NCAA week 9

First play

Florida TT under 24.5

write-up next .....will also get caught up on responding to your questions had to get some work done.

WAHOO

you are the KING buddy we do NOT want that responsibility - I say we give it to TRAIN and offer to be his humble servants. If something goes wrong ? Off with his head

Man - tough card - we will eventually get to our 4-5 picks but missed some good openers now just chasing lines but have to say - the lines are all moving away from where we want it is getting frustrating

Glad you agree on Florida TT under - or least agree it will be a low scoring game. I really enjoy that game every year......Thanks for the heads up on T AM....Been reading a lot about their QB situation and the internal disagreement - real or perceived - about the QB situation....I thought they could be an outsider to win the West this yr and funny how their D has done their part IMO but the offense has struggled with all that talent at QB and WR.

GL bro !!!

WAHOO

you are the KING buddy we do NOT want that responsibility - I say we give it to TRAIN and offer to be his humble servants. If something goes wrong ? Off with his head

Man - tough card - we will eventually get to our 4-5 picks but missed some good openers now just chasing lines but have to say - the lines are all moving away from where we want it is getting frustrating

Glad you agree on Florida TT under - or least agree it will be a low scoring game. I really enjoy that game every year......Thanks for the heads up on T AM....Been reading a lot about their QB situation and the internal disagreement - real or perceived - about the QB situation....I thought they could be an outsider to win the West this yr and funny how their D has done their part IMO but the offense has struggled with all that talent at QB and WR.

GL bro !!!

Houston 11.5 Vandy 49.5

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 14

There is always a risk that when you talk negatively about the darling team around town that someone is napalm your house and then get serious about things......but rest assured this is NOT negative talk just some facts......Houston is undefeated and their QB is fantastic one of our fav players to watch right now - 10 TD passes and 15 rushing TD.....D is #1 in turnover margin and they are crushing and killing.....HOWEVER......our AAC INSIDERS brought up this interesting factoid that we are sure you will see on your TV sets this week.....Houston has beat nobody with a winning record - but it gets better - the combined record of their opponents this year is 13 wins and 37 LOSSES....For the non-math inclined that is a waaaaaaaaaaaaat? .260 win percentage....Think about some crappy middle infielder in the minor leagues hitting .260 with no power....THAT my friends is not an indictment of Houston - just saying not saying but just saying that they at some point are going to get smacked in the mouth yes they beat Louisville but they are 3-4 and not great......Houston is still a bit of an unknown to us - yes they are good but how good? We do know that for all of Vandy's challenges on offense - only one game >17 points and that was vs Austin Peay - their D has been excellent holding WK to 14 and ole miss to 27 on the road...so well coached but they turn the ball over a lot and that is bad when playing Houston.

Interesting tidbit that our Vandy INSIDERS found out was that Vandy is planning to go (at least they say now) 2 QB system to give Houston more to think about - McCrary brings the running threat and FR Shurmur brings that pro style element. Now of course neither have developed yet....But Vandy is #8 in time of possession and #3 in 3rd down D - if they can stay -1 or better in turnover margin we say they cover.

Summary. Lean Vandy but want 13+ minimum. If it gets to 14 we will likely officially add it to our card. No rush yet.

mega

(update: 103% of tickets are on Houston according to some make-believe-betting stat published by some shady website that gives kickbacks from shady sportsbooks)

 WAHOO

Ninja / lgglez - I use B365 / Sports Interaction / BOL for team totals....BOL usually comes out day of game or day before. I find that using BOL would probably still work since unless the game totals or spread change a lot you should still get a good number. GL !

TCU 14 W Virginia (75)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 13

Line looks about right to us....After beating up GS, Liberty and Maryland - WV has struggled so far in B12 play dropping 3 straight and 2 of them convincingly - now the B12 is pretty deep this year and those were not easy games - but the problem is now they get the other monster called TCU with an offense that is on absolute fire - after the Minny game early on have scored 70 56 55 50 52 45....WV D getting scorched through the air and our BIG 12 INSIDERS tell us they will be without 3 members of their secondary for this one and that will indeed be a challenge for them.....Now we will say that the last 3 games have been all close and 2 of them went to OT......The issue there is that in only one of those games was the spread higher than 3.5 soooooooooooo not sure it is reasonable to expect a magical cover just based on past history....Now we do think WV can move the ball because TCU D has been pretty soft this year and they can be had....any team with a D that soft really puts pressure on its offense to cover the spread of 14.

Summary - No lean on this one. Spread and total look about right to us.

mega