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TD Week 1

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Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

TD21 - do you think McLane Carter will win the starting QB job for Rutgers...He is listed as -150 odds v +150 for Stikowski...I think Carter is legit, and Ash is just giving the legacy QB a shot at the job.  Carters is a senior grad tr and Stitkowski is a true Soph.     GL this season...
LHH, I'm seeing current 5D odds as Carter +120 and Any Other (Sitkowski) -160 ........ are you seeing Carter favored elsewhere?  or did you get it reversed?Thought I saw +150 on Carter in the last few days, but don't quote me on that.  I'm going from memory and a lot on the brain right now, so I could wrong.Anyway, no idea on who starts game 1.  I would not play this one myself.  I doubt the coaches even know who's going to start yet.  They'll let it continue to play out in practice.  Carter had a good scrimmage is what's in the news (against the #2 defense) and supposedly there won't be another open to public practice or scrimmage going forward.  Hard to say.  The fact that Sitkowski is practicing with the 1s tells me the coaches "want" him to compete / improve / win the job -- start for the next 3 years and end up a decent QB.  This could end up being one of those scenarios where they basically flip a coin at kickoff of the first game, QB1 starts and stinks it up for 2-3 series and then QB2 comes in and looks solid and starts the rest of the year.  You'd lose your bet in that scenario even though you nailed who the better QB was.  Need to handicap the coaches as much as the QBs (I think).I truly have no feel on this one from a wagering perspective.  I'll be passing here.

 

For clarification - are you referring to the QB battle or taking Rutgers -11 (up to -14.5) in week 1 against UMASS...I will not bet the QB battle prop bet.   I am just trying to determine if I should bet Rutgers in week 1 (probably buying the hook).    The pressure is on Ash.  A half as$ed effort against UMASS (from my perspective a non-cover), and the buzzards will be circling...Stitkowski has to be better than last year.  I think with Carter, Rutgers could possibly win 6 games (ie UMASS, Liberty, Illinois, BC, Maryland, and Indiana/or Minnesota...) That may be wishful thinking and a long shot, but possible with Carter.  And that would save Ash job...Please confirm that you have already wagered Rutgers at -11 per your earlier post and confirm if you are still high on them to cover against UMASS...

Thank's bro...I will post my top 4 later this week...Cheers! 

 

 

 

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #102

LHH, I did think you were asking most recently about a Rutgers starting QB prop bet.

Nonetheless, yes, I’ve been locked in on Rutgers -11 for awhile now.  And yes, I’d still play -14.  I think Rutgers should with by 3 TDs.

 
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Posted: #103
Well d@mn, kinda mad at myself that I didn't add to the Georgia Southern / LSU Total play yesterday when it was up to 60 offshore.  I was close to making this a 4 or 5 unit play, but held off being this early in the year........ Taken off the board and then re-released at 53 as some Vegas sportsbooks opened Totals on all FBS games today. 
Added just one play..... the Northwestern / Stanford total looks a little high to me.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) -- (1u overall)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Added:  Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Minnesota -11
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
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Posted: #104

Im not a futures guy... But Im intrigued enough by dark horses like Minnesota and Iowa State to consider investing in conference title odds.... thanx to guys like you and DoubleUp...

 

Good luck to you this year bro. Always like checkin out your picks

 
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Posted: #105
Update....

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) & Added +3 (hook) (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall on side play) and SMU ML +125 (0.5u to win 0.625u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Minnesota -11
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:
Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)

Villanova +10 (hook) -130
 
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Posted: #106
TD , Interesting news on Blake Anderson taking a leave of Absense
after his wife's  cancer diagnosis. 




Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

TD , Interesting news on Blake Anderson taking a leave of Absense
after his wife's  cancer diagnosis. 





Prayers for the Anderson family.  That's a tough thing. 

.......  Been through a similar situation actually.  My Dad coached his last game in a Week 1 September game while battling cancer, then decided to step down as it was just too much with going through chemo at the same time.  He passed away the following September about a year later.

Coach Anderson gave an update around the time of the Sun Belt conference media day last month and it was very apparent how serious the cancer had become since prior public comments in the spring.  I had this situation factored in (among many other things) to my original decision to play this game knowing that at a minimum this would affect the head coach and his time.  Also knowing that he has two new coordinators and a few other new position coaches as well.  The team will want to play well for their coach here, but I don't see that as sustainable for a full 60 minute game against a quality opponent.
 
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Posted: #108
Circled back to the MAC here recently since I did my MAC PR#s so early.....  probably should of put more on this one initially at the better price, but nonetheless, adding to it now.


Conference Futures:
Utah +350  (0.15u to win 0.525u) & Utah +465 (0.1u to win 0.465).  Overall 0.25u to win 0.99u)
Memphis +400  (0.15u to win 0.6u)
Western Michigan +950  (0.5u to win 4.75u)
Ohio U.  +345  (0.145u to win 0.5u)
Ohio U. to win MAC East +100  (0.15u to win 0.15u) & Added Ohio U. to win MAC East -158  (risking 0.55 to win 0.35u)  (to win 0.5u overall)
Clemson -335  (0.335u to win 0.1u)
Virginia +3000  (0.1u to win 3.0u)  
Iowa State +1250  (0.15u to win 1.875u)
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Prayers for the Anderson family.  That's a tough thing. 

.......  Been through a similar situation actually.  My Dad coached his last game in a Week 1 September game while battling cancer, then decided to step down as it was just too much with going through chemo at the same time.  He passed away the following September about a year later.

Coach Anderson gave an update around the time of the Sun Belt conference media day last month and it was very apparent how serious the cancer had become since prior public comments in the spring.  I had this situation factored in (among many other things) to my original decision to play this game knowing that at a minimum this would affect the head coach and his time.  Also knowing that he has two new coordinators and a few other new position coaches as well.  The team will want to play well for their coach here, but I don't see that as sustainable for a full 60 minute game against a quality opponent.




TD , Blake Anderson on Twitter this morning said his wife has died.

TD   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #110

Been on the golf course all afternoon.  Finally looking at some week 0 FCS lines.

Added: Villanova / Colgate Under 41.5 (1u). .... BOL better # than the other shop for under bettors right now.

 
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Posted: #111
BOL this Season...TD...Hammer the Man...
Lo, they do call to me. In the Halls of Valhalla! Where the Brave may live Forever
 
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Posted: #112
TD. Thank you again for everything. BOL this season.  For Villanova +10 today, what unit size are you thinking? Thanks again, J
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by gabalja:

TD. Thank you again for everything. BOL this season.  For Villanova +10 today, what unit size are you thinking? Thanks again, J

gabalja, sorry for the delayed response.  Been coaching Little League fall baseball this morning.  

If I didn't list a play size it's probably because I was limited.  Believe this is just a 0.2u play.  Small play.


 
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Posted: #114
Looking at Vegas lines now, all I can say is;

What a fantastic card TD!! 







 
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Posted: #115
Added four Team Totals...... also, cleaned up the overall card to incorporate recent plays.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) & +3 (hook) (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall on side play) and SMU ML +125 (0.5u to win 0.625u)  (risking 2u overall on SMU plays)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Added:  Arizona State Under 42.5  (0.25u)
Added:  BYU Under 21.5  (0.25u)
Added:  Pittsburgh Under 22  (0.25u)
Added:  USC Under 31.5  (0.25u)
Minnesota -11
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5 & -17
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:
Villanova / Colgate Under 41.5  (1u)
Villanova +10 (hook) -130  (0.2u)

Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Looking at Vegas lines now, all I can say is;

What a fantastic card TD!! 








You know it, boss!  ..... wouldn't have it any other way.  

Good luck this year UNIMAN!
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by ProPickers:

TD IM LATE TO THE PARTY!!! Great to see one of the goats back for another year doin wat he does best and that’s moving lines!!! Bol this season make huge profit 


Thanks ProPickers, hoping for some decent FBS vs. FCS lines going forward.  We'll see.  Some pretty good adjustments already made by sportsbooks on a few games in particular.

Be selective if you're late to the Week 1 party.  Full season ahead of you.  Good luck this year!  
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by Thor24:

BOL this Season...TD...Hammer the Man...

  Good luck to you as well Thor.  Drop that hammer!  Kinda like this.......    Well, maybe that's your book's computer.    Have a good one.   Very nice to have football back!
 
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Posted: #119
BOL this season TD. Truly one of the best on Covers 
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:

BOL this season TD. Truly one of the best on Covers 

Thanks sportschat!  Best of luck to you this season as well.  
 
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Posted: #121
Continuing to play a few of the original teams listed below where I had not previously listed units.  Updates below.....

Week 0:  
went 3-1, but lost 0.5u overall with the larger play losing.  The pick 6 and touchdown drive in less than a minute right before halftime of that Villanova game changed the complexion of the game (27 2nd qtr points for Nova alone).  Colgate although the inferior team this year, is a team that doesn't give up and plays hard for 60 minutes.  They finally got their offense going in the 2nd half for a couple scores to push this one over while Nova was basically on cruise control.  I am fine with that result.  Would play it the same all over again.  YSU lean was on track too, just waited too long / wasn't ready to lock in -3 on Friday night.  By Saturday morning it was -6.5 to -7 so I just passed.

The Arizona straight up loss helps my largest RSW win total play on Arizona Under 7 -150.

And my parlay survived week 0 and is still alive heading into week 1.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) & +3 (hook) (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall on side play) and SMU ML +125 (0.5u to win 0.625u)  (risking 2u overall on SMU plays)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Arizona State Under 42.5  (0.25u)
BYU Under 21.5  (0.25u)
Pittsburgh Under 22  (0.25u)
USC Under 31.5  (0.25u)
Minnesota -11, -13, -13.5  (1u overall)
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5, -17, -18.5, -20.5  (1u overall) 
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5, +5, +5.5  (1u overall)
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:  (3-1)
Villanova / Colgate Under 41.5  (1u)  LOSS
Villanova +10 (hook) -130  (0.2u)  WIN

Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)  WIN
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)  WIN
 
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Posted: #122

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts!! Best of luck this year TD!! 

 
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Posted: #123
Gotta run.... quick updates.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) & +3 (hook) (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall on side play) and SMU ML +125 (0.5u to win 0.625u)  (risking 2u overall on SMU plays)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Arizona State Under 42.5  (0.25u)
BYU Under 21.5  (0.25u)
Pittsburgh Under 22  (0.25u)
USC Under 31.5  (0.25u)
Minnesota -11, -13, -13.5  (1u overall)
Added:  San Jose State -9.5 & -11 (0.8u overall)
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5, -17, -18.5, -20.5  (1u overall) 
Added:  Chattanooga -7 (hook) & -8.5  (0.7u overall)
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5, +5, +5.5, +7  (1.2u overall)
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:  (3-1)
Villanova / Colgate Under 41.5  (1u)  LOSS
Villanova +10 (hook) -130  (0.2u)  WIN

Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)  WIN
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)  WIN
 
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Posted: #124
One more quick update......

Week 1 plays locked in:
Georgia Southern / LSU Under 59 (2u) & Under 58.5 (1u) -- (3u overall)
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
SMU +3.5  (0.5u) & +3 -105 (0.5u) & +3 (hook) (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall on side play) and SMU ML +125 (0.5u to win 0.625u)  (risking 2u overall on SMU plays)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Virginia / Pittsburgh Under 46.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
UCLA / Cincinnati Under 68.5  (0.5u)
Northwestern / Stanford Under 50  (0.5u)
Georgia Southern +31 -130 (0.25u)
Arizona State Under 42.5  (0.25u)
BYU Under 21.5  (0.25u)
Pittsburgh Under 22  (0.25u)
USC Under 31.5  (0.25u)
Minnesota -11, -13, -13.5  (1.2u overall)
Added:  San Jose State -9.5 & -11 (0.8u overall)
Washington -17 (hook)

Eastern Kentucky -16.5, -17, -18.5, -20.5  (1u overall) 
Added:  Chattanooga -7 (hook) & -8.5  (0.7u overall)
Cal Poly -6
Montana +4.5, +5, +5.5, +7  (1.2u overall)
Murray State -30.5 & -31 & -34.5
Prairie View / Texas Southern Over 55.5
Furman -17 (hook) -130


Week 0 plays locked in:  (3-1)
Villanova / Colgate Under 41.5  (1u)  LOSS
Villanova +10 (hook) -130  (0.2u)  WIN

Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)  WIN
Hawaii +11.5 (0.2u)  WIN
 
 
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Posted: #125

Bumped Minnesota to 1.5u overall....  last 0.3u at -13.

Added:  Minnesota / South Dakota State Under 56 (0.5u)

That should be it for tonight. Let the games begin!

 

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