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SEC Week 4

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Posted: #51
Georgia @ Arizona St.:  Georgia -6.5

I know I am in the minority on this site picking UGA, but I have felt pretty strong about this game before this season started.  UGA had 42 sacks last year (SEC no.1) and have already started the season with 6 so far.  They really aren't doing well pressuring the QB so far this year and Coach Richt has said a couple of times they need to but a big emphasis on the pass rush.  They started out this way last year having trouble sacking the QB then they ended up 1st in the SEC with sacks.  Arizona St coming off a huge lookahead loss and UGA coming off a road win vs a rival team. 

I dont think Arizona St. is going to see a better running back all year than Knowshon Moreno.  Joe Mcknight is prob. the next best thing but IMO hes not as good as Moreno (atleast yet). Moreno is averaging 6.7 yards/carry this year.  Arizona St.'s offensive line is going to be manhandled by UGA's front 7.  Arizona st's starting Left tackle was playing defense last year.   They lost there best player , Mike Pollack, on the line to the NFL.

The games are won and lost in the trenches.  I dont care how good Rudy Carpenter is, he cant pass the ball if he is laying on his back. 

Arizona St. does return 3 of the front 4 who gave up only 116 on the ground last year.  Im not sure they faced a rushing attack like Moreno/King/Samuel last year except for USC (who they lost to @ Home).  The think Arizona St's defense lack of athleticism is going to hurt them big time in this game and will result in a double digit uga win.


UGA 35
Arizona St- 17
 
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Posted: #52
I was at the Miss St/Auburn game.  State's D is very good against the run and very fast. They are gonna make GT pass to beat them.  That rushing stat is misleading cuz Auburn broke about a 40 yd run at the end of the game to ice it. So State really held them to about 120 yds.  State will get in the backfield and cause problems for a offense that is still a work in progress.  SEC does pretty well against the ACC.  GT's D is no where near as good as Auburns
 
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Posted: #53
dyounger, I agree with you on most of your picks.  The one I don't like is Vandy.  They can't throw the ball and this is a much better Ole Miss team than 2007  (Ed Orgeron was by far the worst coach in college football).  Oxford will be rocking Saturday night as they have been pointing to this game for 2 weeks (Samford last week didn't count).
 
Ole Miss 31-20 
 
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Posted: #54
Corley- States D is good i will agree with that. I would also say there defense is not as good as Virgina Tech's defense who had trouble containing the triple option.  Your right GT's Defense is not as good as Auburns.  But it wont take some amazing defense to shut down Miss st offense.  Im undecided on who i am betting on in this game or if i will bet it at all.  But I dont think Miss st will shut down GT's rushing offense as effectively as VT did.

Superchicken- Teams dont have to throw the ball to win the game. If you are able to run the ball like Vandy there is not much need for a passing game.  Is there any other reason besides Vandy cant pass the ball that you think they dont cover?  Are you concerned with Jevan Snead passing against one of the best secondarys in the SEC?  GL to you
 
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Posted: #55
dyounger, I think we will just "agree to disagree" about this game.  You must think Vandy is a lot better than I do (yes, I saw the SC game, but Vandy has 1 good game like that every year).  I think Ole Miss will effectively run the ball and sprinkle in a few passes.  And I just don't think Vandy can score enough points to win the game with such a one dimensional offense.  Just my opinion.
 
GL
 
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by will.cover:

 

38-6 = The Hat's Overall Record at LSU


19-5 = The Hat's SEC regular season record


23-1 = The hat's record against unranked teams


15-5 = The Hat's record against Top 25 teams


13-4 = The Hat's record against Top 15 teams


7-3 = The Hat's record against Top 10 teams


6-1 = The Hat's record at home against Top 20 teams


3-0 = The Hat's Bowl Record


23-2 = The Hat's Home record


11-1 = The Hat's record in November


13-2 = The Hat's record against the SEC West


11-3 = The Hat's road record


3-0 = The Hat's record in the Superdome


4-1 = The Hat's record after November


2-0 = The Hat's record in BCS Bowls


2 SEC West Titles


1 SEC Championship


1 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP


Won the SEC West outright for the first time in LSU history


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight 10 win seasons


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight 11 win seasons


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight Top 5 finishes


Only LSU coach to beat Alabama, Auburn, and Florida in the same season, (he has done it twice)


Only LSU coach to beat Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida in the same season


Has come from behind victories over:


#15 Arizona State
#4 Alabama
#15 Auburn
#11 Florida
#8 Tennessee
#9 Florida
#17 Auburn
#17 Alabama
#14 Tennessee
#1 Ohio State



Ranked in the Top 15 in 51 of 51 polls


Ranked in the Top 10 in 45 of 51 polls


Ranked in the Top 5 in 29 of 51 polls


Ranked #1 in 5 of 51 polls


Has beaten 6 National Championship coaches:

1. Larry Coker
2. Phillip Fulmer, (twice)
3. Steve Spurrier
4. Urban Meyer, (twice)
5. Nick Saban
6. Jim Tressel

Will-cover and dy, I respect both of you as cappers. Your records speak for themselves.

Be that as it may, I've pretty much watch every LSU gamesince Miles has begun at LSU, and he's a terrible gameday coach.  His teams are extremely undisaplined and routinely league the league in penalties, and routinely lead the nation in idiotic penalties.  What you're missing is that Miles took over a national championship team with national championship talent.  When most coaches are hired, they have to rebuild a program that was left in shambles by the previous coach.  The vast talent advantage he's enjoyed over his peers has masked his horrible undisiplined coaching.  I could have stepped into Saban's shoes and done AT LEAST as good as Miles.  It is absolutely inexcusable that he doesn't have 2 national titles at this point.  LSU had a huge talent advantage over Florida when the Gators won it.  And were it not for the fact that 15 other teams self-destucted down the stretch last year, he would not have played for the title last year.  In short, Miles did everything possible to screw it up . . . AGAIN!!!

The only good thing I can say about Miles is that he has done well recruiting (I think that will end pretty soon though), and that he's hired good assistants.  He is living in the house that Saban built, and that house will come crashing down soon, and LSU will return to mediocrity (or worse) under Miles.

I have my money on LSU in this game knowing in adavnce he will be out-coached by TT.  My bet is more of a fade on Auburn at this point due to the internal problems on that team, rather than a vote of confidence on Miles & LSU.  As I have been saying since before the season started, Auburn is NOT a Top 10 team.  I will be on my knees every night this week asking God to give Miles wisdom, because I know he's a one-legged man entering a butt kicking contest.

Bottom line, Les Miles is horrible!!!  Even honest LSU fans will tell you this.

BOL guys!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #57
SuperChicken- Vandy is averaging 32 points/game. They put 24 up against the SC defense that is definitely better than Ole Miss. Agree to disagree
 
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Posted: #58
I will add Vandy is only giving up 17 points/game. Might ask yourself how Ole miss is going to score
 
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Posted: #59
Jimmy- Say what you want, but alot of coaches have come into a team with National Championship caliber talent and blown it.  He didnt and he won.  Just have to agree to disagree.  Alot of people say Phil Fulmer is a bad coach but he has only had 1 losing season since he has been there, has a national championship, 2 sec championships, been to 5 sec champs.  But somehow he is still a bad coach.


 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:

If Auburn is favored i will be on LSU very LARGE.  Auburn is not even in my top 25 teams.  They have a top 25-40 type defense, but there offense is at the very very bottom of the league. 

Alabama will be a bet for me if they are favored by less than 2 tds. 

I will be interested in seeing the GT line, i think GT will handle them easily. 

Florida vs Tennesee game is going to be a good spot to bet Tennesee i think.


It looks like we all have some very different lines.  We will see what happens this week.  Id say the lines are going to get a hole lot sharper this week.


Crompton is getting boo'ed at home, if they don't get out to a fast start, the boo birds will come out and it will only get worse for Tennessee. 
 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:

 
Les miles is a good coach, you dont win a national championship by mistake.

Sure you can, and Les Miles is the perfect example.

 Les Miles

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #62
dfk11- I watched most of that UAB game last week.  I am a little concerned about the offense.  If they would just hand the ball off to Foster the hole game they would be alot better off.  I think they are learning what he can and cant do now and will limit the throws he has to make.  When they throw it, they should go to Lucas Taylor on every play because the guy has got some great hands and amazing speed.

I think the coaches were being a little vanilla in the game plan vs UAB and i think Crompton is getting better every game. 

Arian foster is a beast and if they just hand it off to him every play this Saturday they will be looking really good.  Hard to lay more than a TD on florida @ Neyland Stadium
 
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Posted: #63

Freak, 

I see your still spouting non-sense! Idiot forever arent you!! Nicky boys recruits are gone now and the ones that won a"REAL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP"  last year were only freshmen when Nicky left LSU(How much did Nick teach them???)  You dingle berry!!!  Les was an offensive lineman at Michigan and coached under Bo  so I think he knows football!! Your napolean want to be smurf has less football sense than you think!!  Yep Les cant recruit just 3rd in the  nation right now!! Your a blooming fool!! Les relates to these kids now alot better than your runt does!! These kids nowadays want someone to join in with them not act as if they are better than them like your runt does!! I think your runt is the one thats had his day in the recruiting battles!! Only because it was an up year in BAMMER is the only reason he did as well as he did!! Tuberville has a better record against Bammers runt of a coach than he does Les miles!!!  GET A CLUE IDIOT!!

 
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Posted: #64

Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:

Updated card:
Tenn +7.5
Wake Forest +4
Vandy +5.5
LSU -2.5
UGA -6.5
Alabama -9.5

Still undecided on GT/Miss St game, may just play a total on that game.

Love the Wake pick.  I'm on it like a hobo on a ham sandwich!!!  Already have them locked in!!!  Florida State still has 6 defensive starters sitting out due to an academic cheating scandal, but they do get WR Preston Parker back this week.  Parker only was smoking weed while packing heat.  Only a minor infraction by Seminoles standards.

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:

dfk11- I watched most of that UAB game last week.  I am a little concerned about the offense.  If they would just hand the ball off to Foster the hole game they would be alot better off.  I think they are learning what he can and cant do now and will limit the throws he has to make.  When they throw it, they should go to Lucas Taylor on every play because the guy has got some great hands and amazing speed.

I think the coaches were being a little vanilla in the game plan vs UAB and i think Crompton is getting better every game. 

Arian foster is a beast and if they just hand it off to him every play this Saturday they will be looking really good.  Hard to lay more than a TD on florida @ Neyland Stadium


The running game is the best thing about Tennessee, but Florida's run defense has gotten a lot better.  It's always a close game between the two but I just don't see the Tennessee offense being able to control the clock enough to keep Florida's offense off the field like Miami did.  Tennessee's secondary is one of the best in the SEC but if Florida can get their ground game going, they should be using Moody a lot more, they will control the game and win it pretty easily.
 
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Posted: #66
dyounger -
 
First off, I really enjoy reading your thread.  Being an avid SEC fan, with my alma mater being UT, it is nice to see very lenghty and accurate stats going into the weekend.  I will continue to follow and read closely.
 
Second, every Sunday night my roommates (one Auburn grad, two UT, and one Memphis football player) all print out the games for next week and try and make an accurate guess at what the line SHOULD be.  On Saturday's, only one of us does shit (Memphis player) so we have a pretty good idea of how it should come out, having watched every game.  I see that you do the same thing and I think this gives you a great head start on the rest of the gambling world.
 
Where we differ is what happens when the line comes out and its way off.  Use UGA last week as an example.  You posted your largest play on UGA, right?  Or at least earlier in the week you had it that way. 
 
Depending on where and when you got the line, depended on your outcome but not many UGA backers won.  I happen to bet through a local and he had it at 7.5 so I was happy not having to buy the hook.  Don't take this the wrong way but no matter how much you know, the odds makers know more. 
 
When they set a huge TV game line at a spot where they KNOW action is going to be heavy on one side, they are going to win more than they lose.  That game was bet from day one all the way up to Saturday and it didn't move an inch (most places).  At kickoff, the odds were 80% on UGA and 81% on the UGA ML.  This usually doesn't come out well for them. 
 
This weekend, I am not really sure about the UGA line, mainly because in Memphis I don't get much info, other than SportsCenter, on Arizona or other West Coast/South West teams.  Therefore, my line "guessing" was probably inaccurate but I had it at 7. 
 
Florida @ UT - Florida should be favored in this game by 10.  It has been said for YEARS that Fat Phil doesn't open up his playbook until Florida but with the new schedule (opening with UCLA or Cal) he has had to battle and pull out plays from his book.  In other words, you've seen the "real" UT and it isn't pretty.  This line is going to draw heavy action on Florida.  I like UT +7.5.  Its a medium play for me.
 
LSU @ Auburn - After watching Auburn the first three weeks, I've noticed that their offense is awful.  There is not enough being said about the defense of Mississippi St. though.  They are ball hawks in the backfield and head hunters in the interior.  Auburn couldn't put up any points but this is something many teams will have trouble with going forward.  Auburn has been battle tested.  LSU, on the other hand, has barely played a D1 program.  Hatch (10/17 128yds and a pick vs. North Texas) is going into a hostile environment for the first time and if he puts up numbers like last week, he won't like the outcome.  Their running game is good, at best, but won't make a difference if Hatch is ineffective. 
 
With all this being said, LSU, in the public's eyes, is still the champs, and that goes into effect when setting lines.  This line should of been somewhere around the 7.5 mark.  It opened at 1.5.  This is last week's UGA vs. USC game.  Auburn covers or Vegas gets smacked where it hurts, the pocket. 
 
Vandy @ Ole Miss  - I had this at a pk and with Ole Miss being favored by 5, I see action being heavy on Vandy so I'll be taking Ole Miss for a medium play.
 
 
We think alike until it comes time to place a bet.  You see value at taking UGA at -7 or 7.5, where as I see that as being way to good to be true.  You see value at taking LSU -1.5 or whatever and I think that is WAY to good to be true after last week's TV night game. 
 
Either way, good luck and I will continue to follow your thread...
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #67
For the record -
 
I am biased towards UT when it comes to Florida but if I had to choose b/t winning a bet and UT winning, I'd take the bet.  My team is UT but I live in Memphis and root harder for them than I do any other team.  I regularly bet against UT.  Largest bet last year was Bama over UT.  haha.....Seriously!!
 
Oh yeah, I fucking hate Auburn.  So, I'm not biased because I live with two AU grads.  It makes me hate them MORE! 
 
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Posted: #68
Miles will leave a loser at LSU before it is all said and done. He won a nat'l title with Saban's braun and with 3(THREE) losses. Pure fluke LSU was in the title game to begin with . They won despite Miles's dumbass calls.And I am a T A&M fan!! No allegiance to LSU or SEC.
 
Side note SEC best conference hands down the past 10-15 years. Semi-pro league compared to all otheres!!
 
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Posted: #69
coleg44-  Good stuff my friend.  What I usually do when lines come out is take the lines i see value in.  Dont give much thought into public plays or anything else until later in the week.  I follow lines throughout the week and will reverse plays based on line movement or other feels. I did this in the UGA game, i switched sides to South Carolina +7.5 and also had a bet on UGA -6.  I hit the middle but realized my SC bet didnt go through at my book.  Anyways i agree with what your saying. 

When they set a huge TV game line at a spot where they KNOW action is going to be heavy on one side, they are going to win more than they lose.  That game was bet from day one all the way up to Saturday and it didn't move an inch (most places).  At kickoff, the odds were 80% on UGA and 81% on the UGA ML.  This usually doesn't come out well for them.

Read above what i said about reversing bets.  I think as far as the overhyped highly televised games i have picked them very well so far this year.  Hopefully I can continue to do it but ill have to go back and see what my record is for these games. 

I agree Miss st has a good defense.  But ill say that Auburns offense made their defense look alot better than what it really is. GL to you if you are on Auburn, but I feel good about LSU in this spot

I hope your not taking Ole Miss based solely on the line being set higher than what you capped it at. The line wasn't far off from what I capped it at.  Fading public plays and playing games based solely on lines is not always a success.  While it certainly should be part of capping games it shouldn't be the sole reason of picking a game.  For example USC was a huge public play last week and we know how that turned out.  While the public is wrong more than right, they are going to win from time to time, otherwise they would quit betting
GL to you this weekend


 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by chowin:

Miles will leave a loser at LSU before it is all said and done. He won a nat'l title with Saban's braun and with 3(THREE) losses. Pure fluke LSU was in the title game to begin with . They won despite Miles's dumbass calls.And I am a T A&M fan!! No allegiance to LSU or SEC.
 
Side note SEC best conference hands down the past 10-15 years. Semi-pro league compared to all otheres!!


I would say Ohio St. got into the National Championship on a pure fluke.  LSU clearly proved they deserved to be in it.
 
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Posted: #71
I beg to differ.Lsu BACKED in after the W Va/Pitt debacle. Should never have been there in the first place. You will never see a 3 loss national champion again nor a Less Miles one either.. Now that is/was a fluke.
 
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Posted: #72
LSU was a 2 loss team not a 3 loss team.
 
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Posted: #73
Adding:
UGA -5 (got it from VIP and bought hook)
Vandy +7
Alabama -8.5
Miss St. +6
 
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Posted: #74
That is Miss st +8
 
 
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Posted: #75
if Miss St can get double digits that should look pretty good, probably they can as GT defense a notch or two below Auburn defense
 
interested to see that LSU/Auburn total
 
GL this week
 
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