Have a strong lean to Ark St in this one but think there is more value playing the ULL team total under - just think that has a higher probability of cashing.
1. Ark St D has been great this yr - D ranked 46 very good for a sunbelt team - run D ranked 21 - bad news for ULL.....Other than games at miami and at tennessee - ark st has given up 10 14 14 10
2. Ark St very good run game and qb only 3 int - Takes on a relatively wk run D this wk - should control the ball quite a lot
3. Both teams run first offenses and both teams good net punting - ranks 7 and 10 - should be lots of running and lots of long fields for both teams to look at
4. ULL QB more int than td passes; They lost their #1 WR - first team SunBelt Jamal Robinson who had almost half of their td grabs this yr and was going for over 17/rec - top 2 left avg 11 and 12. Not a huge fan of capping injuries as you know - but in this case - it is not about the side - but about ULL losing their best deep threat.
5. Ark St 35-15 L50 to the under. This is offset by ULL trend showing over at home
Overall think this is a solid play - ULL needs essentially 4 TD to beat us - This is a very very solid D they are up against. Last yr was 23-7....do not see it that low scoring this yr tho.
GL mega
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next play
ULL team total under 27.5
mega fair line - pk
sagarin - 6/7
Have a strong lean to Ark St in this one but think there is more value playing the ULL team total under - just think that has a higher probability of cashing.
1. Ark St D has been great this yr - D ranked 46 very good for a sunbelt team - run D ranked 21 - bad news for ULL.....Other than games at miami and at tennessee - ark st has given up 10 14 14 10
2. Ark St very good run game and qb only 3 int - Takes on a relatively wk run D this wk - should control the ball quite a lot
3. Both teams run first offenses and both teams good net punting - ranks 7 and 10 - should be lots of running and lots of long fields for both teams to look at
4. ULL QB more int than td passes; They lost their #1 WR - first team SunBelt Jamal Robinson who had almost half of their td grabs this yr and was going for over 17/rec - top 2 left avg 11 and 12. Not a huge fan of capping injuries as you know - but in this case - it is not about the side - but about ULL losing their best deep threat.
5. Ark St 35-15 L50 to the under. This is offset by ULL trend showing over at home
Overall think this is a solid play - ULL needs essentially 4 TD to beat us - This is a very very solid D they are up against. Last yr was 23-7....do not see it that low scoring this yr tho.
Mr.Mega how do you feel about Under 27 TT. I know the hook is important but I can see them being stuck at 24 trying to go for it on fourth for a TD and ending up at 24. Thoughts kind sir?
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Mr.Mega how do you feel about Under 27 TT. I know the hook is important but I can see them being stuck at 24 trying to go for it on fourth for a TD and ending up at 24. Thoughts kind sir?
rapstallion - would be fine with 27 GL buddy ! play safe - should be a good one but sunbelt games can be insane
E Carolina 27.5 UConn (55.5)
mega line - 19
sagarin - 27
Think there may be a bit of value with UConn - but hard to back a team that has not scored more than 21 pts all yr WTF and playing a team that is capable of putting up video game numbers.....Just not sure if we get the max effort from EC or if they will sorta sleepwalk like their last 2 non covers vs TURD SMU and So Flo.
summary
side - no leanage
total - no leanage
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rapstallion - would be fine with 27 GL buddy ! play safe - should be a good one but sunbelt games can be insane
E Carolina 27.5 UConn (55.5)
mega line - 19
sagarin - 27
Think there may be a bit of value with UConn - but hard to back a team that has not scored more than 21 pts all yr WTF and playing a team that is capable of putting up video game numbers.....Just not sure if we get the max effort from EC or if they will sorta sleepwalk like their last 2 non covers vs TURD SMU and So Flo.
always love the write ups, and will jump in with some info when I can dig into this board.
I am going to start with a true degenerate play tonight on the Under....I like the number jumping up to 57.5, and I will go the other way....same logic you use for ULL TT under, I will bank on them under your 27.5 and hope they keep ark st in check for less than 30....
Tuesday SunBelt Action!
Like the Ole miss play, and leaning toward laying the points with OSU....they are still undervalued IMO b/c the B10 sucks but they are still very talented and improving each week....
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Big bounce back week MEGA
always love the write ups, and will jump in with some info when I can dig into this board.
I am going to start with a true degenerate play tonight on the Under....I like the number jumping up to 57.5, and I will go the other way....same logic you use for ULL TT under, I will bank on them under your 27.5 and hope they keep ark st in check for less than 30....
Tuesday SunBelt Action!
Like the Ole miss play, and leaning toward laying the points with OSU....they are still undervalued IMO b/c the B10 sucks but they are still very talented and improving each week....
Mega, good to have you back and I'm glad none of the trolls got to you after a bad week
I appreciate the writeups so far, when you get to the ACC you may want to look into either Clemson/Syracuse under 46.5 or Clemson TT under (guessing around 30). I love my Tigers and Cuse isn't good at all, but Clemson is "Not even after 12 beers" dog ugly on offense right now, but man their D is so legit that Cuse will be punting all game.
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Mega, good to have you back and I'm glad none of the trolls got to you after a bad week
I appreciate the writeups so far, when you get to the ACC you may want to look into either Clemson/Syracuse under 46.5 or Clemson TT under (guessing around 30). I love my Tigers and Cuse isn't good at all, but Clemson is "Not even after 12 beers" dog ugly on offense right now, but man their D is so legit that Cuse will be punting all game.
johnny ....like that call tonight....No doubt the Big 10 is not very deep but the top teams - ohio st and sparty - are not bad - nebraska is also pretty sneaky....GL ! like ohio st for sure too
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guys
johnny ....like that call tonight....No doubt the Big 10 is not very deep but the top teams - ohio st and sparty - are not bad - nebraska is also pretty sneaky....GL ! like ohio st for sure too
wow - surprised a bit at this line - most of you guys are probably not - maybe we still think too highly of VT ?
VT ? well they are just killing themselves with turnovers and penalties and the QB not great either - 11 td 11 int for brewer - he is not horrible in our view - but frustrating - VT just ravaged with injuries at RB just no depth for them - have some nice young talent at WR.....D has been ok despite injuries - 19th in scoring D - 4th on 3rd down....#20 overall...Just think points are going to be hard to come by for them - Miami ? Well they are our team (dont hate us) and have been pretty entertaining this yr - but they are 0-3 on the road - at Louisville wk 1 with young qb was tough - at Neb always tough - at GTech??? puzzler.....Now VT at home has lost a bit of its cache since they started flatlining a bit - but this is still a tough tough game for anyone to win on the road - especially 2 teams that we feel are pretty close in talent level. Miami also killing themselves with mistakes - 114 in penalty yards, 113 in time of possession - cannot convert on 3rd down - 84th in turnover margin.......As you can see - the value is for sure with VT but just too close to call....slightest of leans to VT sadly if you can get 3/3.5.
summary
side - lean VT
total - no leanage
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Miami 3 Va Tech (48.5)
Mega fair line - pk
Sagarin - VT 4
wow - surprised a bit at this line - most of you guys are probably not - maybe we still think too highly of VT ?
VT ? well they are just killing themselves with turnovers and penalties and the QB not great either - 11 td 11 int for brewer - he is not horrible in our view - but frustrating - VT just ravaged with injuries at RB just no depth for them - have some nice young talent at WR.....D has been ok despite injuries - 19th in scoring D - 4th on 3rd down....#20 overall...Just think points are going to be hard to come by for them - Miami ? Well they are our team (dont hate us) and have been pretty entertaining this yr - but they are 0-3 on the road - at Louisville wk 1 with young qb was tough - at Neb always tough - at GTech??? puzzler.....Now VT at home has lost a bit of its cache since they started flatlining a bit - but this is still a tough tough game for anyone to win on the road - especially 2 teams that we feel are pretty close in talent level. Miami also killing themselves with mistakes - 114 in penalty yards, 113 in time of possession - cannot convert on 3rd down - 84th in turnover margin.......As you can see - the value is for sure with VT but just too close to call....slightest of leans to VT sadly if you can get 3/3.5.
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each other up !
to Tom Cruise's witchcraft to cover. 
.....ACC up next probably tomorrow - GL man and thanks for the note
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