Links...notes...week 1 stuff

added a few.....
  *bumped up Army.....saw a few 17's again

like         Wyoming +10'
               Rice +17'
               Georgia -2'         
            

not bad      NMSU +7
                   Tenn -20
                   Arizona -1
                   Tulsa -3'             
                   Army +17
            
maybe       SMU -9'
                  Miami +28              
                  Lamar +12



Dawgs......don't like the new HC / QB.....under huge pressure here.....but Kirby brought in great assistants (esp OC Chaney)
    $    BUT.....UNC is a SOFT team....and should get beat up ...I don't see how Ga can help but run all day.....Chubb looks good to go

UNC D... better LY under Chizik......but not much
  *Bill C's #116 rush D / #108 efficiency D / #124 on SD (standard downs) / #125 stuff rate (how much penetration do they get)
forget Baylor (7.7/rush - 645yds)...........
  *everybody that could / couldn't run....did

How 'bout the UNC O vs Georgia D?.....weaker than usual up front .....but the secondary should be tough.....hopefully Kirby continues to bring HEAT (one of few Bama weaknesses of past years)
     note :   Bama's D looks fairly simple but is actually quite complex ....especially coverage wise....Kirby will confuse the helll outta Trubisky or whomever.....remember Georgia has the much superior  athletes here.....although UNC looks pretty cool in those blue uni's

ZONA?.....BYU should be a team to play on.....later no doubt
  *but way too many changes this early
   NOBODY....on BYU staff has coached (this role before)
     HC?.....nope.....DC?.....nope.....OC?.....LY coached at a small private HIGH SCHOOL in Texas.....that's IT.....now in booth vs former Boise DC Marcel Yates....he will bring constant pressure

BRAND NEW O / D......hurry-up spread to more of a huddle/under center / pro-style.....QB's sharing reps too....old 3-4 > 4-3 
  Rich Rod?......struggled LY (terrible injuries).....but one of greatest offensive coaches EVER (basically invented power run spread).....under big pressure here.....fired long time 3-3-5 guy Casteel.....brought in Yates
  Zona...only Grambling on deck....REALLY needs this W....and should win here

TULSA?......wait a damm minute you say....SJSU maybe the better team wtf.....getting points !....Spartans with a tough secondary !....Tulsa can't stop anybody!

  $$  When I looked at SJSU (covered 2 of last 14 games as dog) / but 9 of 11 as favorite......1st thing that LEAPED off the page at me......was that AL BORGES is the OC (great rep > tried to make Denard Robinson a drop back passer) ......West Coast guy...still grinding / living off rep from Auburn days (Campbell / Williams / Brown).....now with no RB Irvin (1600 yds)....how's that crap gonna work here at Tulsa?....in the HEAT....nobody not named Baylor pushes the pace like Tulsa
    *note SJSU installing new D.....DC Greg Robinson FINALLY retired.....new guy Ron English (should) be allowed to run HIS OWN D < fine job at Michigan under Lloyd Carr
  *pass D?.....not bad because most opponents can't throw.....no heat either.....only 47 sacks last 3 years

KEY?......in Tulsa games....is not 'how good' is other team....but can they keep up?...............Hokies almost got their azz beat in a game they really wanted to win....................


Back with some 1H / 2H / in-game discussion soon



forgot..........

LAMAR?.....Cardinals had the #4 recruiting class in FCS LY....bring back the nation's top RB....lost 2 QB's to injury LY after beating SAM HOUSTON....later fell apart but only lost to McNeese by 6.....SELA by 3....CC losing great QB Ross.....now making one of the nastiest road trips ever.....to Beaumont Texas (trust me I lived there for awhile)....just messing around of course here (at -120) ....but 12 looks like too many......as CC has NO post-season for next 2 years....transitioning to the BELT (independent this year)...the better team sure.....but FULLY FOCUSED here?
 

there are no bigger homers than the political homers. that was clear in 2012. anybody who could read a poll cleaned up. same thing this year. just check out the Covers political forum. All politic posturing, no math. and very few actual bettors.

Thanks for the analysis, BA.  No one does it better than you.  Although, I'm pretty sure I confirmed your Wyoming lean  Number is holding firm at 10.0. Tried to tick up to 10.5, but seems to have brought the point takers (like us) back to the party.

UGA at -2.0?  All day long.  Whomever is hitting the Heels must think Williams is still the QB.

Thanks for your read on Zona / Mormons.  I was struggling a little, but have seen the light.

Aslut (Tulsa backwards) I cannot see what the Spartan backers like with this matchup.  All the way down to 3.5?  I bought the hook to 3.0 and am already wondering what I'm going to do with all that cash (not really), but I love the Golden Showers at -3.0.

Beaumont, TX...where hopes and dreams go to die.  Thankfully, I have never lived there, but have visited, briefly.  Gotta be a place where CC wants to get in and get out as quickly as possible.  Home team catching 12 is a gift, I think.

  

few injury notes

  *use Don Best for a more updated list....
      Steele OK for a more comprehensive look

https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
https://hosted.stats.com/cfb/wire.asp
https://collegefootball.ap.org/articles
https://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/cfb/0/College-Football-Headlines

The idea here.....which totally scrambles the brain of many....is to not simply read what we have been told .....but to GUESS what they (likely) meant....as they are NOT required to tell the truth

Questionable = doubtful to a handicapper....to a simple fan it means .....:"OH he'll be just fine....thank you !".....





QB

Ohio   Sprague quit team
Army   Bradshaw BACK at practice (supposedly)
 
*off injury > check status
NI        Hare off ACHILLES....he ain't gonna be 100% I betcha
Old D   Washington
AF       Romine
Duke   Sirk maybe out 1st 2 or so....RFr Jones likely starter?


RB/WR

NMSU   Rose should play <100%....maybe out tough to  say
Georgia  Chubb should play < 100%
Kentucky  Williams ditto
Kent St   top WR Dixon OFY
Texas  Warren and Foreman MAYBE < 100%
  *NO NEED for Horn Cheerleaders to tell me "oh they'll be FINE !!!"
LSU    Fournette maybe < 100%....ditto to Tiger fans
Wisky  Clement is ALWAYS < 100%

  NOTE:  if a guy has been LIMITED in practice > his CONDITIONING is not where it should be....THEREFORE....he is < 100%....especially LATE in a game (when he is needed most)

WVag  RB Shell
Tulsa   WR Lucas (off injury)
BYU    WR Kurtz (6-6)

others....

NMSU  best defensive player MLB Ibekwe...sounds doubtful

    

Gl this season Bookies

EXAMPLE:      TRUMP HAS NO SHOT....to beat Hillary
                  
I have been betting against him since this began.....friends/online

WHY?...forget all the (often discussed) nonsense (as all these things are popping into your head now > "but what about?"..  ....it doesn't matter.....

only ONE thing does :  A rich White BULLY will not get elected


Love this...Republicans fall for those arrogant rich guys (Bush, Romney, and now the ultimate, Trump.) There's not enough suckers in America to elect Trump; he makes Hillary look like the greatest, as she's got more baggage than Samsonite. I hope that Elizabeth Warren will be our 2nd female president and regret that she will not be our 1st.

The party of Lincoln is the Democratic party today. Not a single Democrat took a rich man's pledge. I am from the south and have seen folks being hoodwinked by the Republicans for years to vote against their self-interest. So sad.

Love your posts...let's get 'em this year!

All the best,
RT2

I listed this one in my links...but here is a really solid set of PR by the great ED FENG ....Stanford PHD in research / hangs out with Bill C.
 
https://thepowerrank.com/2016/06/27/finally-college-football-preseason-rankings-for-2016/


NOTE:  The GOAL.....is to find a number that will work vs EVERY team...which is impossible.....
         $$    So YOU have to adjust
       

eg.    Bama  -5  vs  Clemson?
         *gotta be closer to P
 WHY?  1)  Clemson (with Watson at QB) matches up well vs Bama....offensively AND defensively (assuming their D doesn't drop off that much)
             2)  revenge factor...mild but worth something


UTAH    - 15'   vs  Middle Tenn St?....bout right
OREGON  - 17    vs  MTS?...Ducks more likely to EXTEND the margin...would have to closer to 21
  *how bout Ducks -1' vs Utah?....Utes beat 'em 62-20 LY....that line might CLOSE at 9'-10...who the helll is gonna take Utah here?
     $$  also illustrating another point...9'-10 would be too much probably...but the sheer volume of cash on the Ducks would push it higher than it 'should be'

you get the idea.....

WARNING:  if you sign up for his newsletter....big Ed will send you an email at 3:00am.....(email notifications to cell yikes)




I have a hard time finding much I DON'T like with these....
  *A&M too high....but many others overrate them as well.....BUT they MIGHT be that good who TF knows....
  *side note.....looking very hard at OU....and the GREAT players they lost.....holy crap are they getting a TON of respect....I'm not sure what to do with them....but I wouldn't put a ton of cash on them just YET

Full college football preseason rankings

1. Alabama, 21.2
2. Florida State, 19.3
3. LSU, 17.3
4. Clemson, 16.3
5. Oklahoma, 16.2
6. Stanford, 15.7
7. Tennessee, 14.8
8. Mississippi, 13.2
9. Michigan, 12.6
10. Texas A&M, 12.3
11. Ohio State, 12.1
12. Arkansas, 11.8
13. Notre Dame, 11.8
14. Louisville, 11.3
15. Baylor, 11.3
16. Georgia, 11.0
17. Oklahoma State, 10.8
18. Oregon, 10.7
19. USC, 10.4
20. North Carolina, 10.1
21. TCU, 9.9
22. Wisconsin, 9.8
23. Mississippi State, 9.5
24. Utah, 8.9
25. Nebraska, 8.7
26. Washington, 8.6
27. Brigham Young, 8.6
28. Florida, 8.3
29. Michigan State, 7.9
30. Washington State, 7.3
31. Virginia Tech, 7.2
32. Auburn, 7.1
33. Pittsburgh, 6.7
34. South Carolina, 5.9
35. West Virginia, 5.8
36. Iowa, 5.8
37. UCLA, 5.6
38. Arizona, 5.5
39. Texas, 5.4
40. Miami (FL), 5.2
41. Houston, 5.2
42. Texas Tech, 5.0
43. Penn State, 3.9
44. Vanderbilt, 3.7
45. Memphis, 3.6
46. Toledo, 3.5
47. Georgia Tech, 3.4
48. Cincinnati, 3.4
49. Boise State, 3.4
50. Kansas State, 3.3
51. South Florida, 3.2
52. Missouri, 3.0
53. Arizona State, 2.6
54. Temple, 2.6
55. Boston College, 2.5
56. California, 2.1
57. Georgia Southern, 2.0
58. Northwestern, 1.9
59. North Carolina State, 1.9
60. Minnesota, 1.8
61. Navy, 1.3
62. Western Kentucky, 1.3
63. Iowa State, 1.0
64. Syracuse, 0.9
65. Northern Illinois, 0.7
66. San Diego State, 0.6
67. Indiana, 0.5
68. Western Michigan, 0.3
69. Bowling Green, 0.0
70. Air Force, -0.3
71. Connecticut, -0.3
72. Virginia, -0.5
73. Wake Forest, -0.6
74. Utah State, -0.6
75. Duke, -0.6
76. Purdue, -1.2
77. Colorado, -1.2
78. Maryland, -1.3
79. Marshall, -1.5
80. East Carolina, -1.8
81. San Jose State, -1.8
82. Tulsa, -2.2
83. Kentucky, -2.3
84. Rutgers, -2.4
85. Appalachian State, -2.4
86. Central Michigan, -2.4
87. Oregon State, -2.7
88. Illinois, -4.2
89. UCF, -5.5
90. Arkansas State, -5.7
91. Army, -5.9
92. Middle Tennessee State, -6.6
93. Louisiana Tech, -6.7
94. SMU, -6.9
95. Nevada, -7.0
96. Ohio, -7.5
97. Colorado State, -7.9
98. Florida Atlantic, -7.9
99. Troy, -8.0
100. Southern Miss, -8.0
101. Kent State, -8.1
102. Ball State, -8.6
103. Georgia State, -8.9
104. New Mexico, -9.1
105. Wyoming, -9.2
106. Louisiana Lafayette, -9.3
107. Hawaii, -9.4
108. Rice, -10.1
109. Buffalo, -10.3
110. Tulane, -11.0
111. Kansas, -11.4
112. UNLV, -12.0
113. Akron, -12.5
114. Fresno State, -12.6
115. South Alabama, -12.7
116. Old Dominion, -13.9
117. Miami (OH), -14.3
118. Florida International, -14.4
119. Louisiana Monroe, -14.8
120. North Texas, -15.2
121. Eastern Michigan, -15.2
122. UTEP, -15.9
123. Idaho, -16.0
124. Massachusetts, -16.6
125. UTSA, -17.4
126. New Mexico State, -18.8
127. Texas State, -20.9
128. Charlotte, -24.0

Do not post on Covers often but wanted to thank you for the thread, this year and in past years.

Good luck.

Great job

unbelievable stuff man....glad to say we have similar handicapping concepts....so true about how few if any at the sports bar or anywhere outside of boards like this you can have any handicapping discussion at all....great ATS year last season, right on the rough 120-80 goal we have for each season...a challenge to say the least...plenty of room to make cash even if in the ballpark on that number obviously...looking forward to the weekly notes and picks....BOL this season as always buddy

 

stop trying to turn my BIG picture argument.....to small stuff.........

forget politics.....even tho you're right here
  *just as you were correct.....saying Indiana was the better team....their GOAL (simply making a bowl)....had been MET.....Duke's driving force.....was to actually WIN a bowl

Next time Indiana makes a bowl......assuming the match-up is favorable....(maybe vs a soft bend/not break D...slow paced O)....Hoosiers will be one of my top plays

My last BP play?......LeBron vs Stephanie Curry of course
  *although that one made me nervous too.....but stayed with it all thru the final game.....(+220 in May > +170 or so)

Off HUGE year.....EVERYBODY telling them they're the GREATEST....maybe EVER!......they bust their azz to prove it.....expending a tremendous amount of REGULAR season energy / emotion .......
  *my man LBJ?.....listening to this crap.....about how he's NOW #2.........does this sound right?.....not to me (don't even watch NBA ha)....no way GSt.... JUMP SHOOTS their way to another title

BOL this year Skipster.............

mjm1012            thanks for stopping by man BOL......
RicoCortez        good man Rico thanks for the kind words.....

eastcoast305   more posts from you EC is what we need......
vankiep_0007   thanks and BOL.......

RebelTell2              .....PLEASE don't get me started on the GENERIC / ultra conservative White / I don't like EITHER...but I'm afraid to say Trump is an idiot.....guy.............

clowncar/      looks like we are on many of same plays...more Bill C. man ................all the best this year........

shark_apreza   there he is....thanks buddy......

jimmydafreak   oh crap....forgot you're a conspiracy nut TOO..........BOL this year Freak............

nostradamus12       too kind man....
              I'm....surprised by this anybody?..........a CFB bully of the highest order.....totally incapable of engaging in ANY 'fan talk'.....whatsoever
               who once told*...a former CFB / NFL HC....he doesn't know what the helll he was talking about (before catching myself ha)..........* while watching games > no I don't usually run with that crowd most weekends.....
   Cowboy fans threaten to kill me weekly...after I inform them their team is DONE before the season begins...and /or Longhorn fans when informed of how bad they REALLY are....
BOL this year buddy...............   

Sorry boys...I read each response.....but not a class (enuff) guy like Nostradamus.....nor ambitious like that Mega...........................
  *to respond to everybody

Really..... not enough TIME....(horrific typist / no computer skills whatsoever)......sitting here with fat #2 pencil / Big Chief tablet basically.......
      *anybody here know what a BC tablet is?.......


  *past years I spend all day jacking around here (more fun)...putting off the RESEARCH......I need to do to stay ahead........  

I hate you even MORE now Thorpe....................................

Great thread! Really appreciate the wisdom.

got a bunch of 'em............

got too much work to do now...I'll write something up in a few days 

EARLY in the year....is much tougher.....later (when tendencies established)....much easier

week 1....basically looking for better value...on teams I like (maybe missed a favorable line)....
  *let's say I REALLY like Texas getting 7 or more....IF ND scores 1st.....you probably will get it (in-game of course)....sometimes shocking what you can get
  *OR.....let's say I REALLY think the Irish will WIN the game....Horns might get up EARLY (I actually think they will).....NOW......consider the Irish....at + odds
  $$ I did this (big) on Bama 4Q vs Clemson.....as I was SURE (ha)....that Bama would win the game....waited for a Clemson score.....THEN hit at +100 or so

OR......I have a few games where I think a team might start slow......but I am convinced they will eventually take control

Penn St....new O could easily struggle early.. vs a decent D

N Dame....I think they figure it out at some point (Horns are very adept at LOSING games > winning / closing games out? > doubt it)
 
UCF !!!!!!!!!!....if 2H is available

LSU !!!!.......ain't laying the 10.....will lay a smaller number 2H for damm sure

SMU....they have NO IDEA what NTX is gonna do on D

Miss St ?....these boys could be down at the half (looks like Dak was pretty good)......S Bama maybe a (great) play at 30+ too
  *not sure why I ain't on it yet....

TENN.....I think they roll from the start...but just in case.

WV? ....could be down at half...
  *also dunno why I ain't down on Mizzou at 10+.....Dana / Couch Burners.....are TERRIBLE favorites.....they lost GREAT players off that D

S Miss.....if down big at half......I don't trust Kentucky here

BAMA......if tight  at half.....and controlling LOS as expected

****  TULSA ****....EASILY could be tight/down at half...NO WAY............the Spartans hang for 4Q in the heat....facing the RELENTLESS pace of Tulsa

IF....it doesn't play out as expected.....PASS......simple

the KEY.....is to plan these out in ADVANCE...along with setting a LIMIT on what you will bet
  * IMPULSIVE in-game / halftime betting (especially when alcohol fueled.....................is a bankroll KILLER......... 
                      

nothing tonite.....went VERY small on 1H UNDER 34...looking for a play on Cal late.....if Webb looks good / Hawaii not moving the chains >> D is back on field too soon.....will wear out late

THORPE.......my life is complete....except for one thing
  * A DECENT CFB SCOREBOARD

* 'all FBS' games option (not making me select top 25/ or conf)
* gotta have yards/play....list of drives maybe too
* UPDATES > stays current
* sacks

keep going BACK  to ESPN .....can't stand ESPN
  *Yahoo WAS great.....new stuff sux....or did LY

Using NCAA.com now.....not bad......
  *CBS......OK.........FOX......kinda OK.............

How much $$$ do you live bet or 2nd half bet compared to normal bet?

For 1H / 2H / quarters stuff.....usually smaller....< 1 unit....early in year.........later when I have a better feel.....once I've seen CONSISTENT / CLUTCH (or not)....QB play.....standard play or larger if really looks good....mostly I wanna see TOUGH D / few mistakes (+QB of course)

Tonite....I don't see how Hawaii stays within 10 of Cal in 2H
  *as Cal is REALLY pushing the pace....play every 19.5 sec or so
 ** LY Hawaii #123 in adj pace (Bill C).....but tough to say if they can be trusted YET..... so I'll pass on the 8-8'.....see what happens

drives me nuts.....esp. on my cell
  *kinda like the clean look of that NCAA.com.....really an underrated site.....once you figure out how to get to the stuff you want...not bad.............