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Spooky Express College Football Bowl season Bowling for Dollars selection and analysis thread

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Posted: #26
Thanks guys.  Appreciate the positive feedback.  

Running our free contests as well if anyone is interested. Everyone is welcome.  Check it out at the Express website.  GL 
 
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Posted: #27
MILITARY BOWL

CINCINNATI vs VIRGINIA TECH
Saturday, Dec. 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
ESPN


The Cincinnati Bearcats and Virginia Tech Hokies took very different routes to make it to a bowl game in 2014. The Bearcats, who finished the year up at 9-3, with a 7-1 conference record, rallied off an impressive finish to the year, and their bowl eligibility was locked in as of the middle of November. For the Hokies, they finished the year up 6-6 with a 3-5 ACC record, and locked up their bowl eligibility in the final game of the season, a 24-20 win over the Virginia Cavaliers. This game will get underway on Saturday, December 27th at 1:00pm EST, and will be aired on ESPN.

Bearcats Offense Ready for Bowl Action

The Bearcats started the year out 2-0, but then dropped three straight against current bowl teams, and the concern was on. Fortunately for the Bearcats, Gunner Kiel and company turned it around quickly, reeling off seven straight wins, including an impressive win over the East Carolina Pirates. Speaking of Kiel, he’s been a huge part of the team’s success, throwing for 3,010 yards and 30 touchdowns, and this team ranks 13th in the nation with 300.2 passing yards per game. They also have very little problem scoring, averaging 35.4 points per game, which ranks 26th in the country.

Crazy Year for Virginia Tech

For the Hokies, it’s been a wild ride. They lost to the same ECU team that Cincinnati beat, 28-21, while showing major signs of turning the corner at times. They actually defeated current CFB Playoff team Ohio State, showing exactly the upside that this team has. The Hokies also knocked off North Carolina and Duke, but lost to Wake Forest along the way. Their defense will be the talking point, as they allowed just 20.4 points per game this season, good for 17th best in the nation. Offensively, it’s going to be a team living or dying by quarterback Michael Brewer. When he’s good, he’s very good, but when he struggles, it’s bad. He’s thrown for 2,598 yards and 17 touchdowns, but also has 14 interceptions on the year.

PICK

It’s interesting, because sometimes the records don’t tell the full story. The Hokies had the one bad loss to Wake Forest, but aside from that, they lost to Georgia Tech, ECU, Pittsburgh, Miami and Boston College. All of which are not bad losses. They’ve also showed how good they can be with that 35-21 win over Ohio State. Do we see good or bad Hokie football? I think we see the good, and they get the job done, making them an interesting money line underdog bet here. I see them winning this game by a field goal. Lets take the points and check back closer to the game.


VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES


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Posted: #28
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL

ARIZONA STATE vs DUKE
Saturday, Dec. 27, 2:00 p.m. ET
CBS

As one of the early games for the action on December 27th, this game should pick up quite a bit of attention. While the Duke Blue Devils fell off a bit at the end of the year, they still ended with an impressive 9-3 record, going 5-3 in the ACC. The Arizona State Sun Devils on the other side went 9-3 on the year, finishing with a 6-3 Pac-12 record. Both teams had strong years, and I can’t imagine much of a more interesting match-up in this year’s Sun Bowl. Let’s get into the matchup and give a prediction and pick between these two talented teams.


Questions at QB for Arizona State


The Sun Devils have a whole lot of talent, but the question is, who is their quarterback? Both Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici have received their moment in the sun, but neither has apparently taken over the job completely, as both players are getting in on the action. Bercovici has thrown for 1,445 yards, 12 touchdowns and four picks, while Kelly has had a strong year with 1,874 yards, 20 touchdowns and five picks. Well, the good news is that whoever is throwing the ball, gets to throw it to wide out Jaelen Strong, who is an absolutely incredibly talented receiver. Strong hauled in 75 receptions for 1,062 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, helping to fuel an offense which ranks 18th in the nation with 37 points per game.


Crowder Leads a Talented Duke Group


For Duke, they were the favorites to take on Florida State in the ACC Championship game, but after slip-ups against Virginia Tech and North Carolina, they found themselves on the outside looking in. This team still has a ton of talent, and they do many things well, but their defense is incredibly good. They allow just 20.6 points per game, and gave up more than 25 points just twice all season. The man to watch on this offense is Jamison Crowder, who could actually break both school and ACC records with this game. He’s just incredibly talented, and caught 78 passes for 942 yards and six touchdowns on the year.


PICK


There’s something strange about this game. Arizona State is getting a whole lot of love, but I think Duke isn’t getting the respect they deserve. Dave Cutcliffe is one of the best coaches in the country, and he’s going to have his team ready for this matchup. I think the Sun Devils’ offense gets slowed down quite a bit, and Duke either keeps it very close, or possibly pulls off the upset. I like this bet quite a bit, lets roll with the underdog here, take the points in a battle to the end.


DUKE BLUE DEVILS


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Posted: #29
DUCK COMMANDER INDEPENDENCE BOWL

MIAMI vs SOUTH CAROLINA
Saturday, Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET
ABC


If you want a pre-New Years bowl that has two big-time programs squaring off, then look no further than the Miami Hurricanes against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, December 27th at 3:30pm EST. The game will be aired on ABC, and it features two teams who, in all honesty, really underperformed in their 2014 campaigns. Both schools had high hopes entering the year, but both ended with 6-6 records and went 3-5 in conference play as well. Let’s look at this matchup and give a prediction and pick on what should still be a great game to watch.


Miami Struggling Down the Stretch


The Hurricanes come in as a team who badly, badly needs to right the ship. After picking up a few wins against bowl eligible teams in Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina, they lost their final three games of the season to end the year on a very sour note. The good news for the Hurricanes is that they have a very talented freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya, who should be fun to watch for years to come. He threw for 2,962 yards and 25 touchdowns in his firs tear, while getting picked off 11 times. The man to watch in this game though has to be Duke Johnson. Johnson is a complete stud, and he’s averaged 7 YPC on the year, while rushing for 1,520 yards and 10 touchdowns.


South Carolina Looking Forward to Bowl Game


After a midseason stretch in which the Gamecocks lost four of five games, and their only win came against Furman, they beat two bowl teams in Florida and South Alabama to lock up bowl eligibility. Their final game? Well, that was the toughest for fans to swallow, as they lost to their biggest rival, the Clemson Tigers, 35-17. While the Gamecocks have struggled defensively this year, allowing 31.2 points per game, they’ve scored 33.3 per game, which is 37th best in the country. Their passing game has been the focus, as they’ve thrown for 281.4 yards per game on average, and are led by Dylan Thompson who tossed for 3,280 yards and 24 touchdowns, as well as the incredibly talented wide out, Pharoh Cooper, racked up 966 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.

PICK


The Hurricanes may be listed as small favorites in this one, but I love this game. I think Miami rolls right through and makes a statement against the Gamecocks. Look for Johnson to run all over South Carolina, and have a huge game in what could potentially end up being his final college game. Miami wins this game by double digits.
MIAMI HURRICANES


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Posted: #30
good  job my friend !!!!!
 
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Posted: #31
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL

BOSTON COLLEGE vs PENN STATE
Saturday, Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. ET
ESPN


Welcome back to bowl eligibility, Penn State. The Nittany Lions have to be fired up that they get to head back to a bowl this season, and it’s a very interesting one, as they take on a talented Boston College Eagles’ team, who was just barely beaten on a last second field goal by FSU, and also defeated the USC Trojans this year. While the Nittany Lions ended up at 6-6 overall and just 2-6 in Big Ten play, they were bowl eligible with two games left in the season. For Boston College, they finished 7-5 and went 4-4 in an interesting ACC. This game will be played on Saturday, December 27th at 4:30pm EST on ESPN. Let’s check out the matchup and give a pick!

Defense Key for Boston College

The Eagles are led by the talented dual-threat quarterback Tyler Murphy, who transferred in from Florida. He’s had one incredibly impressive year, as he topped 1,000 yards rushing (1,079), with 10 touchdowns, and also tossed 11 touchdowns as well. Murphy is incredibly talented, and this is a team that relies heavily on their run game. They rank 15th in the nation with 251.8 yards per game, but they’ve also had an incredible defense on the year. They’ve given up an average of 20.5 points, which is the 18th best in the country.

Penn State Dangerous In Bowl Game

For Penn State, they started out 4-0 and were feeling good, but then dropped four straight games, including a double-overtime loss to Ohio State and a one point loss to Maryland. They won back-to-back after that to earn bowl eligibility, but after losing two straight to end they year, they are looking to get that sour taste out of their mouth. There are some serious question about this offense, but they average 221.9 passing yards per game. The truly impressive aspect of this Nittany Lion’s team is their defense. They allow 17.7 points per game, which is the eighth best in the country, making them a dangerous opponent for anyone.

PICK


It’s a tough call, but while I do believe Boston College wins the game here, I think it’s safer just to take them on the money line and not lay any points. The combination of their incredible run game, mixed with a defense who should completely shut down the Penn State offense makes for an interesting bet, and I’m rolling with the Eagles in a very close game.
BOSTON COLLEGE



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Posted: #32
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL

NEBRASKA vs USC
Saturday, Dec. 27, 8:00 p.m. ET
ESPN



The Nebraska Cornhuskers are simply surrounded by drama currently, as head coach Bo Pelini has been fired, and he’s also been firing shots at the Cornhuskers’ AD as well. That’s all just side noise at this point though, as the Cornhuskers have to prepare for an interesting bowl game against the USC Trojans on Saturday, December 27th. This one is the National University Holiday Bowl, and is set to kick off at 8:00pm EST, while airing on ESPN. both teams are looking to end the year on a high note after solid (but below average) seasons, so let’s look at who gets the job done in this one.

Nebraska Representing Big 10

The Cornhuskers finished the year up at 9-3 overall with a 5-3 Big Ten record, but that wasn’t enough to keep Pelini his job. This team put up some major points, averaging 37.4 per game, while running the ball insanely well all season. They are 17th in rushing yards per game at 248.3, and will have Ameer Abdullah looking to make a statement in his final game. Nebraska isn’t great through the air, which could turn out to be their achilles heal in this game. Interestingly, Nebraska started the year out 8-1, but then dropped two of their final three, while nearly dropping a third to Iowa in the final game.

Kessler Leads the Way for USC

For the Trojans, they are 8-4 on the year, with a 6-3 Pac-12 record this season. There are some things to absolutely love about this team, which starts with their ability to throw the ball with quarterback Cody Kessler and wide out Nelson Agholor. The Trojans have averaged 294.6 yards per game through the air (15th best in the nation) and have scored 35.1 points per game, so shouldn’t have much of an issue keeping up with Nebraska if it turns into a shootout. Their losses this year all came against bowl-bound teams, and they have serious upside when they’re clicking.

PICK


The Trojans. I’m really big on taking advantage of the mass drama that’s going on over at Nebraska, and to top it off, I believe that USC’s defense is underrated. They give up just 23.8 points per game, which is 38th best in the country. They’ve faced some tough opponents as well, and they’ll be able to slow down this Nebraska attack. I’m taking USC to get the win, but also to cover the spread. Expect something like 34-21.


USC TROJANS
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Posted: #33
Man you guys do a LOT of work on these games.  Thanks so much for the time you devote to them, and helping me make some decisions on some of these bowl games.
 
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Posted: #34
This guy is good.
 
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How come u don't list how many unit u play
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Man you guys do a LOT of work on these games.  Thanks so much for the time you devote to them, and helping me make some decisions on some of these bowl games.

Thanks Cooler!!!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by oakas6:

This guy is good.

Thanks buddy!!!  As Beane tears our A's apart.  Probably traded another player as I typed this. lol
 
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Quote Originally Posted by GotPhoTai:

How come u don't list how many unit u play

I do my friend.  But I cant post them eveywhere.  Its on the Spooky Express website.  Can only do so much. 
 
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Posted: #40
R+L NEW ORLEANS BOWL

NEVADA vs LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE
Saturday, Dec. 20, 11:00 a.m.ET
ESPN

UPDATE

This is a tough one to call, but I'm rolling with the hot hand. The Ragin' Cajuns finished the year on a high note, while the Wolfpack actually lost two of their final three games. It's going to be a close one, and these two are actually incredibly evenly matched across the board. The Wolfpack average 197.8 passing yards and 215.2 rushing yards per game, while the Ragin' Cajuns average 188.9 passing and 228.4 rushing. Defensively, both allow over 30 points per game, so we could be in for a shootout. In the end, at this point I'm taking the Ragin' Cajuns and riding the hot hand as I have them winning the game by almost a field goal. Rolling out of the box with a small underdog and also playing the Over in a high scoring game. My side plays are always stronger than my totals but we like em both today. 

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +3 

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE / NEVADA OVER 62 POINTS 

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Posted: #41
Win or lose, appreciate ur dedication And hard work spooky. Bol
 
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Good Stuffs.. Good luck
 
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Quote Originally Posted by baskets4money:


Thanks!!   Do I know you?   
 
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Happy Holidays to everyone here at Covers.Copying this from early in this thread one more time since I previously edited it with some early plays and moneyline dogs that some may have missed that I posted at BTB. ======================
I will post the early recap for some of you that have not followed in years past 
or like their annual reminder.
As the odds change so can the selection. Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.

There will be in the coming weeks analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game. The totals are only Opinions so we focus on the side plays. At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.

ANYTIME A TEAM IS PICKED TO WIN OUTRIGHT AND ALSO COVER WITH THE POINTS MAKES THEM A PLAY. NO LOOKING BACK, NO THINKING ABOUT IT.

There will also be some live underdogs. So be ready. These teams are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs. Get them while they are hot. Don’t be afraid when the pointspread moves. It is done so emotionally. QB gets hurt, RB gets suspended, who cares. The points will be adjusted. These selections are not based on 1 or 2 games but an entire season. Remember since 1977 this has not lost.

Just use some judgement and as we get closer the plays will become clearer and Spooky will let you know.

If you like a Pro game, start making small parlays with them on the best bets. By the time game time comes around you should have tons of action on the later games and that creates tons of profit!!!!

Since many ask about the way I mess with the strengths of each play, this is a synopsis of what I do.

I will usually rank them 1 thru 5 smileys with the 4 and 5 smileys very infrequently. If there is no smiley listed than you can consider that anywhere from an opinion to 1 smiley. When playing on the totals I will almost always consider it an opinion. For the simple reason that I crunch numbers during bowl season and the side has a value outside of what is my opinion. The total is basically my opinion (which is what I do the remaining months of the year). The total is totally subjective. I usually will make the total play anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the listed play. So if I am playing 300 on a game then the total would be anywhere from 75 to 150 if we were to put a numerical dollar value on it. 

Please remember this is what I do, I am not getting paid to determine your money management or what you should be doing. Certainly you can play everything equal or you can follow the smileys. This is just my Bowl Express and sharing with everyone what I am doing for the most part.


=====================================================

This is where I get started early on.

Here will be all the team strengths indicating what teams are the strongest plays based solely on the system and based on the current pointspread.

Without question we will be rolling with Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, Boise State, Wisconsin, Stanford, Iowa and Miami as our solid plays and games we will not be looking back. Lots more big plays as we go along but if you want to get started early on. 

As far as Money Line Dogs here is where you can make a lot of money with very little risk. Parlays, round robins and some straight plays. Jumping on La. Lafayette early as a small underdog, but also lets roll with Colorado State, Rice, Boise State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Houston and Iowa. We may reserve some judgement on these Big Ten teams but right now they look like great value. There are a few other plays that may show great value on the money line but again will have to decide closer to gametime. 

As the odds change so can the selection. There will be more in the coming weeks more analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.
 
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Posted: #46
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL

UTAH STATE vs UTEP
Saturday, Dec. 20, 2:20 p.m. ET
ESPN
UPDATE

Now, it's time to get to the pick for this one, and while Utah State has a ridiculously talented defense, I don't believe UTEP will give away too much here. Senior quarterback Jameill Showers has only five interceptions on the year, and three of them came in one tough game. Add in the fact that the Miners are likely to focus in on giving Jones the ball as much as possible, and I think we see UTEP keep this one close right down to the finish. We have Utah State winning by about a touchdown. Not a strong play at this time but I'll take the big points and assess my selection closer to kickoff. Taking the underdog and the big points and also playing small on a low scoring game and hope it works out for us.

UTEP +11

UTEP/UTAH STATE UNDER 46 POINTS

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Posted: #47
ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL

UTAH vs COLORADO STATE
Saturday, Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Update

Well, it says Utes on paper as the favorite, but I think the wrong team may be getting the love here. The Rams are led by three ridiculously talented offensive playres in Garrett Grayson, who has thrown 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions, running back Dee Hart (16 touchdowns with a 6.7 YPC average) and wide out Rashard Higgins, who has hauled in 89 passes for 1,640 yards and 17 touchdowns. Want more? The Rams allow just 23.4 points per game, which is 34th best in the country. I'll take the Rams to win it outright in one of our bigger plays of the bowl season at this point. Can you say money line dog! Sticking with the underdog but not going all in until I get a better feel of how these games are going.

COLORADO STATE +4

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Posted: #48

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs AIR FORCE
Saturday, Dec. 20, 5:45 p.m. ET
ESPN
Update

The Broncos are getting some love in this game, and it's for good reason. Both teams have strong running games and have done well on the defensive side of the ball. I think the difference comes down to Western Michigan's ability to air it out consistently, as quarterback Zach Terrell has thrown for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns on the year. Western Michigan gets it done and wins this game by more than a touchdown! Really liking this game and going all in with the Broncos.

WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS PK (moneyline)
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Posted: #49
RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL

SOUTH ALABAMA vs BOWLING GREEN
Saturday, Dec. 20, 9:15 p.m. ET
ESPN
Update

It's tough to not imagine the emotion that this South Alabama team will be playing with. They have so much emotion and reason to be hyped up about this game, as it's their first ever bowl game. While Bowling Green has been solid this year, I think South Alabama's defense is simply going to get it done against the Falcons. This year, the Jaugars allowed just 25.8 points per game, while the Falcons allowed 33.9, a stat which will come into play. I am playing South Alabama and think they win this game although not the strongest play of bowl season. Really like the Under as well and it should be a low scoring game. Always play the totals less than I do the sides as noted again and again.

South Alabama Jaguars PK (moneyline)
South Alabama / Bowling Green Under 55 Points
 Check back closer to game day for any changes to the spread and/or prediction here and at Spooky Express.
 
 
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Good to see your thoughtful writeups again!  Tears thru most of the clutter on these boards!
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