season ending injury last year.  This kid is really really good.  Syracuse has shown that they can score easily whereas Purdue does not have that luxury and will have to grind out their points.   Syracuse is going to move the ball through the air.  Purdue is tough against the run, but Syracuse won’t care as they definitely will find success passing the ball.  The road test will be tough, but I’m going with the superior offense.  Go Orange. 

@iamhuge

The Army win over UTSA makes my ULM pick look more attractive.   We shall see.  

Iowa St is horrible .. man they are tough watch!

Yup Iowa State sucks

Iowa state farts dust on offense.  0-1 on the week.