I am disgusted by this brush fire of garbage games this week, but it's always the least watchable ones that seem like good betting opportunities
Playing the Hoos tonight but normally hate ACC as a rule. I just can't get past crowd will be rocking guy on my way to the Boise window.
I actually like the Badgers to run over the Rainbow warriors as they fly in from Mars...the 3-4 defense gave OSU trouble b/c of a short week and Urban still trying out player rotations, but Bucky will run it down their throats IMO....
Also playing the Cal/UW Over, since the Bears seem unstoppable but play lousy D.
Also wondering how Iowa can be 24+ better than ANYONE
BOL as always
great post buddy ! GL this wk
sadly we may roll some of our Memphis in game degenerate cash in with Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy and then probably STAB OURSELVES in the FACE wondering why we did it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers:
Great stuff by the crack staff as always MEGA
I am disgusted by this brush fire of garbage games this week, but it's always the least watchable ones that seem like good betting opportunities
Playing the Hoos tonight but normally hate ACC as a rule. I just can't get past crowd will be rocking guy on my way to the Boise window.
I actually like the Badgers to run over the Rainbow warriors as they fly in from Mars...the 3-4 defense gave OSU trouble b/c of a short week and Urban still trying out player rotations, but Bucky will run it down their throats IMO....
Also playing the Cal/UW Over, since the Bears seem unstoppable but play lousy D.
Also wondering how Iowa can be 24+ better than ANYONE
BOL as always
great post buddy ! GL this wk
sadly we may roll some of our Memphis in game degenerate cash in with Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy and then probably STAB OURSELVES in the FACE wondering why we did it.
Hey Mega - Love all your hard work, especially enjoy hitting from the Crack Pipe - let's make it three in a row!
If the All Request Super Hotline is still open, I would love your take on 377 Florida Atlantic -10.0 @ 378 Charlotte.
ALL REQUEST HOTLINE IS ON THE AIR
FAU 10.5 Charlotte (65)
Megalocks line 13
Just when you thought you had issues - in comes a dedicated subscriber wanting to know about FAU / Charlotte Well done you freakshows.....well done
Hard to back the fav here - they may get back their #1 QB - but Driskell (not THAT Driskel ) has looked ok....FAU desparately needs a win 0-3 but win this conf game - then a bye - still time to turn things around...they just get in their own way so much just cant bet them - blew lead to Tulsa gave up 600Y in OT loss, gave up over 500Y in Miami loss - then outgained Buffalo and QB Veal Licata 490-290 but 5 turnovers did them - esp when buffalo returned THREE for TD.....Charlotte a total unknown - beat Ga St yippee then Pookydoody St - then blasted 73-14 by MTSU used 3 QB and turned it over 7 times do not know what the SAM HILL is going on there at all and too be honest - we did not sick our research team on this one screams no play to us BUT.....
Summary - if you had to play the game - have to take FAU any team that gives up 70+ and looks bad doing it the previous wk cannot be trusted.....even if it is the first home game with an FBS visitor.
mega "because we are one with the people"
Thanks Mega - Friends for life, that's what I say! Live long and prosper
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:
Hey Mega - Love all your hard work, especially enjoy hitting from the Crack Pipe - let's make it three in a row!
If the All Request Super Hotline is still open, I would love your take on 377 Florida Atlantic -10.0 @ 378 Charlotte.
ALL REQUEST HOTLINE IS ON THE AIR
FAU 10.5 Charlotte (65)
Megalocks line 13
Just when you thought you had issues - in comes a dedicated subscriber wanting to know about FAU / Charlotte Well done you freakshows.....well done
Hard to back the fav here - they may get back their #1 QB - but Driskell (not THAT Driskel ) has looked ok....FAU desparately needs a win 0-3 but win this conf game - then a bye - still time to turn things around...they just get in their own way so much just cant bet them - blew lead to Tulsa gave up 600Y in OT loss, gave up over 500Y in Miami loss - then outgained Buffalo and QB Veal Licata 490-290 but 5 turnovers did them - esp when buffalo returned THREE for TD.....Charlotte a total unknown - beat Ga St yippee then Pookydoody St - then blasted 73-14 by MTSU used 3 QB and turned it over 7 times do not know what the SAM HILL is going on there at all and too be honest - we did not sick our research team on this one screams no play to us BUT.....
Summary - if you had to play the game - have to take FAU any team that gives up 70+ and looks bad doing it the previous wk cannot be trusted.....even if it is the first home game with an FBS visitor.
mega "because we are one with the people"
Thanks Mega - Friends for life, that's what I say! Live long and prosper
billyh - we do not participate in covers contests that is why you see no results with our profile/covers space
dontbookme thx man GL today
bullet
woodshed - liking those picks you had Washington nailed in the thread early in the week now that puppy sitting below 3 - Way to move lines and change lives ....Susbsribers are still talking about your Texas TT over last wk and how your team nailed Cal at exactly 45 pts....Like the Minn TT under especially GL freak
Rico
We think we have one more play gonna post it in a sec just had to throw up thinking about it
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thanks everyone appreciate it
jack ryan love it - GL this wk bro
billyh - we do not participate in covers contests that is why you see no results with our profile/covers space
dontbookme thx man GL today
bullet
woodshed - liking those picks you had Washington nailed in the thread early in the week now that puppy sitting below 3 - Way to move lines and change lives ....Susbsribers are still talking about your Texas TT over last wk and how your team nailed Cal at exactly 45 pts....Like the Minn TT under especially GL freak
Rico
We think we have one more play gonna post it in a sec just had to throw up thinking about it
thank you Mega, what are the lowest numbers you wold do for the florida total, ball st & texas a&m...
thanks again
Hey buddy
Ball St - seems like we moved the line again .....I would really want 20 but take half-size no worse than +18.5....Tex AM I would still take it at 6.5 but no higher - if you really like them consider taking their TT over or ML parlay them SU with another team you like.....Florida total too low now IMO - again - consider taking a TT under if you really like one of those teams to get held to under 24 points. GL !
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Quote Originally Posted by gqsmuv:
thank you Mega, what are the lowest numbers you wold do for the florida total, ball st & texas a&m...
thanks again
Hey buddy
Ball St - seems like we moved the line again .....I would really want 20 but take half-size no worse than +18.5....Tex AM I would still take it at 6.5 but no higher - if you really like them consider taking their TT over or ML parlay them SU with another team you like.....Florida total too low now IMO - again - consider taking a TT under if you really like one of those teams to get held to under 24 points. GL !
We see the records and the stats. If that is what you are worried about - and rightly so - then read no further and move along. If we just cut and pasted statistics and the like then anyone could argue against this one.
Rationale. As always - any one point can be argued - but we build a case and make our decision based on the totality of the evidence as we interpret it.
1. New Mexico OL is a mess. Our international scouts tell us the interior of the line is still getting pushed around and not even close to playing as a unit. NM avg 300+/game rushing last 3 yrs - this yr 249 including games against Miss Val St and freaking Tulsa who we still believe only plays 6 guys on defense....they are also averaging more than a yard per carry less than last yr at 5.1/pop and stud RB Pressley has 145Y in 3 games.
2. Why is this happening? Well OL is beat up and not playing well. Also the 2-QB system is not working they are adjusting to throwing more and it is not working b/c they do not have the personnel. When they run and use the running QB - OL hurts and he is not a great passer - When they pass (guy is not a triple option guy) he has no targets other than one player with more than 5 receptions and the OL hurts here as well. Bottom line - NO IDENTITY this yr they are struggling.
3. Wyoming lost to an FCS team wk 1. Got down had to pass. Lost to a bad team. Zero excuse. Week 2 they were without their starting QB - ran for over 400Y but with crap Qbs were one dimensional and lost to EM at home. Now we stayed clear of fading Wyoming last wk figuring any team that can run for 400 against anyone including EM is probably doing something right....Well they outgained Wash St on the road and the QB and ground game looked decent. They got tired in the 2nd half but that was their best showing by far. QB 60% 4 td 1 int and healthy this wk. RB Hill over 400Y and avg over 8/pop. They have balanced - pro set run/pass and an identity and can mix it up.
4. Coaching. Former 3-time FCS Natty Champ winning HC in yr 2 of his system building vs Snake Oil Salesman trying to change things up and transition into something that their personnel is not suited to yet. Our investigative reporting unit also notes that there is a lot of FIRE Davie talk going on including several ex players making social media waves. This is probably nothing - but it does not help.
5. Intangibles. Wyoming has non-conf matchup next wk; NMex has their big rival NM St next wk. New Mexico is 2-28 SU in their last 30 conference gamesTwo wins since the Carter administration......Last 3 meetings in Wy - Wy won all 3 38-31 31 -10 and 37-13
6. we are getting points. not giving them. +3.5 seems tasty.
REMEMBER - A HUGE WRITEUP MEANS NOTHING We often compose pages of BS that turns out into but as always we feel we owe it to folks to know we have thought this through and right or wrong we are on this BAD BOY
GL mega
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adding
Wyoming +3.5
We see the records and the stats. If that is what you are worried about - and rightly so - then read no further and move along. If we just cut and pasted statistics and the like then anyone could argue against this one.
Rationale. As always - any one point can be argued - but we build a case and make our decision based on the totality of the evidence as we interpret it.
1. New Mexico OL is a mess. Our international scouts tell us the interior of the line is still getting pushed around and not even close to playing as a unit. NM avg 300+/game rushing last 3 yrs - this yr 249 including games against Miss Val St and freaking Tulsa who we still believe only plays 6 guys on defense....they are also averaging more than a yard per carry less than last yr at 5.1/pop and stud RB Pressley has 145Y in 3 games.
2. Why is this happening? Well OL is beat up and not playing well. Also the 2-QB system is not working they are adjusting to throwing more and it is not working b/c they do not have the personnel. When they run and use the running QB - OL hurts and he is not a great passer - When they pass (guy is not a triple option guy) he has no targets other than one player with more than 5 receptions and the OL hurts here as well. Bottom line - NO IDENTITY this yr they are struggling.
3. Wyoming lost to an FCS team wk 1. Got down had to pass. Lost to a bad team. Zero excuse. Week 2 they were without their starting QB - ran for over 400Y but with crap Qbs were one dimensional and lost to EM at home. Now we stayed clear of fading Wyoming last wk figuring any team that can run for 400 against anyone including EM is probably doing something right....Well they outgained Wash St on the road and the QB and ground game looked decent. They got tired in the 2nd half but that was their best showing by far. QB 60% 4 td 1 int and healthy this wk. RB Hill over 400Y and avg over 8/pop. They have balanced - pro set run/pass and an identity and can mix it up.
4. Coaching. Former 3-time FCS Natty Champ winning HC in yr 2 of his system building vs Snake Oil Salesman trying to change things up and transition into something that their personnel is not suited to yet. Our investigative reporting unit also notes that there is a lot of FIRE Davie talk going on including several ex players making social media waves. This is probably nothing - but it does not help.
5. Intangibles. Wyoming has non-conf matchup next wk; NMex has their big rival NM St next wk. New Mexico is 2-28 SU in their last 30 conference gamesTwo wins since the Carter administration......Last 3 meetings in Wy - Wy won all 3 38-31 31 -10 and 37-13
6. we are getting points. not giving them. +3.5 seems tasty.
REMEMBER - A HUGE WRITEUP MEANS NOTHING We often compose pages of BS that turns out into but as always we feel we owe it to folks to know we have thought this through and right or wrong we are on this BAD BOY
<woodshed - liking those picks you had Washington nailed in the thread early in the week now that puppy sitting below 3 - Way to move lines and change lives ....Susbsribers are still talking about your Texas TT over last wk and how your team nailed Cal at exactly 45 pts....Like the Minn TT under especially GL freak>
------------------
Appreciate the kind words MEGA
Our models have Cal/Wash & Ohio/Gophers going UNDER the totals:
Ohio gives up a very low .273 point/play and only 4.7 yds/play
Gophers .212 points/play on offense and only .226 on defense with 4.1 yds/play. For perspective, YTD Avg in NCAA is about .390 points/play and 5.6 yds/play
Early in the year so schedules/opponents can sway the #'s but we really like Gophers UNDER TT
Same story with Cal/Wash...both D's have better than average points/play (with Wash at a very good .228). We like a low scoring game and LOVE taking the home dog +4.5
We have Okie State getting 50+ on Texas today. They average almost 7 yds/play and Texas' D is basically awful (.439 pts/play & 6 yds/play). Okie State Top 10 in Off Pts/Play
As with any game we might be wrong, but we think we are on the right side of these plays either using the ATS play or TT's
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<woodshed - liking those picks you had Washington nailed in the thread early in the week now that puppy sitting below 3 - Way to move lines and change lives ....Susbsribers are still talking about your Texas TT over last wk and how your team nailed Cal at exactly 45 pts....Like the Minn TT under especially GL freak>
------------------
Appreciate the kind words MEGA
Our models have Cal/Wash & Ohio/Gophers going UNDER the totals:
Ohio gives up a very low .273 point/play and only 4.7 yds/play
Gophers .212 points/play on offense and only .226 on defense with 4.1 yds/play. For perspective, YTD Avg in NCAA is about .390 points/play and 5.6 yds/play
Early in the year so schedules/opponents can sway the #'s but we really like Gophers UNDER TT
Same story with Cal/Wash...both D's have better than average points/play (with Wash at a very good .228). We like a low scoring game and LOVE taking the home dog +4.5
We have Okie State getting 50+ on Texas today. They average almost 7 yds/play and Texas' D is basically awful (.439 pts/play & 6 yds/play). Okie State Top 10 in Off Pts/Play
As with any game we might be wrong, but we think we are on the right side of these plays either using the ATS play or TT's
Ball St - seems like we moved the line again .....I would really want 20 but take half-size no worse than +18.5....Tex AM I would still take it at 6.5 but no higher - if you really like them consider taking their TT over or ML parlay them SU with another team you like.....Florida total too low now IMO - again - consider taking a TT under if you really like one of those teams to get held to under 24 points. GL !
[/Quote
got it...thank you for taking out the time to reply...
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[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS]
Hey buddy
Ball St - seems like we moved the line again .....I would really want 20 but take half-size no worse than +18.5....Tex AM I would still take it at 6.5 but no higher - if you really like them consider taking their TT over or ML parlay them SU with another team you like.....Florida total too low now IMO - again - consider taking a TT under if you really like one of those teams to get held to under 24 points. GL !
[/Quote
got it...thank you for taking out the time to reply...
Mega...thanks for letting us tail you again , Texas A&M was definitely a "better to be lucky than good" situation with the game-winning FG missed that led to a cover in OT, but hey those tickets cash all the same.
Also, please make sure to keep passing the CRACK PIPE SPECIAL, 3-0 this year I believe.
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Mega...thanks for letting us tail you again , Texas A&M was definitely a "better to be lucky than good" situation with the game-winning FG missed that led to a cover in OT, but hey those tickets cash all the same.
Also, please make sure to keep passing the CRACK PIPE SPECIAL, 3-0 this year I believe.
Mega, I just wanted to make sure that I was the leper that thanked you for the sharing of your wisdom. By adhering to your prophetic counsel, I have reaped thefruitful blessings
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Mega, I just wanted to make sure that I was the leper that thanked you for the sharing of your wisdom. By adhering to your prophetic counsel, I have reaped thefruitful blessings
we interrupt regularly scheduled programming for the following
CRACK PIPE SPECIAL ALERT
Ball St +20
The Wildcats have been playing great defense - but their offense has not found a rhythm yet....#97th in offense and #126 in passing efficiency....To be fair they did play a couple good defenses (although not sure about Stanford anymore....or really Duke?) Bottom line - one offensive TD vs Stanford....One vs Duke....Now they get a scrappy and veteran Ball St team who took Iowa to the wall last yr on the road and lost by 4....and this team looks better to us....New QB Riley Neal looks fantastic and is a running and passing threat similar to Duke QB and that means driving defenders nuts and at least moving the chains at times to keep the clock moving....Ace in the hole is Ball St receiving core which is very very good and probably the best OL in the MAC....A RB that has 334 and 4 TD....They are going to get some first downs....Just do not see NW pulling away in this one. Added bonus - NW has Big 10 play up next....Ball St a comical 32-14 ATS (0-1 this yr at Tex AM) as a road dog.
We also like the NW TT under 35 - maybe even prefer that play - BUT - we know a lot of you guys cannot get these lines yet SO - think Ball St +20 also a nice play gonna go with that.....RE: team total analysis - ball st gave up over 35 ONE time last year and ONE time the yr before they are well coached.
GL mega
I am the rare drug addict that can safely say he has benefitted greatly from the crack pipe this season. Amazing crack pipe picks.
All in all, this was a crazy Saturday of college football. Thank goodness for the luck of the Irish ...erm ... I mean luck of the Texas A&M Aggies! That finish saved my day for sure. After that, USC was total gravy. This was one of those weeks were it was better to be lucky than skilled.
Speaking of lucky (or unlucky), what the heck was with Oregon?!? They cost me a 6 team college football teaser today. I only saw the score, and I at first thought maybe ESPN got the score reversed by accident. But nope, the score was right. To see them get beaten down like that at home and against Utah?!? Utah seemed okay but not all that impressive the first two weeks. Perhaps that win versus Michigan was a lot more impressive than I gave them credit for.
Onto next week! Good luck MEGALOCKS and fellow freaks
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
we interrupt regularly scheduled programming for the following
CRACK PIPE SPECIAL ALERT
Ball St +20
The Wildcats have been playing great defense - but their offense has not found a rhythm yet....#97th in offense and #126 in passing efficiency....To be fair they did play a couple good defenses (although not sure about Stanford anymore....or really Duke?) Bottom line - one offensive TD vs Stanford....One vs Duke....Now they get a scrappy and veteran Ball St team who took Iowa to the wall last yr on the road and lost by 4....and this team looks better to us....New QB Riley Neal looks fantastic and is a running and passing threat similar to Duke QB and that means driving defenders nuts and at least moving the chains at times to keep the clock moving....Ace in the hole is Ball St receiving core which is very very good and probably the best OL in the MAC....A RB that has 334 and 4 TD....They are going to get some first downs....Just do not see NW pulling away in this one. Added bonus - NW has Big 10 play up next....Ball St a comical 32-14 ATS (0-1 this yr at Tex AM) as a road dog.
We also like the NW TT under 35 - maybe even prefer that play - BUT - we know a lot of you guys cannot get these lines yet SO - think Ball St +20 also a nice play gonna go with that.....RE: team total analysis - ball st gave up over 35 ONE time last year and ONE time the yr before they are well coached.
GL mega
I am the rare drug addict that can safely say he has benefitted greatly from the crack pipe this season. Amazing crack pipe picks.
All in all, this was a crazy Saturday of college football. Thank goodness for the luck of the Irish ...erm ... I mean luck of the Texas A&M Aggies! That finish saved my day for sure. After that, USC was total gravy. This was one of those weeks were it was better to be lucky than skilled.
Speaking of lucky (or unlucky), what the heck was with Oregon?!? They cost me a 6 team college football teaser today. I only saw the score, and I at first thought maybe ESPN got the score reversed by accident. But nope, the score was right. To see them get beaten down like that at home and against Utah?!? Utah seemed okay but not all that impressive the first two weeks. Perhaps that win versus Michigan was a lot more impressive than I gave them credit for.
Onto next week! Good luck MEGALOCKS and fellow freaks
New to the forum and throwing some thanks your way. Took a couple picks that you and I both agreed on for a parlay and won a little cash. Truly appreciate the write-ups, keep it up.
- Joe
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New to the forum and throwing some thanks your way. Took a couple picks that you and I both agreed on for a parlay and won a little cash. Truly appreciate the write-ups, keep it up.
thanks a lot everyone very fortunate to have you all contribute to the thread and stay positive ! really appreciate it !!
Another winning week making it 4/4 on the season. We just want to be as consistent as possible for you guys while we narrate our pages and pages of BS and hopefully make a bit of coin
BYU
gqsmuv
Lion we did it again - and again underdog almost won OUTRIGHT ....Ball St is a Playaaaaaa
SST - thx man CRACK PIPE SPECIALS are now a DOCUMENTED 3-0 on the season. What can we come up with next ?????? Can't wait for the big Clemson game this week - all they do is WIN.
Lakerz - Yes that ending to Tex AM was pretty cool....I really wanted them to get a TD since we had it at -3 and it is no fun at all to push while other lose....so a nice turn of fortune....But guess what the Florida MIRACLE toasted our under play and we did not complain - we thought it was just a fantastic football game and why we love those Sat SEC tilts ! Congrats to over backers that was the right side because it CASHED...duh. GL this wk
MoJo - CONGRATS on your parlay - Your example is EXACTLY why we do this - We hope that you guys use our analysis for your own benefit and only tag along with our plays IF you agree with us. Excellent job.
On to week 5 !
Remember kids - we hope to have EARLY TASTERS up for week 5 this afternoon maybe 1 or 2 our pencils are already getting sharp so if you wanna tag along get ready !
MEGA
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thanks a lot everyone very fortunate to have you all contribute to the thread and stay positive ! really appreciate it !!
Another winning week making it 4/4 on the season. We just want to be as consistent as possible for you guys while we narrate our pages and pages of BS and hopefully make a bit of coin
BYU
gqsmuv
Lion we did it again - and again underdog almost won OUTRIGHT ....Ball St is a Playaaaaaa
SST - thx man CRACK PIPE SPECIALS are now a DOCUMENTED 3-0 on the season. What can we come up with next ?????? Can't wait for the big Clemson game this week - all they do is WIN.
Lakerz - Yes that ending to Tex AM was pretty cool....I really wanted them to get a TD since we had it at -3 and it is no fun at all to push while other lose....so a nice turn of fortune....But guess what the Florida MIRACLE toasted our under play and we did not complain - we thought it was just a fantastic football game and why we love those Sat SEC tilts ! Congrats to over backers that was the right side because it CASHED...duh. GL this wk
MoJo - CONGRATS on your parlay - Your example is EXACTLY why we do this - We hope that you guys use our analysis for your own benefit and only tag along with our plays IF you agree with us. Excellent job.
On to week 5 !
Remember kids - we hope to have EARLY TASTERS up for week 5 this afternoon maybe 1 or 2 our pencils are already getting sharp so if you wanna tag along get ready !
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great post buddy ! GL this wk 
** that being Virginia **
) has looked ok....FAU desparately needs a win 0-3 but win this conf game - then a bye - still time to turn things around...they just get in their own way so much just cant bet them - blew lead to Tulsa gave up 600Y in OT loss, gave up over 500Y in Miami loss - then outgained Buffalo and 
"because we are one with the people"
....Like the Minn TT under especially GL freak
but as always we feel we owe it to folks to know we have thought this through and right or wrong we are on this BAD BOY
, Texas A&M was definitely a "better to be lucky than good" situation with the game-winning FG missed that led to a cover in OT, but hey those tickets cash all the same.
What can we come up with next ?????? Can't wait for the big Clemson game this week - all they do is WIN.
CONGRATS on your parlay - Your example is EXACTLY why we do this - We hope that you guys use our analysis for your own benefit and only tag along with our plays IF you agree with us. Excellent job.
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