Posted:
#101
Good luck buddy, get that paper
NCAA week 10
Posted:
#102
I bet toledo under 61 just for you MEGA
-dropped passes
-holding penalties in the redzone
-missed Fg's
-long drives with out of bounds punts inside the 25 all night
- 1st and goal fumbles across the goal line for touchbacks
- last minute tornado bringing 14 inches of rain
bring on the madness 
.
Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Megalocks line 9
Sagarin 12
Let's get to the bad stuff first. The matchup between the Ole Miss passing game and the Arkansas pass D is a scary one. Ole Miss is going to have some success. Treadwell is going to be a handful. But we are getting 11 points - not saying Ole Miss is not better - or than the Hogs will win. They just have to stop the Rebels from going nuclear in the passing game.
It should be a game plan that works for Arkansas. Best to just run right at Ole Miss with the nice running game and OL....we also like THIS matchup....RB Collins has almost 1000 yds already and 12 TDs.....We are also big fans of QB Collins who has only thrown 5 int all year vs 15 TD and has been getting better.....They have had to get more creative with options in the passing game and it seems to be working. Numbers and Stats are all just that - numbers and stats - who knows - BUT - Arkansas leads the SEC in 3rd down conversion %....They are 8th in the NCAA in time of possession.....Think they can move the ball on Ole Miss and they do not turn the ball over a lot - #3 in the SEC in turnover margin and Ole Miss is #13
including 12 int from QB Kelly who we also like but seems more prone to "huh?" throws.
So again - not talking SU win - but in the context of +11......It just seems like a lot of points.....Last 6 games - if you exclude the New Mex St game - Ole Miss has not scored more than 27 points....27 10 24 23 27.....Having trouble in the RZ with mistakes and inability to run the ball effectively.....We think people still remember them putting up back to back 70s on the board vs 2 bad teams....but as the schedule has gotten tougher...The offense has found it tougher to score- yes they still go really fast - but not getting the points to show for it. 27 on Auburn last game. 23 the week before against AM at home when AM could not make a first down. No doubt Ole Miss gets some points - but fundamental football keeps this one closer than DD. We hope.
Last year 30-0 Ark win means basically nothing IMO b/c Ark D near the end of last yr was sick and this yr a more than a few notches down. Revenge? Well Ole Miss just want to win the game and move on - Pressure is on them to win out. Real pressure.
GL mega
Should also be noted that Ole Miss in a hurry up offense is without a bye for 10 weeks. I like this pick sir.
Also like Purdue -1. Vs Illinois
Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by NewJerseySoles:
Hey, what is the best site to bet on? I have a book, but sometimes I can't make it, and I have to wait till game day to make the bet. Rather just go on my phone and place a bet when I want. Any help would be appreciated from anyone. Just want a good site that is legit, always pays, and doesn't give a hard time paying people, thanks. And Mega keep it up, I don't comment but I always read, thanks!
Hey, what is the best site to bet on? I have a book, but sometimes I can't make it, and I have to wait till game day to make the bet. Rather just go on my phone and place a bet when I want. Any help would be appreciated from anyone. Just want a good site that is legit, always pays, and doesn't give a hard time paying people, thanks. And Mega keep it up, I don't comment but I always read, thanks!
My personal experience is stay away from Bovada, I requested a payout two months ago. They wrote me a phony check for payout, with no telephone number listed for verification purposes and that was not cashable. Two months later they are telling me they are waiting for a stop payment. Bookmaker is working for me.
Posted:
#109
Mega, how big is the downgrade at RT to Tyler Jones? The guy decommitted from Miss. St to attend NC St. so maybe he has something to prove here?
My takeaways to add to your analysis on NC State, they're top 15 in passing yards allowed which should bode well against Fadule. I do worry about Fadule's dual threat ability, Lamar Jackson and Hinton torched them earlier in the season. Watson didn't run all over NC state but he did total 6 TDs.
BC is #1 in total yds allowed. NC State is #10.
NC is top 5 in the defensive turnover margin.
BC averages 7 defensive penalties a game while NC state is ranked 9th.
Fadule seems like a scary wildcard, but the signs do point towards NC State. I would like to hear an analysis of their matchup last year that BC won 30-14. What's different this year? The NC state offense is largely the same and could be without Dayes. BC's run game is worse than last year without Hilliman and maybe Rouse.
Lastly, your analysis is much appreciated Mega. Just adding to the conversation.
Posted:
#110
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
I bet toledo under 61 just for you MEGA
I bet toledo under 61 just for you MEGA
-dropped passes
-holding penalties in the redzone
-missed Fg's
-long drives with out of bounds punts inside the 25 all night
- 1st and goal fumbles across the goal line for touchbacks
- last minute tornado bringing 14 inches of rain
bring on the madness
YES ! finally you are catching on to the beauty of unders. If you feel like stabbing yourself during the game - DON'T - the pain becomes a sick pleasure
Posted:
#111
Nevada 4.5 Fresno St (55)
Megalocks line 4
Sagarin 2 
On the surface it appears that Nevada is the play - they are not very trustworthy but do have a very good run game that should be able to shred through the Fresno D - a D that has not done much right this year - in fact - Fresno has not done much of anything in fine fashion this year. Now what we will say just to warn They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy is that Nevada has just come off 5 pretty easy games - buff unlv new mex Wyoming Hawaii - this is 6th easy one in a row - Fresno - well we are really not sure how bad they are - I mean like for real are they bad or really bad ? Of the 7 FBS teams they have played they got ole miss Utah Utah st sd st - yeeeeseh that is 4 tough ones - @SJ and @AF not a piece of cake either - but they did beat unlv at home. Sooooooooo ? We cannot call out the dog here due to the run game advantage of Nevada but not going to lay the points....FWIW Fresno has won the last 3 meetings handily.
Summary. Nah.
mega
Posted:
#112
THREAD SUMMARY
picks
NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)
Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)
ORDER of appearance for write-ups
NC State / BC (post 38)
Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)
Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)
Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)
Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)
Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)
Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)
UP NEXT Friday games
Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by treesap90:
Mega, how big is the downgrade at RT to Tyler Jones? The guy decommitted from Miss. St to attend NC St. so maybe he has something to prove here?
Mega, how big is the downgrade at RT to Tyler Jones? The guy decommitted from Miss. St to attend NC St. so maybe he has something to prove here?
My takeaways to add to your analysis on NC State, they're top 15 in passing yards allowed which should bode well against Fadule. I do worry about Fadule's dual threat ability, Lamar Jackson and Hinton torched them earlier in the season. Watson didn't run all over NC state but he did total 6 TDs.
BC is #1 in total yds allowed. NC State is #10.
NC is top 5 in the defensive turnover margin.
BC averages 7 defensive penalties a game while NC state is ranked 9th.
Fadule seems like a scary wildcard, but the signs do point towards NC State. I would like to hear an analysis of their matchup last year that BC won 30-14. What's different this year? The NC state offense is largely the same and could be without Dayes. BC's run game is worse than last year without Hilliman and maybe Rouse.
Lastly, your analysis is much appreciated Mega. Just adding to the conversation.
Thanks for the input buddy 
ALWAYS love to chat about the matchups.....THE big difference is last year BC had T Murphy at QB who ran for over 1200 Y !! In the NC St game alone he had 132 rushing and 2 TD and over 100 y passing....The guy was very good - and their OL was better.....Once Wade got hurt this yr - at least he had promise - they have NOBODY at QB....Their OL is young and not very good yet - no scary RB or WR. No FG K. Now I do not want to get too crazy with my write-up because it is just one game and we bet it the same as any other game but for real like for real BC cannot move the ball it is embarrassing. Now their D - sure they can make this game interesting it is great vs the run.....But NC St would literally have to give the game away to lose BUT that IS possible which is why we recommend so higher than -4. 1/2 unit over -3. As far as Fadule? He is a walk on FR with no exp until last game. Watched it all. He is trying and will run tough but there is NO threat of a passing game and he is not Carl Lewis. Just my two cents bro.
Again - BC can obviously cover anything can happen. But we still think NC St could cover -2 or -3 even if their QB was out.
GL this wk
Posted:
#114
UrbanI think I remember you going postal last yr during the Ark St ULL game when your boy Anderson tried a fake punt from his own 12 yd line.
Bizzo 
MJones - Big 10 is on the list
XplicitAX glad you like Ark. Great point about 10 str weeks. Also REALLY like your Purdue pick
GL
Skip
Barney / Boomer - GL with Toledo cannot disagree we think a pass in order for us but cannot wait to watch
Posted:
#119
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
How I wish I had your memory, UrbanI think I remember you going postal last yr during the Ark St ULL game when your boy Anderson tried a fake punt from his own 12 yd line.
as I have a hard time remembering what I did yesterday, moreless what someone else did a year ago. Fricking Anderson did practically the same fricking thing this year on 4th down and 3 on his own 5 yard line and going for it, and failing, and then I think it was last week he made another bonehead decision but I cannot remember what the "F" it was. SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
Posted:
#123
Mega - Request Line - Temple at SMU
Temple held ND - Prosise to 25 yards last week. Owls got 2 INTs also.
Sagarin has game at 20!
Current line is 12.5.
Yes Temple RB is banged up......but 8 points??
SOS
Temple - 97
SMU - 48
Misc.
I realize this is a let down spot for Temple but, they are 7-1 and these games mean something to them
Computers have this game at 35-15 Owls.
SMU is 3-8 ATS at home (last 11).
SMU gives up 43 points a game.
Common Opponents in Oct
ECU
Temple Win 24-14 (Oct 22)
SMU Loss - 23-49 (Oct. 3)
Posted:
#125
Rice 6.5 UTEP (60)
Megalocks line 6
Sagarin 7.5
Hard to support either team in this one - This is the worst Rice team in a while - but as luck would have it in the CUSA this yr - they are still on track to 6 or 7 wins which really shows you how bad things are in that conf....Both teams Ds are in fact at the bottom of CUSA in most meaningful categories and both teams like to turn it over so sounds like a great game to bet
......Rice does have one statistical adv and that is that they have the #2 run game in the conf and will be able to run on that utep front 7....They also have the edge at QB although Jackson does not have much help this year.....UTEP pretty ordinary at QB but they like to slow things down at home and if Rice gets caught sleeping like FAU did 2 wks ago when UTEP beat em....you never know what might happen.
Summary. lean under 59 or higher. no lean on side.
mega
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