thx everyone
Rico - Kansas will not be on the radar if only because Rutgers is unpredictably unpredictable and always have the entire team on the injury report - not to mention players engaging in random gunplay while coaches help players cheat on exams and mobsters execute people in local coffee shops. Just a no play but won't say no if you have the guts !! GL this wk buddy
DavidN - one of the best
mbiddy - thx got a couple of hot ones for a change last wk was too sluggish off the mark so made sure I was ready with a hot list this wk - GL buddy
Double - great to see you back ! thx man
Lombardi
McGuire - as always GREAT intel I love reading that inside stuff about a program - thanks for posting that....Did not realize what a huge downgrade that potentially was at OC. GL and keep up your awesome work
Vorvan - that is some serious STEAM
second play
EARLY TASTER
Penn St -11
As we noted - was 9.5 for a brief moment had all my screens open - flip over to the one with the penn st boxscores for a second to confirm something - and BOOM -11. No -10. Got all the bets in posted then a short while later it was -12 see some 13s this morning we would take it up to 13.5 as we said yesterday. And keep in mind - you can always play a SD TT under -or a game total under - or whatever if you like this play but do not like the number - be creative if you can or pass the game
Still getting some value off Penn St loss to Temple - but Temple no slouch - Penn St gave up 10 sacks that day - but have given up ZERO since that game - and sparkling freshman S Barkley ran for 115 vs Buffalo followed by 195 2 td vs Rutgers...Overall Penn rushed for well over 300Y last wk and their D is developing into the brick wall we hoped for - 17 points allowed last 2 home games - SD ST breaking in a new QB - really all they have is a star RB and we do not see them running at all - and when that does not happen good luck MATRICULATING on Penn St in the passing game.....Good situation - Penn just has Army on deck - SD has MWC play approaching - and all their goals are still ahead of them do not think this is the game they put it all out - will be getting a bunch of guys back from suspension too soon so SD St is still in fine shape even if they get creamed here. Like we said last wk - we thought UConn could cover vs Mizz even if they got negative points somehow - well the worry this wk is that Penn St needs to score 12 to cover 11
GL mega
thx everyone
Rico - Kansas will not be on the radar if only because Rutgers is unpredictably unpredictable and always have the entire team on the injury report - not to mention players engaging in random gunplay while coaches help players cheat on exams and mobsters execute people in local coffee shops. Just a no play but won't say no if you have the guts !! GL this wk buddy
DavidN - one of the best
mbiddy - thx got a couple of hot ones for a change last wk was too sluggish off the mark so made sure I was ready with a hot list this wk - GL buddy
Double - great to see you back ! thx man
Lombardi
McGuire - as always GREAT intel I love reading that inside stuff about a program - thanks for posting that....Did not realize what a huge downgrade that potentially was at OC. GL and keep up your awesome work
Vorvan - that is some serious STEAM
second play
EARLY TASTER
Penn St -11
As we noted - was 9.5 for a brief moment had all my screens open - flip over to the one with the penn st boxscores for a second to confirm something - and BOOM -11. No -10. Got all the bets in posted then a short while later it was -12 see some 13s this morning we would take it up to 13.5 as we said yesterday. And keep in mind - you can always play a SD TT under -or a game total under - or whatever if you like this play but do not like the number - be creative if you can or pass the game
Still getting some value off Penn St loss to Temple - but Temple no slouch - Penn St gave up 10 sacks that day - but have given up ZERO since that game - and sparkling freshman S Barkley ran for 115 vs Buffalo followed by 195 2 td vs Rutgers...Overall Penn rushed for well over 300Y last wk and their D is developing into the brick wall we hoped for - 17 points allowed last 2 home games - SD ST breaking in a new QB - really all they have is a star RB and we do not see them running at all - and when that does not happen good luck MATRICULATING on Penn St in the passing game.....Good situation - Penn just has Army on deck - SD has MWC play approaching - and all their goals are still ahead of them do not think this is the game they put it all out - will be getting a bunch of guys back from suspension too soon so SD St is still in fine shape even if they get creamed here. Like we said last wk - we thought UConn could cover vs Mizz even if they got negative points somehow - well the worry this wk is that Penn St needs to score 12 to cover 11
GL mega
thx guys appreciate it
Area51 - I am very interested in the TCU game...Can see the merits in both sides - need to do more digging - we are developing a man crush on Tex Tech and their beefcake HC but more importantly they are playing really well.....Our staff member Hot Carl is at the "massage parlor" right now will get back to you
dish
BYU - glad we could turn a fine citizen like yourself into a crack pipe special addict We knew Covers Nation were a bunch of lunatics when we gave out a pick that lost 59-0 or something many moons ago and people wanted MORE Crazy. Yes LSU did what we thought. Fortunately it worked out. You have to be happy with BYU so scrappy. We would take Penn St up to 13.5. GL
pickmywhat ....I would not take Tex AM any higher than 6.5 to be honest I mean if you really like em maybe ML parlay with another 7 pt fav you like ? I doubt it goes higher Arkansas is no slouch cannot imagine it getting into the 8-10 range but who knows.......YES you nailed something important - the more we have focused on money management the past few years the better your accounts look at the end of the year -Many focus on getting the "right" picks but they bet too much and end up losing going 6-4 or breaking even going 2-1 because the one loser was an imaginary multiple unit play. GL this wk
Alabama 39 ULM
Megalocks line -35
Definitely a touch of value here - at least according to our PR which have it a bit lower + the situation favors ULM off bye and Bama in big sandwich spot off Ole Miss and Georgia next - dear God just looked at their schedule again pretty freaking crazy - anyway - Bama outgained Ole Miss but -5 in turnovers and Ole Miss played well but were beneficiaries of some charity....We think Bama wins by between 28-45 so maybe you can squeeze in a win with ULM here - You guys know we had MTSU vs Bama as the season's first CRACK PIPE SPECIAL winner but ULM OL is worse and so is their D....BAD recipe Bama will run wild and kill them off play action - The wild card is that is looks like ULM has the best pure passing QB we have seen in a while...Kolton Browning was one of our favs too but maybe the new QB and increased pass frequency will get ULM into some OVERS later in the year.
Summary - lean ULM at 39 or more.
(lean - meaning we are not betting on it - but if you said "hey we like ULM" - we would say - ya we can support that; If you liked Bama - we would not talk you out of it)
mega
thx guys appreciate it
Area51 - I am very interested in the TCU game...Can see the merits in both sides - need to do more digging - we are developing a man crush on Tex Tech and their beefcake HC but more importantly they are playing really well.....Our staff member Hot Carl is at the "massage parlor" right now will get back to you
dish
BYU - glad we could turn a fine citizen like yourself into a crack pipe special addict We knew Covers Nation were a bunch of lunatics when we gave out a pick that lost 59-0 or something many moons ago and people wanted MORE Crazy. Yes LSU did what we thought. Fortunately it worked out. You have to be happy with BYU so scrappy. We would take Penn St up to 13.5. GL
pickmywhat ....I would not take Tex AM any higher than 6.5 to be honest I mean if you really like em maybe ML parlay with another 7 pt fav you like ? I doubt it goes higher Arkansas is no slouch cannot imagine it getting into the 8-10 range but who knows.......YES you nailed something important - the more we have focused on money management the past few years the better your accounts look at the end of the year -Many focus on getting the "right" picks but they bet too much and end up losing going 6-4 or breaking even going 2-1 because the one loser was an imaginary multiple unit play. GL this wk
Alabama 39 ULM
Megalocks line -35
Definitely a touch of value here - at least according to our PR which have it a bit lower + the situation favors ULM off bye and Bama in big sandwich spot off Ole Miss and Georgia next - dear God just looked at their schedule again pretty freaking crazy - anyway - Bama outgained Ole Miss but -5 in turnovers and Ole Miss played well but were beneficiaries of some charity....We think Bama wins by between 28-45 so maybe you can squeeze in a win with ULM here - You guys know we had MTSU vs Bama as the season's first CRACK PIPE SPECIAL winner but ULM OL is worse and so is their D....BAD recipe Bama will run wild and kill them off play action - The wild card is that is looks like ULM has the best pure passing QB we have seen in a while...Kolton Browning was one of our favs too but maybe the new QB and increased pass frequency will get ULM into some OVERS later in the year.
Summary - lean ULM at 39 or more.
(lean - meaning we are not betting on it - but if you said "hey we like ULM" - we would say - ya we can support that; If you liked Bama - we would not talk you out of it)
mega
LSU 24 Syracuse
Megalocks line 21
A decent spot for an underdog cover in theory - LSU won and looked good vs Auburn (letdown?) and the strength of Cuse D is vs the run (ranked #3) and they just have trouble with good passing QBs - Rush got them for 400+ and that was our worry last wk....Having said that - if you take away the sack yardage the rushing yds for CM last wk look a bit better - Spalding got them for 83 and Hayes for 51....Really the D did not have a great day - of course it did not help that their QB took a brutal hit and they used 3 QBs - and THAT is why this is a no play for us - Can't imagine Dungey will play after getting killed especially with a bye on deck - and keep in mind if he does not then we are talking about 3rd-5th string guys getting in vs LSU and imagine if another one gets popped Gonna pass- a game where local knowledge can come in handy which we do not have despite our correspondents dominating all over the globe - We will see what SyracuseJoe has to say in his thread
Summary - no leanage
mega
LSU 24 Syracuse
Megalocks line 21
A decent spot for an underdog cover in theory - LSU won and looked good vs Auburn (letdown?) and the strength of Cuse D is vs the run (ranked #3) and they just have trouble with good passing QBs - Rush got them for 400+ and that was our worry last wk....Having said that - if you take away the sack yardage the rushing yds for CM last wk look a bit better - Spalding got them for 83 and Hayes for 51....Really the D did not have a great day - of course it did not help that their QB took a brutal hit and they used 3 QBs - and THAT is why this is a no play for us - Can't imagine Dungey will play after getting killed especially with a bye on deck - and keep in mind if he does not then we are talking about 3rd-5th string guys getting in vs LSU and imagine if another one gets popped Gonna pass- a game where local knowledge can come in handy which we do not have despite our correspondents dominating all over the globe - We will see what SyracuseJoe has to say in his thread
Summary - no leanage
mega
thanks everyone appreciate the comments and discussion
cranks good job buddy; you have to wait and try not to chase lines when they rocket up just MY opinion but I think long term - if that is what you are in for - then every bet (unless a degenerate action play which we all make) must be taken at the best odds you can get. Right now since you missed those (just like we missed Va Tech -4 and -6) you have to wait for the puppy to come back or make a different play on that game or just pass.
train ....Keep up the good work buddy ....Man I hear you on Mizz but I watched every snap of that game last wk....I hate betting against Mizz - maybe have done it twice in the last 5 yrs....One thing I did notice is that Mizz DL is one crazy penetrating bunch of freaks and that Kentucky QB looks like a man with no legs running in quicksand - Need to look at that one some more. GL !
Titos - fortunately 3 winning weeks just hoping for another one this wk this is a tough game GL !
Joe - My prediction is total of 44 with implied score of 34-10 would consider TT under 10.5 GL !
mega
thanks everyone appreciate the comments and discussion
cranks good job buddy; you have to wait and try not to chase lines when they rocket up just MY opinion but I think long term - if that is what you are in for - then every bet (unless a degenerate action play which we all make) must be taken at the best odds you can get. Right now since you missed those (just like we missed Va Tech -4 and -6) you have to wait for the puppy to come back or make a different play on that game or just pass.
train ....Keep up the good work buddy ....Man I hear you on Mizz but I watched every snap of that game last wk....I hate betting against Mizz - maybe have done it twice in the last 5 yrs....One thing I did notice is that Mizz DL is one crazy penetrating bunch of freaks and that Kentucky QB looks like a man with no legs running in quicksand - Need to look at that one some more. GL !
Titos - fortunately 3 winning weeks just hoping for another one this wk this is a tough game GL !
Joe - My prediction is total of 44 with implied score of 34-10 would consider TT under 10.5 GL !
mega
Auburn 3 Miss St
Megalocks line - pick em
Just looking at the last couple of weeks it appears simple - LSU destroyed Auburn - LSU squeeked by Miss St.....Common opponent handicapping 101?? Well Auburn game was on the road / Miss St game at home...But we do see some merit in that approach to a point...Miss St we believe did not get full marks for their game vs LSU and that was just one reason we backed LSU last wk....Dak still solid at QB...0 int so far and the spot looks good - Auburn off giving up 400 yds rushing - Miss St off a tune up....So we DO lean Miss St at a FG or more....but two things keep this at a lean for NOW but it is on our radar for a play...1) Need to verify who is in and who is out on the defensive side of the ball for Auburn injuries often overrated but want to have an idea of exactly how many starters may be out and how thin the DL is 2) we are not Auburn experts and always look forward to the local guys takes - but our correspondents tell us that Sean White may get the start at QB for Auburn - he got 100% of the snaps with the #1s in practice - now that may not mean anything - and he may stink - but our point is that could be just enough of a spark to help turn Auburn around I mean they don't stink and get this one at home - a big win here and things are turned around....Again - just some rumblings we read - but JJ has 6 INT - and you did not want to throw in a new QB at LSU - so maybe just maybe this is a turning point for Auburn....Really surprised at the -3 and believe it or not this puppy was -4 on BOL initially for a minute or two.
Summary - lean Miss St at +3 or better. On short list of potential adds.
mega
Auburn 3 Miss St
Megalocks line - pick em
Just looking at the last couple of weeks it appears simple - LSU destroyed Auburn - LSU squeeked by Miss St.....Common opponent handicapping 101?? Well Auburn game was on the road / Miss St game at home...But we do see some merit in that approach to a point...Miss St we believe did not get full marks for their game vs LSU and that was just one reason we backed LSU last wk....Dak still solid at QB...0 int so far and the spot looks good - Auburn off giving up 400 yds rushing - Miss St off a tune up....So we DO lean Miss St at a FG or more....but two things keep this at a lean for NOW but it is on our radar for a play...1) Need to verify who is in and who is out on the defensive side of the ball for Auburn injuries often overrated but want to have an idea of exactly how many starters may be out and how thin the DL is 2) we are not Auburn experts and always look forward to the local guys takes - but our correspondents tell us that Sean White may get the start at QB for Auburn - he got 100% of the snaps with the #1s in practice - now that may not mean anything - and he may stink - but our point is that could be just enough of a spark to help turn Auburn around I mean they don't stink and get this one at home - a big win here and things are turned around....Again - just some rumblings we read - but JJ has 6 INT - and you did not want to throw in a new QB at LSU - so maybe just maybe this is a turning point for Auburn....Really surprised at the -3 and believe it or not this puppy was -4 on BOL initially for a minute or two.
Summary - lean Miss St at +3 or better. On short list of potential adds.
mega
that Kentucky QB looks like a man with no legs running in quicksand - Need to look at that one some more. GL !
that Kentucky QB looks like a man with no legs running in quicksand - Need to look at that one some more. GL !
glad to see my instincts on Kentucky QB were on the mark according to your knowledge - Florida's D was making things tough for him but he just seemed to have no pocket presence and made some questionable decisions but I know they are just kids just wondering how he is gonna do against Mizz D I feel like you and Train have this one nailed BUT I am thinking Kentucky is gonna earn all the points they get the Mizz D still looks pretty good and can create havoc.
Ole Miss 25 Vandy
Megalocks line - 24
On one hand - it does not look like Ole Miss is a team you wanna fade right now - but on the other hand - after coming off 2 big pointspread covers and two games scoring over 70 points - rest assured anyone playing Ole Miss wk is paying full price - not to mention with Florida on deck this is a big sandwich spot for them...QB Kelly looks fantastic so far was a little disappointed in how they could not put Bama away even being +5 in turnovers - but that is kinda being picky - they won - and we have them in our Top 5....Just not sure this is the spot.....Vandy has been playing some good D - WKU and GA no slouches - esp that pass D held WK down and the GA QB looked great last wk vs SC so maybe just maybe this one might be a bit tighter than we think - QB JM is passing for a lot of yds but still 6 int....Trivia note - Vandy WR Trent Sherfield caught a school record 240Y receiving on 16 catches last wk...What worries us? Vandy is #124 in turnover margin after going -16 last yr ; and no way they run on Ole Miss.
Potentially useless trend...Vandy 10-4 L14 ATS vs Ole Miss.
Summary - no leanage
mega
glad to see my instincts on Kentucky QB were on the mark according to your knowledge - Florida's D was making things tough for him but he just seemed to have no pocket presence and made some questionable decisions but I know they are just kids just wondering how he is gonna do against Mizz D I feel like you and Train have this one nailed BUT I am thinking Kentucky is gonna earn all the points they get the Mizz D still looks pretty good and can create havoc.
Ole Miss 25 Vandy
Megalocks line - 24
On one hand - it does not look like Ole Miss is a team you wanna fade right now - but on the other hand - after coming off 2 big pointspread covers and two games scoring over 70 points - rest assured anyone playing Ole Miss wk is paying full price - not to mention with Florida on deck this is a big sandwich spot for them...QB Kelly looks fantastic so far was a little disappointed in how they could not put Bama away even being +5 in turnovers - but that is kinda being picky - they won - and we have them in our Top 5....Just not sure this is the spot.....Vandy has been playing some good D - WKU and GA no slouches - esp that pass D held WK down and the GA QB looked great last wk vs SC so maybe just maybe this one might be a bit tighter than we think - QB JM is passing for a lot of yds but still 6 int....Trivia note - Vandy WR Trent Sherfield caught a school record 240Y receiving on 16 catches last wk...What worries us? Vandy is #124 in turnover margin after going -16 last yr ; and no way they run on Ole Miss.
Potentially useless trend...Vandy 10-4 L14 ATS vs Ole Miss.
Summary - no leanage
mega
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