NCAA week 9

partles will see what we can do

dodgy

THREAD SUMMARY

PLAYS

Florida TT under 24.5 (would play down to 24)

(lots of possibilities for adds - watching the line moves)

Table of Contents for the Write-ups (i.e. the ORDER)

Thursday games (6)

Friday games (4)

SEC (5)

AAC (5)

UP NEXT

REQUEST LINE ( 5 games )

REQUEST LINE  - Megalocks - "All night like lumberjack"

FIU 2 FAU (52)

Megalocks line 3

Sagarin 3.76

We cannot sit here and make up reasons to take Florida Atlantic. So go for it if you like this game. We are not touching the game and will just give you a couple of things to think about if playing FIU......remember - just saying....not saying.....just saying

This is a game between two teams that Sagarin ranks #119 (FIU) and #156 (FAU)....That alone should make you want to run far far away unless the spread was more than a FG either way. Whether or not you want to believe it - this is indeed a rivalry game and means a lot to both teams.....FIU needs 2 more wins to be bowl eligible and if they lose this one - they would have to beat either WKU or Marshall on the road - have fun with that.....Understanding that FAU is BAD - we get it - here is a list of the teams that FIU has beaten and where Sagarin ranks them in the pecking order of FBS and FCS teams

UCF - 139

NC Central - 211 (6 spots ahead of Sacred Heart - like for real)

UTEP - 161

Old Dominion - 163

So to summarize. 1. FAU is no good. 2. FIU has beaten one team that is theoretically better than FAU. Also note that the line has dropped below 3 so books are willing to let you bet the GDP of Denmark on FAU -2 or -2.5. Free money.

FIU has a better offense and better defense....But FAU would love to ruin their season with a win and get bragging rights....teams are not that far apart - will not even mention HF so we do not create tension in the thread - but FIU has played worse outside of their home stadium.

Summary. Talent = FIU. We are not debating that. But per the above analysis - we are gonna take a pass.

mega

1andonly

johnny  GL - lean to TCU pretty strongly as well - may take the entire game to play out but eventually I think they get the cover - we are gonna hope for an in-game play....GL with your MACtion play ! Miami Ohio takes BALLS LIKE DAT  we will cheer you on GL

REQUEST LINE .....Megalocks - "Just don't ask us to pick an East Carolina game"

Michigan 13 Minnesota (38)

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 15.5

Michigan invented a new way to lose a football game and you have to respect that - but you also have to respect that before the Sparty game they had a 5 game stretch giving up 7 7 0 0 0 - 14pts in a 5-game stretch - and now they get Minnesota who is scrappy but also has the same kind of offense that Michigan can shut down with their #1 ranked D.....Both teams off a bye.....Minny gets a new HC and we need to do some reading on what the general feeling is around the program - coaching change plays can reap big rewards in any sport even the ones that look ugly.....Minny seems a bit banged up as well but think that their D can handle Michigan for the most part will be tough cover for Michigan if Minny does not beat themselves with turnovers.......Sadly they rank 100 in turnover margin FWIW.

Summary. Lean under. Lean Minny but would want 14. Still looking at this bad boy may have a play tomorrow.

mega

I do like that one my friend !!  nice work as always

thanks everyone

gonna post up a pick in a sec then know we owe more hits on the request line will get to those by the end of the afternoon !

Bridge - you nailed that Marshall game....You are moving lines and changing lives like us now we have to wait for the line to go back up think you have a winner....GL

Skip - thanks for the Cal intel

Bridge - lean to Cuse and the under now that Cook is out but have not looked at it in detail yet

Christoph - not a parlay guy but definitely lean penn st and cuse. GL !

Golden - ECU game done ! GL this wk buddy

lggles - thanks

Xplicit - sorry do not know anything about Tenn Martin; however your situational logic makes sense without even digging - GL !

Next pick

San Diego St -3

(still some -110 out there but do see some -115s)

1. SD St is red hot. 4-0 in conf. Just beat Utah St 48-14  yes +4 in turnovers helped but they steamrolled them for 336 yds rushing waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaatt??....their D has allowed 89 251 148 239 yards the last 4 games and the run game is just working so well right now.

2. Bad news. Col St cannot stop the run.

3. SD St QB improving has not thrown an int since Sept 12 and 5 TD 0 int last 4 games....With that run game working he has the ability to hit a couple big MATRICULATION shots down the field in the passing game.....Just enough to keep the D honest.

4. Col St has a nice balanced offense but the SD St D is allowing less than 3 yds per carry and are very healthy for this one....Ok so now Col St is one dimensional. Not good. SD St has more int than td passes given up.

5. SD St 26-9 in conf under Long and they travel well with this style of football.

If they keep winning they can go undefeated in Conf play and host the Conf champ game. Maybe one of the best SD St seasons ever. With that comes pressure....do not think this is the game where they will seize up because they should be able to run the offense without a problem. Our worry? as we noted last wk - they have not had a bye and a trip to Hawaii in there Sooooooooo you could argue they are worn out but we are going with the premise - which may be wrong - that they see the bye week after the game and mentally must be saying one more big game boys and then we can rest up a bit.

Special shutout to our long time CONTRIBUTOR BandosWB who helped ALERT us to this one.

GL. play safe.

MEGA

THREAD SUMMARY

PLAYS

Florida TT under 24.5 (would play down to 24)

San Diego St -3 (would not play any higher)

Table of Contents for the Write-ups (i.e. the ORDER)

Thursday games (6)

Friday games (4)

SEC (5)

AAC (5)

Request line - FAU / FIU

Request line - Michigan / Minnesota

SD St / Col St

UP NEXT

REQUEST LINE ( 4 games still to come )

 JVH !