NCAA wk 7

Arkansas St  4.5  S Alabama (58.5)

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 5.5

Well the collegefootballnews website preview does not even mention returning (?) QB Knighten and predicts that S Alabama will have a tough time on the road.  impressive work. We will strive to do better.  Probably why we do not read those anymore unless desperate.

This is a tough game to get a handle on - but we will say that if Ark St QB Knighten returns it really helps the Red Wolves' chances....He ran fr 779 last yr and threw for 3200....Only got into the games vs USC and Mizz this yr - hard to gauge anything from that.....Tabary has been ok in relief but in a game like this in which the loser is going to have a hard time making a bowl game - experience and the increased threat to run (if 100% ready) will make a difference in our opinion...RB Gordon went off for 200+ last wk....Ark St 17th in pass eff D despite their schedule in which they had essentially 3 automatic losses = at Toledo at USC at Mizz....Tough to know how good they are but our ratings have them #3 in sun belt and S Ala #6.....Home field should not mean much....FUN FACT....Ark St has played in the last FOUR Go Daddy Bowls - life does not get much better than that - and guess where this game is being held ? THATS A BINGO So we do not think home field will mean as much........Now of course on the other side - S Alabama cannot be ignored because QB play is decent - very well coached - and they have a nice win on their schedule at SD ST stay what you want it was OT but it was 511-305 in yds for S Alabama ....6 wins the last two yrs and also made a bowl game last yr we seem to discount them too often.....Their stats are also skewed negatively b/c they played a fired up NC ST team ad at Nebraska.

Summary. Lean S Alabama TT under 27. Do not think this game makes our card however....We say the vast majority of time injuries are overrated but in this case we think Knighten status could make or break the cover......If you like Ark St think the TT under for SA is safer. Also suggest an in game play you can watch the first few series and go from there.

mega

UP NEXT = THURSDAY GAMES

gman - thanks buddy

chopped - thx ! GL this wk

2440

cranks

MolonLabe - hope to find a good CPS play this wk but they are tough to dig up ....GL !

Teague

Vankiep GL buddy....thx

Prophet -  thx man - congrats on your scores ! Sure the picks are doing well but it is 100% not possible to keep this pace up so as always - play safe and GL !

relax dude -  yes the winners are finding us have had mostly fortunate breaks so far and we always appreciate the gambling gods giving us help when needed GL !

Train no doubt

breakdbookie - we summarize our picks usually once every page and provide a table of contents for write-ups GL !

vorvan - all is good - as mentioned this was a long weekend - had some great family time now getting caught up...GL

Wahoo  thanks man- kind words from one of the best ever - appreciate it - You know how it goes tho - hot for a while - then you cant pick your nose ...Just hoping to stay hot for as long as possible knowing it will end at some point...GL !

Deller

Blowout

SST

mbiddy

BYU GL this wk

Jayucla  will look at ucla game for sure

pickmywhat

lion - sorry no early tasters obviously ....Away with family this weekend had a blast ready to go again

Joe

Temple  

Warcameagle -  gotta check out Houston - GL

fuzzy

UGA

skipster

Chad - WYOMING !

tnt

runralphierun .......Many moons ago we saw ralphie run....wish you could post pix on here...How many of you remember Colorado / N Dame orange bowl with the ROCKET ......GL

Sorry if we missed anyone.....THANKS for all the kind words....It is a grind so we will do our best again but just cannot promise anything....

WKU 32.5 North Texas (68.5)

Megalocks line 28

Sagarin 36

Just to bring everyone up to speed on the week that was with North Texas - they set a record - BIGGEST SLAUGHTER FCS team over an FBS team - lost to Portland St 66-7 at home scoring in the final minute to avoid the shutout ........Our fav part of this story ??? NORTH TEXAS PAID $425,000 TO PORTLAND ST TO GET THEIR TEETH KICKED IN.......Never like to hammer on a team when they are at their low point but HOLY SCHNIKEES that was crazy - even tho PS was a small fav in the game......

So NT fires their HC. Starting a new QB this wk. But they get the JUGGERNAUT WKU squad coming to town who has done nothing the last 3 games other than score 56 49 58 while covering the vegas line by a combined 75+ points in the process ....Great example of a team overcoming killer injury - lose all world RB L Allen ? Have not missed a beat.....They can name their score even on the road in this one.....NT should have some early adrenaline with the coaching change - it is typical but not a 100% certainty - so that alone makes us question laying almost 5 TDs.

Summary. Going to pass on this one. N Texas is ranked slightly ahead of something called Sacred Heart in the Sagarin ratings so no score would surprise us just cant lay this many points and respect ourselves in the morning.

mega

double

 Dank - welcome to the forum. Will be looking at the LSU game in the next day or two....WK writeup is above....Leaning to ohio but need more work...GL !

Auburn 2 Kentucky (51.5)

Megalocks line 2

Sagarin 2

Funny. All three lines - "line" up. Tough one. Anybody with juicy insight let us know feels like a pass to us.....Mostly b/c Auburn is so far from what they have been yet we are not giving up on them yet....Apparently a QB competition again at Auburn probably both guys get in??? Hard to trust those guys and Tigers have had no real success MATRICULATING in the passing game and we do not trust their run D either....Slightest of slight leanage to Kentucky in this one - first ESPN Thursday night home game in that stadium will have Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy laying 8243905823409 imaginary units down on the Wildcats....We are just not crazy about Kentucky overall and the baby giraffe at QB but facts are facts - they beat SC and mizz and lost a close one to florida - we think our PR may be a bit low on Kentucky. CONFUSED ! arrrgh.

Meaningless stat with some meaning. Auburn 8-0 L8 at Kentucky but last game was 2010.

Summary. Crapshoot. Gonna pass. Was hoping to go under a higher totals but books got it right IMO.

mega