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NCAA wk 9

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Posted: #126
Not gonna beat a dead horse as we had very similar thoughts on the UNC line, I was on UNC as soon as my book released the line.
 
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Posted: #127
Hey Mega, where do you get the information on Key Injuries.

I would like to further increase my own analysis.
 
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Posted: #128

Like that Arkansas/ UAB over total....

LSU under looks solid as well 

 
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Posted: #129
I'm with you on that UAB 23 - Arkansas 48 OVER 63

good luck this week

thanks for the great info every week much appreciated

W - P - Sooie!
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

S Alabama 14 Troy (55)
mega fair line 12
sagarin 18

Line is probably about where it should be - Would be all guns blazing on SA but they lost as a 20 pt fav last wk vs Ga St of all teams and are without #1 RB...QB hitting at only 51%...Cant lay the lumber in a conf game here - Troy ? Just pretty stinky - looked like they might be waking up then got spanked at home by 39 pts as a tD fav....yikes.....No way can call out there number here - They have beaten SA both meetings SU not that it matters.

Summary
no leanage 



fwiw, USA actually beat GSU 30-27

 
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Posted: #131
Bol, Mega.


 
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Posted: #132
locks bol
Dilaudid8
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



fwiw, USA actually beat GSU 30-27


  thanks MOTOWNER !!! crap - my scribbles in Phil Steele mag were wrong ARRRRRRGH. appreciate the heads up
 
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Posted: #134
thanks a lot guys !  really appreciate it 

Tyler - I use donbest site and covers matchup section for my injury notes- and for key guys usually check team chat forums on internet if guy is not 100% out but Q or D. GL !!


 
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Posted: #135
TCU 22 T Tech (71.5)
mega fair line 17
sagarin 25

We are gonna stay clear of this one - no way no how can we fade a juggernaut TCU team right now even tho we think they may be favored by a few too many - They are 5-0 ATS and are approx +70 ATS so far this yr - have WV next.....Tex Tech can score for sure and have been relatively scrappy this yr - covered as road dog at Okie St - did not at Kan St - typically not a good road dog tho - however we feel that any time they can catch 3 TD in a conf game - unless they are pure trash - cannot fault anybody for playing them....Biggest worry for T Tech to us is that they give TCU a ton of free points and game snowballs out of control - #118 in turnover margin and TCU is #6.....Total may actually be a tough low here but usually do not participate in 70+ totals.

summary
no leanage

 
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Posted: #136
Okie St pk W Virginia (65)
mega fair line - pk
sagarin - pk

One of the games of the wk - wish we had more to say - but the line is right where it should be - we thought pk and 66. If you have a good read on these teams - fire away just see it as a tossup....Both teams 5-2...both have one loss in conf - both are 3-3 ATS vs FBS teams.....Lean to WV on "form" but you know about our unnatural MAN CRUSH on Gundy  he just wins at home and covers at home - obviously its the same thing when line is a pk em - but boy do the Cowboys deliver at home - THE Crowd is Gonna Be Rocking Guy fav......They are still a bit raw but only gonna get better.

Was hoping for 3/3.5 either way to play the underdog but have to stay clear. Meaningless tidbit - last win by WV in okie st 1929. 

summary
no leanage

 
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Posted: #137
OSU season ticket holder.  No way I would bet on OSU at this time.  OL is having all kinds of problems.  The backup QB with very little experience before this year is having trouble overcoming it and finding receivers in a timely manner.  Have not scored an offensive TD in six quarters.
 
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Posted: #138

OSU simply isn't a very good team. Their 5-2 record is much different than WV's 5-2 record. OSU has beaten the worst 3 cellar dweller teams in the Big 12, Kansas, ISU and Texas Tech. WV has beaten Baylor and Maryland on the road. The Pokes will be good next year. But they are the youngest team in the country this season. And with the meat of their schedule starting last week, it's beginning to show. Stoolwater can be a difficult place to play. But I think WV has too much firepower for them.

Texas Tech is simply awful. The only team in the conference worse than them is Kansas. 22.5 is a lot of points. But the reason you don't want to bet against TCU in this spot is it is a huge revenge game for TCU. They haven't beaten Tech since they joined the Big 12. And Kliff "I like to look at myself in the mirror" Kingsbury beat TCU in his Big 12 coaching debut. That didn't go over well with a veteran like Patterson. So payback is hell. I doubt if TCU will take their foot off their head once they get them down.

 
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Posted: #139
Thx guys  appreciate the intel - W Va and TCU are plays that are hard to argue with.....Hope you guys kill it - Gonna stay on the sidelines for these bad boys GL
 
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Posted: #140
Jeez, I couldn't have been more off on ull. Had to go back and try to find what I missed. Guess who was ranked 114 vs the run according to FO? Yup, arky state, and that was exactly what I saw all game. They can stop the pass, not the run so much ...Sometime fluky things happen but this one was just plain wrong. Gotta do more due diligence.

 
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Posted: #141
next pick

Texas +10 -105

mega fair line 7
sagarin 15

Texas improving week by week and when you look at any year to date rankings - they are still a bit skewed from earlier on in the season when they were so banged up and QB was very green - Now Swoops is playing fantastic - Texas showing the ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game as well as run the ball......D has been very good - last wk iowa st sandwich game and they looked a bit shaky - but hey - K St almost lost to iowa st as well - yes that game was on the road - but do not see these teams as being 10 points apart.....Also when you look at how both teams played vS Sooners - Texas had a 482-232Y edge at a neutral site - K St was outgained 533-385 on the road - a bit of apples and oranges but have watched quite a bit of both teams and the stats of recent games lead us to believe that these teams are pretty close....Tex D 10th in yds per play - K st 50th....We absolutely love that K St QB such a gamer - but we are not playing texas ML - just believe that more often than not this game is not a k st blowout. 

GL mega



 
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Posted: #142
Looks like me and you will be on the same side of a couple and possibly few plays this week. I lean Texas as well. 

GL mega 
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Jeez, I couldn't have been more off on ull. Had to go back and try to find what I missed. Guess who was ranked 114 vs the run according to FO? Yup, arky state, and that was exactly what I saw all game. They can stop the pass, not the run so much ...Sometime fluky things happen but this one was just plain wrong. Gotta do more due diligence.


Ya we like to look for teams that look stinky but are improving at this point in the season and we just misread ULL - that was the key piece of info using hindsight a lot of guys nailed it and that was impressive - usually we can smell those coming but missed that one and those on ULL called it big time 
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:

Looks like me and you will be on the same side of a couple and possibly few plays this week. I lean Texas as well. 

GL mega 

GL Hammer  hope we can get that paper 
 
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Posted: #145
RECAP 

Plays
Ole Miss -3 -130
SJ St +10
UNC +7
Texas +10
ULL TT under (L) - worse than our BYU/Houston under pick last yr

Strong lean (line when posted)
LSU under 44
Cuse TT under 17 (no 17 out there yet - waiting)

Leans (line when posted)
Ark over 63
Tenn TT under (waiting)
UAB +24
Ohio St -13.5
Wisc over 56
VT only at 3+
Boise -7 max 

Ok so that is in order for those who care will be easier to find game you are looking for

SEC
Big 10
Tues-Fri games
ACC
Big 12



UP NEXT PAC 12 


[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #146
RECAP 

Plays
Ole Miss -3 -130
SJ St +10
UNC +7
Texas +10
ULL TT under (L) - worse than our BYU/Houston under pick last yr

Strong lean (line when posted)
LSU under 44
Cuse TT under 17 (no 17 out there yet - waiting)

Leans (line when posted)
Ark over 63
Tenn TT under (waiting)
UAB +24
Ohio St -13.5
Wisc over 56
VT only at 3+
Boise -7 max


Ok so that is in order for those who care will be easier to find game you are looking for

SEC
Big 10
Tues-Fri games
ACC
Big 12

Up next PAC 12 
 
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Posted: #147
crowd will be rockin in blacksburg tonight
 
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Posted: #148


sorry texas guys - Swoopes not Swoops typo 
 
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Posted: #149
Good luck buddy. 
 
 
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Posted: #150
Great thread Mega! Keep up the good work!
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