NCAA week 9

waiing foryour special crack pipe MEGA.GL this week

I like NC tomorrow

PS

Mega - been following for a long time. your capping/insight is STRONG, keep up the good work, its MUCH appreciated.

Temple grad here so cant wait to see you break down a Temple game. I just hope they keep i close. The city is wild right now with ESPN getting here...

Navy 7 South Florida (51)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 10.5

Don't look now but Navy is the undefeated sleeper in the AAC West Division and they still get a shot at Memphis and Houston before it is all over....They are sliding under the radar first year in conference due to some impressive starts by other AAC teams....The interesting thing about Navy - and you know we are big fans of their football program especially the star QB - their offense just seems a notch down this yr - last 4 games total offense 343 387 340 291Y and last wk were outgained by TULANE significantly and were helped out by +3 in turnovers....K Reynolds was held to a mind-boggling 38 yards rushing and while Tulane may have had a great game plan - for real guys - that is a pretty sketchy offensive performance regardless of weather etc......So Flo has been playing some good football and are in yr 3 of the new HC regime and look to have a nice future ahead....been trying to find spots to play them but the lines are always sharp...Last wk they went without their top player M Mack at RB - and QB Flowers ran for over 200 in an easy win over SMU.....Their D is solid and held Memphis to 24......Navy traditionally a bad HFav ATS (tho 2-1 this yr) and USF is 7-3 ATS L10 as road dog......Wish we were getting a bit more value - opened higher but as we said - were not around Sunday to catch the good number.

Summary. Lean to So Flo at 7 or better. On the short list to add to the card but really want 7.5 doubt we will get it now.

mega

Tulsa 3.5 SMU (76.5)

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 3.5

Line looks about right to us....Tulsa is a pretty good offensive team but their defense is also offensive just struggling big time and at different times this yr have given up 773 638 704Y  and now they go on a road to face a well coached team that can score - only one game less than 23 points....SMU D is even worse just do not have the depth - have given up 56 56 48 49 49 38 in games this yr but we think they can move the ball and keep this one interesting Tulsa is not above throwing out a stinker....Will need to check the status of their #1 RB and #2 WR if BOTH are out we would definitely not play Tulsa but they are both probably ok to go need to read some more .....Tulsa needs 3 wins to get to bowl eligibility and have 3/5 games left as very winnable but if they lose this one would have to beat Navy or Cincy.

Summary. No leanage. Gonna keep tabs on it but more than likely a total pass.

mega

Memphis 32 Tulane (64)

Megalocks line 26

Sagarin 29

No doubt paying a bit of a premium to play Memphis here - of course they could still cover the way Lynch is playing at QB....Tulane outgained Navy last wk watttttt ? Lee was back at QB turnovers killed them - that and the fact that they really have marginal talent on offense - but their D is not completely horrible think they have the potential to keep this one within the number given that Memphis D is pretty weak and they have the 3-pack of Navy Houston Temple on deck....No doubt Memphis wants to get out to a big lead and then try and rest anyone that could use some snaps off to get ready for the big finale to the season.....Tulane as much as they look SUCCULENT from a value perspective - need to understand that they have scored 10 7 14 last 3 games - 7 and 10 pts two other times....Just a bit too risky for a full recommendation.

Summary. Lean Tulane +32 or better.

mega

Notre Dame 10.5 Temple (50)

Megalocks line 8

Sagarin 9.5

Very interesting game to handicap and we can't wait for this bad boy to get rolling on Saturday night.....Philly MOBSTERS must be loving all the SWEET betting ACTION going down in the area....Will most likely lead to transfers of BIG BUCKS between people - while others will suffer a mysterious clubbing with a drywall hammer when they cannot pay their debt. Good times.

The toughest thing to get a handle on is Temple's strength of schedule and what it means - if anything. Notre Dame backers can point to their one-loss record against a very tough set of opponents and a two-point loss to an excellent Clemson team on the road...ND backers also know that the way to get at Temple is to MATRICULATE in the passing game because they can be exposed by good QBs - and make no mistake - ND can throw the ball and have weapons.....Temple pass eff D is rated #9 in the NCAA have 12 int.....They also have 17 sacks BUT 10 of those were in week 1 vs Penn St.....Their run D is very good - but any way you cut it - we think that ND will move the ball effectively for at least parts of the game and Temple is going to have to score 20+ IMO to win this game.

Now what Temple does have going for it - other than Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy  is a good OL that should be able to run against ND run D rated #83 now they did play Navy and GT - but still allow 4.79 yards a carry and Tulane just shut down Navy so let's not think that ND D as it stands with the missing projected starters that they can just blow up everything Temple wants to do....Temple will also be able to run IMO and Walker while inaccurate at times is going to have time to make some plays down the field....Christopher is a nice weapon at WR - overall the WR drop too many balls but we know this - Walker is going to have some time to throw - ND not sacking the QB at a high rate and the Temple OL been very good at pass blocking.

Summary. The point spread is always the great equalizer. One cannot ignore the ND schedule and how they have played BUT they are laying DD here and we do see some value in Temple here.....Gonna wait to see if this gets to 11 and reassess. Also lean to the over a bit which sounds nuts but also going to wait and see if the total drops maybe can get a better number.

GL mega

THREAD SUMMARY

PLAYS

Florida TT under 24.5 (would play down to 24)

(lots of possibilities for adds - watching the line moves)

Table of Contents for the Write-ups (i.e. the ORDER)

Thursday games (6)

Friday games (4)

SEC (5)

AAC (5)

UP NEXT

REQUEST LINE ( 5 games )

thanks a lot everyone really appreciate it !

doc

ninja

BWS ....like that bye week stat for TCU and WV....definite lean to TCU in this one but will just be a fan and maybe look for an in game play. thanks and GL

Wahoo - thanks for helping out in here !!

LoveCFB - you make a good point; About one of every 5 plays are team totals for us so far this year - Now what we are trying to do is limit those b/c we know some of you cannot get em - and at a minimum we release them as late in the week as possible after early line moves so things are more settled...And we always tell you the worst number you should take if your book opens up the team totals late. GL !

totru

bart - thanks  GL

cskeete - can never argue with a Tex Tech over ! GL

warcameagle ....Yes we only have one play so far but what that means is that we only like one game of the ones we have CAPPED in DETAIL.....Our process is #1 - Look at all the games when they open on Sunday and try and grab one or two that look good based on pure value.....Were not around this Sunday to do that. #2 Then go through the games one by one in detail.....Because we do it this way we often do not even get a chance to look at about a third of the card but time is SCARCE ! wish we had more time but only want to recommend plays if we have had the time to put in 100% effort and look at every possible angle to a game. GL pal !

BreakDBookie

Bloodshot

Storm -  GL with UNC - on the fence on that one

Go Noles - SMU game writeup done - GL !

chefchino - good question......When we look at a game - we know a lot of people hate this - but we only make one play on a given game and play what we feel is the highest percentage play.....For example - last wk we took the Ole Miss TT under as opposed to Tex AM +6 because we liked both but thought that if the game went a different way than we thought - it was more likely that Ole Miss would score less than 35 vs Texas AM staying within 6 points. Most of the time it does not matter - but in our experience the last number of years - we are correct 3 times more often than not when picking the safer play. This wk - it was basically a coin toss between game under and Florida TT under - but the percentages slightly favor (only according to us) the Florida TT vs the game under....GL !

Area51 - thanks !!

lgglez - I lean to Cuse and Tulsa (would not lay 3.5 tho) and not a fan of taking ole miss. However - go with YOUR gut - we do not have a strong take on any of the 3 just stating mild preferences. GL !

getexcited

Featherstone - thanks very much ....Enjoy the Temple game and atmosphere - very excited to watch that one ! Write-up was posted about an hour ago - GL !

BCBoys - TCU write-up was done on Monday I think - should be early in thread - GL !

Still think he is gonna be a game time decision and do not think we may know until closer to game time. I am assuming he will go but like you said I think Rumph is out. Either way - gonna be a tough cover for WVU I like the team but TCU is just playing at such a high level on offense. GL !