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TD Week 1

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Posted: #76
A couple updates.......

Week 1 plays locked in:
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & SMU +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Added:  Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)


 
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Posted: #77
Great grab Rutgers-11
 
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Game 1 Starting QB props:Minnesota - Any other QB starts vs. Zack Annexstad +110 (small) - (i.e., I'm taking Tanner Morgan to continue starting as he did late in 2018)

This is a winner so take it to the pay window, and the season has not even started yet! an_2drinks

https://www.startribune.com/gophers-qb-annexstad-out-indefinitely-with-foot-injury/516246752/

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Game 1 Starting QB props:Minnesota - Any other QB starts vs. Zack Annexstad +110 (small) - (i.e., I'm taking Tanner Morgan to continue starting as he did late in 2018)
This is a winner so take it to the pay window, and the season has not even started yet!  [link from unapproved source]

Fricking site would not let me post the link for the story obviously. 

Gophers sophomore quarterback Zack Annexstad injured his foot Friday at practice and will be out indefinitely.

Annexstad was battling for the starting quarterback job with fellow sophomore Tanner Morgan. The team announced the news of his injury Saturday morning ahead of a 3 p.m. open practice at TCF Bank Stadium.

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

Great grab Rutgers-11


saw your card, themaceo ...... think 3 of your 4 plays we're both on.  Good luck in week 1 and throughout 2019!
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

This is a winner so take it to the pay window, and the season has not even started yet!  [link from unapproved source]

Fricking site would not let me post the link for the story obviously. 

Gophers sophomore quarterback Zack Annexstad injured his foot Friday at practice and will be out indefinitely.

Annexstad was battling for the starting quarterback job with fellow sophomore Tanner Morgan. The team announced the news of his injury Saturday morning ahead of a 3 p.m. open practice at TCF Bank Stadium.


Urban, how's it going?  ..... and yes, I saw the news on Annexstad's injury.  Prop taken down immediately of course. 

That's too bad for Annexstad, never like to see a guy go down with an injury.  I honestly thought that Tanner Morgan beats out a healthy Zack Annexstad.  I was surprised the prices were not reversed; Morgan favored at -150ish and all Others (including Annexstad) at around +110.  IMO Morgan has more upside thus far from the sample size of each that we've seen.  ..... but you never know - things can change, perhaps Annexstad was much improved this offseason.  My understanding is that Annexstad was healthy enough to play late in 2019 after his injury vs. Nebraska, but Morgan retained the starting role when Fleck had two QBs to choose from at the time.  My 2018 ATS margin #s show games that Annexstad started, Minnesota averaged -5.0 ppg behind their full season PR#s expected performance (now that includes the Nebraska game that both QBs played in which was -21.1 ATS margin alone (volatile team, the 2018 Gophers)).  In games that Morgan started, they were +5.1 ppg for ATS margin.  If I include the Nebraska game for Morgan, that figure reduces to +1.3 ppg (still quite a bit above the -5.0 figure for the first 7 games of the year when Annexstad started).

Anyway, too bad I now cannot prove that Morgan would have won it on the field in a head to head position battle, but the +110 really offered some value IMO.

Minny being a very volatile team in 2018 reminds me, I should try to take the time to post my postseason #s for how volatile or consistent a team was for ATS margin (standard deviation).

  Good luck this year, Urban.  Pay window, buddy - see you there!!
 
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Posted: #82
Hopefully some more offshore Totals coming out soon.....  They are slowly, but surely being released.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Added:  Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)



 
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Posted: #83
Almost forgot I did this one this morning..... guess I really wanted to mix an SMU moneyline play in somewhere.  

For the record, here's a Week 1 donation.  Might even be over by Week 0.

Parlay:
Florida / Miami Under 50.5 -110
Hawaii +14.5 -170
Rice +24.5 -130
Rutgers ML -630
Purdue ML -335
Illinois ML -800
Louisiana Lafayette +24.5 -150
Tennessee ML -3500
SMU ML +138
Oregon / Auburn Under 59 -110
Notre Dame ML -1375

Risking 0.1u to win 7.49u.

 
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Posted: #84
Based on my final 2018 post season PR#s, these are the ATS margins (standard deviation).  The top ranked teams (lower standard deviation #s) were the most consistent teams (win or lose) for results finishing near the "true" point spread.  The lower ranked teams were the most inconsistent teams (win or lose) in terms of actual score results aligning with the week to week "true" point spreads. ..... usually there's a reason / explanation if you dig a little.  Not always a bad thing going into the next season, sometimes can indicate a high ceiling if that particular team just cleans up a few things to improve their consistency in a good way.

1. USC  5.7
2.  Stanford  6.9
3.  Indiana  6.9
4.  Eastern Michigan  6.9
5.  New Mexico State  7.0
6.  Wyoming  7.7
7.  Arkansas State  7.9
8.  Miami (OH)  8.5
9.  Tulsa  8.5
10.  Louisiana Lafayette  9.1
11.  South Alabama  9.1
12.  Arizona State  9.1
13.  Washington  9.2
14.  Boston College  9.3
15.  Central Florida  9.6
16.  Oklahoma  9.7
17.  BYU  9.9
18.  TCU  10.0
19.  Air Force  10.0
20.  Southern Miss  10.1
21.  Northern Illinois  10.1
22.  Rice  10.5
23.  Marshall 10.6
24.  Texas  10.6
25.  SMU  10.7
26.  Fresno State  10.8
27.  Texas A&M  10.8
28.  Georgia  10.8
29.  Charlotte  10.9
30.  Hawaii  11.0
31.  Bowling Green  11.1
32.  Washington State  11.4
33.  Cincinnati  11.4
34.  Navy  11.4
35.  Memphis  11.4
36.  Michigan State  11.5
37.  Florida State  11.6
38.  Connecticut  11.6
39.  Utah State  11.7
40.  Texas State  11.7
41.  Western Kentucky  11.7
42.  Baylor  11.8
43.  Missouri  12.0
44.  UTEP  12.3
45.  Virginia  12.3
46.  San Jose State  12.4
47.  UTSA  12.4
48.  Kansas State  12.5
49.  Kent State  12.5
50.  Middle Tennessee State  12.5
51.  LSU  12.6
52.  Louisville  12.6
53.  Utah  12.7
54.  South Florida  12.7
55.  Appalachian State  12.7
56.  South Carolina  12.7
57.  Oregon State  12.8
58.  Oregon  12.9
59.  Georgia Tech  12.9
60.  Mississippi State  12.9
61.  San Diego State  12.9
62.  Boise State  13.0
63.  Louisiana Tech  13.0
64.  Alabama  13.1
65.  North Carolina State 13.1
66.  Notre Dame  13.3
67.  Colorado State  13.4
68.  Troy  13.4
69.  Colorado  13.4
70.  Georgia State  13.5
71.  Georgia Southern  13.5
72.  Kansas  13.5
73.  Akron  13.6
74.  Florida  13.6
75.  California  13.7
76.  Tulane  13.7
77.  North Carolina  13.8
78.  Nevada  13.8
79.  West Virginia  13.9
80.  Kentucky  13.9
81.  Massachusetts  13.9
82.  Northwestern  14.0
83.  Toledo  14.0
84.  Central Michigan  14.0
85.  Ohio State  14.0
86.  Arkansas  14.0
87.  Nebraska  14.1
88.  Iowa  14.2
89.  Buffalo  14.2
90.  Clemson  14.3
91.  Oklahoma State  14.4
92.  Syracuse  14.5
93.  UCLA  14.6
94.  Ball State  14.6
95.  Wisconsin  14.8
96.  Mississippi  14.9
97.  Iowa State  15.0
98.  Temple  15.1
99.  Vanderbilt  15.1
100.  Florida Atlantic  15.3
101.  Arizona  15.4
102.  Florida International  15.4
103.  New Mexico  15.7
104.  Michigan  15.7
105.  UNLV  15.8
106.  Miami  15.9
107.  Maryland  15.9
108.  Rutgers  16.2
109.  Auburn  16.4
110.  East Carolina  16.4
111.  Tennessee  16.5
112.  Pittsburgh  16.5
113.  Western Michigan  16.7
114.  Penn State  16.7
115.  Coastal Carolina  16.7
116.  Virginia Tech  16.7
117.  UAB  16.9
118.  North Texas 17.0
119.  Liberty  17.3
120.  Houston  18.7
121.  Ohio University  18.7
122.  Louisiana Monroe  18.8
123.  Old Dominion  19.1
124.  Texas Tech  19.5
125.  Illinois  20.5
126.  Minnesota  20.8
127.  Purdue  20.9
128.  Wake Forest  21.1
129.  Army  21.1
130.  Duke  23.0



 
Captain
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Posted: #85
College Extra stuff coming out today.......

Week 1 plays locked in:
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)

Added:  Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Added:  Villanova +10 (hook) -130



 
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Posted: #86

Good stuff w Hawaii I think they'll be better than the 5.5 RSW number, return all those starters and they'll lose 2-3 games IDK, they gotta be pumped for this year..11ish just too many for game one 

 
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Posted: #87
Added a couple more College Extra games tonight.....
Waiting on some more Totals to come out on the FBS games.  

And to whoever tailed on EKU and Nova, smart thinking!  ....I see the lines have moved some more.  

Week 1 plays locked in:
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Added:  Cal Poly -6
Added:  Montana +4.5


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130


 
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Posted: #88
Ok, got what I wanted on the Total I've been eyeing since this afternoon......

Week 1 plays locked in:
Added:  Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
Added:  UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Added:  Murray State -30.5 & -31


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
Captain
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Posted: #89
Added one College Extra play this morning.  Added one more & bumped up another tonight.  
FBS vs. FCS lines starting to appear offshore today.....They did a nice job of adjusting from Massey Ratings on several games that I would have otherwise looked at.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Added:  Minnesota -11

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Added:  Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
Captain
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Posted: #90

One more FCS play tonight:

Added: Furman -17 (hook)

 
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Posted: #91
Added one play tonight.....

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Added:  Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Minnesota -11

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
Legend
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Posted: #92

Good stuff! BOL on the season

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
Captain
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Good stuff! BOL on the season


Thanks wmi799, 

Same to you, good luck this season!
 
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Posted: #94
LOOK AT THIS BOYS.....FAKE PLAYS !......MADE UP LINES !
  > I ain't seen none of these lines!....my gawd the treachery !


Sorry couldn't resist pal ha.....as usual like pretty much all of those
  * you really should be ashamed showing guys here how to do things THE RIGHT WAY......INSTEAD OF DUMBING DOWN THE FORUM LIKE SO MANY HERE PREFER wtf..................

Building your own numbers > shopping for best line (when / where) > breaking match-ups down from as many angles as possible.....playing games 'they don't want you playing' > FCS / props...etc = pretty much impossible to lose $$$....................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

LOOK AT THIS BOYS.....FAKE PLAYS !......MADE UP LINES !
  > I ain't seen none of these lines!....my gawd the treachery !


Sorry couldn't resist pal ha.....as usual like pretty much all of those
  * you really should be ashamed showing guys here how to do things THE RIGHT WAY......INSTEAD OF DUMBING DOWN THE FORUM LIKE SO MANY HERE PREFER wtf..................

Building your own numbers > shopping for best line (when / where) > breaking match-ups down from as many angles as possible.....playing games 'they don't want you playing' > FCS / props...etc = pretty much impossible to lose $$$....................

There is another forum that does just that! My god don't post a pick that's no longer available just because you did your homework and then grabbed it quick. Sheeesh!

Too bad I'm too chik'n chit to use offshore/online books. May have to if/when I leave Nev.
 
Captain
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Posted: #96
Some more FBS vs. FCS lines are up......

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Minnesota -11
Added:  Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
Captain
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

LOOK AT THIS BOYS.....FAKE PLAYS !......MADE UP LINES !
  > I ain't seen none of these lines!....my gawd the treachery !


Sorry couldn't resist pal ha.....as usual like pretty much all of those
  * you really should be ashamed showing guys here how to do things THE RIGHT WAY......INSTEAD OF DUMBING DOWN THE FORUM LIKE SO MANY HERE PREFER wtf..................

Building your own numbers > shopping for best line (when / where) > breaking match-ups down from as many angles as possible.....playing games 'they don't want you playing' > FCS / props...etc = pretty much impossible to lose $$$....................

It's all good BA.  .....just doing my thing again this year.  I certainly don't have time to teach, just trying to lead by example / show how it can be done if prepared.  Yeah, the dumbing down the forum nonsense gets old pretty quickly.  

Forced myself to generate a 2018 postseason PR# for every FCS team as well.  A glutton for punishment I guess - took a lot of time to do both levels, but you do end up learning a lot about how each team performs against various "tiers" of opponents.  Basically done with 2019 PR#s for all FBS teams.  Need to revisit a couple conferences, other minor adjustments coming based on suspensions, injuries, etc. But overall pretty ready to go on the FBS stuff.  Still working through adjustments for FCS teams for 2019 -- almost certainly won't finish .... trying to prioritize.

You have a good one, big guy!  I'll see you around I am sure.


TD 
 
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Posted: #98

TD21 - do you think McLane Carter will win the starting QB job for Rutgers...He is listed as -150 odds v +150 for Stikowski...I think Carter is legit, and Ash is just giving the legacy QB a shot at the job.  Carters is a senior grad tr and Stitkowski is a true Soph.     GL this season...

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #99

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

LOOK AT THIS BOYS.....FAKE PLAYS !......MADE UP LINES !  > I ain't seen none of these lines!....my gawd the treachery !Sorry couldn't resist pal ha.....as usual like pretty much all of those  * you really should be ashamed showing guys here how to do things THE RIGHT WAY......INSTEAD OF DUMBING DOWN THE FORUM LIKE SO MANY HERE PREFER wtf..................Building your own numbers > shopping for best line (when / where) > breaking match-ups down from as many angles as possible.....playing games 'they don't want you playing' > FCS / props...etc = pretty much impossible to lose $$$....................

 

Well that's not very valued added, BA...give props to 1, beat everyone else up...What do you think about TD21's picks?  Personally, I like Rutgers on the merits...as do you...I will post my picks for week 1 on 14 August with score predictions and write ups...I will expect you to bust my balls, as appropriate, on my picks.  It will make me a better capper...

LonghornHoosier
 
 
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Posts: 5298
Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

TD21 - do you think McLane Carter will win the starting QB job for Rutgers...He is listed as -150 odds v +150 for Stikowski...I think Carter is legit, and Ash is just giving the legacy QB a shot at the job.  Carters is a senior grad tr and Stitkowski is a true Soph.     GL this season...


LHH, I'm seeing current 5D odds as Carter +120 and Any Other (Sitkowski) -160 ........ are you seeing Carter favored elsewhere?  or did you get it reversed?

Thought I saw +150 on Carter in the last few days, but don't quote me on that.  I'm going from memory and a lot on the brain right now, so I could wrong.

Anyway, no idea on who starts game 1.  I would not play this one myself.  I doubt the coaches even know who's going to start yet.  They'll let it continue to play out in practice.  Carter had a good scrimmage is what's in the news (against the #2 defense) and supposedly there won't be another open to public practice or scrimmage going forward.  Hard to say.  The fact that Sitkowski is practicing with the 1s tells me the coaches "want" him to compete / improve / win the job -- start for the next 3 years and end up a decent QB.  This could end up being one of those scenarios where they basically flip a coin at kickoff of the first game, QB1 starts and stinks it up for 2-3 series and then QB2 comes in and looks solid and starts the rest of the year.  You'd lose your bet in that scenario even though you nailed who the better QB was.  Need to handicap the coaches as much as the QBs (I think).

I truly have no feel on this one from a wagering perspective.  I'll be passing here.

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