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NCAA wk 7

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Posted: #151
 
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Posted: #152
Bama 9 Arkansas
Gotta stay away from this one....Have the fair line at 10....Bama has won the last 2 games 52-0 whaaaaaaaat....sure this Ark team is better and we like them just do not know what is that different - Bama is way more explosive and hate us but we have Bama/Auburn still as top 2 teams by a bit right now so not going to fade these guys....Also take note that Bama games have been lined very well this yr so this will likely be another one everyone is sweating out but not us....Bama only gave up 323 to a pretty good team last wk....Ark has given up 595 523 to two good teams this yr - sadly lean Bama for hog fans - no take on total....Had taste of Miss in ML dog parlay last wk  not using arkansas maybe to our peril GL
 
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Posted: #153
Texas AM 2 Ole Miss
Another great SEC matchup and we found this one tough to cap as well.....We have the fair line at a pick em....Have been doing a great job navigating the SEC minefield so far this yr - sneaking in a Tennessee pick here - and a Miss St MAN CRUSH pick  here and there.....In this game we love the Ole Miss D for sure - but it is offset by the potential letdown from the Bama game and traveling to a very tough place to play at Tex AM - this one to us is 50/50 coin flip and gonna pass on all accounts - total side and ML....Guys with better read on SEC can have at it GL guys we are not worthy
 
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Posted: #154
Like Clemson. I'm with you
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Walbanger - I spoke about this in thread maybe post 64 or around there. Don't know how you wager and manage bankroll. It was a 3% bankroll wager for me at +10.5. The lowest number I would take is 8.5 and would do 2%. Yes it is still value in our opinion but after that writeup they are sure to get blown out now! Ha. 

The idea is that I know you can only be so sure about a game. At 14.5 it's a 66% cover according to us going down to about 58% at 8.5 so bet less if u adjust bet size. We think its about 60-62% cover at 10.5. ALL estimates obviously I just do it to wrap my head around what numbers I will play. GL. 


Thanx for the response and good luck with all your plays
 
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Posted: #156
Mega, I like the Clemson play. Crowd will be extra loud because Petrino riled up Clemson fans by comparing the crowd noise to Syracuse.

The quote was taken completely out of context and Petrino didn't really mean that, but as a Clemson fan I'll take the extra motivation :)
 
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Posted: #157
Good luck this week, mega.     
 
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Posted: #158
Hope you kill it this weekend Mega, BOL
 
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Posted: #159
Can we get an updated list of plays and Hot Carls leans?


This forum is rockin guy demands it!
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Can we get an updated list of plays and Hot Carls leans?


This forum is rockin guy demands it!


Updated list of official plays would be nice. Thanks for all the info Mega much appreciated and good luck this week.
 
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Posted: #161
I think it's just these 3 so far

Central Michigan +10.5

Texas +14.5

Clemson -9.5

 
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Posted: #162
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

next play

Clemson -9.5 

write-up later - enjoying a couple retail stocks getting crushedAs a thank you to JCP i will go there and buy a 3 pack of underwear.

 Wont have time for more picks until tonight.

My man Mega!!! Now I have to play Clem....Since Ive been shorting JCP for 2 years 

Its the fade Ullmans...short margins.....45210834127297241 UNIT meth head ceo short play of the year!!!
 
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Posted: #164
Texas +16.5 now 
 
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Posted: #165
GL mega, great insights.  Looking for the "snot bubbler" of the week pick. Get em buddy. 
 
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Posted: #166
GL this weekend. Loving Wisc 
 
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Posted: #167
Mega any thoughts for was state and standford bro
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

Mega any thoughts for was state and standford bro
WAI

They have a write up on that game on or about page 2 of this thread.

 
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Posted: #169
 Just saw that . Sprry bud
 
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Posted: #170
Hey guys thanks for checking in today !  Could not get any time today to look at more games...GL this wk !! Enjoy the games and talk later

Barnstorm  you got it - that is it sadly for now - I'll be a bit upset if Tex closes at 17 - knew it might go 15/16 but did not want it to go to 13.5.....GL

Train 
 
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Posted: #171
megaluck
 
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Posted: #172
This is the greatest thread of all time.

Congrats on your $JCP short  When you bought the underwear hopefully the store wasn't rocking 
 
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Posted: #173
sst--- i didnt play ncstate last week cause of you. I owe ya a beer! Thanks!
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by UGA520:

sst--- i didnt play ncstate last week cause of you. I owe ya a beer! Thanks!

I'll take the beer, but it's undeserved...I misread your post and thought you were on Clemson -14 and I tried to talk you out of taking Clemson not realizing you were on NC State.  I hated that line either side, but I'm glad you didn't get burned 
 
 
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Posted: #175
Mega, as always, props for what you do.  You pass on good info with humor and no BS.

Not sure if y'all will get to the "fantastic" matchup of UAB hosting the Mean Green of North Texas.  UAB is coming off a "we might go bowling" win vs W. KY to move to 3-2.  Ntx on back to back roadies after getting destroyed by Indiana. (was 21-0 in a blink of an eye and 42-7 before the back-ups entered).  UAB has lost to Miss St (duh), and FIU, a game which saw them turn the ball over 6 times and still only lose by 14.  Ntx has beaten SMU and "who are you" U.  UAB not much better with wins over Troy and sacrificial state, before the win v wKY.

I use football outsiders numbers.  NTX is 125th, with only appy state an E mich worse, UAB is no prize at 82, but they have half decent offense which is balanced ..ranked 68.  They are home and legit shot at a bowl for first time in a decade.  I loved it at -3, and 3.5, was not surprised to see it jump to -6.5.  Still love it at anything under 10.  See a DD win for a motivated, improving UAB squad against one of the worst teams in the country on back to back road games.

I hope you get a chance to take a look.


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