BUT I am thinking Kentucky is gonna earn all the points they get the Mizz D still looks pretty good and can create havoc.
BUT I am thinking Kentucky is gonna earn all the points they get the Mizz D still looks pretty good and can create havoc.
BUT I am thinking Kentucky is gonna earn all the points they get the Mizz D still looks pretty good and can create havoc.
I have not looked at that game but promise to look at it after I finish with the SEC games later today....NC St has been playing really good football since the end of last yr - and while not against the toughest of competition - There is a lot to be said for "current form". GL
I have not looked at that game but promise to look at it after I finish with the SEC games later today....NC St has been playing really good football since the end of last yr - and while not against the toughest of competition - There is a lot to be said for "current form". GL
Congrats man ! great hit and glad you went along for the ride. We had a good feeling on that one - but as always - we NEVER shove our picks down anyone's throat - Our analysis is just out there and if you agree - great - if not - that is ok too. It looks easy now but there were also legitimate reasons to take Auburn as we discussed......Just went our way. Happy you agreed.
I will look at the Cal/Wash game after the last couple of SEC games I have on deck. My main focus will be if/how Washington can slow Cal down and if/how the Wash offense is improving. Stay tuned.
Diving ! yes I love it. Got certified about 15 years ago. Never been to the Caymans but hear it is a top 5 dive location. My favorite dive locations/experiences? 1) Belize - #1 in my book - everything from beautful shallow dives to the famous Blue Hole; pretty amazing county too 2) Great Barrier Reef - Australia - whoa !! 3)Bahamas - shark dive - not the ones where they feed them - but you jump in have a pretty relaxing dive watching them swim around - and around you - then hang in the bar below the boat while they all circle and check you out ! do not do diving for thrill seeking but that was pretty awesome. GL this wk! mega
Congrats man ! great hit and glad you went along for the ride. We had a good feeling on that one - but as always - we NEVER shove our picks down anyone's throat - Our analysis is just out there and if you agree - great - if not - that is ok too. It looks easy now but there were also legitimate reasons to take Auburn as we discussed......Just went our way. Happy you agreed.
I will look at the Cal/Wash game after the last couple of SEC games I have on deck. My main focus will be if/how Washington can slow Cal down and if/how the Wash offense is improving. Stay tuned.
Diving ! yes I love it. Got certified about 15 years ago. Never been to the Caymans but hear it is a top 5 dive location. My favorite dive locations/experiences? 1) Belize - #1 in my book - everything from beautful shallow dives to the famous Blue Hole; pretty amazing county too 2) Great Barrier Reef - Australia - whoa !! 3)Bahamas - shark dive - not the ones where they feed them - but you jump in have a pretty relaxing dive watching them swim around - and around you - then hang in the bar below the boat while they all circle and check you out ! do not do diving for thrill seeking but that was pretty awesome. GL this wk! mega
S Carolina 14.5 UCF (45.5)
Megalocks line - 12
Wow - tough one to call. SC coming off a tough loss to Kentucky (maybe the greatest team to ever walk the earth) and then got their teeth kicked in against Georgia who ran and passed at will....Their QB play looked shaky but the starting C went out - and GA are BEASTS so do not want to overdue it as fun as that may be we always try to be objective - and objectively - they are not a team you want to lay 2 TDs with right now especially off those two Ls and with Mizzouri (maybe the worst team that has ever walked the face of the earth) ....They are also beat up...BUT - the one thing we are pretty sure about - SC and QB Orth will have a good day against this UCF secondary ...UCF also beat up lost a top WR; one of their top RB out - D banged up - and oh by the way - they are rotating QBs now that their starter is out - Now he was not very good but a decent manager of the game with not much help - Last wk it was a certified #shitshow as their QBs totalled less than 100Y passing and 3 INT in a loss to FURMAN - yes THAT Furman - the FURMAN that had not beaten an FBS team since 1999. UCF 127th in O....#112 in pass eff D....0-3 start....If this team was at full strength - we might consider but just cannot do it here.
Summary - no lean on side; As bad as SC D looked last wk - do lean to UCF TT under any number 14.5 or higher - so far they have scored 14,7,15 so far - one decent D - one good one - one bad one.....Just a lean right now
mega
S Carolina 14.5 UCF (45.5)
Megalocks line - 12
Wow - tough one to call. SC coming off a tough loss to Kentucky (maybe the greatest team to ever walk the earth) and then got their teeth kicked in against Georgia who ran and passed at will....Their QB play looked shaky but the starting C went out - and GA are BEASTS so do not want to overdue it as fun as that may be we always try to be objective - and objectively - they are not a team you want to lay 2 TDs with right now especially off those two Ls and with Mizzouri (maybe the worst team that has ever walked the face of the earth) ....They are also beat up...BUT - the one thing we are pretty sure about - SC and QB Orth will have a good day against this UCF secondary ...UCF also beat up lost a top WR; one of their top RB out - D banged up - and oh by the way - they are rotating QBs now that their starter is out - Now he was not very good but a decent manager of the game with not much help - Last wk it was a certified #shitshow as their QBs totalled less than 100Y passing and 3 INT in a loss to FURMAN - yes THAT Furman - the FURMAN that had not beaten an FBS team since 1999. UCF 127th in O....#112 in pass eff D....0-3 start....If this team was at full strength - we might consider but just cannot do it here.
Summary - no lean on side; As bad as SC D looked last wk - do lean to UCF TT under any number 14.5 or higher - so far they have scored 14,7,15 so far - one decent D - one good one - one bad one.....Just a lean right now
mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Further to this discussion
ADDING
Florida / Tennessee under 53.5
Tennessee does not have a single player with more than 100 receiving yards....That is how you move the ball on them if at all - sure the running game will work some but the Florida run D has been very good and they sacked the immortal Kentucky QB 6 times last wk so they can get some pressure and held the Brady-like talent to 8/24 and 126 yards - Tenn only had as we said approx. 250Y vs Sooners in 2 OT and do not forget while the score was 31-24 in 2 OT it was 17-3 in the 4th Q. Tennessee needs to establish run to win - we think they will have some success but just enough to keep the clock moving....Florida has one WR with over 10 receptions and their leading yds dude is a TE with 132Y. QB will be rotating - running a bit. Passing a bit. Jet sweeps etc...Do not see either team doing much on offense as both Ds are good. Barring gift points on special teams we see this one staying below 53.5. Who knows.
GL ! mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Further to this discussion
ADDING
Florida / Tennessee under 53.5
Tennessee does not have a single player with more than 100 receiving yards....That is how you move the ball on them if at all - sure the running game will work some but the Florida run D has been very good and they sacked the immortal Kentucky QB 6 times last wk so they can get some pressure and held the Brady-like talent to 8/24 and 126 yards - Tenn only had as we said approx. 250Y vs Sooners in 2 OT and do not forget while the score was 31-24 in 2 OT it was 17-3 in the 4th Q. Tennessee needs to establish run to win - we think they will have some success but just enough to keep the clock moving....Florida has one WR with over 10 receptions and their leading yds dude is a TE with 132Y. QB will be rotating - running a bit. Passing a bit. Jet sweeps etc...Do not see either team doing much on offense as both Ds are good. Barring gift points on special teams we see this one staying below 53.5. Who knows.
GL ! mega
Navy(-8) @ UConn.....
This thing has moved to Navy -6.5...... could be bait....would be hard pressed to go against an improved UConn team with a defensive minded coach at home catching a td +. (I would imagine that everyone is thinking that same thing...)
Posting Navy -8 as an opener is just begging to get sided. Somebody somewhere is a Navy believer.
GL this week Mega.
Navy(-8) @ UConn.....
This thing has moved to Navy -6.5...... could be bait....would be hard pressed to go against an improved UConn team with a defensive minded coach at home catching a td +. (I would imagine that everyone is thinking that same thing...)
Posting Navy -8 as an opener is just begging to get sided. Somebody somewhere is a Navy believer.
GL this week Mega.
Kenny
Relax - cheers. thanks man. good to see you in the forum.
Wiseguy ...glad you like the total - We have the number at 48/49 so would have played it at 52. Hopefully Jim Heist or Wally Winners releases a 485204395 star UNDER on this one and the line plummets after all our readers get on it of course....We like beating the closing line it is our mission this yr GL
Vern - man you need to post more often one of the most underrated guys on here. I am gonna look at the UConn game later but I must say - yes we were on UConn last wk - but we are going to be on them again that QB is very poised really like him compared to what they have had recently and their D is very good....On the flipside - dead serious - Navy QB one of our top 10 NCAA fav players ever so hard to cheer against him we usually pass Navy games if we don't bet ON them. gotta dig deeper on this game. GL !
last SEC game coming up ....mega
Kenny
Relax - cheers. thanks man. good to see you in the forum.
Wiseguy ...glad you like the total - We have the number at 48/49 so would have played it at 52. Hopefully Jim Heist or Wally Winners releases a 485204395 star UNDER on this one and the line plummets after all our readers get on it of course....We like beating the closing line it is our mission this yr GL
Vern - man you need to post more often one of the most underrated guys on here. I am gonna look at the UConn game later but I must say - yes we were on UConn last wk - but we are going to be on them again that QB is very poised really like him compared to what they have had recently and their D is very good....On the flipside - dead serious - Navy QB one of our top 10 NCAA fav players ever so hard to cheer against him we usually pass Navy games if we don't bet ON them. gotta dig deeper on this game. GL !
last SEC game coming up ....mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Florida 1.5 Tennessee (53.5)
Megalocks line - pick em
Really tough game for us to pick a side on - Not sure if it is just a coincidence - but the last game that felt like this was Tenn/Oklahoma and whoa that could have gone either way; Will rely on the solid SEC guys in here to figure this one out....at least the SU winner......We hate picking against Florida because you know our style - boringgggggg - always a sucker for a good defense and while their QBs are not flashy - they are #26th in passing efficiency - say what you want about who they have played - If I hear that one more time we may drive our car into a wall - pretty much nobody has played anybody because it is SEPTEMBER - but if you go by the eye test and past history - and the talent assembled - ya Florida might be ok on defense....Tennessee only got 254 Y vs Oklahoma including 2OT and while they have more dynamic skill guys overall possibly on offense - not sure they are gonna have a ton of success.....Recent history? Quoting steele mag Florida was won 10 str by avg 14 ppg and outrushed them each time...Not sure they are gonna outrush them this game but we just get this feeling that somehow Florida squeeks this one out but we cannot justify even a lean... I mean is THIS Vols team the one that breaks that streak? History is history but man we have mad respect for anyone with a solid take on the side here. We do think the total is a touch high and will be sending a request to our investigative team to look into it.
Summary. Absolutely no idea who will win. Lean to under.
mega
Kentucky 2.5 Missouri (44)
Megalocks line -3
disclaimer: It has been our experience at Covers that more often than not - when a veteran capper has a strong take on a local team - whether it be Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, etc...the win rate is very good and would hazard a guess that you would be down quite a bit fading those picks; Just our opinion no facts to back it up. Our psychotic yet subtly humble pal TRAIN loves Missouri in this one so I would guess that it is going to be a winner based on his history. The write-up below is our usual objective take that SUBSCRIBERS DEMAND from us to make their own educated decisions.
1. We picked Georgia team total under last wk so we often STINK
2. We ALSO had the Missouri game nailed as our 234572389479 unit CRACK PIPE SPECIAL and the game played out for both teams pretty much like we thought. So news that Missouri is not very good is really not a surprise to us.
3. We have the fair line at -3. DoubleUp has it at -3. Sagarin has it at -2.4 for MISSOURI including taking SOS into account...yes it is early and we do not look at his ratings seriously until there is more data BUT just saying that is pretty much an industry standard so its not like any reasonable person on earth can say the line is way off.....Having said THAT - handicapping is more than numbers - it is an ART. It is reading between the lines that matters, local knowledge, watching games etc...We defer to that - just pointing out some tidbits.
4. Strength of schedule. Guys. It's too early to start talking about that. Ole Miss is #112 Baylor 149 TCU 140 Arizona 171 Oregon 104....are these teams not good? SOS - UNLV is 9th, fresno 19, SMU 10 Kansas 32, TROY 17...are they good? So - the point is - it is a piece of the puzzle but be careful about who has done what yet....I mean Tiger Woods is only good because he started golf so young I could have done that..... IF IF IF...We do know that this will be Missouri's toughest game though.
5. So given SOS - Kentucky 26, Mizz 131 ...These stats need to do be taken with a grain of salt...But what exactly does Kentucky do well? 85th rushing 95th passing - QB was 8/24 last wk - 0 TD passes 4 of his last 5 games and now faces good Mizz secondary - and he runs like a baby giraffe and has thrown more int than TD. Their D is ranked 70. Mizz has been brutal on offense but the D is #4 (again - vs WEAK) but they have pedigree people - 21 ppg last yr and most guys back this yr. Very disruptive in TFL and sacks and Kentucky is ranked #116 in sacks allowed.
6. Missouri OL has been trouble. Have not got the run game going and as we noted last week - they are banged up at RB - even with Hansbrough back this wk - and lack explosiveness on the outside. Not sure about the QB either as he completing a low % of his passes - and 53% last yr - so Mizz is probably gonna need their usual special teams/defensive TD magic to get a win here.
Potentially meaningless trends. Kentucky 7-19 L26 ATS SEC games; Mizz 14-3 ATS L17 away. and Pinkel has not had a losing ATS season since 2009 although they are 0-2 to start this season - 0-3 if you count FCS opener. Kentucky is 1-2.
Summary: No lean on the side. Hope Kentucky can bounce back after last wk - had that game circled wanted to beat Florida and end that 28 game losing streak. Mizz untested and OL struggling. Do lean under on the total but as you guys know we hate NCAA numbers in the 44 range not because they don't hit but b/c we are the kiss of death. Gonna pass.
mega
Kentucky 2.5 Missouri (44)
Megalocks line -3
disclaimer: It has been our experience at Covers that more often than not - when a veteran capper has a strong take on a local team - whether it be Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, etc...the win rate is very good and would hazard a guess that you would be down quite a bit fading those picks; Just our opinion no facts to back it up. Our psychotic yet subtly humble pal TRAIN loves Missouri in this one so I would guess that it is going to be a winner based on his history. The write-up below is our usual objective take that SUBSCRIBERS DEMAND from us to make their own educated decisions.
1. We picked Georgia team total under last wk so we often STINK
2. We ALSO had the Missouri game nailed as our 234572389479 unit CRACK PIPE SPECIAL and the game played out for both teams pretty much like we thought. So news that Missouri is not very good is really not a surprise to us.
3. We have the fair line at -3. DoubleUp has it at -3. Sagarin has it at -2.4 for MISSOURI including taking SOS into account...yes it is early and we do not look at his ratings seriously until there is more data BUT just saying that is pretty much an industry standard so its not like any reasonable person on earth can say the line is way off.....Having said THAT - handicapping is more than numbers - it is an ART. It is reading between the lines that matters, local knowledge, watching games etc...We defer to that - just pointing out some tidbits.
4. Strength of schedule. Guys. It's too early to start talking about that. Ole Miss is #112 Baylor 149 TCU 140 Arizona 171 Oregon 104....are these teams not good? SOS - UNLV is 9th, fresno 19, SMU 10 Kansas 32, TROY 17...are they good? So - the point is - it is a piece of the puzzle but be careful about who has done what yet....I mean Tiger Woods is only good because he started golf so young I could have done that..... IF IF IF...We do know that this will be Missouri's toughest game though.
5. So given SOS - Kentucky 26, Mizz 131 ...These stats need to do be taken with a grain of salt...But what exactly does Kentucky do well? 85th rushing 95th passing - QB was 8/24 last wk - 0 TD passes 4 of his last 5 games and now faces good Mizz secondary - and he runs like a baby giraffe and has thrown more int than TD. Their D is ranked 70. Mizz has been brutal on offense but the D is #4 (again - vs WEAK) but they have pedigree people - 21 ppg last yr and most guys back this yr. Very disruptive in TFL and sacks and Kentucky is ranked #116 in sacks allowed.
6. Missouri OL has been trouble. Have not got the run game going and as we noted last week - they are banged up at RB - even with Hansbrough back this wk - and lack explosiveness on the outside. Not sure about the QB either as he completing a low % of his passes - and 53% last yr - so Mizz is probably gonna need their usual special teams/defensive TD magic to get a win here.
Potentially meaningless trends. Kentucky 7-19 L26 ATS SEC games; Mizz 14-3 ATS L17 away. and Pinkel has not had a losing ATS season since 2009 although they are 0-2 to start this season - 0-3 if you count FCS opener. Kentucky is 1-2.
Summary: No lean on the side. Hope Kentucky can bounce back after last wk - had that game circled wanted to beat Florida and end that 28 game losing streak. Mizz untested and OL struggling. Do lean under on the total but as you guys know we hate NCAA numbers in the 44 range not because they don't hit but b/c we are the kiss of death. Gonna pass.
mega
WHOA ! thanks man. Nice to get one right at least for now.
WHOA ! thanks man. Nice to get one right at least for now.
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