TD Week 1

Several other Week 1 leans, but I'm going to wait at this time.

Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)

Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)

Laroja, Short version is I like a well coached team with improving talent (top 25 recruiting class at Purdue, really?) coming off the terrible bowl loss to think about all offseason and I like the Purdue passing game matchup against a mostly new Nevada secondary.  

Other tidbits:

Most preview magazines list only 4 starters back on offense.  I would consider QB E. Sindelar and TE B. Hopkins as 2 more starters back.  And replacing RBs and interior linemen does not concern me too much in this case.  And they'll be fine at WR behind Rondale Moore.  This game could be a shootout, I think Moore is a difference maker in this matchup.

Purdue was statistically one of the most volatile teams in 2018 for ATS margins.  This can be looked at as a negative, but I think it also means they have a higher ceiling.

The Purdue defense should be improved after the 2018 reset with 9 starters back plus a grad transfer LB that has starting experience.  The 2019 version of Purdue's defense should be more like the 2017 team (Brohm/Holt's 1st season there - also had several returning starters back that season).  Nevada will probably get some yards through the air against this secondary in game #1, but Purdue has some talented recruits with good size ready to start contributing in the secondary.

My final 2018 baseline #s put the line at -8.1, still working on 'official' 2019 #s, but I know enough already that Nevada will be rated about the same in 2019 as last year and Purdue will be rated a little higher.  So, -8.5 opener looks about right.  I just like the matchup and I don't think the standard home field advantage really applies here either.  I also always try to look at how teams perform against opponents from other tiers, small sample size, but Nevada was only 1-2 ATS (per my final #s anyway) and -3.6 points per game for median ATS margin against their top 3 opponents (similar talent to Purdue).  And I try to account for "skewed results" in each postseason, but one could argue that the -8.1 is off slightly.  Nevada getting too much 'credit' for a blowout win vs. Portland State and Purdue being penalized too much for the bowl game no-show.

Hope that helps some.  Best of luck to you in 2019!

Purdue -8.5  (2u)

Rutgers -11 (1u)

Rice +24.5  (1u)

Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)

Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)

Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)

I spend a lot of time studying postseason #s; ATS margins for postseason "true lines", how teams played against different tier opponents, and how consistent they were for ATS margin using the true line.  According to my #s USC was actually the #1 most consistent FBS team week to week for ATS margin standard deviation in 2018.  In other words, they were consistently bad week to week for their standards.  Once the power ratings and point spreads adjusted, the actual game results were very close to the the true line.  I mention this because I think the new offense gives them the ability to be a little bit more volatile; blow out opponents that are inferior athletically on the perimeter.  But it may also allow opponents that matchup well to make USC one-dimensional on offense.  Harrell does a decent job of trying to incorporate the run game and is not as all-in Air Raid passing as others from that 'family', but I do worry some that the running game was down in 2018 and now loses 3 starters.  And they were already bad in points per scoring opportunity last season.  Will they be able to convert on 3rd & 1 / 3rd & 2 situations this year against decent run defenses?   And unfortunately for USC, they don't play too many teams that they are going to just dominate athletically, at least not early in the season.  Those first 6 games are a b!tch of a schedule.  Odds that Helton is the first HC fired might be worth a shot.  The new offense needs to be clicking right away.  And I'm not sure what to think of Harrell's quote about the talent being there, but just have to get them excited abut what we're doing..... really, they're not somewhat excited on their own??  Just sounds like they're an unmotivated group that doesn't know how to put in the work to improve and be a national powerhouse level team anymore.  I may be reading between the lines too much, but it is interesting.  I have USC rated at 79.5.  I also have Fresno State just over 13 ppg worse than last year.  And the line is still -9.9.  And despite the inexperience, I think a bunch of California kids will really be focused to play "Big Brother" again.  Last year it was vs. UCLA.  Fresno State wasn't interested in playing at Minnesota last season, but a week later they were definitely focused and ready for UCLA.  I think USC could use a blowout win here to cool that hot seat some, but I just don't think it happens.  Fresno will be decent despite the losses and they are a well coached group that plays hard.  

On defense, USC's secondary is a concern if injuries start to pile up (could be some shootouts against the right opponent).  But I think the USC D-line is improved and the rushing ypg allowed finally goes down after 2 years of subpar #s for their standards.

Cheers LHH, I've been busy as he!l with work and coaching Little League baseball.  Trying to get ahead of the game on the CFB offseason work as you can see, but there's a lot to be done still.  Best of luck this season!  I'll see you around for sure.

They have a considerably tougher schedule and it's heavily juiced, but still seems like a real soft number.  I didn't put much time in on this one, but 6-6 to win and it takes 5-7 to beat me.  I'm in!

Illinois getting Brandon Peters makes that over 3 bet look pretty good!

I made my first wager on Purdue -9.

GL

Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)

Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)

Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110

UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140

Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190

typo corrected in red.

UNIMAN, good luck to you this season!  ..... And 3 is too low for Illinois with a schedule that opens with Akron, at UConn & Eastern Michigan and then has a home game vs. Rutgers.  They return a lot of experience.  I liked Over 3 before the QB transfer..... that can only help increase competition at the position.

Upside, good luck to you this season!  Some low hanging fruit this time of year, well done!

Here's the rest that was cut off in my last post.