SEC Week 4

Georgia @ Arizona St.:  Georgia -6.5

I know I am in the minority on this site picking UGA, but I have felt pretty strong about this game before this season started.  UGA had 42 sacks last year (SEC no.1) and have already started the season with 6 so far.  They really aren't doing well pressuring the QB so far this year and Coach Richt has said a couple of times they need to but a big emphasis on the pass rush.  They started out this way last year having trouble sacking the QB then they ended up 1st in the SEC with sacks.  Arizona St coming off a huge lookahead loss and UGA coming off a road win vs a rival team. 

I dont think Arizona St. is going to see a better running back all year than Knowshon Moreno.  Joe Mcknight is prob. the next best thing but IMO hes not as good as Moreno (atleast yet). Moreno is averaging 6.7 yards/carry this year.  Arizona St.'s offensive line is going to be manhandled by UGA's front 7.  Arizona st's starting Left tackle was playing defense last year.   They lost there best player , Mike Pollack, on the line to the NFL.

The games are won and lost in the trenches.  I dont care how good Rudy Carpenter is, he cant pass the ball if he is laying on his back. 

Arizona St. does return 3 of the front 4 who gave up only 116 on the ground last year.  Im not sure they faced a rushing attack like Moreno/King/Samuel last year except for USC (who they lost to @ Home).  The think Arizona St's defense lack of athleticism is going to hurt them big time in this game and will result in a double digit uga win.


UGA 35
Arizona St- 17

Corley- States D is good i will agree with that. I would also say there defense is not as good as Virgina Tech's defense who had trouble containing the triple option.  Your right GT's Defense is not as good as Auburns.  But it wont take some amazing defense to shut down Miss st offense.  Im undecided on who i am betting on in this game or if i will bet it at all.  But I dont think Miss st will shut down GT's rushing offense as effectively as VT did.

Superchicken- Teams dont have to throw the ball to win the game. If you are able to run the ball like Vandy there is not much need for a passing game.  Is there any other reason besides Vandy cant pass the ball that you think they dont cover?  Are you concerned with Jevan Snead passing against one of the best secondarys in the SEC?  GL to you

Will-cover and dy, I respect both of you as cappers. Your records speak for themselves.

Be that as it may, I've pretty much watch every LSU gamesince Miles has begun at LSU, and he's a terrible gameday coach.  His teams are extremely undisaplined and routinely league the league in penalties, and routinely lead the nation in idiotic penalties.  What you're missing is that Miles took over a national championship team with national championship talent.  When most coaches are hired, they have to rebuild a program that was left in shambles by the previous coach.  The vast talent advantage he's enjoyed over his peers has masked his horrible undisiplined coaching.  I could have stepped into Saban's shoes and done AT LEAST as good as Miles.  It is absolutely inexcusable that he doesn't have 2 national titles at this point.  LSU had a huge talent advantage over Florida when the Gators won it.  And were it not for the fact that 15 other teams self-destucted down the stretch last year, he would not have played for the title last year.  In short, Miles did everything possible to screw it up . . . AGAIN!!!

The only good thing I can say about Miles is that he has done well recruiting (I think that will end pretty soon though), and that he's hired good assistants.  He is living in the house that Saban built, and that house will come crashing down soon, and LSU will return to mediocrity (or worse) under Miles.

I have my money on LSU in this game knowing in adavnce he will be out-coached by TT.  My bet is more of a fade on Auburn at this point due to the internal problems on that team, rather than a vote of confidence on Miles & LSU.  As I have been saying since before the season started, Auburn is NOT a Top 10 team.  I will be on my knees every night this week asking God to give Miles wisdom, because I know he's a one-legged man entering a butt kicking contest.

Bottom line, Les Miles is horrible!!!  Even honest LSU fans will tell you this.

BOL guys!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

SuperChicken- Vandy is averaging 32 points/game. They put 24 up against the SC defense that is definitely better than Ole Miss. Agree to disagree

I will add Vandy is only giving up 17 points/game. Might ask yourself how Ole miss is going to score

Jimmy- Say what you want, but alot of coaches have come into a team with National Championship caliber talent and blown it.  He didnt and he won.  Just have to agree to disagree.  Alot of people say Phil Fulmer is a bad coach but he has only had 1 losing season since he has been there, has a national championship, 2 sec championships, been to 5 sec champs.  But somehow he is still a bad coach.

Crompton is getting boo'ed at home, if they don't get out to a fast start, the boo birds will come out and it will only get worse for Tennessee. 

Sure you can, and Les Miles is the perfect example.

 Les Miles

FREAK OUT!!!

dfk11- I watched most of that UAB game last week.  I am a little concerned about the offense.  If they would just hand the ball off to Foster the hole game they would be alot better off.  I think they are learning what he can and cant do now and will limit the throws he has to make.  When they throw it, they should go to Lucas Taylor on every play because the guy has got some great hands and amazing speed.

I think the coaches were being a little vanilla in the game plan vs UAB and i think Crompton is getting better every game. 

Arian foster is a beast and if they just hand it off to him every play this Saturday they will be looking really good.  Hard to lay more than a TD on florida @ Neyland Stadium

Freak, 

I see your still spouting non-sense! Idiot forever arent you!! Nicky boys recruits are gone now and the ones that won a"REAL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP"  last year were only freshmen when Nicky left LSU(How much did Nick teach them???)  You dingle berry!!!  Les was an offensive lineman at Michigan and coached under Bo  so I think he knows football!! Your napolean want to be smurf has less football sense than you think!!  Yep Les cant recruit just 3rd in the  nation right now!! Your a blooming fool!! Les relates to these kids now alot better than your runt does!! These kids nowadays want someone to join in with them not act as if they are better than them like your runt does!! I think your runt is the one thats had his day in the recruiting battles!! Only because it was an up year in BAMMER is the only reason he did as well as he did!! Tuberville has a better record against Bammers runt of a coach than he does Les miles!!!  GET A CLUE IDIOT!!

Love the Wake pick.  I'm on it like a hobo on a ham sandwich!!!  Already have them locked in!!!  Florida State still has 6 defensive starters sitting out due to an academic cheating scandal, but they do get WR Preston Parker back this week.  Parker only was smoking weed while packing heat.  Only a minor infraction by Seminoles standards.

FREAK OUT!!!

The running game is the best thing about Tennessee, but Florida's run defense has gotten a lot better.  It's always a close game between the two but I just don't see the Tennessee offense being able to control the clock enough to keep Florida's offense off the field like Miami did.  Tennessee's secondary is one of the best in the SEC but if Florida can get their ground game going, they should be using Moody a lot more, they will control the game and win it pretty easily.

coleg44-  Good stuff my friend.  What I usually do when lines come out is take the lines i see value in.  Dont give much thought into public plays or anything else until later in the week.  I follow lines throughout the week and will reverse plays based on line movement or other feels. I did this in the UGA game, i switched sides to South Carolina +7.5 and also had a bet on UGA -6.  I hit the middle but realized my SC bet didnt go through at my book.  Anyways i agree with what your saying. 

When they set a huge TV game line at a spot where they KNOW action is going to be heavy on one side, they are going to win more than they lose.  That game was bet from day one all the way up to Saturday and it didn't move an inch (most places).  At kickoff, the odds were 80% on UGA and 81% on the UGA ML.  This usually doesn't come out well for them.

Read above what i said about reversing bets.  I think as far as the overhyped highly televised games i have picked them very well so far this year.  Hopefully I can continue to do it but ill have to go back and see what my record is for these games. 

I agree Miss st has a good defense.  But ill say that Auburns offense made their defense look alot better than what it really is. GL to you if you are on Auburn, but I feel good about LSU in this spot

I hope your not taking Ole Miss based solely on the line being set higher than what you capped it at. The line wasn't far off from what I capped it at.  Fading public plays and playing games based solely on lines is not always a success.  While it certainly should be part of capping games it shouldn't be the sole reason of picking a game.  For example USC was a huge public play last week and we know how that turned out.  While the public is wrong more than right, they are going to win from time to time, otherwise they would quit betting
GL to you this weekend

I would say Ohio St. got into the National Championship on a pure fluke.  LSU clearly proved they deserved to be in it.

LSU was a 2 loss team not a 3 loss team.

Adding:
UGA -5 (got it from VIP and bought hook)
Vandy +7
Alabama -8.5
Miss St. +6

That is Miss st +8