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links....betting talk....week 1

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

 

Florida?.....a BIASED view here maybe......YES I'm aware Harbaugh and DC Brown do a tremendous job....BUT
  *LOOK.....at Michigans schedule LY......annihillated the bad teams sure....when playing somebody that could fog up a mirror....not that impressive IMO...... now most of that team?.....is gone

Could be wrong.....but I just don't see how Michigan is favored here at all......odds-makers required here to make too big of an  adjustment I reckon.....thinking it's bet down to pick 'em at some point ?????
       **  also like the (recent) memory of a 41-7 Citrus Bowl beatdown in 2015
  NOTE:  'revenge'.....is taken to mean : man Florida is gonna be ANGRY !....PAYBACK TIME !......
    *  .nope just a (usually small) edge in preparation as Michigan maybe takes them a bit lighter than they might otherwise (SEC is overrated stuff)......Gators (otherwise cocky as helll)...now humbled a bit > maybe work harder / now aware that the 'inferior' B10 is capable of beating their azz......
 


First of all I am a Michigan fan. This has made me biased to the point that I usually underestimate UM more than I overestimate.
Now, about that not impressive to those who can "fog up a mirror".
1. Penn State, big ten champion, beat Ohio State, beat Wisconsin, gave USC one hell of a game. Penn State's offense averaged 433 yds/game, against UM 191 total yards. Final score 49-10 and yes PSU had no linebackers in that game, but no offense too! Why?
2. Wisconsin, Big Ten runner up, took Ohio State to two OT's. Wisky avg'd 362 yds/gm and had a total of 159 against UM. The game was a total mismatch other than the 14-7 final score.
After Speight got hurt against Iowa the offense, which had a season low against Colorado of 397 total yds up to that point, finished with totals of 201, 284, (310, 2OT's) and 252 against Florida St in the bowl game. Michigan's loses were 1,3, and 1 point loses. Florida's loses were ALL double-digit loses.

But like you said, that team is mostly gone, as is eight starters on Florida's defense and their DC has left. Michigan has now an experienced QB, Florida, even with Zaire, has no starting experience at Florida. That is why I believe the spread is UM -4.

I'm not betting this one because as I said, I have a bias here. Thinking it goes either way.

GL
 
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Posted: #27
Florida QB Feleipe Franks. That's the big question. What is he going to do in his first big game?  He is going to fumble the ball away, interception after a good drive?  Lots of question marks here.  They need to keep it simple and get him some confidence... I think we might see a couple QB's on the Florida side...Florida defense plays hard and aggressive...Florida's defense needs to get a couple turnovers and points of those.... 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:


First of all I am a Michigan fan. This has made me biased to the point that I usually underestimate UM more than I overestimate.
Now, about that not impressive to those who can "fog up a mirror".
1. Penn State, big ten champion, beat Ohio State, beat Wisconsin, gave USC one hell of a game. Penn State's offense averaged 433 yds/game, against UM 191 total yards. Final score 49-10 and yes PSU had no linebackers in that game, but no offense too! Why?
2. Wisconsin, Big Ten runner up, took Ohio State to two OT's. Wisky avg'd 362 yds/gm and had a total of 159 against UM. The game was a total mismatch other than the 14-7 final score.
After Speight got hurt against Iowa the offense, which had a season low against Colorado of 397 total yds up to that point, finished with totals of 201, 284, (310, 2OT's) and 252 against Florida St in the bowl game. Michigan's loses were 1,3, and 1 point loses. Florida's loses were ALL double-digit loses.

But like you said, that team is mostly gone, as is eight starters on Florida's defense and their DC has left. Michigan has now an experienced QB, Florida, even with Zaire, has no starting experience at Florida. That is why I believe the spread is UM -4.

I'm not betting this one because as I said, I have a bias here. Thinking it goes either way.

GL


an exaggeration of course 1st of all.......

The question is....how good was a given team WHEN YOU PLAYED THEM......and what type of SPOT were they in vs the one YOU were in............
  *regarding Michigan as an ELITE team > scrutiny resulting
  

5 home games to start

*terrible Hawaii off Australian road
*weak then UCF + QB hurt 2Q or so
*scrappy Col / QB out early 3Q > might have been tight...?
*Penn St....just struggled with Kent St + lost to Pitt + massive injuries on D right?.....about 10 points or more  worse THEN
Wisky?....Fr QB making 2nd start or so?....tough team sure but also almost lost to Ga St at home...elite team?

THEN....looked like crap vs 3-9 /Sparty (-25)  and mighty Indiana (-24).....lost to the 2 good teams you played  .....beat up the bad ones.....lost to the Criminoles in the bowl as 7 pt fav

GLORIOUS to Michigan fans.....to me not so great.....esp considering all the great players they had .................
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by SharpShooter8:

Just amazing BA.   Looking forward to .

Glad you are here to assist us.  Enjoy your summer.


good man SS......BOL this year..................
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Posted: #30
Very impressive... I think it's important to keep Bowl results/Spring practice into perspective.  For example, I dont think people should even consider the results of a game like Oklahoma State/Colorado, but where I think bowl games are helpful is for young teams that are right around the 6-7 win mark... The team that comes to mind right now is South Carolina, this was a team that should have benefited from having 20 extra bowl practices.

South Carolina was an unbelievably young football team, who looked a lot different, starting week 7 when Muschamp decided to pull the redshirt and started Freshman QB Jake Bentley. Bentley was supposed to be part of the 2018 recruiting class, but he decided to skip his senior season of highschool, and join the Gamecocks as a Redshirt freshman instead. This move ultimately changed everything, but because he wasnt even a True Freshman, he wasnt getting many practice reps because he wasnt supposed to play.  Not only did they switch QB's, but the team also made the switch to Rico Dowdle a true Freshman RB during week 7.  Aside from these two major changes, the depth chart was filled with underclassman, and JUCO transfers. Their best two WR's were sophmore Deebo Samuel (who missed the first 5 games w/ Hamstring issues, and Bryan Edwards another true freshman.  Their star TE Hayden Hunt was also a freshman, and their Oline was dealing with injuries, which forced them to lean on backups and underclassman. 

Once South Carolina made the switch to their Freshman, they went on a 4-1 winning streak, with a 20-7 loss @ Florida. They beat UMass, Tennessee, Missouri, and Western Carolina.  They lost badly to a rolling Clemson team in the final week of the season, but the team looked much better during their Bowl game where they lost to South Florida 46-39 in OT...

Once Jake Bentley and Dowdle became starters at the midseason point in 2016, they had 18 total practices the rest of the regular season. They had 16 bowl practices and 15 spring workouts.

“That’s why you’ll see a major improvement in our offense,” Bentley said. With 10 returning starters, a talented addition to the backfield and a new blocking scheme, Bentley thinks that number will go up.

“We’re going to be better on the offensive line,” 

 
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Posted: #31
Mr. Book,

Thank you so much for printing all these links. Got wise a few years ago, printed them out, and started sifting, a treasure trove of knowledge

Couple of points:

You cannot bet money that you can't lose financially or emotionally

What I mean by that is, you can't go into betting thinking "I need this win for some new shoes.......car payment........rent".............that is just asking for it. The money you must be money that you can afford to lose, and not some that deprives you or your family. 

The emotional part is one you've hear before: DISCIPLINE. You gotta have it. You win 5 in a row, you think "I've got this wired" and bet 10x your normal size...........................lose..........................and NOW THE CHASE IS ON!

Uh, no. You've got X amount of dollars to wager, and your unit size can only increase by winning. And, DO USE UNITS, not some random "I'm betting 5k"  b*llshit. 

Other point: INJURIES

I cannot remember the year, but I remember an article "How to Read Your Steele", and I'm like "what? You just read it"

Your Steele mag is a great way to keep track of injuries
I'll draw a red line with a marker through somebody done for the year, or will be injured for more than half the season. Rare they get their jobs back when healthy again. Lesser injuries, a yellow highlighter. You've got the entire roster there, including backups, how they were ranked, and maybe some stats if they were down on the depth chart. Keeping track of injuries really makes a difference. You'll note Mr. Bookie devoted its own category for it...............THERE'S A REASON I use DonBest, and start tracking that on Sunday morning, after checking late Pac-12 scores. Check again on Tuesday, when most coaches have to talk/reveal.

Book, thanks again for the list, and dudes & dudettes: print'em out, find 'em out, and bet 'em out..............

Hawk out..........
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



an exaggeration of course 1st of all.......

The question is....how good was a given team WHEN YOU PLAYED THEM......and what type of SPOT were they in vs the one YOU were in............
  *regarding Michigan as an ELITE team > scrutiny resulting
  

5 home games to start

*terrible Hawaii off Australian road
*weak then UCF + QB hurt 2Q or so
*scrappy Col / QB out early 3Q > might have been tight...?
*Penn St....just struggled with Kent St + lost to Pitt + massive injuries on D right?.....about 10 points or more  worse THEN
Wisky?....Fr QB making 2nd start or so?....tough team sure but also almost lost to Ga St at home...elite team?

THEN....looked like crap vs 3-9 /Sparty (-25)  and mighty Indiana (-24).....lost to the 2 good teams you played  .....beat up the bad ones.....lost to the Criminoles in the bowl as 7 pt fav

GLORIOUS to Michigan fans.....to me not so great.....esp considering all the great players they had .................

Maybe we have different definition for mirror fogging teams??

ELITE team????? Who said ELITE team??? Not sure what your definition is for a "team that fogs up a mirror", but for me, NOT an ELITE team, a decent, competitive team it seems. You say on one hand, Wisc, had second start QB but do not take into account Mich. at Ind. started O'Korn for the first time at UM. Mich had 50 rush attempts vs 16 passes against Indy, Ohio State had 50 rush attempts vs 21 passes against Indy with Barrett. Niether OSU or UM had over 100 yds passing against Indy and neither covered their spread. Maybe Indy not so bad against decent, competitive teams?
Sparty had Ohio State beat with a 2pt conversion, is Ohio State an ELITE team? (Not in my mind after Clemson game)

NO BIG 10 TEAM AN ELITE TEAM IN 2016.

Sparty scored late to make it close against UM, then try to rub it in with 2pt try that backfired, outcome never in doubt.

To me, Michigan not GLORIOUS team, back to being respectable, competitive team. Team that wins conference and at least plays for NC is GLORIOUS, ELITE team, nothing short. (Ohio State in 2014 an ELITE team)

Really see Michigan and Florida in same boat, rebuilding D's, some offensive pieces. UM returning QB, Gators returning WR's. Both teams last year lose games AWAY from home, UM by 1 &3 pts, Gators by double digit. Both teams decent, competitive teams.


I respect your opinion BA and your posts are the best here at Covers, no doubt. But sometimes I respectfully disagree, so who am I? ...............Just another opinion.

GL



 
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Posted: #33
My only issue with Florida in this spot is ol' Jimmy beavermouth just got an extension (complacency). He is 4-10 versus teams in the top 25, and you don't need a phil steele magazine to tell you Michigan's attention to detail is far superior to anything in the fl coaching staff. Not to mention there are 3 potential qbs, and he will probably start with del rio, the worst option. I would consider FL 2nd half as a bet.
 
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Posted: #34
One of the best   
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:


Maybe we have different definition for mirror fogging teams??

ELITE team????? Who said ELITE team??? Not sure what your definition is for a "team that fogs up a mirror", but for me, NOT an ELITE team, a decent, competitive team it seems. You say on one hand, Wisc, had second start QB but do not take into account Mich. at Ind. started O'Korn for the first time at UM. Mich had 50 rush attempts vs 16 passes against Indy, Ohio State had 50 rush attempts vs 21 passes against Indy with Barrett. Niether OSU or UM had over 100 yds passing against Indy and neither covered their spread. Maybe Indy not so bad against decent, competitive teams?
Sparty had Ohio State beat with a 2pt conversion, is Ohio State an ELITE team? (Not in my mind after Clemson game)

NO BIG 10 TEAM AN ELITE TEAM IN 2016.

Sparty scored late to make it close against UM, then try to rub it in with 2pt try that backfired, outcome never in doubt.

To me, Michigan not GLORIOUS team, back to being respectable, competitive team. Team that wins conference and at least plays for NC is GLORIOUS, ELITE team, nothing short. (Ohio State in 2014 an ELITE team)

Really see Michigan and Florida in same boat, rebuilding D's, some offensive pieces. UM returning QB, Gators returning WR's. Both teams last year lose games AWAY from home, UM by 1 &3 pts, Gators by double digit. Both teams decent, competitive teams.


I respect your opinion BA and your posts are the best here at Covers, no doubt. But sometimes I respectfully disagree, so who am I? ...............Just another opinion.

GL





ONLY question is.....are they (and opponents)  AS GOOD as odds-makers believe  ?.............to me it's a big NO...
     *.I'm not attacking your team / admitted I might be missing something.....always have liked Michigan.... only issue ?.....my old man and BO were friends.....Bo a big believer in running 10 X 100 yd sprints AFTER each practice... WTF.......my old man soon did this as well .....I've hated BOTH of 'em ever since............
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

Mr. Book,

Thank you so much for printing all these links. Got wise a few years ago, printed them out, and started sifting, a treasure trove of knowledge

Couple of points:

You cannot bet money that you can't lose financially or emotionally

What I mean by that is, you can't go into betting thinking "I need this win for some new shoes.......car payment........rent".............that is just asking for it. The money you must be money that you can afford to lose, and not some that deprives you or your family. 

The emotional part is one you've hear before: DISCIPLINE. You gotta have it. You win 5 in a row, you think "I've got this wired" and bet 10x your normal size...........................lose..........................and NOW THE CHASE IS ON!

Uh, no. You've got X amount of dollars to wager, and your unit size can only increase by winning. And, DO USE UNITS, not some random "I'm betting 5k"  b*llshit. 

Other point: INJURIES

I cannot remember the year, but I remember an article "How to Read Your Steele", and I'm like "what? You just read it"

Your Steele mag is a great way to keep track of injuries
I'll draw a red line with a marker through somebody done for the year, or will be injured for more than half the season. Rare they get their jobs back when healthy again. Lesser injuries, a yellow highlighter. You've got the entire roster there, including backups, how they were ranked, and maybe some stats if they were down on the depth chart. Keeping track of injuries really makes a difference. You'll note Mr. Bookie devoted its own category for it...............THERE'S A REASON I use DonBest, and start tracking that on Sunday morning, after checking late Pac-12 scores. Check again on Tuesday, when most coaches have to talk/reveal.

Book, thanks again for the list, and dudes & dudettes: print'em out, find 'em out, and bet 'em out..............

Hawk out..........


Good stuff Hawk....thanks for stopping by...............


"A man's gotta know his limitations"...........................
 
A big thing for me.....say 3-4 years ago....(only took me till my early 50's) >  holy crap.......was to admit to myself.....that I was an IDIOT
  *in an absolute sense that is..........................................


  
To realize my WEAKNESSES .....some you mentioned
  *seeing things that just weren't there........betting on the 'due theory'............team A simply just CAN'T LOSE this one!.....wild azz drunken half-time bets.......".my capping is so good > I really don't need to manage my money / keep records"....................any biases > I can overcome no problem!.........."I don't have to work that hard to win money......after all I did it before !!!!......etc.........

You know......the stuff we see here......constantly
  *problem?.....by the time you figure out a few things.....you're so old and crazy nobody wants to listen to you................
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Posted: #37
BTW......that's probably STEP 1.....on the road to becoming SMART

Taking a HARD LOOK.....at yourself in the mirror....
     *  'hard'...because that mirror will LIE to you

AX yourself.....am I really doing my best / making smart decisions?

OR.....am I half-azzing pretty much EVERYTHING I do..... somehow expecting WILD success....yet confused when things don't go well / I fail......> every single person I know pretty much....100% when it comes to betting CFB / NFL 

eg.    little or no breakfast > small lunch > BIG azz dinner
    *plus....a LIFETIME of eating for PLEASURE only....NEVER considering food as fuel for your body......and sitting on your azz all day....little / no exercise......" I feel bad and can't believe It!".....gimme some pills quick.............
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Posted: #38
BWS77......enjoy your work........BOL man...........


firesox.....everybody in America loves Michigan (good guys) to kick Fla's (bad guys) azz... under the radar Gators getting points?...seems like a good deal to me...............BOL this year....
 

alopez14325......fine work AL........SC was one of my top bowl picks (closer than I expected tho ha)....probably should be on them vs NCSU before that one drops too............

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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

BA,  With you on B.C., S.M.U., and Colo. St. +8.  
I think Kansas-22 and Mizz.-21.5 are solid plays.  Both improved playing against bottom feeders in their respective conferences.

Like everyone, I enjoy your post.

Stay Hard,   Doc





BEWARE of SEMO..................
  *somehow....they stay in these games.....5-0 ATS.....lost 17-10 to Jax St LY as well......(KSt...Mizzou...KU...Ole Miss.....CMich)

But only 5/4 st back from 3-8....QB + 2/5 OL.....lose all-conf RB + great P.....and K

Need to check into it more...instincts are that KU beats the hell outta 'em.....'only' CM on deck

Like Mizzou too......as Mizzou St doesn't seem to worry about these very much.......2-4 ATS run.....35-0 to Kan St (called early)....63-7.to Memphis.....70-7 to Ark St
  * no doubt saving a bit for rugged Mizzou Valley slate

Plus Mizzou (Pinkel) has enjoyed slaughtering FCS teams....Odom carrying on tradition LY > 79-0 vs Del St.....61-21 vs E Mich
  *but at S Caro next

Both seem like nice value too......as oddsmakers maybe will need some time to catch up with both teams.... 

Whaddya think about other FCS  bullies :
  *Southwest Texas St ha (outscored FCS 156-27 last few)...and New Mexico ??
     Air Force maybe....


My criteria?....
  *  IF......Attila.....and maybe Vlad the Impaler.....were to place a wager on a massacre.....who would they bet on?............. 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by DevinnE:

Florida QB Feleipe Franks. That's the big question. What is he going to do in his first big game?  He is going to fumble the ball away, interception after a good drive?  Lots of question marks here.  They need to keep it simple and get him some confidence... I think we might see a couple QB's on the Florida side...Florida defense plays hard and aggressive...Florida's defense needs to get a couple turnovers and points of those.... 


brings up a (maybe) even BETTER play......UNDER.....1H maybe 6-3 ha......'nuther reason to take the points............. 
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Posted: #41
Tip: I have some pending parlays right now, with early football lines....You cannot find those great lines now....So, look for those early lines for the picking as we get to the season and when they come out each week..... 
Devinne
 
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Posted: #42
I actually already have a handful of week 1 games broken down, lmk know if anybody wants to read them. I was going to post them, but they're incredibly detailed and they take like 20+ hrs for each game. Unfortunately 90% of this board contributes absolutely nothing of value...
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

I actually already have a handful of week 1 games broken down, lmk know if anybody wants to read them. I was going to post them, but they're incredibly detailed and they take like 20+ hrs for each game. Unfortunately 90% of this board contributes absolutely nothing of value...

ALopez - I have my final 3.  I would like to get your feedback, and offer my perspective on yours.  I will send you a private message.  LJJ
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Posted: #44
Yea definitely, I think I have 5 finished write ups. and another 5 started... I dont plan on betting them all, but i've been digging through depth charts, returning starters, and a ton of player and team stats... Unfortunately I dont know if there's much value until I do the research... There are a couple of mismatches in week 1 that could lead to some blowouts.  

On paper, it seems like NC State's front 7 is going to have their way with the South Carolina OLine.  NC State is returning their entire unit (A front 7 I have ranked 4th in the country behind only Clemson, FSU, and Ohio St)  The NCST defense finished 5th in the country in rush defense, #19 in Sacks, and 14th in TFL, They only allowed 3.3 Yards per carry.

South Carolina's Oline is returning 4 of 5 starters, replacing their LT.  The scary thing is this was a terrible OLine last year.  South Carolina ranked 108th/128 in Rushing offense, and only averaged 2.8 YPC against South Florida in their bowl game, and 3.6YPC on the season...  South Carolina ranked 123rd/128 in Tackles For Loss Allowed, this OLine allowed 7.8 TFL per game.  They also finished 118/128 in Sacks Allowed, with 3.15 sacks allowed per game.  This doesnt include all of the plays where Bentely was running for his life... 

I like South Carolina a lot, but it could be a very long day for Bentley if the Oline doesnt show significant improvement, because there's no doubt Bradley Chubb, BJ Hill, Justin Jones, Darren Roseboro, Kentavious Smart, Jerod Fernandez, and Airius Moore will be fired up for their home opener... They have 6 returning players with at least 5 sacks...
 
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Posted: #45
Mr. 14325, DO POST THEM! That's what we're here for! If you have a lean, angle, stats, local knowledge, whatever, bring it!

Long writeups? You've never heard of Scalabrine?

This is not a problem. JUST ONE AT A TIME. Hopefully, in their own thread.

Some will say yay, some will say nay. Be prepared either way
 
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Posted: #46
BA,   Are we talking about that bunch down in San Marcos?  That was Southwest Tex.St. Teachers College in my day. They've been trimming that long name down every since. (They do have one U. S.president that got his degree there! )

Yeh, you would think they could handle Houston Bapt.  How bad is Tx. ST.?  They do get Monroe and N. Mx. ST. at home but I think 2 wins at most for the Bobcats.

I like the Air Force pick the most by far of those 3 teams.  I've had that one underlined since the lines came out. Air Force and N. MX. pretty close in ability going into the season. N. Mx. probably better. Both playing weak teams but Air Force giving a TD less on the spread. Long trip at altitude for VMI. and Air Force rest next week before Mich. game.  By the way, Air Force only beat N. Mx. opp. - Abilene Christ. by 16 in season opener last year. Did I mention the option offense that Air Force can run in their sleep and probably do. They play a little dirty, too.  Chop-Chop.

Looks like a easy year for SHSU.  I hope they get some strong competition but expect them to cover most games by 4 TD's or so. Makes it hard to have a solid confident play-off run when you skate through conference then have to play real teams all of a sudden.

Big 12 looks like a meat grinder this year.  Have you had a chance to get a handle on them?

I'm still "BTC"ing it.   (Baboon tossing Crap)     Doc


 
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Posted: #47
Playbook just came in, we are getting close.

Bookie
buy $BTC
 
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Posted: #48
Great words BA, not just the football talk either.

Everything matters when it comes to success.


Best of Luck this season
 
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Posted: #49
BA,    I ignored the web yesterday and this morning.  I'm trying to get my golf game decent.  And I wanted a break.  My golf game didn't do well. I had no solid.

I was surprised to see Air Force -31 today. Shocked!   I'm fine  @Air Force -22.5.  and glad I got it. Probably just play the 1 unit and not add at that at that price. All my plays are up 1 or 2 pts. but very curious  with 2 months to go?   Not looking to buy out on any.

I did play Tx. +1 @ Baylor on the GOY today.  My best thought is that Baylor has had major attrition and limited good recruiting.  Tx. is deeper and wins this.  Big 12 is tough this year but I think Tx. gets it done.

Stay Hard,    Doc




 
 
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Posted: #50
Bookmaker openers opened a few things up.............


added ................


ONE UNIT

Col St  +8'
BYU  -2'
GATORS +4
------------------
Rutgers +31'



smaller

Oreg St  +3
SMU  -24
UNLV  -37
----------------
Georgia  -13'
Irish -9 / LSU -6


Rutgers will  likely stink AGAIN.....but IMO.....terrible value with UW laying 31 on this LONG road trip......Huskies (really) didn't move the chains well LY.....only 3.0/rush....17 FD...3/12 3rd down.....scored on big plays / 2 ST TD's


Georgia maybe shaky with Irish on deck..... (hence small play)....but I don't see how App St moves the ball here....and how they stop Ga running game for 4 Qtrs
  *note :  (maybe) poor value too....simply based on LY / past performances....10 > 12'....arguably a fair line.   

Ditto with LSU /  Irish.........
  *kinda cheezy....like the Irish but MISSED the < 14......so looking for an excuse.... to play them maybe ha
  *But....IMO....a TALL ORDER.....for BYU to stay with a TD of LSU here....they travel well....but Tigers should have a nice HF edge...............  

 
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