NCAA wk 7

BYU 7 Cincy (OFF)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 10.5

We did our analysis based on the fact that BYU QB Mangum is ready to go on Friday.....our BYU research team let us know that he has been noted as "probable" for Friday....The backup is a true freshman B Hoge who while talented cannot be expected to play as effectively.......

So given that assumption - the line seems about right to us -  BYU has played the 4th toughest schedule and really done quite well IMO considering the missing bodies hurting their depth on D (a couple guys expected back) not to mention their all world QB Hill.....Brown had a decent day running last wk - depth at RB an issue as well but with the balance that Mangum provides at QB - we think BYU can move the ball on the 74th ranked D.....Defensively? Cincy has TWO very capable QBs - in fact we prefer Moore guy looks LEGIT to our scouting dept but either way - as stingy as BYU D can be - they have been up and down vs good QB - good against UCLA - not so good vs EC - BUT think they were missing a couple guys in their secondary....Cincy playing the kind of disciplined football you would expect from a Tuberville team - #127 in turnover margin and #107 in penalty yards. Job well done.

The toughest thing to handicap here is the motivation. Cincy already 2 games down in the division and down the tiebreaker to Temple.....Now go out west for a rare game....BYU ? Their toughest games behind them what a tough road.....So not sure where their heads are at I suppose you could argue if they run the table they are 10-2 with a one pt loss to ucla and loss to Michigan which might get them in a good bowl game.

Summary. No read on the side. Total ? Waiting to see what number pops up - lean to the over depending where it is set - we have it at 62/63 with a healthy Mangum.

mega

Streak-king - will look at those 2 games buddy

chad - right now leaning Bama; we still have them in our top 3 very high on them

urban - thx for the ideas esp Minny

jchosen - welcome to the forum....Was very high on ucla heading into the season still really like them just a bad matchup IMO and losing Jack was a killer.....Respect your opinion bro and no doubt it could be a very close game - GL

jules - New Mex looks good

pappadoc

upside -  Only concern with KU is have not read if still starting true F QB and status of top 2 WR - last wk only managed 227 yards....TTech D bad but needing 24 points essentially (over 21.5) is not a risk we would take BUT if you have a good read on it go for it.....TT could probably give up 24 to Sacred Heart....thx for stopping in bro

deller - you can PM me if you want more examples of how you can read line movement better - Bottom line is that it is better if you keep it simple and always remember that you are NEVER going to be right all the time BUT it is possible to be on the right side of line moves consistently and it is very important - we have been on the right side of line moves over 2/3 of the time this yr and it has shown in our results.....It is not as simple as "bet favs early and underdogs late".....you need to follow the NCAA teams closely and learn to get a feel for which teams will be bet. Just a couple of examples from last wk....Wyoming was around 20....Jim Heist or someone released Air Force as a LOCK....Moved to 25....We hit it then as logically we just felt the line was gonna go down if anything who would lay 27-28 with Air Force with a backup QB in a conf game?....it went to 21. Guessed right. Miami was 8.5/9....We thought in this rivalry game it was more likely to go to 7 than double digits even if Cook played - ended up 6.5/7. Tulsa was 7....People saw the way they played vs Oklahoma and nobody likes to bet ULM so guessed it would go to 10 before it went below 7. Closed at 9.5/10. Just try and envision what side will be more popular and keep an eye on key numbers because often spreads gravitate towards those......e.g 3 7 10 14 17 21 etc

Houston 19 Tulane (60.5)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 19

A game we are going to stay clear of....This was one example of IF you liked Houston you would be best off getting it early because not only are they good - but they are a becoming a popular "bet on" team and nobody likes to bet Tulane soooooooooooooo now that we see the line approaching 20 we are going to lay off even tho we cannot come up with legit reasons to back Tulane other than 19-20 pts is a fair market price....Having said that we would want -16.5 to play Houston and +24 for Tulane which we will not see.

Tulane starts Powell at QB over Lee who got a concussion last game....Powell has a stronger arm a bit more mobility - probably not a huge step down for Tulane - but overall - nothing that Houston cannot handle....Tulane offense has been pretty mediocre this year - but Houston D has been living off turnovers #1 in Turnover Margin ....Tulane is pretty safe with the ball....If Tulane can get out of this one with 1 turnover or less they have a good shot to cover this game - Houston has given up 24 31 14 24 28 this yr so as much as we love Ward at QB for the Cougars - you better be sure you think Houston gets 40 pts because it is not unthinkable that Tulane finds its way to 17-21......Final thought - we are not saying do not bet Houston - but their OL has been decimiated with injuries - a cluster if you will - and while this may not kill them against Tulane - keep an eye on it. FWIW - Tulane did win outright at Houston last yr as a 17 pt dog not saying just saying

Summary. No leanage.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by Prophet1:

Anyone see where Wyoming has 5 out on defense due to concussions and 2 other injuries...all stemming from the game last week against Air Force. They're already bad enough on D but possibly missing 7 people is a big deal!!

What do you think about Nevada (-7) Mega 

 SPICY intel ...will have to look into that thx

seaoforange  thx for posting....Seems like Nevada or nothing this wk - will be looking into it - SUBSCRIBERS are on the ball this wk

Boise 9.5 Utah St (46)

Megalocks line 9

Sagarin 10

Another line that looks pretty tough to beat....Boise is just not a team you can bet against right now IMO unless the spreads start getting out of control - this one is still about right....Boise is a combined 204-24  the last 4 games not against the best competition but any time a team is on a roll like that you cannot fade unless like we said the spread gets stupid high ....the MCWEAPON and his 12 rushing TDs and receiving ability is on the injury report maybe more of an impact for totals players - we are not playing this game at all but you guys may want to keep tabs on whether or not he is a good to go.....Boise offense rolling with Rypien and their D ranked #5 - run D #2 - pass eff D #3 - number 5 in turnover margin....WOW....Again - we understand the relatively weak schedule but we could have said that since the dawn of time for these guys and all they do is crush.....You also know how much we love betting on Utah St - one of the best ATS teams going back even 10 years and with or without C Keeton at QB.....Myers has been doing great as we expected - run game coming around - D always solid - We think that perhaps the most under-appreciated HC and overall program is Utah St 11 9 10 wins last 3 yrs - 3 bowl wins L3Y - and looking at another nice season in 2015.....that was a HOT TAKE Don't mean to get so emotional but we love ourselves sneaky good under the radar teams.

This game is going to decide who goes to the MW Title game as the Mountain division looks to have the top 2 teams in the conf by a wide margin...BIG big game.

Summary. No leanage.

mega

keep it rolling buddy and BOL

UNLV 6.5 Fresno (54)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 7.5

Boy oh boy what a grease fire in Fresno - Just looking at the results or reading the local stuff - this team is just in a world of hurt - have not covered an FBS game all year.....Hurting at the QB spot....125 rank in offense and 107 in D....Have played some tough teams but UNLV should be able to win this one comfortably....Even with a "backup" QB starting - Palandech has showed some nice run/pass ability this year - and was a key to our 7425934795723489 star UPSET vs Nevada that changed the sports betting industry.....Hard to get our head around UNLV being a 7 pt fav in conf on the road - in fact - they have only been road favs 11 times the last 10 years (3-8) so not crazy about laying at TD but that seems like the only option here.

Summary - lean Fresno TT under. May make the final card - not sure yet.

mega

Son of a....hate seeing you on a game I'm opposite side on.  Really liking the points with UCLA.  I can't bet on a Shaw coached squad.  The guy is conservative to a fault.  One of the most conservative and predictable coaches out there.  Maybe stating the obvious here but it's going to come down to UCLA getting stops on D and not letting Stanford control time of possession as you eluded to.  When UCLA has the ball I think they have the ability to MATRICULATE (haha couldn't resist!) the passing game.  Stanford secondary pretty soft.  Who's softer UCLA run D or Stanford secondary?? I guess we'll find out. I'm taking the pts. Hate going against you but going with my gut.  GL Mega. 

THREAD SUMMARY

Picks

Stanford -6.5

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

S Alabama / Arkansas St 

Thursday games

Friday games

NEXT UP -  REQUEST LINE (New Mex game / Louisville game)

NOS - GL buddy

Montasaurus -  cannot disagree with you - we are also worried about how Stanford secondary deals with UCLA passing game....GL lets hope for a good game

Biggee ....That Marshall line looks about right - IMO if you think it is low - keep in mind that in their 2 road games this yr they have struggled a bit losing to ohio and needing 2 ot to beat kent - We still really like their D....Unsure about that one - GL !