NCAA week 10

I like Bammer due to the edge at QB and the fact that the game will not be on frozen tundra. Lay the small chalk

Mega and crew
You guys do great work. Started following the thread a few weeks ago. . Good community of people working together with a freaking stud of a captain running the ship. Keep up the great work!!!

MEGA-

As always thanks for all the hard work you do to keep us DEGENERATES afloat.  I know you will be doing a write up on Fridays games soon, but being the avid SMU follower I am I wanted to chime in with some thoughts:

-    While SMU and QB Matt Davis have shown the ability to MATRICULATE they have faded a bit the last month of a season and don’t have much of a run game right now.  The only decent defense they have faced this year is USF who held them to 14 points and forced 4 turnovers.   Temple is a much better D than USF - Temple #7 in opponent pts per game vs USF #50.  Run game will be shut down and Temple will be able to focus on SMUs only 2 playmakers (Davis QB and Sutton WR). 

-    While Temple is not an offensive juggernaut I think Jahad Thomas will slice up SMUs porous run D and PJ Walker will also be able to MATRICULATE if he desires.  

-   Feel like it’s a good spot for Temple.  Relieved of the pressure of going undefeated and “they will be playing angry guy” after the ND loss (not to mention a bit of line deflation). 

-  There is no home field advantage at SMU.  The majority of the kids will stay at the tailgate to drink or already out at a bar on a Friday night and the stadium will be full of apathetic alumni out with their families.  

-   While -12 line and a serviceable offense / QB lends itself to a dreaded backdoor cover SMU is a first half team as they don’t have the horses to stay in it and they always open up their kimono in the 2nd half.  They will be beat up by the Temple D by 4Q and will struggle to do much at the end.

Watched quite a bit of Temple and AAC ball this year and I like Temple here.  Line feels like it should be in the -17 range. 


Look forward to your write up on this one.  Thanks Mega

Love the Arky play as well. I'm not one who locks in bets early usually but if I can still grab 10 by fri I'll be betting on the backs of the razors! BOL this week Mega you are rolling bro

With you all the way on arky. Can't wait to hear your thoughts on Clemson. I think they matchup well. That D-Line vs FSCook run game will be interesting.

Can I put Indiana and Iowa on the request line? Think it's a great spot play for the Hoosiers

nice info harvard. thanks for sharing. 

Thanks for the picks mega.

Thursday

W Michigan 14.5 Ball St (63.5)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 15.5

Line looks about right to us....You know we love taking the underdogs...And Ball St appears to have found their QB ....R Neal has 12 TD only 3 int ....Just cannot trust that D on the road....ranked #113 in NCAA and they are #122 in 3rd down defense W Michigan should be able to do whatever it wants and so even if we liked the dog - it is really hard to back a team that may not get too many stops...We like some of Ball's offensive pieces this is just not our style of game....WM tied for the lead in their division of the MAC undefeated in conf play should be plenty motivated.....WM QB Terrell 20-6 TD to int ratio hitting almost 70% of his throws....WM has just played Miami oh and EM but we expect they get a bit more resistance here especially early.

Summary. Lean over. No take on the side at this number. Would want 17 to take Ball.

mega

Like ARKANSAS this week ...

My favorite College poster right along with Wahoo   Lets make some dough this week bro  I got a couple to share and get your insight this week including one of my MAC specials 

Thanks mega!  Great insight and excellent write ups.  BOL!

Baylor 17.5 Kansas St (69.5)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 16

Another game we are probably not interested in....They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy could have a field day here.....K St played 2 very very good games losing to okie st by 2 and tcu by 7....then proceeded to lose the next 2 by a combined score of 78-9....May have got worn down obviously - but we also think it is a bit of lack of "talent" and guys that can PLAY IN SPACE.....They are last in the B12 in total offense barely over 300/game wtf and 2nd last in yds per play.....D has been less than its usual self and now for real like for real we see a small busload of DBs on the injury report......Baylor has not played the meat of their schedule yet and things are a bit inflated but have scored 56 66 70 63 66 62 45 and cannot see K St putting up much resistance we are not worried about Stidham at QB.

Summary. Lean Baylor at 17 or less.

mega

agree, Rodgers hasn't face an SEC defense or an SEC environment

[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS]

Baylor 17.5 Kansas St (69.5)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 16

Another game we are probably not interested in....They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy could have a field day here.....K St played 2 very very good games losing to okie st by 2 and tcu by 7....then proceeded to lose the next 2 by a combined score of 78-9....May have got worn down obviously - but we also think it is a bit of lack of "talent" and guys that can PLAY IN SPACE.....They are last in the B12 in total offense barely over 300/game wtf and 2nd last in yds per play.....D has been less than its usual self and now for real like for real we see a small busload of DBs on the injury report......Baylor has not played the meat of their schedule yet and things are a bit inflated but have scored 56 66 70 63 66 62 45 and cannot see K St putting up much resistance we are not worried about Stidham at QB.

Summary. Lean Baylor at 17 or less.

mega

buckbuckles  thanks a lot ! GL this wk

Harvard  thanks for the SMU intel awesome stuff - tend to agree with you bro

wordofmouth - thanks ! GL this wk

barney -  I will have to check out your MAC specials

Double  glad you like Ark bro - you are all timer

bunny

Geaux

Spartans - will add the iowa game to the list

trey , gman  cheers guys - glad you like Ark - hope they can start out decently and settle in to the flow of the game - GL

 

bunny

wahoo  gotta put 38492749837 make believe units on it

wordofmouth  very cool....Gonna be cheering for them want to see a b12 team in the playoff - GL

 

 

Whats this "church" place you speak of?

 

App St 12 Ark St (62)

Megalocks line 10

Sagarin 13

Tempted to try the doggie in this one will see if it heads up to 14 because that is what we would need here to have value imo....App St has the #1 D #1O and #1 rush D in the SunBelt....Meanwhile Ark St D is avg at best and their passing offense is 2nd last in the conference....Now what we do like for Ark St is 1) their D if it has a strength is stopping the run #3 in conf and that is App St bread and butter....2) This game is essentially the conf champ game provided each team can hold serve in relatively easy games remaining....12 points is a lot to give a team that has their QB getting back into game shape....Just not crazy about the fact that Ark St finds a way to score but have given up 37 35 31 27 34 last 5 games - their offense moves fast and the D ends up on the field a lot but still App St should cut through them like a knife thru butter Ark St will need some help in the turnover dept and they do have some players that can make things happen IN SPACE....Weather also looks very good so that helps the wolves imo.

Summary. No lean yet. Let's see what the line does.

mega

Miss St 8 Missouri (39)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 8

Going to stay clear of this one. We like the way Miss St has navigated the early part of their schedule and Dak has been a beast.....However they just finished a nice easy 3 game home stretch whipping troy la tech and Kentucky.....now comes a tough stretch - mizz not so much - but they finish with bama at ark and ole miss whoa.....What we are not crazy about for They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy is the fact that Miss St has played 2 SEC road games against worse Ds - scored 17 vs Aub and 17 vs AM....Meanwhile Mizz has not given up more than 21 all year despite the fact their D is on the field 56 minutes a game....All heart and well coached....Offense is a smelly turd Lock has nothing around him - the suspension of Mauk may even be a galvanizing factor who knows need to do some reading on that cannot imagine he was universally loved anyway.....Mizz has scored 3 6 3 last 3 games  hard to believe they have been that bad on offense.

Summary, Lean to under no lower than 38 but it will not make our official card,

mega

and I might add that Arky State has the worse Head Coach (Blake Anderson) in any sport and that goes for the world.

In all my years of watching sports at all levels I have never seen anyone so incompetent.