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NCAA wk 9

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

WARNING SEC WRITE-UPS COMING NEXT 

ALL 6 GAMES

REMAIN CALM 

  Keep Calm
        &
Sing "Soft Kitty"

    
 
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Posted: #52
Auburn 17.5 S Carolina
Mega fair line - 14
Sagarin - 20

Not sure about this one either - just not going to fade Auburn unless it is against another top team - this is another squad we have rated maybe too high but have done nothing wrong really this yr - Miss St game a bit disappointing but how many teams are gonna beat them on the road?? So well coached - off a bye - 21th ranked offense and D ranked 26...take care of the ball....not a smart fade.

S Carolina ? Well they have playmakers - also well coached - that D is our biggest worry obviously - also do not like when teams are moving up in class big time off 3-5 easy games - SC just faced vandy missouri kentukcky and furman (assuming this is a team and not some guy named Furman)....and now get Auburn on the road??? ....Have shown some spicy-ability nice game vs Georgia at home - may be a bit of upside left here for those with big 


summary
side- no lean
total - no lean

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Temple71:


  Keep Calm
        &
Sing "Soft Kitty"

    

 GL this wk you money making freak 
 
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Posted: #54
Next pick

Ole Miss -3 -130

Was too slow on the trigger on this one and have to pay a bit extra - but just love this game. Keep in mind we are wearing a GEAUX TIGERS LSU hooded sweat right now - just have to stay objective as much as we love everything about Louisiana 

Mega fair line - 7
Sagarin - 6.5

Always learn a lot from the SEC guys on here - Example was LSU Auburn game but read about how LSU catching a bundle might be fools gold and they got smashed - saved me some coin. Now this may or may not be the same here......Crowd will be Rocking Guy all over LSU - but really - LSU D just a notch down and think that the one team LSU is gonna find hard to beat even at home is Ole Miss.....A team that has given up 6 TDs all yr - half of them in garbage time #sweetmothermaryjosephmarkandrandomdonkey what a defense and #1 in NCAA in scoring D - LSU is gonna find it tough to MATRICULATE in the passing game - QB hittting 50%  and only 84 110 157 yds passing vs quality Ds.....vs Ole Miss D ranked 3rd in passing eff D....Now LSU has a nice deep run game- but Ole Miss can stuff that too - ranked #6 in run D.....LSU can try and make this game a SNOT BUBBLER and run and play D - but will not work as well with a below LSU standards D IMO. Pts gonna be tough for LSU - but they have shown the ability to strike deep - and FGs are automatic - so we think they can get a TD and 2 FG. 13 pts - can Ole miss get 17 - maybe 20+ to cover? Probably - may not have tons of success running but they are so balanced and do not make a lot of mistakes - think eventually they will wear LSU down - many Ole Miss games this yr - start a bit slow and then the waterfall comes.

What worries us? Well if LSU gets up b/c Ole Miss starts slow again - may be a bigger battle than we want....not impossible that is for sure - We are pretty confident that the probable #1 D in NCAA can win this game outright essentially - 3 pts not too steep of a price to pay - we thought it might be higher - were a bit stunned at 3 pts - then waited too long....had to pay -130.

Also strong lean to the under in this one unless it is stupid low.

summary
PLAY ON - Miss -3 -130
total - strong lean under- waiting for total

mega
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Playing Auburn and Minny both early in the season would have made any team in the nations rush yards agaisnt average much worse considering thats 33% of the stats for their young season....

Sometimes numbers can fool you. Also, every team they've played has the "possibility" to at least throw...Navy doesnt even average 100 passing yards per game and Reynolds is 27/62 on the season...which means he isnt even averaging 4 completions per game.....When you can focus soley on the run it helps, even if it is navy that specializing in it. You cant stop it, but containing it becomes easier....especially if you have played against it recently.


 
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Posted: #56
Summary at the first intermission 

Plays
San jose St +10
Ole Miss -3 -130

Strong leans
Arkansas over (waiting)
LSU under (waiting)

Leans
Tennessee TT under (waiting)
UAB (want 24+)



 
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Posted: #57

Although probably not putting forth their best effort, Cocks giving up 200 yards on the ground to Furman, has to be cause for concern this week, as they attempt to slow down the Gus bus..

Bama actually managed to play a game without turnovers and penalties last week ..

Miss State off of a bye, and Kentucky off of a beating.... looks like a bad spot for Cats to me, now facing a much more talented and physical team in the Bulldogs....

 

Great stuff  Mega

 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Summary at the first intermission 

Plays
San jose St +10
Ole Miss -3 -130

Strong leans
Arkansas over (waiting)
LSU under (waiting)

Leans
Tennessee TT under (waiting)
UAB (want 24+)




Still staying Calm and Waiting for a Good Pick!

"Soft Kitty, Warm Kitty, Little Ball of Fur…."

(JK--I do like your Ole Miss call, but looking/waiting a little longer)

 
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Posted: #59
I played ole Piss just a few hours before this post.  Line smells tho.  I would think Ole Piss is -14 at home...If this was a veteran LSU team with a potential extra gear, maybe but its not.  Its a 1 unit affair.  Strangely enough, I'd feel more comfortable laying a TD.

FYI.  ULL moved up 17 (!) places in S+P after win vs awful TX st.  -2 is a bargain.  Sag has it at -6.

Let's get back to fading the ugly.   Nothing uglier than Uconn.  Wearing my Uconn bball champs t shirt, but man, this is hard to watch.  ECU off bye, temple next - no big shakes there.  Uconn plays a bit of D but no O.  So two ATS losses vs ugly S FL and ugliest SMU. With the Nat;l TV angle, I think we see a motivated, rested ECU team.  52-10.

So you know the good thing about losing a 2 unit play on the Chipps last week???  I get to make it back double on the Chipps and fading bogus Ball st this week.  Chipps outgain Ball by 150 yet turn the ball over 5 times en route to loss.  Now we get better numbers on both squads.  Ball St. is just awful.  Bottom 10 in nation.  The spot is almost too good.  Akron beats Pitt, cruises past E Mich, and Mia Oh.  Overlooks OH.  And loses starting QB.  LOSES to OH.  But they are kids, no?Let's hope thats the wake up call I think it will be.  And the QB situation  Well, Pohl got benched in favor of Woodson so the coaching staff has a lot of confidence in whoever plays.  Akron is world's better than Ball St overall.  -1 is a silly number, but I see why it got generated - Ball st win vs Chipps, and akron loss vs OH.  Great spot for the Zips.

As far as Chipps - they get Buffalo who just fired their coach.  With good reason - they are bottom 10 in country.  As above, Chipps get no respect on line for fumbling away last game.  Doesn't change that they are getting healthier, and need to win 3/4 to go bowling .  Highly motivated vs...meh....I'll take highly motivated.


 
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Posted: #60
The teams name is Ole Miss... You ignorant pos.
If you bet on them call them their proper name.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Missouri 20 Vandy Mega fair line 21Sagarin 25Here is an exclusive MEGALOCKS TASTY TIDBIT of the week....Missouri scored on returns in 4 different ways last wk vs Florida - punt ret kickoff ret fumble ret int return now i know you guys probably knew that and every time i turned from the ND game saw Mizz kicking off - didnt realize this tho.....TASTY TIDBIT number 2 on this game - Mizz has managed an unreal 147Y and 119Y the last 2 games for a TOTAL of 266 in 2 games  what in the SAM HELL is going on with their offense ??? I dont care who you are playing that is bizzzzarrrrro world to us......Mizz up and down like a toilet seat so even tho Vandy is PURE FILTH.....how can you trust laying 20+ with a team that lost to indiana at home and scored CACK vs Ga - were outgained vs SC....???? Not sure what to make of these guys - not a team we want to back here - even tho Vandy barely escaped beating something called a Charleston Southern by a point last gameSummaryside - no leantotal - no leanavoid like that fat chick at the prom with genital warts


U crack me up every week MEGA. Anyway just want to stop by to wish u luck this week. I know u get it all back this week. I can feel it..:)
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Next pickOle Miss -3 -130Was too slow on the trigger on this one and have to pay a bit extra - but just love this game. Keep in mind we are wearing a GEAUX TIGERS LSU hooded sweat right now - just have to stay objective as much as we love everything about Louisiana Mega fair line - 7Sagarin - 6.5Always learn a lot from the SEC guys on here - Example was LSU Auburn game but read about how LSU catching a bundle might be fools gold and they got smashed - saved me some coin. Now this may or may not be the same here......Crowd will be Rocking Guy all over LSU - but really - LSU D just a notch down and think that the one team LSU is gonna find hard to beat even at home is Ole Miss.....A team that has given up 6 TDs all yr - half of them in garbage time #sweetmothermaryjosephmarkandrandomdonkey what a defense and #1 in NCAA in scoring D - LSU is gonna find it tough to MATRICULATE in the passing game - QB hittting 50%  and only 84 110 157 yds passing vs quality Ds.....vs Ole Miss D ranked 3rd in passing eff D....Now LSU has a nice deep run game- but Ole Miss can stuff that too - ranked #6 in run D.....LSU can try and make this game a SNOT BUBBLER and run and play D - but will not work as well with a below LSU standards D IMO. Pts gonna be tough for LSU - but they have shown the ability to strike deep - and FGs are automatic - so we think they can get a TD and 2 FG. 13 pts - can Ole miss get 17 - maybe 20+ to cover? Probably - may not have tons of success running but they are so balanced and do not make a lot of mistakes - think eventually they will wear LSU down - many Ole Miss games this yr - start a bit slow and then the waterfall comes.What worries us? Well if LSU gets up b/c Ole Miss starts slow again - may be a bigger battle than we want....not impossible that is for sure - We are pretty confident that the probable #1 D in NCAA can win this game outright essentially - 3 pts not too steep of a price to pay - we thought it might be higher - were a bit stunned at 3 pts - then waited too long....had to pay -130.Also strong lean to the under in this one unless it is stupid low.summaryPLAY ON - Miss -3 -130total - strong lean under- waiting for totalmega


I think O/U is going to be like 40.. Very low.. Love Ole Miss.. :)
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Missouri 20 Vandy 
Mega fair line 21
Sagarin 25

Here is an exclusive MEGALOCKS TASTY TIDBIT of the week....Missouri scored on returns in 4 different ways last wk vs Florida - punt ret kickoff ret fumble ret int return now i know you guys probably knew that and every time i turned from the ND game saw Mizz kicking off - didnt realize this tho.....TASTY TIDBIT number 2 on this game - Mizz has managed an unreal 147Y and 119Y the last 2 games for a TOTAL of 266 in 2 games  what in the SAM HELL is going on with their offense ??? I dont care who you are playing that is bizzzzarrrrro world to us......Mizz up and down like a toilet seat so even tho Vandy is PURE FILTH.....how can you trust laying 20+ with a team that lost to indiana at home and scored CACK vs Ga - were outgained vs SC....???? Not sure what to make of these guys - not a team we want to back here - even tho Vandy barely escaped beating something called a Charleston Southern by a point last game

Summary
side - no lean
total - no lean

avoid like that fat chick at the prom with genital warts



By the time you see the genital warts, it's too late. At that point, you're committed.
 
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Posted: #64
SJ St looks really good... also gotta figure that LSU under play is a strong one... looks like a 17-13 type of game, unless the defenses can do some scoring... 

 
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Posted: #65
Great write-up on the Missou-Vandy game... had Missou on my radar, but that offense is horrendous!
 
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Posted: #66
Apologies for brining negativity into your thread.

Mods please change my P to M.
 
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Posted: #67
hope you bounce back this week mega, i'm confident you will. Keep on truckin bud, will stop in later in the week to see your other write ups. Interested to get your take on a few pac 12 matchups (colorado and oregon state in particular)
 
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Posted: #68
Thanks everyone 

DJC 

Storm  glad you like Ole Miss; If they lose - they lose - just like the matchup this wk. GL

Bandos - thanks for the Akron heads up .....Was happy i avoided the Chips last wk even tho was tempted - tempted again this wk - missed the early -1 and now cannot chase due to new HC in Buff who knows?? no doubt who better team is just never know with MACtion 

shark - glad to see you like SJ and LSU under; think those are solid 

boomer 

temple 


Big 10 up next 


 
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Posted: #69
Sparty 17 Michigan
Mega fair line 17
Sagarin 22

The theme this wk in the Big10 is probably gonna be lay the lumber or get out of the way - Do not remember a week like this where it looks like the favs are pretty much the way to go in every game

Can't step in front of the Sparty train - rolling right along - red hot - 600Y last wk - yes vs a not so great indiana team with a backup QB - but Sparty has been pretty solid all yr - D maybe a notch down but still ranked #9 and #8 vs the run - bad news for Michigan who struggles doing anything on offense.....Michigan biggest problem pretty much- dumb mistakes (as opposed to smart mistakes - dont you love when people say that) they are #124 in turnover margin....Their D has been pretty solid tho - #10 overall and #4 vs the run....This is a rivalry game tho - more so for Sparty i would guess - but think we get a max effort here from Michigan.....Line is perfect IMO....No lean on side - Do lean to the under here only because Michigan D maybe a bit under the radar and Sparty should be able to stop everything.

Summary
Side - no lean
Total - lean under (waiting)

 
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Posted: #70
Corn 17.5 Rutgers
Mega fair line - 16
Sagarin - 20/21

We like Corn HC Pelini - if for no other reason than he takes no BS - and Nebraska fans know better than us - but as an outside observer - just like his no-nonsense style....Yes he has lost exactly 4 games every yr there - but we look at it as 9 10 10 9 10 9 WINS since he started and this yr - dare we say - they could get 10+ wins?? They look really good....Rutgers is a mess right now - that is a bundle of points just cant lay that many - but Corn has covered every game other than the near DEBACLE vs McNeese St.....Looks like another tough spot for Rutgers off getting their azz torn apart at ohio st travel to another hornets nest....They have shown flashes of playing some good football tho....Also HC has a very good record as a road dog last wk notwithstanding.

summary
side - no lean
total - no lean no clue

 
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Posted: #71
Ohio St 13 Penn St
Mega fair line - 11
Sagarin - 10

Even tho intuitively our thought was to pound ohio st like the secretary in Backdoor Hussies 9 - we had to take a step back and look at Penn St since we have not watched much of their play this yr - Well they are at home - Northwestern did not have trouble - but still that is a small bonus - D is ranked #6 in the NCAA and #1 vs the run playing some pretty decent teams - So while our gut says ohio st - the power ratings say not so sure - and the combination of a very good D, DD conf home dog at night - Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy is jacked up - makes us feel that there is a least a case to be made for Penn......Flipping back yet again - Ohio St has scored 66 50 52 56 last 4 games - D playing well....No way no how gonna fade them - This is one of the teams we have been right about - no QB did not look great against Navy - but give it some time and the guy to us looks like an animal - sorry - just impressed with their squad top to bottom....Just a lot of points.

Summary
Side - lean ohio st (below 14)
Total - no leanage

 
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Posted: #72
Wisconsin 11.5 Maryland
Mega fair line  -6
Sagarin - 6.5

No doubt you a paying a premium here to back the probable logical outcome - Wisconsin steamrolls them into submission with the running game - That is a very likely scenario - the problem for us is that while we cannot trust a banged up Maryland squad who is probably gonna get the worst of a bad matchup for them - This is a lot of points. We have this game -3 on a neutral field which may be right or wrong - But this Wisc team seems a bit off - They did not crush and kill teams like So Flo and Illinois at home - not even close to covering - now have to cover 11.5?? Their QB play has left a lot to be desired so far - maybe the bye will help? Can see the merit in both sides on this one given the 11.5 line- we actually were hoping for something lower than 7 - but line just too high - Note that the Maryland QB Brown who seems to get injured on every 3rd play is now really on the hot seat - the "backup" Rowe who gets a lot of action and had more yds per att and a much better comp% is now out for the yr - Dont know anything about 3rd and 4th qb options but thinking that if you are watching this game and brown gets hurt - might wanna break the $1000 button on in game wagering Wisc minus anything. Total lean to the over but it depends on how high they make the number.

summary
Side - no leanage
Total - lean over (waiting)




 
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Posted: #73
Love the Ole Miss play. LSU hasn't covered against top 10 teams in a very long time. GL this week MEGA!!
 
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Posted: #74
 tomMiEe

last big 10 game..........then boom markets open - looking green early


Minnesota 7 Illinois
Mega line 6
Sagarin 9/10

Not a game we are going to get involved in - did some digging - but just do not know enough about the Illinois backup QB situation - Illinois has pretty much done ok this yr - beat who they should - purdue loss looks better - got trucked when you thought they would - although hung in there vs Wisc.....Minny kicked a late 52 yd FG to cost us 29 trillion in ML dog wheel cash - escaped with a one pt win - they are a scrappy bunch - line looks about right here......Not familiar with either team have not caught much of either teams' games this yr.

Summary
side - no leanage
total - no leanage



 
 
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Posted: #75

Summary at the 2nd intermission 

Plays
San jose St +10
Ole Miss -3 -130

Strong leans
Arkansas over (waiting)
LSU under (waiting)

Leans
Tennessee TT under (waiting)
UAB (want 24+)
ohio st (less than 14)
mich st under (waiting)
wisconsin over (waiting)
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