Observations and Week 12 ponderings

MAC

Tuesday 

BOWLING GREEN (-7) vs Western Michigan - These two are part of a four way first place tie atop the MAC standings. The Bee Gees have won the last two meetings, but are 0-4-1 ATS as chalk this season. However, the Broncos appear to be outclassed here, and are 0-2 SU and ATS vs teams with similar talent (Marshall and NIU).

BUFFALO (-5) vs Ball St. - Cardinals have played much better than their 3-6 SU record would indicate. As a dog they've covered five of their last six games, including a perfect 4-0 in the MAC. And last week they gave Miami-OH all they could handle in a 27-21 loss. They need to win out to get to a bowl. The Bulls on the other hand are a win away from bowl eligibility, but need to play better than they have in their last three games. Last week they nearly blew a 38-7 lead at Akron before holding on for a 41-30 win, despite being outgained by 90 total yards. Lean to Ball St. here.

TOLEDO (-14) vs Central Michigan - The Rockets dominated the last two meetings between these two, but this season they've been anything but dominant, compiling a 1-5 ATS record as chalk. Last week they barely survived at EMU, winning 29-28, after the Eagles failed on a two point conversion that would've won it. The Chippewas need a win to stay alive for a bowl, but they've lost their last four, and are just 2-5-1 ATS for the year. If Toledo's interested they should roll.

Wednesday 

MIAMI-OH (-31) vs Kent St. - The Redhawks have won the last two meetings and SHOULD cruise to an easy win against the worst team in the FBS.....if they're motivated. The Golden Flashes look like they've thrown in the towel for this season.

OHIO (-9) vs Eastern Michigan - The Bobcats are part of that four way tie for first place in the MAC, and have outgained their conference foes by an average of 151.2 yards a game, compared to the Eagles at plus 31.8 per game. EMU gave it their all in a near upset of Toledo last week, but appear to be overmatched here.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-18) vs Akron - The Huskies need a win to become eligible for a bowl, and they should get it here against the Zips, who are playing out the string.

AAC

Thursday 

East Carolina (-14) at TULSA - The Pirates are looking to avenge last season's 29-27 upset loss at home to the Golden Hurricanes. ECU needs one more win to be bowl eligible, and this is their best chance to get it. They've rolled to blowout wins over Temple and FAU and could do the same here. Tulsa's bowl hopes are hanging by a thread.

Friday

North Texas (-2) at UTSA - The Roadrunners have won four of the last five meetings, including a conference championship win two years ago when both teams were in Conference USA. They've been a disappointment this season at 4-5, but all four of their wins have come in San Antonio, including a 44-36 upset of Memphis two weeks ago. UTSA rallied from a 24-14 second quarter deficit with 30 unanswered points to blow past the Tigers despite losing the yardage battle by 108 yards. They had a bye last week while the Mean Green were losing their third straight, at home against Army, 14-3. North Texas needs one more win for bowl eligibility, while UTSA must win two of their last three to be eligible. Tough call in this one.

Saturday 

Tulane (-6', up from -6) at NAVY - This is the game of the Week in the AAC with the winner likely playing in the conference title game. And if Boise stumbles the G5 playoff bid is also in play. Nobody in the AAC is playing as well as the Green Wave is right now, save perhaps Army. They're 6-0 SU in conference play, 5-1 ATS and have outgained their opponents by 181 yards a game, while the Midshipmen are 5-1 SU and ATS vs AAC foes, but have been outgained by an average of 8.5 yards a game! And five of those games have been against common opponents! Middies are tough at home though, so I'll probably stay away.

TEMPLE (-2', up from -1') vs Florida Atlantic - This is a battle of AAC bottom feeders trying to stay out of last place. Pass this garbage game.

Usf (-3) at CHARLOTTE - Bulls need two more wins for bowl eligibility, but they haven't beaten anybody that's any good all year. That's not to say the 49ers are any good. At 3-6 they're on the brink of being home for the holidays, and were blown out last year by this same team, 48-14.

MEMPHIS (-14) vs Uab - The Tigers saw their hopes for a conference title dashed two weeks ago at UTSA. Memphis is 8-2 SU but is just 1-5-1 ATS in its' last seven games. They hammered the Blazers a year ago, 45-21, and could do it again here if they're motivated. UAB has nothing to play for except perhaps a desire to stay out of last place in the AAC.

I love Navy and hate to bet against the Middies but I see Tulane winning this by double digits easy.  Tulane has a great run defense and they are just way better than Navy.  

@Super_Chicken 

They certainly appear to be better on paper, but games aren't won on paper. The line seems about right. It's a stay away game for me.

MWC/PAC 2 

Friday 

COLORADO ST. (-10) vs Wyoming - Both teams are off a bye and the Cowboys have won the last three meetings. Wyoming was eliminated from post season play at the end of October, but they still put forth a solid effort at New Mexico two weeks ago, amassing 604 total yards in a 49-45 win. The Rams are a perfect 4-0 in MWC play and have cashed six straight tickets, but in their last two wins, 17-6 over New Mexico, and 38-21 at Nevada, they were outgained by a cumulative total of 240 yards! That makes me leery about laying double digits here, even though CSU has everything to play for with a shot at the MWC title on the line.

Saturday 

Hawaii (-2') at UTAH ST. - Both teams were eliminated from bowl consideration last week. The Rainbow Warriors look like the better team here, but this one will come down to which one is more motivated.

Oregon St. (-4) at AIR FORCE - Service academies will always play hard, even when there's nothing to play for except pride. The Flyboys proved that by snapping their seven game losing streak with a 36-28 upset win over Fresno. They rushed for a season high 344 yards (4.3 YPR) and held the Bulldogs to -5 yards on 12 carries in their best effort of the season. The Beavers have dropped their last four SU and their last five ATS, and have committed 12 turnovers in their last five games with only three takeaways. Not exactly a recipe for success. With Oregon St. spiraling downward, I'm leaning Air Force here, as they seem to have found a pulse, albeit for one game 

Boise St. (-13') at SAN JOSE - The Broncos are off their sloppiest game of the season, but held off upset minded Nevada, 28-21. The Wolf Pack were the latest team to load the box in an effort to stop Ashton Jeanty, but he still busted loose for 209 yards on 34 carries, the fourth straight game he's carried the ball over 30 times! QB Maddux Madsen was off target all night and completed just nine of his 20 passes for 119 yards, a week after throwing for a career best 307 yards and four TDs vs SDSU. The Spartans can be dangerous, but don't appear to have enough defense to slow down Jeanty and company. Still, laying double digits on the road ain't something I'm eager to do.

Washington St. (-13, down from -13') at NEW MEXICO - The Cougars are 8-1 overall, 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS  away from Pullman, but they're 0-4 in the stats. They're also giving up over 5.4 yards per rush vs FBS teams this year and face a Lobos team that has rushed for a whopping 712 yards in their last two games (11.1 YPR)! For the season QB Devon Dampier and RB Eli Sanders have been a two headed monster, leading New Mexico with a combined 1696 yards on the ground and averaging 7.4 YPR! With the Cougs only averaging 25.5 points per game on the road, and both teams able to run the ball and eat up clock, I like New Mexico to keep this one inside the big number.

UNLV (-20, up from -19') vs San Diego St. - The Rebels escaped Hawaii with a 29-27 win and now return home, needing to win out and hoping Colorado St. loses a game in order to return to the MWC championship game. The Aztecs are on a three game skid and need to win out for bowl eligibility. Probably not gonna happen.

great read 

@Super_Chicken

 I agree… I think Tulane is almost at elite level…. They have done some good down there,,, they play the big boys very tough these days. 

Good stuff bud  I agree Toledo could roll but might they be peeking ahead to a more important match with Ohio next week.  

Love the write ups, especially MAC & AAC. 

Was happy to be on SJSU last week +3 & a small ML sprinkle, not sure I want to stand in front of the Jeanty train this week. 

BOL and thanks for your work.

@UGACLP1995

@Mskeets

DegenNaysh

@Boisestateand8

 Leaning Utah state....thanks for the write ups....

@Boisestateand8

 I think if Hawaii wins out they are bowl eligible. BTW, you're write-ups are fantastic. Thank You!

BIG Ten

Friday

WASHINGTON (-3') vs Ucla - There's some value in this line based on results from the past several weeks. The Bruins have won three straight after a 1-5 start, including a 20-17 home upset of Iowa last Friday in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. UCLA rushed for 211 yards (5.4 YPR) and held the ball for over 37 minutes, while holding the Hawkeyes and Kaleb Johnson to just 80 yards on the ground (2.6 YPR). The Huskies were mauled at Penn St. 35-6, and have a short week to prepare after arriving back home at 5 am Sunday morning. But while UDub has lost three of its' last four, they're 5-0 SU at Husky Stadium this season, and with a trip to #1 Oregon on deck they better win this one if they want to go bowling. Lean to Washington.

Saturday 

Ohio St. (-28', down from -30') at NORTHWESTERN - This one will be played at Wrigley field. The Wildcats are off a bye, a week after a 26-20 overtime win at Purdue. Hard to see them putting up much resistance here, but the Buckeyes may have one eye on next week when they host unbeaten Indiana.

ILLINOIS (-2', down from -3') vs Michigan St. - Since their big win over Michigan, which made them bowl eligible, the Illini have lost two straight, and in their last five games they've allowed 969 yards rushing (over 5.2 YPR). The Spartans SHOULD be able to exploit that weakness (after all, lowly Purdue did to the tune of 239 yards!), and Jonathan Smith IS 17-6 in his career as a road dog. What will probably keep me off Sparty though is that In losing five of their last six games they've committed 12 turnovers! But after facing Ohio St., Oregon, Iowa, Michigan and Indiana they do catch a scheduling break here.

Penn St. (-29', up from -28) at PURDUE - The Nittany Lions can name the score in this one. The Boilermakers are waving the white flag on the season.

USC (-9) vs Nebraska - It's Homecoming for the Trojans, who have played their best ball in the Coliseum (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS). USC needs to win two of their last three to qualify for a bowl. The Cornhuskers have dropped three straight, after a 5-1 start, and in their last game were upset by UCLA at home, 27-20, in dominating fashion. QB Dylan Raiola looks like he's regressed somewhat since the start of the season.

MARYLAND (-6, up from -4) vs Rutgers - The Terrapins have won the last three meetings by a combined score of 119-40. Both teams have lost four of their last five and are in danger of missing out on a bowl, but the Scarlet Knights DID just end a four game skid with a 26-19 home upset of red-hot Minnesota. The Terps hope to stop the bleeding after back to back blowout losses at Minny and at Oregon.

Oregon (-14, up from -13') at WISCONSIN - The Ducks sputtered to a 39-18 win at home over Maryland in their last outing, but they've been dominant away from Eugene this season, winning all four games by at least 21 points. The thing to remember about Oregon is that they'll keep playing until the final gun regardless of the score. Case in point; they led Michigan 31-17 late in the game two weeks ago and could've taken a knee to end the game, but Dan Lanning elected to go for another score with 25 seconds left, and even admitted later he was going for style points. The Badgers have lost two straight by double digits, at home to Penn St.,28-13, and at Iowa, 42-10, and appear to be overmatched here. I'm leaning Oregon in this one.

@lmb4321

 Scoring isn't a problem for Utah St. But man oh man that defense.....or maybe I should say "efense" since there's no "D" in Logan. BOL 

@Biscuiteater1

 Agreement on Toledo.

@gcowboy

 Hawaii has two wins over FCS opponents, so they'd need seven wins to qualify for a bowl.

Thanks for your comments everyone!