NCAA week 10

Megalocks line 9

Sagarin 12

Let's get to the bad stuff first. The matchup between the Ole Miss passing game and the Arkansas pass D is a scary one. Ole Miss is going to have some success. Treadwell is going to be a handful. But we are getting 11 points - not saying Ole Miss is not better - or than the Hogs will win. They just have to stop the Rebels from going nuclear in the passing game.

It should be a game plan that works for Arkansas. Best to just run right at Ole Miss with the nice running game and OL....we also like THIS matchup....RB Collins has almost 1000 yds already and 12 TDs.....We are also big fans of QB Collins who has only thrown 5 int all year vs 15 TD and has been getting better.....They have had to get more creative with options in the passing game and it seems to be working.  Numbers and Stats are all just that - numbers and stats - who knows - BUT - Arkansas leads the SEC in 3rd down conversion %....They are 8th in the NCAA in time of possession.....Think they can move the ball on Ole Miss and they do not turn the ball over a lot - #3 in the SEC in turnover margin and Ole Miss is #13 including 12 int from QB Kelly who we also like but seems more prone to "huh?" throws.

So again - not talking SU win - but in the context of +11......It just seems like a lot of points.....Last 6 games - if you exclude the New Mex St game - Ole Miss has not scored more than 27 points....27 10 24 23 27.....Having trouble in the RZ with mistakes and inability to run the ball effectively.....We think people still remember them putting up back to back 70s on the board vs 2 bad teams....but as the schedule has gotten tougher...The offense has found it tougher to score- yes they still go really fast - but not getting the points to show for it. 27 on Auburn last game. 23 the week before against AM at home when AM could not make a first down. No doubt Ole Miss gets some points - but fundamental football keeps this one closer than DD. We hope.

Last year 30-0 Ark win means basically nothing IMO b/c Ark D near the end of last yr was sick and this yr a more than a few notches down. Revenge? Well Ole Miss just want to win the game and move on - Pressure is on them to win out. Real pressure.

GL mega

Madden - thanks pal - GL

Lion - you got it  Will add Navy game to Request line

Trey - great intel  and good eye - We agree - had UNLV on our short list but missed a 6.5  then the 7 seems to have run away on us...........May still add but not sure yet GL buddy

BWS  Technically true about BC if they beat Notre Dame NC St and Syracuse ....I read last night that there are actually more than a few bowl teams projected to be 5-7 ! funny.

chopped

Urban - ya BYU looks solid

Barney

hradekbr  thx bro. Glad you are aboard with NC St. GL this wk. Not sure about LSU game yet.

Jersey -  Guys have already piped in with good suggestions....To me the key is to have multiple legitimate outs - the more books you have (that are LEGITIMATE) the more options you have and the higher your win % will be over time and the more  in your pocket. GL !

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

UP NEXT  Tuesday thru Friday games

Tuesday Game

Toledo 7.5 Northern Illinois

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 12.5

This is just one of the games that the MEGALOCKS Supercomputer Complex disagrees with quite significantly from a PR perspective - Your boy Sagarin has this game well into the double digits we shall see.

We looked quite a bit into this one - and what is really interesting is how similar both teams are when looking at a lot of the basic stats we prefer when scoping out a game inititally. Both teams in many stats rank between 2nd and 5th in the MAC....Toledo slightly better across the board.....However there are two areas - one for each team that we noticed a difference......1)Toledo - MEGALOCKS 784231 STAR STAT OF THE WEEK.....only $399 on our hotline or free if you read it here now - Toledo has NOT given up a sack ALL YEAR.....We had to double check that with our MAC INSIDERS and yes indeed it is true....#1 in MAC in sacks allowed (0) and #1 in TFL allowed. They do not allow PENETRATION  and when you combine that with an excellent running game and #1 RZ D in the entire NCAA - that my friends in a recipe for success. 2) N Illinois.....Toledo QB Ely has thrown 7 INT this yr - a lot of them lately and only completed 55% of his passes.....Hare is very smart with the football....I mean take away the DEBACLE in the rain vs C Michigan and Hare is as safe as they come......If either team makes a key turnover or two our bet is on Toledo to throw an untimely INT or two. Just a guess.

Intangibles. NIU has made 5 straight MAC Title Games. Toledo has not been there since 2004. Gotta beat the Champ and it is rarely easy. Especially when NIU can play the underdog card. NIU is also a very good road dog ATS and has won 5 STR vs Toledo.

NIU should keep this one close but the line looks about right maybe a bit high. We like the combo of NIU QB Hare and RB Beef Bouagnon to keep the Toledo D honest and make this a one score game heading into the 4Q....then ???

Summary. Lean NIU at 7.5 or more. Still considering what to do with this bad boy.

mega

Wednesday game

Bowling Green 18.5 Ohio

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 18.5

Not a game we are too interested in....Normally would love this situation for at least a deeper look if only because Ohio has just CRAPPED the BED the last 2 weeks giving up 90 points D imploding due to injuries and QB play very shaky and in those 2 games they were over -60 ATS....At the same time BG has been giving to the bookie hard with no lotion well over +70 ATS in the last 3 weeks and have become one of the public favs.....So you know this line has to be inflated. Right ? Well because BG is so explosive - 62 59 48 last 3 games this feels like one of those Big 12 games where the spread does not matter and points are by the bucketful so maybe they hang 50 again? We doubt it but want to see ohio at least play one half of decent football again.....Funny thing is - they can still get to 7 wins have kent and ball st at home....That would probably get them in a bowl after being snubbed last yr at 6-6.

Summary. no thanks.

mega

Thursday

Buffalo 2.5 Kent St

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 7.5

Lean to the fav here but cannot pull the trigger yet....Buffalo has not done much wrong this year outside of the Chips game - even playing some good teams tough - held BG to their season low in points as noted last week.....You know we like QB Veal Licata and their RB/WR provide nice balance...This yr they have been inconsistent and frustrating at times for fans but we think they have been ok to be honest...Should get 6-7 wins and get to a bowl game.......Now Kent St is the worst offense in the MAC....averaging just over 4 yds/play waaaaaaaaaaaat....But their D has been excellent #2 in the MAC in total yards/game and #1 in yards per play D.....Bollas has taken over at QB and while he still has very limited options to throw to - he has shown the ability to make some plays and lead the team to a decent win (for them) at UMass in which they held UMass in check for 60 min...Also have a couple other games in their pedigree this yr that suggest even when being outgained if they win the turnover battle or play up to their potential - a home win vs Buffalo is not out of the question.....Also off a bye.....Home team FWIW has not done well lately in this series.......Last yr this game was cancelled due to 14 feet of snow falling in Buffalo in just under an hour.....Also note that there are 2.5s everywhere surprised this is not 3 yet....In other words you could put 45 trillion on Buffalo right now and nobody would stop you. We hate that.

Summary. Lean Buffalo. Gonna wait for the total.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

MEGALOCKS ALERT!

Michigan State line just came out at -5 at Nebraska, I anticipated that it would be double that. Any thoughts on it?
As always, much appreciated!

Urban

We have the fair line at -7 so anything under 7 seems like a good play to us

you got it !  on the list. might not get to it until wed

Geaux -  should have the BYU game done tomorrow - GL!

the don - good idea  I like app st the best of all those games you listed - win or lose buddy that is a nice play I think but it is ncaa football who knows !

deweyman - will add to the list  prob will not get to it for a few days tho. GL