home favorites (in the -1/-28.5 range) vs revenge, after a dog game and before a dog game are 381-521 ats. fading them in the long run gives you a 57.8% situation which is a very good edge on yor bookie. this system wins historically in every week...
there is one play that fits this system that i like this week...
ecu played as a dog the last time out against vt and they have a rivalery game against unc next week in which they will be a dog.
they won against uab last year, so they are going against revenge here...
and to make things worst for them, they played as underdogs last two games (vt and sc), they will play as underdogs the next two weeks (unc and hou) and this is a game vs multiple revenge too as they beat uab 4 straight times.
so, when we put all that in perspective here is what we get...
home favorites in the -3.5/-19.5 range after at least two dog games, before at least two dog games and going against at least a quadruple revenge are 0-15 ats in last 15.
i will take uab +13 pts and hope for their offense to wake up !
Great stuff!! 
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