Quote Originally Posted by Pik-A-Nator:
What's up Mega?
I appreciate and look forward to your write-up's each week. They are very informative and helpful in my weekly picks. Thanks a lot. I saw you are rolling with UNC this week, North Carolina right ? I am new to handicapping football games and would like your insight on my analysis of why I believe Virginia -7 and Over 65 is the way to go .
I want to learn how to handicap these games. Hope to see your thoughts on this game.
Much Respect
Virginia -7 against North Carolina and Over 65. Let me explain,
1. Virginia is hosting North Carolina this week for their Homecoming game.
2. This matchup is a bitter rivalry.
3. Virginia has not beat North Carolina at home in the last 5 years. And, the number 5 is the magic number for me. My own reasons.
4.Virginia is coming off a loss to Duke 20-13 on the road. Duke is 6-1 at the moment, only losing to Miami Florida on the road 22-12. Duke has a solid Defense. Only, allowing 2 of their opponent's to score over 20 points this season. So, Duke ain't no punk. This was
Virginia's first conference lost this season. They will come to this
game prepared, you can bank on it.
5. Virginia is 4-3 this season. Their 3 losses are to UCLA, BYU with Taylom Hill, and Duke. All, 3 of those games were decided by less than 10 points each. They have only allowed 1 of their opponent's (BYU) to score more than 20 something points on them.Virginia has a solid defense, if you have'nt caught on yet. Their offense is capable of putting plenty of points on the board also, especially against North Carolina. I know they have been struggling to convert in the red zone but, against North Carolina they will do what they want in the red zone. North Carolina's defense is non- existent. They have allowed their opponent's to score 40, 50, and even 70 plus points against them. Their defense needs a lot of work and has had plenty of time to overhaul it, since the beginning of the season. Virginia's offense will score at will today. Their pride will be the driving factor. I don't believe Virginia's defense can completely stop North Carolina from scoring but, I do believe they can slow them down, while Virginia keeps scoring at will. I project a 53-38 score at the end.
6. Virginia is 4-1 at home.
7. They are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games of this series and 5-0-1
ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS to North Carolina at home, which i see that changing today.
8. North Carolina is 0-3 on the road this season.
I am a newbie to handicapping college football games. But, I pick things up really quick. I went 2-2 last night. Check my post.
I would like to know what everyone else thinks about my analysis. Am, I looking at this correctly?