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PURDUE SEASON WIN TOTAL BET + OHIO @ PURDUE (Week 2): MEGA Write-UP that will make your eyes bleed!

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Posted: #1
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Season Win Total Pick: Purdue OVER 2.5 wins -140.

Week 2: Purdue -1 over Ohio

Here is what you are thinking right now: "This guy gave me Purdue over 4.5 wins last year and I lost. I'm not playing Purdue again and losing again! I'm outta here!"

To quote the immortal KGB: Bad judgment! (Russian accent included)...

Let me tell you something about that 4.5 win total. NO ONE expected Daryll Hazell to get fired at 3-3. NO ONE, it was his best record BY FAR in his entire tenure. That season win total was CENTERED around Hazell staying and doing everything to get to a bowl or at least sniffing one with 5 wins. The plan was to have 4 wins going into the final game vs. Indiana and taking it down. Purdue is always a live dog vs. Indy.

Instead he was replaced by a coach who was a nice guy, but knew nothing of head coaching, and it cost them 6 straight losses. Result? Bet blown up. They ended the season with 3 wins, could have easily won in Indiana with one defensive stop and were the better team for a half against PSU of all teams. And with Hazell they may have beat a 9 win Nebraska team. All leaps of faith but the odd choice to fire Hazell mid-season threw everything into flux.

In the end the bet lost. But last year was last year and a TON has changed here. What is that change and what can make you pull the trigger on this season win total?

#1 This is a HISTORICALLY LOW win total amount for Purdue

Archives of season win totals are not kept online but I have never seen a total as low as 2.5 for Purdue.

They don't get much lower than this.

I see ZERO totals under 2.5 for ANY team on 5Dimes. This is the bottom of the barrel.

1.5 is the lowest a book will even post. Even Kansas had 1.5 last year and beat that number with the books knowing 1 win was guaranteed with a win over Rhode Island int he first game.

What's the mantra here?

BUY LOW
BUY LOW
BUY LOW

It will NEVER get lower than this for a Power 5 school like Purdue folks.

All the bad of the past 4 years (and it has been the WORST 4 year stretch in Purdue history) has lead to a number like this for a Power 5 school.

That is as good as it will get for the rest of your LIFE. You leave this number on the table, you'll never see it AGAIN.

#2 Jeff Brohm

What do we get with Brohm? We get a CHANGE IN CULTURE. 

That is BY FAR the most important thing Brohm brings to the table. He was 30-10 at WKU averaging 44 PPG. That is exciting. That can get players to believe. That can inject HOPE into a roster of young men who had NONE of that for 4 YEARS. He will bring stability, leadership and a gameplan where defense will be focused and the offense can score (again something Purdue did neither of for 4 years).

If you watched Purdue at any time in the past 4 years, you watched a program at it's lowest low. 45 points given up in ONE HALF to PSU. That is a team that wanted one thing: Get us off the field and the TV screen. That was because of the culture Hazell injected into that team. A hopeless culture (albeit one that could have won 5 games last year as he was already at 5 with 7 to go)

And even at that, they still had the following:

1 win
3 wins 
2 wins
3 wins

They surpassed the 2.5 win total in 2 of the 4 years even with the worst coach and the most hopeless team in Purdue history.

Brohm provides a massive makeover for this team. He brings Tom Levine from Houston as his O-Coordinator and Nick Holt from WKU for D-Coordinator. He's also a former QB who can work closely with Blough, a QB that averaged 279, threw 25 TD's. The problem was he threw 21 INT's LY. I CAN PROMISE YOU he will cut down significantly on that INT total. And that will translate into wins. And we only need 3.


 
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Posted: #2
#3 Why is this total 2.5 beyond the Purdue 'lowest low' stigma?

Their out of conference schedule has gotten (much) tougher:

They get Louisville, Ohio and Missouri. The books are saying they'll leave that potentially 0-3 and 1-2 at best. That is a reasonable assumption.

But what of the rest of schedule?

They get the following very winnable games:

~Illinois AT HOME (Illionois is naturally, awful)
~@ Rutgers (very winnable)
~Indiana in the Old Oaken Bucket game they were ultra-competetive in last year AT HOME and are always a live dog against their biggest rival.

One of those three games they will get a win AT WORST.

In the first 3 games, they are a 1 pt favorited over OHIO AT HOME. That I have capped as a win as you can see. So we have 2 wins AT WORST in those 6 games according to my projections.

Again, that is AT WORST, that means worst case scenario we steal one from the following:

Louisville 
Michigan (and if you watched the last Purdue Michigan game Purdue amazingly had the ball down 24-21 to win the game as 21 pt dogs)
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Iowa 
Minnesota (almost beat them last year despite the final score).

With Hazell coaching them? Likely all loses. But not with Brohm. Not with a rejuvenated offense. Not with a somewhat respectable D being crafted. There AT WORST can be one win over Minny, who they were very competitive with last year, or maybe a Northwestern or if Iowa plays ultra-vanilla. 

So go 1-2 through 3, win one from Rutgers Indy and Illinois and start working up to 3. This is very rational, very reasonable. If we do better than our worst case scenario we easily cover the 2.5.

It is the lowest season win total ever with a respected coach. You have to jump on it.

#4 The Running Back core and Your Worries

For as bad as this O-Line is (it's bad and not tested) and the lack of receivers (they lose their top 4 this year) we still have 4 dynamic RB's who can assist Brohm in moving the ball: Markell Jones, Brian Lankford-Johnson, Richie Worship and Keyante Green. All have different running styles to mix it up for Brohm and throw different looks at teams to move the ball effectively.

And listen, YES they lost their top 4 WR's but on a team this bad, defections aren't a bad thing. Clean slates can bring necessary change to reform a team that can do nothing but rise up from the bowels of Hades it's resided in for 4 years under Hazell.

Also, your worries about the D are legitimate: 38.3 given up on D last year. But many of those points came in garbage time. And Purdue was your number one WORST garbage time team. The team was dead. Give this team life like you saw in the Indiana game and they can be completive. Have them talking about an outside shot at a bowl of any kind and you'll see the improvement. Brohm, a respected coach, will come to the podium and represent the players with dignity on and off the field, unlike Hazell who tried to do it and couldn't.

When all is said and done, and you have a gun to your head to play a season win total, what number would you want here? 2? 1.5? You will NEVER get those numbers with a Power 5 school like Purdue. So here is the lowest of the low, and like a fine wine, it took 4 years of aging to get here. A number almost a half decade in the making! Think about that. From 4.5 last year to 2.5 this year and you get Brohm and lose a guy that lost games by an average of almost THIRTY off a win!

Consider that and consider taking this with me! Yes it is juiced but I'm not interested in 3 and 2.5 is all that is available on 5 Dimes right now.


FINALLY, this is a quick and dirty Week 2 pick within the 2.5 win bet.


 
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Posted: #3
They will beat Ohio in Week 2 at home. Why?

1) First, the line is IDEAL. We get a default ML at -1 in Brohm's debut in Purdue which should have the first sizable fan turnout in years with a rejuvenated, interested base. Can't ask for a better line at home where all we have to do is win the game.

2) Purdue has won 13 straight home openers by an average of 43-18. Yes 8 of those games were to FCS teams but if there is ONE thing Purdue does right, it's win home openers. 

3) Ohio is 2-10 vs. Power Five Schools since '07. One of those wins was over lowly Kansas of last year (a 1.5 O/U win total).

4) Ohio loses a good QB in Greg Windham who Solich liked to use in tandem with with Maxwell. They lose 2 of their top 4 receivers and 4 of their 5 from their DL. 

5) Ohio averaged #108 against the pass last year and that's not a good stat to have against Purdue, passing being one of their strengths leading the Big 10.

6) Look at Ohio's 8 wins last year and it is a schedule even Purdue could have excelled against: Kansas, Gardner-Webb, Miami Ohio, Bowling Green, Kent State, Toldeo, Akron were the 8 wins. Nice but nothing to write home about.

A ML against Ohio in what is essentially a must win after a likely loss to Louisville and then having to go on the road against a up and coming Missouri team. Take Purdue.
 
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Posted: #4
easy over. will win shootouts
 
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Posted: #5
I agree, Purdue will win in week 2. This spot has been had to Purdue in years past, but the culture is (had to be) changing 
 
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Posted: #6
Purdue's number is 2.5.
Rutgers is 3

Because both have such low numbers you have to assume a strong correlation between the winner of their game and that team's chances of going over.

Betting Over on both these teams is definitely positive EV with some hedging sprinkled in. If either pulls an upset (such as Purdue over Minny) you may cash both tickets.

This could be a rare opportunity
 
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Posted: #7
At Big 10 media days coach Brohm stated his program has recently signed a number of juco and graduate transfers which will only help Purdue's cause because these newly signed players are more mature and have college experience.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Bigfish75:

At Big 10 media days coach Brohm stated his program has recently signed a number of juco and graduate transfers which will only help Purdue's cause because these newly signed players are more mature and have college experience.

If you've watched Purdue these last for years, ANYONE, even the people who work the concessions could have helped them win over the product on the field so yes the transfers are good news.

Driver, yes there is a "middle" in the team total since they play each other with such low numbers.
 
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Posted: #9
Great write-up and I really like the play. I'm a Jeff Brohm believer and I think he will have Purdue back to respectability in short order.

 
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Posted: #10
"Michigan (and if you watched the last Purdue Michigan game Purdue amazingly had the ball down 24-21 to win the game as 21 pt dogs)"

Ah, just when did this happen???    

Last Michigan/Purdue game was a 44-13 defeat in 2012 as a 3pt dog.

Maybe your talking about Michigan State in 2015?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

"Michigan (and if you watched the last Purdue Michigan game Purdue amazingly had the ball down 24-21 to win the game as 21 pt dogs)"

Ah, just when did this happen???    

Last Michigan/Purdue game was a 44-13 defeat in 2012 as a 3pt dog.

Maybe your talking about Michigan State in 2015?

Thanks for the correction. It was MSU, not Mich in 2015.

But what's interesting is that that MSU team went 12-1 and lost to Bama in the playoff that year, a top 4 team in the nation. You have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a similar season for Michigan. So their performance against Michigan that year, if it had happened, would have been LESS impressive than losing to MSU 24-21 on the road in 2015. And god that was an awful Purdue team too. And to almost pull out that game. With Hazel calling the shots and a very green Blough behind center. Brohm and a mature Blough can do so much more this year.

Ory thanks.
 
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Posted: #12
Great write up Scal!

Off topic, but you might want to take a look at Hamilton this week in the CFL. They are off a 60-1 loss against Calgary (third largest loss in league history I believe). In addition, they are playing the only remaining undefeated team in the league - an Edmonton team that is 5-0, but only has 1 victory by more than 4 points. Hamilton had them beaten two weeks ago, but blew it. Seems like an incredible spot and I know you like looking at teams that are off very embarrassing losses.
 
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Posted: #13
Quite the find Livian

Worth a tail for a unit at a nice and robust Hamilton +14.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Great write up Scal!

Off topic, but you might want to take a look at Hamilton this week in the CFL. They are off a 60-1 loss against Calgary (third largest loss in league history I believe). In addition, they are playing the only remaining undefeated team in the league - an Edmonton team that is 5-0, but only has 1 victory by more than 4 points. Hamilton had them beaten two weeks ago, but blew it. Seems like an incredible spot and I know you like looking at teams that are off very embarrassing losses.

Eskimos 33
Hamilton 28

Every line from +10 to +14 cashes.

Great eye Livian. First CFB game I ever bet hits.

 
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Posted: #15

I appreciate your enthusiasm, and the 2.5 win total is very low.

But, I do not see how Purdue's run defense improves one bit this season.

Nick Holt at DC is simply terrible. You can quote all of the WKU stats you want, but take a look at his stints at USC and UW. He was loaded at USC and was the reason that they coughed up some winnable games. At UW, it was an embarrassment.

This is a guy that I have watched a bunch over the years....when in doubt, blitz. But when you leading or close, sit in baggy zones, bleed all day, and try not to make a mistake. Very surprised he is still in the game.

If Purdue run D cannot have a YPC average down near 4 (yes, 4 is the benchmark for Purdue D) then they will not win 3 games.

So, we are focused on the Ohio game and the Rutgers game. Both are winnable, but Ohio will run the ball and make the game short. Rutgers is on the road......both are also losable. The only other winnable will be against Illinois at home (they are terrible).

Brohm will make Blough better...no doubt. Purdue will score a bunch, but they are at least a year of off being competitive.

After last season, no more Purdue for me. Simply watching that team puts me in a bad mood.

But, best of luck with the bet and to all who tail.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

I appreciate your enthusiasm, and the 2.5 win total is very low.

But, I do not see how Purdue's run defense improves one bit this season.

Nick Holt at DC is simply terrible. You can quote all of the WKU stats you want, but take a look at his stints at USC and UW. He was loaded at USC and was the reason that they coughed up some winnable games. At UW, it was an embarrassment.

This is a guy that I have watched a bunch over the years....when in doubt, blitz. But when you leading or close, sit in baggy zones, bleed all day, and try not to make a mistake. Very surprised he is still in the game.

If Purdue run D cannot have a YPC average down near 4 (yes, 4 is the benchmark for Purdue D) then they will not win 3 games.

So, we are focused on the Ohio game and the Rutgers game. Both are winnable, but Ohio will run the ball and make the game short. Rutgers is on the road......both are also losable. The only other winnable will be against Illinois at home (they are terrible).

Brohm will make Blough better...no doubt. Purdue will score a bunch, but they are at least a year of off being competitive.

After last season, no more Purdue for me. Simply watching that team puts me in a bad mood.

But, best of luck with the bet and to all who tail.


The cow hasn't left the barn and you are closing the door on Purdue.

Bad decision. All because of last year's 4.5 that was blown up after Hazell was fired at 3-3, which blew me away because he more than met expectations at that record. Gerard Parker was the single worst guy to put in there and that blew up the last six games.

And after all that give up (and Purdue and Rutgers were the kings of giving up last year, perhaps among the worst of all time vs. PSU for Purdue and Rutgers against Michigan) they STILL won 3 games.

Purdue's defense can ONLY get better after giving up almost 40 a game last year (again, in a year they won three games) so to focus on run defense is a bit misguided. The ENTIRE defense was abominable. But there are returning pieces that Brohn and even your despised Holt can work with.

EVERYTHING about this team was atrocious last year and in response Vegas knocked off TWO full games from their win total. 

They will win 3 games minimum. You can write it down. Blough and the RB's and Brohm leading the ship on O + returning pieces on D feasting on Ohio, Rutgers and likely the Hoosiers who they get at home this year gets it done. And then there are other winnable games on the schedule beyond that. Every conference game is not a loser. Purdue will be competitive this year.

You have to understand something about how important this coaching staff change is: Hazell and Shoop (former O-coordinator) played to LOSE. Literally. I watched all their games. Gawked at them. All of that is GONE and now the lowest of the low team total is available. There will never be a number like this again for Purdue. Forget Week 1. I don't care if they lost 70-0. It's everything beyond that. They will beat Ohio and Purdue vs. Rutgers? Well that is almost certainly going to be my POY. Can't wait. 

Don't pass it up because of a ambitious team total last year that got sunk because of a boneheaded firing (as the 4.5 had an outside shot to hit but not after Hazell was shown the door).
 
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Posted: #17
thanks u scal for pick and getting us excited for college football season I know I get excited every time I see u post a pk
 
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Posted: #18
word to the herd! get down get down!
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


The cow hasn't left the barn and you are closing the door on Purdue.

Bad decision. All because of last year's 4.5 that was blown up after Hazell was fired at 3-3, which blew me away because he more than met expectations at that record. Gerard Parker was the single worst guy to put in there and that blew up the last six games.

And after all that give up (and Purdue and Rutgers were the kings of giving up last year, perhaps among the worst of all time vs. PSU for Purdue and Rutgers against Michigan) they STILL won 3 games.

Purdue's defense can ONLY get better after giving up almost 40 a game last year (again, in a year they won three games) so to focus on run defense is a bit misguided. The ENTIRE defense was abominable. But there are returning pieces that Brohn and even your despised Holt can work with.

EVERYTHING about this team was atrocious last year and in response Vegas knocked off TWO full games from their win total. 

They will win 3 games minimum. You can write it down. Blough and the RB's and Brohm leading the ship on O + returning pieces on D feasting on Ohio, Rutgers and likely the Hoosiers who they get at home this year gets it done. And then there are other winnable games on the schedule beyond that. Every conference game is not a loser. Purdue will be competitive this year.

You have to understand something about how important this coaching staff change is: Hazell and Shoop (former O-coordinator) played to LOSE. Literally. I watched all their games. Gawked at them. All of that is GONE and now the lowest of the low team total is available. There will never be a number like this again for Purdue. Forget Week 1. I don't care if they lost 70-0. It's everything beyond that. They will beat Ohio and Purdue vs. Rutgers? Well that is almost certainly going to be my POY. Can't wait. 

Don't pass it up because of a ambitious team total last year that got sunk because of a boneheaded firing (as the 4.5 had an outside shot to hit but not after Hazell was shown the door).

I understand your case completely, and acknowledge that the line is low. Hazel sucked, and the interim HC was worse. The only thing Purdue did for me last year was beat Illinois outright...and that was a pretty nice payday.

I am having a real problem seeing some winnable games this season. @ Missouri, Michigan, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @ Iowa are all losers. They will be underdogs against Nebraska and Minnesota.

The Ohio game is a must win...and they should do just that. But to try and handicap a week 12 matchup with Indiana right now is ridiculous.

No matter what anybody says, if Purdue loses the Ohio game it is over. They will be 0-4 going into the bye....heck, even if they win they are 1-3. Any way you slice it, the second half (where a few of the winnable games are) may see Brohm rotating guys in and out for next year.

Listen.....I see the rationale, and lots of luck with the wager. But this season can crash and burn worse than the last one after a likely terrible start.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #20
  BOL SCAL 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

I understand your case completely, and acknowledge that the line is low. Hazel sucked, and the interim HC was worse. The only thing Purdue did for me last year was beat Illinois outright...and that was a pretty nice payday.

I am having a real problem seeing some winnable games this season. @ Missouri, Michigan, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @ Iowa are all losers. They will be underdogs against Nebraska and Minnesota.

The Ohio game is a must win...and they should do just that. But to try and handicap a week 12 matchup with Indiana right now is ridiculous.

No matter what anybody says, if Purdue loses the Ohio game it is over. They will be 0-4 going into the bye....heck, even if they win they are 1-3. Any way you slice it, the second half (where a few of the winnable games are) may see Brohm rotating guys in and out for next year.

Listen.....I see the rationale, and lots of luck with the wager. But this season can crash and burn worse than the last one after a likely terrible start.


First, Ohio is not a must win. And I have it as a win anyway as it is capped here in full.

Remember, Ohio lost to TEXAS STATE in their opener last year and were mere 3 pt favorites @ Kansas, a team with a 1.5 game win total on the year. They can easily lose to Purdue on the road. Purdue can beat this team at home. They will beat this team at home.

And who says at Mizzou is an AUTOMATIC loss? Purdue is only 1an 1.5 pt dog. An 11.5 pt dog can't win outright on the road?

And where is Illinois on your list? A team they beat on the road last year and now get at home.

Why can't they beat Nebraska at home as well? The 9 win Mike Riley team of last year won squeaker after squeaker and trailed Purdue at the half last year.

It's TWO AND A HALF WINS and guys are running for the hills with their pants at their ankles.

Yes, it's Purdue but ALL the stain of last year is IN THIS LINE. I have clearly stated why this line is what it is. You will never see it again. EVER. TWO AND A HALF. I'll say it again: TWO AND A HALF!!!

Now pull up your pants, be a man and take Purdue. My god. Some people. Incredible. It's all here for the taking!


Risk, always a pleasure.

Venez, good to see ya.


 
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Posted: #22
Just a bewildering question but how and why are you "so up" and knowledgeable on a Big 10 bottomfeeder? Just curiuous..
 
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Posted: #23
Might be tough ....

Going to need to Beat OHIO, ILLINOIS and at Rutgers 

NOT sure I would lay the -145 Juice on the Over....Could be better off betting them Straight up vs Ohio , at Rutgers ....



BEST OF LUCK BROTHER 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


First, Ohio is not a must win. And I have it as a win anyway as it is capped here in full.

Show me 3 other wins to get you over without a W vs Ohio.

Remember, Ohio lost to TEXAS STATE in their opener last year and were mere 3 pt favorites @ Kansas, a team with a 1.5 game win total on the year. They can easily lose to Purdue on the road. Purdue can beat this team at home. They will beat this team at home. They should...but if they don't your bet is toast. The power ratings have this at Purdue -1. It ain't a layup.

And who says at Mizzou is an AUTOMATIC loss? Purdue is only 1an 1.5 pt dog. An 11.5 pt dog can't win outright on the road? Maybe.

And where is Illinois on your list? A team they beat on the road last year and now get at home. Check out post #15, and my comments about getting Purdue moneyline at Illinois last year.

Why can't they beat Nebraska at home as well? The 9 win Mike Riley team of last year won squeaker after squeaker and trailed Purdue at the half last year. They can. But they likely be 4 point dogs going in.

It's TWO AND A HALF WINS and guys are running for the hills with their pants at their ankles.

Yes, it's Purdue but ALL the stain of last year is IN THIS LINE. I have clearly stated why this line is what it is. You will never see it again. EVER. TWO AND A HALF. I'll say it again: TWO AND A HALF!!! This is not a good sign. Double exclamation points and the season hasn't even started. You still on tilt from CBB?

Now pull up your pants, be a man and take Purdue. My god. Some people. Incredible. It's all here for the taking!


Risk, always a pleasure.

Venez, good to see ya.


My responses are in red, above.


I agree with double...why lay the juice when you are likely to get +money against the likes of Nebraska, Minnesota and better juice against Ohio.

Why tie the capital up? Why not just blow your wad in the Ohio game?

Again, best of luck. There is no way that this bet covers if Purdue dumps to Ohio. No way.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Interesting.

Plays are basically connected. If they can't beat Ohio at home, they aren't winning three games. 

Good luck! 
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