Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
got a bunch of 'em............
got too much work to do now...I'll write something up in a few days
EARLY in the year....is much tougher.....later (when tendencies established)....much easier
week 1....basically looking for better value...on teams I like (maybe missed a favorable line)....
*let's say I REALLY like Texas getting 7 or more....IF ND scores 1st.....you probably will get it (in-game of course)....sometimes shocking what you can get
*OR.....let's say I REALLY think the Irish will WIN the game....Horns might get up EARLY (I actually think they will).....NOW......consider the Irish....at + odds
$$ I did this (big) on Bama 4Q vs Clemson.....as I was SURE (ha)....that Bama would win the game....waited for a Clemson score.....THEN hit at +100 or so
OR......I have a few games where I think a team might start slow......but I am convinced they will eventually take control
Penn St....new O could easily struggle early.. vs a decent D
N Dame....I think they figure it out at some point (Horns are very adept at LOSING games > winning / closing games out? > doubt it)
UCF !!!!!!!!!!....if 2H is available
LSU !!!!.......ain't laying the 10.....will lay a smaller number 2H for damm sure
SMU....they have NO IDEA what NTX is gonna do on D
Miss St ?....these boys could be down at the half (looks like Dak was pretty good)......S Bama maybe a (great) play at 30+ too
*not sure why I ain't on it yet....
TENN.....I think they roll from the start...but just in case.
WV? ....could be down at half...
*also dunno why I ain't down on Mizzou at 10+.....Dana / Couch Burners.....are TERRIBLE favorites.....they lost GREAT players off that D
S Miss.....if down big at half......I don't trust Kentucky here
BAMA......if tight at half.....and controlling LOS as expected
**** TULSA ****....EASILY could be tight/down at half...NO WAY......
......the Spartans hang for 4Q in the heat....facing the RELENTLESS pace of Tulsa
IF....it doesn't play out as expected.....PASS......simple
the KEY.....is to plan these out in ADVANCE...along with setting a LIMIT on what you will bet
* IMPULSIVE in-game / halftime betting (especially when alcohol fueled.............
........is a bankroll KILLER.........
got a bunch of 'em............
got too much work to do now...I'll write something up in a few days
EARLY in the year....is much tougher.....later (when tendencies established)....much easier
week 1....basically looking for better value...on teams I like (maybe missed a favorable line)....
*let's say I REALLY like Texas getting 7 or more....IF ND scores 1st.....you probably will get it (in-game of course)....sometimes shocking what you can get
*OR.....let's say I REALLY think the Irish will WIN the game....Horns might get up EARLY (I actually think they will).....NOW......consider the Irish....at + odds
$$ I did this (big) on Bama 4Q vs Clemson.....as I was SURE (ha)....that Bama would win the game....waited for a Clemson score.....THEN hit at +100 or so
OR......I have a few games where I think a team might start slow......but I am convinced they will eventually take control
Penn St....new O could easily struggle early.. vs a decent D
N Dame....I think they figure it out at some point (Horns are very adept at LOSING games > winning / closing games out? > doubt it)
UCF !!!!!!!!!!....if 2H is available
LSU !!!!.......ain't laying the 10.....will lay a smaller number 2H for damm sure
SMU....they have NO IDEA what NTX is gonna do on D
Miss St ?....these boys could be down at the half (looks like Dak was pretty good)......S Bama maybe a (great) play at 30+ too
*not sure why I ain't on it yet....
TENN.....I think they roll from the start...but just in case.
WV? ....could be down at half...
*also dunno why I ain't down on Mizzou at 10+.....Dana / Couch Burners.....are TERRIBLE favorites.....they lost GREAT players off that D
S Miss.....if down big at half......I don't trust Kentucky here
BAMA......if tight at half.....and controlling LOS as expected
**** TULSA ****....EASILY could be tight/down at half...NO WAY......
......the Spartans hang for 4Q in the heat....facing the RELENTLESS pace of TulsaIF....it doesn't play out as expected.....PASS......simple
the KEY.....is to plan these out in ADVANCE...along with setting a LIMIT on what you will bet
* IMPULSIVE in-game / halftime betting (especially when alcohol fueled.............
........is a bankroll KILLER......... forgot.....
I don't pay much attention to this kinda stuff
*but when looking for in-game plays....here's a way to cheat kinda sorta............
.SOMETIMES....it is easier to predict who might score 1st
*maybe one coach always DEFERS....one always WANTS THE BALL...tough to figure out ....unless you know the team / HC
eg. I like this (possible) in-game anyway........but
*let's say you like LSU....but DON'T like the fat 10/
But what IF.....that Lester T. Miles....usually defers....but Wisky HC Chryst....likes the ball.....(he just might I have no idea)
*Wisky scores 1st....you NOW have LSU - < 7 (maybe).......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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