I'm seeing U7 -155 @ BOL and U6.5 -115 @ 5D. I would still take Under 6.5 if you're stuck with that number. I see 4 wins, 5 losses, & 3 toss ups. Arguably 4 wins, 6 losses, and 2 toss ups. I think worst case for an Under 6.5 bet is that they are 6-5 going into the ASU game and you can hedge if you want to back out. Best case you've already won when they lose to Oregon and Utah back to back. I can't see them winning 7 games with a brand new WR corps and this athlete playing QB that doesn't fit the system and vice versa (system doesn't fit him). I am not buying that the OC will try to run K. Tate more this year by design and that the reason he didn't run much last year was a bad ankle. He was healthy enough to play most of the season. I think that's a BS promise to the fans & media. Even if he runs a little more, it won't be near as much as the Rich Rod offense. Mazzone's offseason quote was that he's still learning to play QB. ....That doesn't sound like adopting the system to fit his QB's athletic abilities. And now they lose their top 4 WRs. Could be interesting.
If this gets real ugly, the new top FR WR projected to start did go to HS with the new highly rated true FR QB - wouldn't shock me at all if late in the season that they're both on the field developing together as the future of this offense.
should say worst case
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
I'm seeing U7 -155 @ BOL and U6.5 -115 @ 5D. I would still take Under 6.5 if you're stuck with that number. I see 4 wins, 5 losses, & 3 toss ups. Arguably 4 wins, 6 losses, and 2 toss ups. I think worst case for an Under 6.5 bet is that they are 6-5 going into the ASU game and you can hedge if you want to back out. Best case you've already won when they lose to Oregon and Utah back to back. I can't see them winning 7 games with a brand new WR corps and this athlete playing QB that doesn't fit the system and vice versa (system doesn't fit him). I am not buying that the OC will try to run K. Tate more this year by design and that the reason he didn't run much last year was a bad ankle. He was healthy enough to play most of the season. I think that's a BS promise to the fans & media. Even if he runs a little more, it won't be near as much as the Rich Rod offense. Mazzone's offseason quote was that he's still learning to play QB. ....That doesn't sound like adopting the system to fit his QB's athletic abilities. And now they lose their top 4 WRs. Could be interesting.
If this gets real ugly, the new top FR WR projected to start did go to HS with the new highly rated true FR QB - wouldn't shock me at all if late in the season that they're both on the field developing together as the future of this offense.
Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year
LoveCFB1,
Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
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Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:
Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year
LoveCFB1,
Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year
LoveCFB1,Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
Yes, you make a good point there, thank you sir!
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:
Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year
LoveCFB1,Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
I can't see anyone else in the EAST touching Ohio this season .
The O LINE is the major concern after losing 3 ALL MAC starters ....3rd OL coach in 3 years as well ....
Major plus having 4 games to work it out before MAC play begins ...
I'll be hedging my WMU with OHIO at +300 , and hope to pound the division when released
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
LoveCFB1,
Also, in going through that exercise, I have to say that I do like the Ohio U. conference futures odds better than their RSW Total because I think they represent the MAC East and then you have a nice hedge opportunity in the MAC title game with over +300 locked in.
I can't see anyone else in the EAST touching Ohio this season .
The O LINE is the major concern after losing 3 ALL MAC starters ....3rd OL coach in 3 years as well ....
Major plus having 4 games to work it out before MAC play begins ...
I'll be hedging my WMU with OHIO at +300 , and hope to pound the division when released
TD1 - can you talk some more about your Rutgers pick? Do you think they may be undervalued, especially in a must win situation like against UMASS in week 1? I like them as well...
LonghornHoosier
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TD1 - can you talk some more about your Rutgers pick? Do you think they may be undervalued, especially in a must win situation like against UMASS in week 1? I like them as well...
TD1 - can you talk some more about your Rutgers pick? Do you think they may be undervalued, especially in a must win situation like against UMASS in week 1? I like them as well...
I wouldn't say Rutgers is undervalued, they're right where I put them overall in terms of a PR# value; one of the worse two Power 5 teams along with Kansas. Chris Ash still gets fired after 2 or 3 wins this year.
But, in this first game, I think UMass will be 'that' bad. I am not through reviewing every team yet, but there's a decent chance that UMass is the lowest rated FBS team; they're definitely a bottom 5 to 7 team. Rutgers doesn't get the chance to beat up on lousy opponents very often; Texas State last year and UMass this year. They need to show some competence in game #1 on offense and UMass is a good opponent to do this against.
PR#s thus far:
Rutgers 60.9
UMass 42.5
Random tidbit - if you're ever in Amherst, Mass, be sure to take the kids to the Amherst college sledding hill. One of the best out there! I lived in Amherst for a couple years growing up (old man coached in the Yankee conference in the mid 80s....... Tubby Raymond / Rich Gannon used to kick our @ss..... and that Gordie Lockbaum non-league down the road at Holy Cross .... other than that, 8-3 was pretty good)
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
TD1 - can you talk some more about your Rutgers pick? Do you think they may be undervalued, especially in a must win situation like against UMASS in week 1? I like them as well...
I wouldn't say Rutgers is undervalued, they're right where I put them overall in terms of a PR# value; one of the worse two Power 5 teams along with Kansas. Chris Ash still gets fired after 2 or 3 wins this year.
But, in this first game, I think UMass will be 'that' bad. I am not through reviewing every team yet, but there's a decent chance that UMass is the lowest rated FBS team; they're definitely a bottom 5 to 7 team. Rutgers doesn't get the chance to beat up on lousy opponents very often; Texas State last year and UMass this year. They need to show some competence in game #1 on offense and UMass is a good opponent to do this against.
PR#s thus far:
Rutgers 60.9
UMass 42.5
Random tidbit - if you're ever in Amherst, Mass, be sure to take the kids to the Amherst college sledding hill. One of the best out there! I lived in Amherst for a couple years growing up (old man coached in the Yankee conference in the mid 80s....... Tubby Raymond / Rich Gannon used to kick our @ss..... and that Gordie Lockbaum non-league down the road at Holy Cross .... other than that, 8-3 was pretty good)
I wouldn't say Rutgers is undervalued, they're right where I put them overall in terms of a PR# value; one of the worse two Power 5 teams along with Kansas. Chris Ash still gets fired after 2 or 3 wins this year.
But, in this first game, I think UMass will be 'that' bad. I am not through reviewing every team yet, but there's a decent chance that UMass is the lowest rated FBS team; they're definitely a bottom 5 to 7 team. Rutgers doesn't get the chance to beat up on lousy opponents very often; Texas State last year and UMass this year. They need to show some competence in game #1 on offense and UMass is a good opponent to do this against.
PR#s thus far:
Rutgers 60.9
UMass 42.5
Random tidbit - if you're ever in Amherst, Mass, be sure to take the kids to the Amherst college sledding hill. One of the best out there! I lived in Amherst for a couple years growing up (old man coached in the Yankee conference in the mid 80s....... Tubby Raymond / Rich Gannon used to kick our @ss..... and that Gordie Lockbaum non-league down the road at Holy Cross .... other than that, 8-3 was pretty good)
LLH, if anything, in terms of value, UMass may be overvalued and not being penalized just yet for how bad they'll be. I am projecting some with that PR#. I think Walt Bell runs a real sh!t-show this year. I wonder what the Total is going to be in that week #2 matchup vs. the Salukis........ 79.5 per Massey. Nice, I better start looking into SIU, might be a play there.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
I wouldn't say Rutgers is undervalued, they're right where I put them overall in terms of a PR# value; one of the worse two Power 5 teams along with Kansas. Chris Ash still gets fired after 2 or 3 wins this year.
But, in this first game, I think UMass will be 'that' bad. I am not through reviewing every team yet, but there's a decent chance that UMass is the lowest rated FBS team; they're definitely a bottom 5 to 7 team. Rutgers doesn't get the chance to beat up on lousy opponents very often; Texas State last year and UMass this year. They need to show some competence in game #1 on offense and UMass is a good opponent to do this against.
PR#s thus far:
Rutgers 60.9
UMass 42.5
Random tidbit - if you're ever in Amherst, Mass, be sure to take the kids to the Amherst college sledding hill. One of the best out there! I lived in Amherst for a couple years growing up (old man coached in the Yankee conference in the mid 80s....... Tubby Raymond / Rich Gannon used to kick our @ss..... and that Gordie Lockbaum non-league down the road at Holy Cross .... other than that, 8-3 was pretty good)
LLH, if anything, in terms of value, UMass may be overvalued and not being penalized just yet for how bad they'll be. I am projecting some with that PR#. I think Walt Bell runs a real sh!t-show this year. I wonder what the Total is going to be in that week #2 matchup vs. the Salukis........ 79.5 per Massey. Nice, I better start looking into SIU, might be a play there.
LHH, if anything, in terms of value, UMass may be overvalued and not being penalized just yet for how bad they'll be. I am projecting some with that PR#. I think Walt Bell runs a real sh!t-show this year. I wonder what the Total is going to be in that week #2 matchup vs. the Salukis........ 79.5 per Massey. Nice, I better start looking into SIU, might be a play there.
Typo there, I'm sober right now I swear. Just need to sleep.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
LHH, if anything, in terms of value, UMass may be overvalued and not being penalized just yet for how bad they'll be. I am projecting some with that PR#. I think Walt Bell runs a real sh!t-show this year. I wonder what the Total is going to be in that week #2 matchup vs. the Salukis........ 79.5 per Massey. Nice, I better start looking into SIU, might be a play there.
Typo there, I'm sober right now I swear. Just need to sleep.
Dont post very often, but the UMASS / Rutgers game caught my eye for UMass to cover, which was not my expectation. I have Rutgers/UMass diff around 10.5, under the 14.5 spread. UMass doesn't have much going its way - new coach, new QB, weak OL, while the defense lost its top defenders/tacklers, with a weak secondary. Rutgers is not great, but it does match up well against UMASS, especially with running and play action pass. Strong running games typically consume time and keep lower scores. I could see a 24-10 type game.
Personally, I am not taking the game.
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Dont post very often, but the UMASS / Rutgers game caught my eye for UMass to cover, which was not my expectation. I have Rutgers/UMass diff around 10.5, under the 14.5 spread. UMass doesn't have much going its way - new coach, new QB, weak OL, while the defense lost its top defenders/tacklers, with a weak secondary. Rutgers is not great, but it does match up well against UMASS, especially with running and play action pass. Strong running games typically consume time and keep lower scores. I could see a 24-10 type game.
Dont post very often, but the UMASS / Rutgers game caught my eye for UMass to cover, which was not my expectation. I have Rutgers/UMass diff around 10.5, under the 14.5 spread. UMass doesn't have much going its way - new coach, new QB, weak OL, while the defense lost its top defenders/tacklers, with a weak secondary. Rutgers is not great, but it does match up well against UMASS, especially with running and play action pass. Strong running games typically consume time and keep lower scores. I could see a 24-10 type game.
Personally, I am not taking the game.
My post season 2018 #s had this game lined at -10.1. Make sure you make offseason adjustments. And please don't bet on UMass in 2019 until you see them play a couple times. Good luck this year.
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Quote Originally Posted by allenrikvik:
Dont post very often, but the UMASS / Rutgers game caught my eye for UMass to cover, which was not my expectation. I have Rutgers/UMass diff around 10.5, under the 14.5 spread. UMass doesn't have much going its way - new coach, new QB, weak OL, while the defense lost its top defenders/tacklers, with a weak secondary. Rutgers is not great, but it does match up well against UMASS, especially with running and play action pass. Strong running games typically consume time and keep lower scores. I could see a 24-10 type game.
Personally, I am not taking the game.
My post season 2018 #s had this game lined at -10.1. Make sure you make offseason adjustments. And please don't bet on UMass in 2019 until you see them play a couple times. Good luck this year.
werd. I like Sonny Dykes and the Mustangs this year
The Ponies should be decent in year 2 for SD. But there are quite a few teams in the AAC that I like this year and somebody has to lose.
Went back to put some more $ on SMU +3.5 again last night and BOL had already moved it back to +3 -110. Son of a gun. .... More confident on SMU +3.5 than the 0.5u play.
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Quote Originally Posted by OurTake:
werd. I like Sonny Dykes and the Mustangs this year
The Ponies should be decent in year 2 for SD. But there are quite a few teams in the AAC that I like this year and somebody has to lose.
Went back to put some more $ on SMU +3.5 again last night and BOL had already moved it back to +3 -110. Son of a gun. .... More confident on SMU +3.5 than the 0.5u play.
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