NCAA week 10

 YES ! finally you are catching on to the beauty of unders. If you feel like stabbing yourself during the game - DON'T - the pain becomes a sick pleasure

Nevada 4.5 Fresno St (55)

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 2

On the surface it appears that Nevada is the play - they are not very trustworthy but do have a very good run game that should be able to shred through the Fresno D - a D that has not done much right this year - in fact - Fresno has not done much of anything in fine fashion this year. Now what we will say just to warn They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy is that Nevada has just come off 5 pretty easy games - buff unlv new mex Wyoming Hawaii - this is 6th easy one in a row - Fresno - well we are really not sure how bad they are - I mean like for real are they bad or really bad ?  Of the 7 FBS teams they have played they got ole miss Utah Utah st sd st - yeeeeseh that is 4 tough ones - @SJ and @AF not a piece of cake either - but they did beat unlv at home. Sooooooooo ? We cannot call out the dog here due to the run game advantage of Nevada but not going to lay the points....FWIW Fresno has won the last 3 meetings handily.

Summary. Nah.

mega

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)

Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)

Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)

Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)

Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)

UP NEXT   Friday games

Thanks for the input buddy  ALWAYS love to chat about the matchups.....THE big difference is last year BC had T Murphy at QB who ran for over 1200 Y !! In the NC St game alone he had 132 rushing and 2 TD and over 100 y passing....The guy was very good - and their OL was better.....Once Wade got hurt this yr - at least he had promise - they have NOBODY at QB....Their OL is young and not very good yet - no scary RB or WR. No FG K. Now I do not want to get too crazy with my write-up because it is just one game and we bet it the same as any other game but for real like for real BC cannot move the ball it is embarrassing. Now their D - sure they can make this game interesting it is great vs the run.....But NC St would literally have to give the game away to lose BUT that IS possible which is why we recommend so higher than -4. 1/2 unit over -3. As far as Fadule? He is a walk on FR with no exp until last game. Watched it all. He is trying and will run tough but there is NO threat of a passing game and he is not Carl Lewis. Just my two cents bro.

Again - BC can obviously cover anything can happen. But we still think NC St could cover -2 or -3 even if their QB was out.

GL this wk

UrbanI think I remember you going postal last yr during the Ark St ULL game when your boy Anderson tried a fake punt from his own 12 yd line.

Bizzo

MJones - Big 10 is on the list

XplicitAX  glad you like Ark. Great point about 10 str weeks. Also REALLY like your Purdue pick GL

Skip

Barney / Boomer - GL with Toledo  cannot disagree we think a pass in order for us but cannot wait to watch

Mega - Request Line - Temple at SMU

Temple held ND - Prosise to 25 yards last week.  Owls got 2 INTs also.

Sagarin has game at 20! 

Current line is 12.5.

Yes Temple RB is banged up......but 8 points??

SOS

Temple - 97

SMU - 48

Misc.

I realize this is a let down spot for Temple but, they are 7-1 and these games mean something to them

Computers have this game at 35-15  Owls.

SMU is 3-8 ATS at home (last 11).

SMU gives up 43 points a game.

Common Opponents in Oct

ECU

Temple Win 24-14  (Oct 22)

SMU Loss - 23-49  (Oct. 3)

Rice 6.5 UTEP (60)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 7.5

Hard to support either team in this one - This is the worst Rice team in a while - but as luck would have it in the CUSA this yr - they are still on track to 6 or 7 wins which really shows you how bad things are in that conf....Both teams Ds are in fact at the bottom of CUSA in most meaningful categories and both teams like to turn it over so sounds like a great game to bet......Rice does have one statistical adv and that is that they have the #2 run game in the conf and will be able to run on that utep front 7....They also have the edge at QB although Jackson does not have much help this year.....UTEP pretty ordinary at QB but they like to slow things down at home and if Rice gets caught sleeping like FAU did 2 wks ago when UTEP beat em....you never know what might happen.

Summary. lean under 59 or higher. no lean on side.

mega