NCAA wk 7

Quote Originally Posted by bmoser9:

Mega, love the tread. 

For my first post ever I ask for an all request hotline.

Kansas State vs OU. 

What do ya think?

I can't understand why they keep giving Snyder points at home. He is a covering machine with points at home.

Thanks for the picks MEGA. I agree with the Bama pick and think they win by double digits. The path to do this all depends on Kiffin and if Saban can get him to keep the ball on the ground. Cocker having his best games on the road this year but still shaky and I hear the coaches still say he has a hard time processing stuff on the field. A&M giving up almost 5 yards a carry on the ground and haven't played a RB like Henry or Drake yet. Collins is close to them but had a huge O line. Arkansas should have won that game and gave it up late. I think A&M is a good team but can't figure out why they are getting so much love from everyone. Like I said if Saban can get Kiffin to keep the ball on the ground for the majority of the game Bama should be able to control the clock and win by 10 or more. Just my thoughts but what do I know.

ADDING

Florida TT under 19.5  (Sports Interaction)

write-up in a sec  

LSU 7 Florida (46)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin pick em

This is one reason why we use the Sagarin line as a benchmark - just to keep us on our toes we always want to make sure that we do not miss anything....IMO - just like the AF / Wy game last wk - because the Sag takes stats history to create PR - sometimes you can see a weird number if a new QB takes over.....To us - watching a bit of Florida - Grier was really coming on and added that needed passing dimension....Having said that - Florida has a very good D - going against a one dimensional attack - and they are well coached....sooooooooooo we are going Florida TT under knowing that they could SHOCK the world however unlikely in a low scoring game......On the flipside - despite LSU passing game inadequacy - they have scored 21 45 34 44 45 so you have to respect their ability to put pts on the board.....hence do not like the game total as much as Florida TT under.

It comes down to this in our minds. Florida will not be able to MATRICULATE effectively in the passing game with Harris at QB.....He only has 139 career attempts and has only got significant action in one game this yr - last yr he only threw more than 12 passes twice - a 13/22 effort against Vandy - and a 13/32 effort against Florida St.....Now we think he may hit a play or two in the passing game of course BUT the key last yr was that Florida had a better run game - last yr ranked 41st and remember how they gashed Georgia for 80000 yds on ground running 78 qb sneaks and dive plays and kneel downs....This yr they are ranked #100 rushing - and Taylor is a nice RB but less than 4/pop....Do not see a ton of success for Florida on offense any way you cut it.....LSU should be able to run on that D - Tennessee got them for 254 at 5/pop so the game plan for LSU should be to keep Harris in limited 3rd and long situations and run run run ....even tho we might add that he has not thrown an int this yr......LSU has not been turning it over - neither has florida - this should be a quick game that both coaches would be happy to win 3-2.

GL mega

S Carolina 3 Vandy (43.5)

Megalocks line 3

Sagarin 4

No interest in this one....Normally like the coaching change angle quite a bit - just really disappointed with SC all around offense and defense not SEC calibre and now start P Orth just as Nunez was getting rolling (inj)....They just do not do much well and not sure how much emotion will carry them against a scrappy Vandy team with a #25 ranked D. Neither team looking like they are gonna get to 6 wins esp SC with that schedule - but to be clear - the loser of this game is DEAD.

Summary. NO

mega

THREAD SUMMARY

Plays

Stanford -6.5  (would play up to -20.99)

Alabama 3.5 -115 (would play up to -4)

Florida TT under 19.5 (would take down to 17.5)

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

S Alabama / Arkansas St 

Thursday games

Friday games

Hawaii / New Mexico (request line)

Florida St / Louisville (request line)

Big 10

SEC

up next - REQUEST LINE

Megalocks - "Making the impossible - possible"

kman - done

vorvan - no cash on the games tonight - agree fresno TT bit risky GL

chad

head dx agree on Bama; ya - Kan St never gets respect

prophet

BWS - agree

Spartans - stick with your gut buddy don't let us change your mind GL !

biggee  thx - check table of contents for guide to write-ups

jamesB

wmi

seppy - those look good - GL

oda

THREAD SUMMARY

Plays

Stanford -6.5  (would play up to -20.99)

Alabama 3.5 -115 (would play up to -4)

Florida TT under 19.5 (would take down to 17.5)

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

S Alabama / Arkansas St 

Thursday games

Friday games

Hawaii / New Mexico (request line)

Florida St / Louisville (request line)

Big 10

SEC

up next - REQUEST LINE

Megalocks - "Making the impossible - possible"

Beags

 REQUEST LINE

Ga Southern 30.5 New Mex St (64.5)

Megalocks line 28

Sagarin 30

There have been a couple of good observations by ALERT SUBSCRIBERS already in this thread - bottom line is that any way we look at it - it seems like a 28-40 point win for Ga Southern.....The dropoff at QB for New Mex St appears to be significant so would not want to be risking capital knowing the slugs are in there - We actually liked Rogers slinging it around causing havoc and destroying wagers on both sides  at least he could MATRICULATE in the passing game...Ga Southern can name the score - off a bye - BIG game on deck with App St coming up in 5 days our top 2 rated sun belt teams cannot wait for that we have issues....GS just runs the ball so well and can score from anywhere on that NM D.....they take care of the football....Cannot imagine anything other than GS taking NM to a -pound-me-in-the-azz prison but would probably play first half vs full game.

Summary. Lean GS. Preferably first half line minus whatever.

mega