Thanks a lot guys comments appreciated....You guys on fire already
smarter - hear ya on okie st our Gundy MAN CRUSH will be put to the test here - so good at home - but we LOVE ourselves some West Virginia gonna be tough game to pick at first glance but i dont think anyone can deny that W Va on paper looks tough in this one - need to dig more - GL
pecador - thx for heads up on memphis agree
fasa - nevada may indeed be a spicy one this wk Just do hard to fade the island magic as lion said in his post - definite lean at first glance to nevada and i find that hawaii connection on the nevada staff interesting - cannot hurt - GL
lion good posts
Navy / SJ writeup next -
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Thanks a lot guys comments appreciated....You guys on fire already
smarter - hear ya on okie st our Gundy MAN CRUSH will be put to the test here - so good at home - but we LOVE ourselves some West Virginia gonna be tough game to pick at first glance but i dont think anyone can deny that W Va on paper looks tough in this one - need to dig more - GL
pecador - thx for heads up on memphis agree
fasa - nevada may indeed be a spicy one this wk Just do hard to fade the island magic as lion said in his post - definite lean at first glance to nevada and i find that hawaii connection on the nevada staff interesting - cannot hurt - GL
[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS] SUNDAY EARLY TASTER
first pick
San Jose St +10
Gonna start with this one. You know our philosophy - look to back Navy as away dog - look to fade as home fav. Time tested and true does not work every time but it is usually a starting point for us if we can find other factors we like.
1. navy QB Reynolds no joke - easily in our top 10 fav college players of all time. Just so much fun to watch - Last yr's Navy / SJ St game when he rushed for 7 TD in 3 OT was just fantastic - got Vegas trip off to a great start - but we digress.....He has been banged up and even if he starts - has not been the same this yr
2014 43% comp 7.5/att 2 td 2 int and 3.6 rush
2013 53% 8.3/att 8 td 2 int 4.5 rush - 31 td
2012 56% 8.3 att 9 td 2 int 4.0/rush
QBR - yes option qb but still - 2014 28.9 last 2 yr 54,48
This yr running against above avg Ds
23 att - 42Y
19 att - 25Y
21 att - 27 Y
about 1.5Y/crack - SJ ST D is very good - #12 overall - however not great against the run- but played Auburn Minny and Nevada. Bottom line - something just not the same about Navy this yr - i mean lost 3 straight - then beat VMI.
2. SJ St has played navy last 3 yrs so are familiar - SJ St different team - but games were 27-24 12-0 and 58-52.....Navy QB hurt i think in 12-0 loss but point is - they have played 3 str yrs this will not be unfamiliar ground
3. SJ D last 3 games given up 256 221 277
4. SJ beat up at rb - but does not seem to matter - last wk used SLASH WR/RB/DB Ervin who ran for 96 and caught 6 balls for 59Y. Been getting excellent QB play last 3 games with Gray at QB - 276 265 322 L3G and only 1 int....Navy D has given up 34 24 21 31 36 30 to FBS teams.
What worries us? Well SJ St traveling. Well 2YA they won a big game in San Diego - and SHUTOUT Navy the very next wk (QB injury notwithstanding) Technically this could get them off to slow start. Navy does have N Dame on deck. But they are so freaking disciplined not sure that matters. What else? SJ loves to turn the ball over - better lately - but #118 in NCAA. Navy is #106 tho.
Looks pretty good we think. Of course a stupid-long writeup does not guarantee a win just wanted to share our reserach.
GL guys
MEGA
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[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS] SUNDAY EARLY TASTER
first pick
San Jose St +10
Gonna start with this one. You know our philosophy - look to back Navy as away dog - look to fade as home fav. Time tested and true does not work every time but it is usually a starting point for us if we can find other factors we like.
1. navy QB Reynolds no joke - easily in our top 10 fav college players of all time. Just so much fun to watch - Last yr's Navy / SJ St game when he rushed for 7 TD in 3 OT was just fantastic - got Vegas trip off to a great start - but we digress.....He has been banged up and even if he starts - has not been the same this yr
2014 43% comp 7.5/att 2 td 2 int and 3.6 rush
2013 53% 8.3/att 8 td 2 int 4.5 rush - 31 td
2012 56% 8.3 att 9 td 2 int 4.0/rush
QBR - yes option qb but still - 2014 28.9 last 2 yr 54,48
This yr running against above avg Ds
23 att - 42Y
19 att - 25Y
21 att - 27 Y
about 1.5Y/crack - SJ ST D is very good - #12 overall - however not great against the run- but played Auburn Minny and Nevada. Bottom line - something just not the same about Navy this yr - i mean lost 3 straight - then beat VMI.
2. SJ St has played navy last 3 yrs so are familiar - SJ St different team - but games were 27-24 12-0 and 58-52.....Navy QB hurt i think in 12-0 loss but point is - they have played 3 str yrs this will not be unfamiliar ground
3. SJ D last 3 games given up 256 221 277
4. SJ beat up at rb - but does not seem to matter - last wk used SLASH WR/RB/DB Ervin who ran for 96 and caught 6 balls for 59Y. Been getting excellent QB play last 3 games with Gray at QB - 276 265 322 L3G and only 1 int....Navy D has given up 34 24 21 31 36 30 to FBS teams.
What worries us? Well SJ St traveling. Well 2YA they won a big game in San Diego - and SHUTOUT Navy the very next wk (QB injury notwithstanding) Technically this could get them off to slow start. Navy does have N Dame on deck. But they are so freaking disciplined not sure that matters. What else? SJ loves to turn the ball over - better lately - but #118 in NCAA. Navy is #106 tho.
Looks pretty good we think. Of course a stupid-long writeup does not guarantee a win just wanted to share our reserach.
Back to it Mega Smiss outright winner, too bad I gave it back on a lackluster effort by TX. And I am likely on TX again this week
Looks like the markets agreed with the SJS pick - down to 8 at my book. Looking forward to your write-up.
Cashed with ULL last week. They were underrated and catching points?! Major SOS difference between ULL and TX st, who are among 20 worst teams in country. This Tuesday we get another dungbelt, but gonna fade ULL who is now getting too much respect. Opened at 3, bet immediately to 1.5, then back to 2. This line is ght. Arky st is the class of that conference, better SOS, and we love the fact that the betting world saw ULL romp last Tuesday. Not a big beliver in revenge, but ULL beat em pretty good last year so no looking ahead at least. FO has Arky stats good as Cal, Memphis, Duke, NW. So they are average at least. ULL is well below average, doesn't help that there top WR is likely out. Worried that "road favorite on weekday games never cover guy" will blast me. I preset this at 3 and was gonna jump on anything under a TD. love getting the -1.5.
So much dung this week, I'll try to sprinkle some in here.
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Back to it Mega Smiss outright winner, too bad I gave it back on a lackluster effort by TX. And I am likely on TX again this week
Looks like the markets agreed with the SJS pick - down to 8 at my book. Looking forward to your write-up.
Cashed with ULL last week. They were underrated and catching points?! Major SOS difference between ULL and TX st, who are among 20 worst teams in country. This Tuesday we get another dungbelt, but gonna fade ULL who is now getting too much respect. Opened at 3, bet immediately to 1.5, then back to 2. This line is ght. Arky st is the class of that conference, better SOS, and we love the fact that the betting world saw ULL romp last Tuesday. Not a big beliver in revenge, but ULL beat em pretty good last year so no looking ahead at least. FO has Arky stats good as Cal, Memphis, Duke, NW. So they are average at least. ULL is well below average, doesn't help that there top WR is likely out. Worried that "road favorite on weekday games never cover guy" will blast me. I preset this at 3 and was gonna jump on anything under a TD. love getting the -1.5.
So much dung this week, I'll try to sprinkle some in here.
Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
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Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
Bandos - great post - Ark St is on our radar - we wanted SJ St and Ark St as early tasters but did not play ark st yet - was hoping somehow they might be a small dog.....argh....waiting.........GL !
JP
Tyler ....Hear what you are saying - makes 100% sense - Navy is gonna run the ball well - but we are getting 10 pts - already factored into the line IMO - SJ St has played them L3Y and Navy has never won by more than 6....Also Navy D no good so believe that even tho navy gets their 300+ rushing - SJ is gonna move running and passing and do not see either team getting a big lead.....Just our 2 cents - thx for the post buddy and i see the risk for sure - just hoping 10 pts is enough - keep crushing it !!
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thanks guys
Bandos - great post - Ark St is on our radar - we wanted SJ St and Ark St as early tasters but did not play ark st yet - was hoping somehow they might be a small dog.....argh....waiting.........GL !
JP
Tyler ....Hear what you are saying - makes 100% sense - Navy is gonna run the ball well - but we are getting 10 pts - already factored into the line IMO - SJ St has played them L3Y and Navy has never won by more than 6....Also Navy D no good so believe that even tho navy gets their 300+ rushing - SJ is gonna move running and passing and do not see either team getting a big lead.....Just our 2 cents - thx for the post buddy and i see the risk for sure - just hoping 10 pts is enough - keep crushing it !!
Tiny bit of value on the dog who can put up points - and then give them up fast as well.....Lean to UAB here but will want 24+ before we get interested and it might just get there......
UAB very nice offense and balanced between run and pass - problem is they just love giving the ball away - had to double check some of these numbers - but yes were -6 in TO vs FIU and a couple other games -3....They have only covered 2 of last 9 on the road and the D is not horrible but not great either - played a decent game road vS Miss St....Think they can score enough to stay within 24 so will keep this one on hold for now
Arkansas - Great game vs Bama then turnovers killed them vs Ga actually outgained them - played auburn tough for a half - a lot to like about these guys - scored 73 49 52 28 32 against teams not called auburn or alabama....think they are gonna score a lot here but can they cover 24 in a sandwich game? Miss St next - Think the smart move may to be with the over in this one - UAB will be gunning until the end - Ark can put up points.....Waiting on total
Summary
lean - UAB (want 24+)
strong lean - OVER - waiting on total; Ark team total
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Arkansas 23 UAB
Mega fair line - 19
Sagarin - 20/21
Tiny bit of value on the dog who can put up points - and then give them up fast as well.....Lean to UAB here but will want 24+ before we get interested and it might just get there......
UAB very nice offense and balanced between run and pass - problem is they just love giving the ball away - had to double check some of these numbers - but yes were -6 in TO vs FIU and a couple other games -3....They have only covered 2 of last 9 on the road and the D is not horrible but not great either - played a decent game road vS Miss St....Think they can score enough to stay within 24 so will keep this one on hold for now
Arkansas - Great game vs Bama then turnovers killed them vs Ga actually outgained them - played auburn tough for a half - a lot to like about these guys - scored 73 49 52 28 32 against teams not called auburn or alabama....think they are gonna score a lot here but can they cover 24 in a sandwich game? Miss St next - Think the smart move may to be with the over in this one - UAB will be gunning until the end - Ark can put up points.....Waiting on total
Summary
lean - UAB (want 24+)
strong lean - OVER - waiting on total; Ark team total
A bit of value potentially on the dog so taking the fav is outta play - Cannot take the dog here - struggling so much on offense and Bama just put up 59 - say what you want - we still have Bama on a neutral field as good as anyone and not gonna fade them off a game in which they could have scored 80+.....Not sure how they sucked vs Arky so bad but Bama guys would know - we dont....Just think they are gonna start rolling.
since the GA game Tennessee has struggled on offense - vs Ole Miss and Fla D mind you - but it does not get any easier this wk vs Bama
Total? Not up yet - but we will lean to the Tennesee TT under ....Bama has showed the ability to put up some points so our guess is that the game total may not be the way to go here.
Summary
Side - no lean
Total - no lean
Team totals - lean to Tenn TT under - will wait for line
mega
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Bama 17.5 Tennessee
Mega fair line 13
Sagarin 14
A bit of value potentially on the dog so taking the fav is outta play - Cannot take the dog here - struggling so much on offense and Bama just put up 59 - say what you want - we still have Bama on a neutral field as good as anyone and not gonna fade them off a game in which they could have scored 80+.....Not sure how they sucked vs Arky so bad but Bama guys would know - we dont....Just think they are gonna start rolling.
since the GA game Tennessee has struggled on offense - vs Ole Miss and Fla D mind you - but it does not get any easier this wk vs Bama
Total? Not up yet - but we will lean to the Tennesee TT under ....Bama has showed the ability to put up some points so our guess is that the game total may not be the way to go here.
Summary
Side - no lean
Total - no lean
Team totals - lean to Tenn TT under - will wait for line
Miss St is a bad spot here ATS we think coming off wins vs LSU Tex AM and Auburn while going +45 ATS in the process .....the bye was probably needed to a "letdown" may not happen here - just think Miss St may be fully valued even tho they are still on our MAN CRUSH LIST
Kentucky ? A bit of a puzzle - Games vs Florida/SC look good not great now - unsure of injury and suspension issues - Cant step in front of the Miss St train here.
Side - no lean
Total - no lean
buh bye
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Miss St 14 Kentucky
Mega fair line 14
Sagarin 16/17
Miss St is a bad spot here ATS we think coming off wins vs LSU Tex AM and Auburn while going +45 ATS in the process .....the bye was probably needed to a "letdown" may not happen here - just think Miss St may be fully valued even tho they are still on our MAN CRUSH LIST
Kentucky ? A bit of a puzzle - Games vs Florida/SC look good not great now - unsure of injury and suspension issues - Cant step in front of the Miss St train here.
North Texas is weak this year and Rice always seems disciplined might take Rice in this one. SMU seems like you could profit betting AGAINST them ALL season (like the Oakland Raiders - 12 SU losses in a row) why not? No way on hell would I trust my $ with NT or SMU this year.
Fading SMU has been like having your own persona ATM this season... they 1-5 ATS
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Quote Originally Posted by Lionmonster:
North Texas is weak this year and Rice always seems disciplined might take Rice in this one. SMU seems like you could profit betting AGAINST them ALL season (like the Oakland Raiders - 12 SU losses in a row) why not? No way on hell would I trust my $ with NT or SMU this year.
Fading SMU has been like having your own persona ATM this season... they 1-5 ATS
Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
Playing Auburn and Minny both early in the season would have made any team in the nations rush yards agaisnt average much worse considering thats 33% of the stats for their young season....
Sometimes numbers can fool you. Also, every team they've played has the "possibility" to at least throw...Navy doesnt even average 100 passing yards per game and Reynolds is 27/62 on the season...which means he isnt even averaging 4 completions per game.....When you can focus soley on the run it helps, even if it is navy that specializing in it. You cant stop it, but containing it becomes easier....especially if you have played against it recently.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tyler2834:
Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
Playing Auburn and Minny both early in the season would have made any team in the nations rush yards agaisnt average much worse considering thats 33% of the stats for their young season....
Sometimes numbers can fool you. Also, every team they've played has the "possibility" to at least throw...Navy doesnt even average 100 passing yards per game and Reynolds is 27/62 on the season...which means he isnt even averaging 4 completions per game.....When you can focus soley on the run it helps, even if it is navy that specializing in it. You cant stop it, but containing it becomes easier....especially if you have played against it recently.
Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
Ya Auburn & Minnesota have yanked those numbers up a lot. If you take those games off then they allow 4.1ypc. not great, but respectable.
This year SJSU defense is pretty dang good. And Mega's point about their familiarity w/ Navy is a good angle. But it's also good to note that this is their 3rd DC in as many years. 2 years ago their defense was pretty good & they ran a 4-3 scheme. Last year the defense was atrocious b/c they switched to a 3-4 scheme. And this year Greg Robinson is there & he has a 4-3....it would be more important to find out what Robinson's past defenses have done against triple option teams IMO. & that's something I'm gonna look at while capping this game.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tyler2834:
Mega, does the fact that SJSU lets up 5.8 YPC on the ground 122th in the country concern you? Their run defense is horrid and all Navy does is run run run.
Ya Auburn & Minnesota have yanked those numbers up a lot. If you take those games off then they allow 4.1ypc. not great, but respectable.
This year SJSU defense is pretty dang good. And Mega's point about their familiarity w/ Navy is a good angle. But it's also good to note that this is their 3rd DC in as many years. 2 years ago their defense was pretty good & they ran a 4-3 scheme. Last year the defense was atrocious b/c they switched to a 3-4 scheme. And this year Greg Robinson is there & he has a 4-3....it would be more important to find out what Robinson's past defenses have done against triple option teams IMO. & that's something I'm gonna look at while capping this game.
Here is an exclusive MEGALOCKS TASTY TIDBIT of the week....Missouri scored on returns in 4 different ways last wk vs Florida - punt ret kickoff ret fumble ret int return now i know you guys probably knew that and every time i turned from the ND game saw Mizz kicking off - didnt realize this tho.....TASTY TIDBIT number 2 on this game - Mizz has managed an unreal 147Y and 119Y the last 2 games for a TOTAL of 266 in 2 games what in the SAM HELL is going on with their offense ??? I dont care who you are playing that is bizzzzarrrrro world to us......Mizz up and down like a toilet seat so even tho Vandy is PURE FILTH.....how can you trust laying 20+ with a team that lost to indiana at home and scored CACK vs Ga - were outgained vs SC....???? Not sure what to make of these guys - not a team we want to back here - even tho Vandy barely escaped beating something called a Charleston Southern by a point last game
Summary
side - no lean
total - no lean
avoid like that fat chick at the prom with genital warts
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Missouri 20 Vandy
Mega fair line 21
Sagarin 25
Here is an exclusive MEGALOCKS TASTY TIDBIT of the week....Missouri scored on returns in 4 different ways last wk vs Florida - punt ret kickoff ret fumble ret int return now i know you guys probably knew that and every time i turned from the ND game saw Mizz kicking off - didnt realize this tho.....TASTY TIDBIT number 2 on this game - Mizz has managed an unreal 147Y and 119Y the last 2 games for a TOTAL of 266 in 2 games what in the SAM HELL is going on with their offense ??? I dont care who you are playing that is bizzzzarrrrro world to us......Mizz up and down like a toilet seat so even tho Vandy is PURE FILTH.....how can you trust laying 20+ with a team that lost to indiana at home and scored CACK vs Ga - were outgained vs SC....???? Not sure what to make of these guys - not a team we want to back here - even tho Vandy barely escaped beating something called a Charleston Southern by a point last game
Summary
side - no lean
total - no lean
avoid like that fat chick at the prom with genital warts
Ya Auburn & Minnesota have yanked those numbers up a lot. If you take those games off then they allow 4.1ypc. not great, but respectable.
This year SJSU defense is pretty dang good. And Mega's point about their familiarity w/ Navy is a good angle. But it's also good to note that this is their 3rd DC in as many years. 2 years ago their defense was pretty good & they ran a 4-3 scheme. Last year the defense was atrocious b/c they switched to a 3-4 scheme. And this year Greg Robinson is there & he has a 4-3....it would be more important to find out what Robinson's past defenses have done against triple option teams IMO. & that's something I'm gonna look at while capping this game.
hammers thanks for the post - excellent points - i am hopeful that the 10 pt buffer will be enough - GL this wk
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Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:
Ya Auburn & Minnesota have yanked those numbers up a lot. If you take those games off then they allow 4.1ypc. not great, but respectable.
This year SJSU defense is pretty dang good. And Mega's point about their familiarity w/ Navy is a good angle. But it's also good to note that this is their 3rd DC in as many years. 2 years ago their defense was pretty good & they ran a 4-3 scheme. Last year the defense was atrocious b/c they switched to a 3-4 scheme. And this year Greg Robinson is there & he has a 4-3....it would be more important to find out what Robinson's past defenses have done against triple option teams IMO. & that's something I'm gonna look at while capping this game.
hammers thanks for the post - excellent points - i am hopeful that the 10 pt buffer will be enough - GL this wk
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comments appreciated....You guys on fire already
our Gundy MAN CRUSH 
will be put to the test here - so good at home - but we LOVE ourselves some West Virginia 
gonna be tough game to pick at first glance but i dont think anyone can deny that W Va on paper looks tough in this one - need to dig more - GL
Just do hard to fade the island magic as lion said in his post - definite lean at first glance to nevada and i find that hawaii connection on the nevada staff interesting - cannot hurt - GL
Smiss outright winner, too bad I gave it back on a lackluster effort by TX. And I am likely on TX again this week
…I love Ya, but your a Crazy Man!
great post - Ark St is on our radar - we wanted SJ St and Ark St as early 
....waiting.........GL !
now i know you guys probably knew that and every time i turned from the ND game saw Mizz kicking off - didnt realize this tho.....TASTY TIDBIT number 2 on this game - Mizz has managed an unreal 147Y and 119Y the last 2 games for a TOTAL of 266 in 2 games 
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