Links...notes...week 1 stuff

*updated from LY.....missed a few I'm sure



PREVIEWS

1) Bill Connelly's previews (FREE)
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-team-previews-2015
  *no doubt the best for the matchup handicapper...one I use the most / saves a ton of time

2)  Steele
https://www.philsteele.com/store/
  *still the most comprehensive....less ATS stuff because Steele is trying to be a respected/ marketable CFB 'expert'
   it worked...note he is still 'loosely associated' with Power Sweep but no longer does the work himself


3) Mark Lawrence's Playbook (magazine / $10 / online or in stores) 
https://www.playbook.com/
  *NFL too...the best technical/trend guy...all in alphabetical order...quick reference for
ATS records last 10 years  
     note:  Vegas Insider has much of this free

4) FREE online
    Gold Sheet-  https://www.goldsheet.com/index.php
    CFN Scout-   https://cfn.scout.com/
      * OK....of some use maybe
                  https://www.collegesports-fans.com/football-previews/
                  https://www.nationalchamps.net
  
6)  Usual Magazines
     *Athlons...Lindy's...Sporting News...ESPN...not bad for bathroom maybe
   
       Websites I use most

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football
https://www.philsteele.com/index.html
https://www.cfbstats.com/2015/national/index.html
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/
https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
https://www.vegasinsider.com/
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database
https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/
https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/
 


GENERAL CFB

https://www.ncaafootball.com/
https://espn.go.com/college-football/
https://www.si.com/college-football
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/
https://www.athlonsports.com/college-football
https://www.lindyssports.com/college-football/
https://collegefootball.ap.org/articles
https://collegefootball.ap.org/
https://bleacherreport.com/college-football
https://www.nationalchamps.net/
https://heismanpundit.com/
  *media links for each team + official website:
  https://www.philsteele.com/FBSInfo/schoollinks.html 
  *rosters and depth chart for each team
  https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/



POWER RATINGS

https://www.goldsheet.com/product.php (weekly newsletter)
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/3/31/11336856/ncaa-football-2016-conference-projections-predictions
https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/
https://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
https://www.dunkelindex.com/football_level/ncaa-college/
https://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/superlist/
https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/power-rating-differential?rating-sport=nfl
https://knology.net/~brucepayne/
https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfpred.txt
https://powerratings.com/cfootball.htm
https://www.compughterratings.com/FBS/ratings
https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/current_congrove_rankings.html
  *check out that Ed Feng at Power Rank (Tree PHD in research)



STATS

https://www.cfbstats.com/2015/national/index.html
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
https://www.statfox.com/
https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/NCAAF/
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/
https://football.stassen.com/



ATS

head to head
  https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database
situational
  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
spread > winning %
  https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
spread > ML conversion
  https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/
team overall
  https://www.statfox.com/cfb/teamreport.asp?sortby=team


INJURIES

https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
https://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/Injuries/prior_to_ssn.html
https://scores.goldsheet.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=goldsheet2&page=cfoot/indexpic.htm
https://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=athlonsports&page=cfoot/injuries/injury.aspx?conf=AM
https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/
https://www.rotoworld.com/sports/cfb/college-football




GENERAL WAGERING

https://www.vegasinsider.com/
https://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/index.php
https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/
https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/
https://www.handicapper.net/
https://www.sportsnetwork.com/
https://www.playbook.com/
https://www.ncsports.com/
https://www.pickmonitor.com/how-to-bet-on-sports
https://www.scoresandodds.com/index.html
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds
https://www.bettingtalk.com/
https://www.thespread.com/ncaafb
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/index.php
https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ (Kelly criterion calculator)
https://www.covers.com/sportsbetting/money_lines.aspx (winning probablity / ML calculator)
https://www.casinoreview.org/resources/caculator/spreadml-converter/ (spread to ML_
https://www.vegasinsider.com/live-odds/line-originator/nevada/ (Vegas lines originate)


 
COACHING STUFF

https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/coaching_changes.html
https://footballscoop.com/
https://coachingsearch.com/
https://coacheshotseat.com/



NEWSLETTERS

https://www.playbook.com/
https://www.ncsports.com/
https://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/product.php
https://winningpoints.com/football.html
https://www.pointwisesports.com/
https://www.sportsreporter.com/



SCHEDULES / LINESHEETS

https://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/2016-college-football-schedules.php
https://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2016/06/15/college-football-tv-schedule-guide-fbs-2016/85930918/
https://www.ospublications.com/
https://www.gridirongold.com/football-line-sheets.htm
https://www.linesheet.com/footballnextweek.htm
https://www.ncsports.com/schedule_logs.html


FCS

https://www.fcs.football/fcsfront.asp
https://www.fcsinsider.com/
https://www.philsteele.com/FCSINFO/TeamPages/FCS_Direct.html
https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fcs
https://herosports.com/colleges/sports/fcs-mens-football
https://www.afca.com/article/article.php?id=1142
https://www.theunderdawg.com/
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/sneak-peek-fcs-2016-190444229--ncaaf.html
https://www.anygivensaturday.com/forumdisplay.php?2-FCS-Discussion



Football Nerds only

https://smartfootball.com/
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/
https://www.footballxos.com/
https://www.solidverbal.com/
https://brophyfootball.blogspot.com/
https://coachhuey.com/

Head Coaches we know.....
  *coordinator hires can be big too
      missed a few / left some out if maybe things don't change much


Key Coordinator Hires

LSU          DC Dave Aranda (Wisky)
Tenn         DC Bob Shoop
Indiana     DC Tom Allen  (USF)
UTEP       OC Brent Pease (Boise/Fla...)
Oregon     DC Brady Hoke (Michigan)
WV           OC Joe Wickline (Texas/OSU)
MTS          OC Tony Franklin (Cal)
Ohio St      DC Greg Sciano (Rutgers/NFL)
NMSU       DC Frank Spaziani  (B Coll)
Penn St     OC Joe Moorhead (Fordham)
A&M          OC Noel Mazzone (UCLA)
Kentucky   OC Eddie Gran (Cinn)
Miami        DC Manny Diaz (everywhere)
Zona         DC Marcel Yates (Boise)
Illinois        OC Garrick McGee (Ark/Louisville)
SJSU         DC Ron English (Michigan / EMich)
Texas         OC Sterlin Gilbert (Tulsa)
NCST         OC Eli Drinkwitz (Boise)
Mary           OC Walt Bell (Ark St)
Mich           DC Dan Brown (BColl)
ULM           OC Matt Kubik (SFA)
Georgia       OC Jim Chaney  (Pitt)
Wisky          DC Justin Wilcox (Wash / USC)  
Alabama      DC Jeremy Pruitt  

Moving to UP TEMPO...
  *or will play faster
    
KEY:  mainly for TOTALS...esp. if can't move ball >> DEFENSE is depth thin / not ready yet for transition... >> totals (might) be slow to adjust


PENN STATE...one of (if not) THE slowest LY...+ lost DC
UCF.....ditto...probably MUCH better than they looked LY
N TX....Baylor type O
Va Tech...Memphis type O
FAU....Oregon type O
Rutgers...maybe SLOW transition here?
Texas...who TK knows....took Charlie 3 years to install his O > now (likely) with true Fr...soooooooo
Tx St...(may) have the QB to run his O > expect SLOW start > better later?
Kentucky...hail mary for Stoops...maybe great 'over' team > O could be much better / D worse
Cuse....look for OVERS as they (probably) push the pace early


    *other key changes....

Tulane...AVOID early...might be much better (he has the RB's for his system) ...or much worse (QB/OL key)
Cinn...more pro style...OC Gran now at Kentucky
Nevada...more spread/less Pistol
UCLA...more pro style
BYU...more pro / slower pace
ULM...AVOID...OC an up-tempo spread guy (a killer for the ULM D)...HC a slower pace / power run type...so a mix (likely)
UTEP...Boise guy OC Pease slumming in El Paso...worth checking out maybe     

BA

KEY TRANSFERS

*some last year  > now eligible


Davis Webb, qb,CAL, from Texas Tech. 5,557 yards passing, 44 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

Kenny Hill, QB, TCU (from Texas A&M). completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,649 yards with 23 TDs and eight picks before being benched and suspended


Patrick Towles, QB, Boston College (from Kentucky).

NC State - Ryan Finley, qb, from Boise State: 646 yards passing, three touchdowns and five interceptions. Three starts last season....note new OC from Boise

Duke Catalon, RB, Houston (from Texas). A four-star recruit, .

Oklahoma State - Barry Sanders, rb, from Stanford: 672 yards rushing and five touchdowns.

Maryland - Trey Edmunds, rb, from Virginia Tech. 957 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns, including 675 and 10 as a freshman.

Rutgers -  Zach Allen, qb, from TCU.  may help ease transition to spread O

Louisiana Tech - Dalton Santos, lb, from Texas. Sat out last season with an injury. 74 tackles in 2013, but only 11 in 2014.

UTSA - Jared Johnson, qb, from Sam Houston State. 5,352 yards passing, 1,601 yards rushing and 50 total touchdowns. Started last two seasons.

Buffalo - Grant Rohach, qb, from Iowa State. 1,459 yards passing and 10 touchdowns.

Colorado State - Faton Bauta, qb, from Georgia. 202 yards passing in 18 games, including one start.

Nevada - Akeel Lynch, rb, from Penn State. 1,318 yards rushing and seven touchdowns.

QB Darell Garretson, Oregon State (from Utah State)

 Oregon - Dakota Prukop, qb, from Montana State. 5,584 yards passing, 46 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Texas A&M - Trevor Knight, qb, from Oklahoma. 3,424 yards passing, 25 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. 853 yards rushing and eight TDs.

Arkansas State - Chad Voytik, qb, from Pitt. 2,461 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. One season as a starter.


Texas State - Eddie Printz, qb, from Missouri. Threw one pass in two games.

New Mexico State - Tyler Matthews, qb, from Southern Mississippi via TCU. 112 yards passing and a touchdown for Southern Miss.


QB Philip Nelson, East Carolina (from Minnesota/Rutgers)

Luke Del Rio, QB, Florida (from Oregon State). The son of Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio 


Rommel Mageo, LB, Ole Miss (from Oregon State). The Beavers' leading tackler last season

Alex Ross, RB (from Oklahoma), and Chris Black, WR (from Alabama), Missouri.

Alec Morris, QB, North Texas (from Alabama)

ARK St, WR Kendall Sanders (Texas)/Cameron Echols-Luper (TCU/ great return man)

 WR JoJo Natson, Akron (from Utah State)...playmaker much needed here
 
note:   most c/p from several sources

Absolutely fantastic wealth of information here from one of the best.

Early Season betting ideas.....


    
1)     STAY AWAY FROM THE UNCERTAINTY

try to focus on teams that return much of last year's team.....HC / QB / both OC and DC + key players
 
*WHY?....think about it man!....easier to PREDICT how they will play right....new HC?.....you have NO idea how they will play....will he tear the program down/ start over...or use a more gradual transition?
 
               $ often we see a solid history of improvement or decline....which will usually continue unless some major change has occurred
       
 RETURNING STARTERS?....the most misunderstood / misused aspect of handicapping CFB?......how eggzactly.....can you conclude that having a bunch of guys back means hey they're gonna be pretty good!
    
    *proper use?.....see above > to simply help predict how a team
         / unit....will play        
         *everybody back on D?....and they've been better each year under the HC/DC....they're gonna be slightly at least improved
                   .
                 KEY-  what matters is the QUALITY of the player replacing the departed starter...he just MIGHT be a lot better....or much worse             


2)  Ignore (most) bowl results and spring practice crap...they are EXHIBITION games for the most part
      *later games?....where BOTH teams are fully motivated...sure you can make a few conclusions
         

3)  Some teams are ALREADY in school...some start much later
         *those not in school are not restricted practice wise like those with school is session
               hint- c/p   _____2016 fall class schedule or calendar

 haven't found too many...lately....but if you like an east coast (in school prolly) team going west (not in school)...you better check
                  *LSU vs Washington in a late game burned me a few years ago
 

4)     FBS vs FCS -  your 1st look (most always)...should be to the the smaller school
       *most blindly bet the big school ...so usually the spread is a few points higher than it should be
     
Some HC's love to beat the helll outta the weaker team (when they can)...some could care less
              *some FCS teams are highly motivated and play hard for 4 quarters...some are ONLY there to pick up a check (especially if a big game on deck)  

   
          $   Teams / coaches that enjoy beating the crap outta FCS schools......usually those that have been down and/or have few shots to win big....also teams that run a lot anyway (doesn't look bad when all you do is run)
           Air Force...Zona...Ga Tech...Cinn...Navy...Duke...N Caro
             *also...NMexico...Col...Ark St (last 5 games +108 pts from spread)...UNLV...MTS...Akron....maybe...SMU week 3 vs Liberty (TCU/Baylor sandwich)...Col week 2 vs Idaho St (Mich / Oreg sandwich)...ULL...Troy    

A few that don't seem to care much...
  *Iowa...Kan St...Ohio...SDSU...* S Alabama *


2015 FBS v FCS

overall 56-30 ATS / 49-37 OU
 
dog to <10     4-1 / 4-1
10 to 20         9-5 / 7-7
20 to 30        18-9 / 15-12
30 to 40       16-10 / 14-12
40+                8-5 / 10-3

week 1        26-19 / 27-18
week 2         19-6 / 10-15
week 3         11-5 / 12-4  

Holly S, that is a well organized list. Thanks for typing that all out. 

STRATEGY

 

  FIRST THINGS FIRST :     we lose money....NOT because we do not follow the rules....but because we are TERRIBLE decision makers....in most every aspect of our lives....so gambling is no different.....even worse since $$ is involved
            the GREAT accomplishments of a very few...confuse us unto thinking we ALL are REALLY sharp
  
  *most here?...can't figure out how to cross the freakin' street (5000/ year die in US)....desperately looking for a sign / button to push to tell them when it's OK....wtf
    hint 1 : it's when no cars are coming
   hint 2 : maybe best to put the phone down for those 10 seconds or so as well
    
 POINT:  we have to WORK hard to win $ / be aware of our extreme LIMITATIONS to succeed   
 

  SO....make this as simple as possible
    *know the NUMBER (or team if you must) BEFOREHAND....
     *know WHEN / WHERE you can bet it
     *know HOW MUCH you will bet (write it down)
     *you win?....so what
    *lose?.......so what as you've done your best
 
 $ closer you can make this a MATH problem the better (removing as much bias / emotion as possible)    


1)   Decide...do you want to actually treat this as an 'investment'...income generating thing...or just a hobby that you kinda pay your expenses / maybe win a few bucks here and there
      
*MOST...half-azz it and stress out when they lose..  ?...winning ain't your GOAL anyway

$  IF you wanna get serious...have a solid plan and stick with it...you will PROFIT in the LONG RUN
        *essentially GUARANTEED money...with other inherent advantages (for most)...(cough)........we won't mention
 

       Maybe...think of the season as a round of golf...don't let a bad shot (bet) effect the next one...and REALLY don't let a bad hole (week) effect the next
           *play it shot by shot...hole by hole...each provides a new / different challenge
           **it's tough enough as it is...why ALLOW MENTAL crap to screw up your 'round'
            ***recall some of your best rounds...were maybe after a long lay-off right?...here the mental part of golf for once didn't cost you strokes...
               not to say don't think so much in wagering > just don't let (all our) incredible weaknesses (bias / emotion / lack of confidence...) screw things up

   
   2)       #1 thing for me?....Avoid handicapping games 'standing alone'......a team is getting BETTER / WORSE / TREADING water.....and is ALWAYS looking behind or ahead...try to examine a team's history with their current schedule and given opponents in mind...and write a story kinda...of how their season will go
  *We ALL do it with teams we know well..."OK they're gonna win here...get their azz kicked here" +++
   
   $  Contrary to popular belief...each coach doesn't prepare his team the SAME for every game....top teams like Bama facing a LONG season may not go all out to obliterate an inferior opponent...a smaller school facing a larger might hold back a bit..why risk injury to key players in a game they have no shot at winning?
         

 

Good stuff! GL bud.  

MATCH-UP ANALYSIS


IGNORE....totally...most every stat you see or hear
  *passing or yards/game?.......STUPID time kill
 
If deciding....will team A be able to RUN on team B?

 1)  cfbstats.com  - > game log > yds/carry
     a casual glance down the list gives you a snapshot

 2)  AX yourself...but which of their opponents can even STOP the run?
      *so what if they averaged 5.0/rush if the opposing D's were weak vs run

      Georgia Southern (#1) is a nice example...that illustrates several key points

                                 rushes      yds    yds/rush    TD
@ West Virginia           57         195        3.42        0
Western Mich.              52         413        7.94        5
Citadel                          49         383        7.82        6
@ Idaho                        52         441        8.48        5
@ La.-Monroe               67         455        6.79        6
New Mexico St.             59         507        8.59         7
@ App St.                     38         188        4.95          2
Texas St.                       67         503        7.51          4
@ Troy                          66         325        4.92          4
@ Georgia                    53         233        4.40           1
South Ala.                     56         489         8.73          6
Georgia St.                   44          135         3.07          1
+ B Green                     68          452         6.65          7

$  obviously a strong running team....but holy crap behold those run D's......a great run O?....the best in the country?

ANSWER-  as long as they're playing a really soft D...sure

How about a tougher D?
  *couldn't run vs WVirg...why?
      *go back to boxscore and look...any thing going on here?
         >>  GS QB was OUT ...bu was fine later (vs BG) but not then

@ Georgia....4.4/233.....not bad
   *WHEN did those yards come?....early in game when they NEEDED them?
     or LATE when game was over? (garbage time)
      1)  look at drive / play summaries for quick scan
      2)  check for LONG runs > individual stats
           $$$  did most every run go for 2 yds or so...then they broke one for 75? (skewing stats)

@ App St ditto....numbers fine but how EFFECTIVE were they?
    *they were TERRIBLE > I watched that game in total disgust

*for future reference.....what type  of D caused them problems?
  *scheme based?...3-4 / 4-3 / 4-2-5 / 3-3-5
  *INSIDE pressure?....getting penetration / attacking the gaps / mesh point?
  *was it just individual match-ups/ (bigger stronger guys they couldn't block)
  *maybe great pass D that made them totally one dimensional..bring extra guys up to stop the run > couldn't take advantage

It is correctly spelled "Strategery"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOUuKQlGdEs

All kidding aside. Thanks for the info. Very helpful.

2015         122-81 (60%)

like          = one unit recommended plays  >        49-27 (64%)
not bad    = less than one unit play       >             46-30 (61%)
mmaybe  = hunches can't support       >              27-24 (53%)
 
*last 3 years 399-279  (59%)
 *last 4-         521-360  (59%)


like          Wyoming +10'
                Rice +17'

not bad      NMSU +7
                  Tenn -20'
                  Georgia -2'

maybe        Army  +16'
                   SMU -9'
                   Miami +28
            

*looking at....Mizzou.....FIU.....Vandy...Toledo....WMich...Kentucky?...Ole Miss.....Texas +11 / under 65

all from 5Dimes / BM / or my favorite BetOnline ha



What I do here....
  *is present my betting sheet kinda sorta.....a list of IDEAS.....rather than actual plays.....as most of my plays are 1H/2H or in-game.....which I then ain't gonna run here and post.....because I'm busy looking for another one 
 
I usually play each top play straight up and a few of the rest.....
  *usually I will post my 'what the line should be' stuff each Sunday morning ....until I run out of gas..........

BOL this year boys......back in a few days............

Bookie 

FORGOT.....week 1....... I'm WAY too late and have done little work as of yet.....so have no really solid recommendations to be honest
  *some I might bump up or knock down....played top 2 + Army at 17 a few weeks ago.....the rest small.............

rest of STRATEGY.....didn't make it wtf.....
  **an intervention maybe.............



      TRY to think BIG PICTURE.....


you'll love this one..........


EXAMPLE:      TRUMP HAS NO SHOT....to beat Hillary
                  
I have been betting against him since this began.....friends/online

WHY?...forget all the (often discussed) nonsense (as all these things are popping into your head now > "but what about?"..  ....it doesn't matter.....

only ONE thing does :  A rich White BULLY will not get elected

            FACT :   Most of you Gen X / Y's here have no idea it seems...but we MEN (White mostly)...have been kicking the ever lovin' shiit outta most everybody else for LONG time.....
 
women?....it was still LEGAL in ALL 50 states....to RAPE your wife as late as 1972...1993 the last few states finally gave in (Oklahoma and N Caro seems like) >> they have been our PROPERTY for thousands of years....to USE / ABUSE as we see fit.........

minorities?.... holy crap
happy / lesbian / handicapped ....etc.....wow   

NOTE:       these are the people that are gonna get out and vote......because they have been fighting for way too long to just get a foothold > to being treated with ANY respect / dignity.....to THEM.....TRUMP represents a HUGE step backwards.....old crazy White guys (like me) really aren't MOTIVATED to vote....we still have it pretty good....so we'll biitch about stuff sure....but nothing will change for US (pretty much)
     
 $$   this country is SLOWLY but CLEARLY moving from an AUTOCRATIC leadership / communication style (shut TF up and do what I say)....to a more DEMOCRATIC one (everybody is entitled to a voice).....this will continue....until things get better....or we go flat broke......yes I know we're broke now

    note:    his only shot was a Hail Mary with his running mate...appointing Condi Rice or similar > showing some humility > a tear or two > references to God etc.......but nope > an old White guy with even more issues (perceived by above mentioned)
                        

FUNNY.....most of you (probably)  think my point is that I like Hillary / hate Trump ..............    

   

3)     LEARN TO USE YOUR OWN IDEAS....
        try to rely on OTHERS opinions...a bit less each year
          *if you only use others opinions...you'll never get better / only more confused

4)     Don't be a cheerleader...be CRITICAL
 
don't be a crystal ball type handicapper...you JUST KNOW Texas is gonna be great this year.....WHY?
    * If you can't EXPLAIN in simple terms why...shouldn't bet it....a hunch play every now and then is fine....a card full of hunches (goin' with my gut man!) is stupid
  
5)     Play on a team BEFORE they get better...not AFTER
         *just coming around to playing Clemson...Houston.....USF......you're TOO late (probably)


And remember......


  $$$  THERE ARE 2 SIDES TO EVERY BET - IF ONE SIDE APPEARS TO BE JUST TOO EASY...IT MOST LIKELY MEANS YOU DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE
            *Beware the guy that tells you it IS easy

*Respect EARLY line moves.....ignore LATE moves ...usually

* Put in the work....make a solid play > MOVE ON

 all this emotional investment I see here is an incredibly silly way to do it..if you need to make all these big guarantees to impress total strangers ONLINE......go see a shrink son wtf

CONSTANTLY Riding a high or low....will kill your bankroll
       *week  1 you go 3-7....(so what).....week  2 maybe 4-6....(so what)...etc.....etc...
        OR maybe the opposite.....7-3...6-4...."hey I'm pretty good!".....no you're not ..the wins / losses don't come in any nice order but often in bunches
         
KEY:  if you bet < 5% of your bankroll....you can 'lose enough'....so you won't run outta cash....until your W's catch up.....

                        
*Avoid....the DUE THEORY...team A has lost 3 in a row > they're DUE to win here.....say what?
   or their D just can't get any worse....WHY NOT?
         *it's a way to find EASY answers / shortcuts

* Listen to everyone > follow no one...................

Great stuff as always BA....  unfortunately 99.8% of the people who read this will ignore it.

Thanks BA!   

Nice analogy on Trump vs Clinton!

Some folks might say this is all just common sense, yet if it was common sense then everyone would already have it, right?

Thanks for taking the time to post!!

 

Excellent.....

You just moved ahead of DU in the hardest working capper on Covers race.  DU is going to have to step it up now.

BA, great work as always.  Thank you.  

Thanks boys.......all the best........................



Hillary at -135 is indeed  awesome value TD......I have several buddies that get SO emotional..... they bet me straight up....I offered them odds of course........
  *most of these guys bet CFB too....but yet conclude because I'm fading Trump here........I must like Hillary.......

im just worried about Double Ups futures and goy lines with south florida !!

 

excellent advice much respect!! thank you for taking the time and energy to drop some knowledge