TD Week 2

Question

2017 Week 2 - my updated PR #s:Alabama  100.0Ohio State 95.2Florida State  91.8 *with healthy D. FrancoisClemson  91.7Auburn  91.1Washington  90.8USC  90.2Penn State  90.1LSU  88.8Florida State  88.8  *without D. Francois  **may need to adjust further.Oklahoma  88.6Oklahoma State  88.3Wisconsin  88.1Georgia  86.6Michigan  86.0Stanford  85.5Notre Dame  82.5Miami  81.6Kansas State  81.6Louisville  81.2Florida  81.2TCU  81.0North Carolina State  80.9Virginia Tech 79.9Washington State  79.7Tennessee  79.7Houston  79.3UCLA  79.0Oregon  78.9Texas A&amp;M  78.9Texas  78.7Utah  78.3Colorado  78.3Arkansas  76.5Iowa  76.3South Carolina  76.3Northwestern  76.0Colorado State 75.9Mississippi State  75.6Pittsburgh  75.3San Diego State  75.3South Florida  75.2Memphis  75.0BYU  74.8Boise State  74.7Nebraska  74.4Vanderbilt  74.4West Virginia  73.9North Carolina  73.8Mississippi  73.8Indiana  73.7Georgia Tech  73.6Kentucky  73.0Duke  72.4Navy  72.4Toledo  72.3Michigan State  72.2Western Michigan  71.8Maryland  71.6Central Florida  71.3Minnesota  71.3Iowa State  71.2Oregon State  71.0Tulsa  71.0Missouri  70.9Appalachian State  70.6Texas Tech  70.3Baylor  70.1Arizona State  70.0SMU  69.6Western Kentucky  69.1California  68.3Louisiana Tech  68.1Troy  67.9Boston College  67.6Wake Forest  67.4Arizona  67.3Wyoming  66.7Miami (OH)  66.3Arkansas State  66.2Temple  66.1Syracuse  65.7Virginia  65.6Purdue  64.9Middle Tennessee 64.7Army  64.3Air Force  64.0Ohio University  64.6Texas San Antonio  63.6Rutgers  62.9Tulane  62.0Kansas  62.0Cincinnati  61.2Marshall  60.5Eastern Michigan  60.4Illinois  60.3Southern Miss 60.0New Mexico  60.0Hawaii  60.0Northern Illinois  59.4Old Dominion  59.3Utah State  58.9Georgia Southern  58.1North Texas  57.1Ball State  56.4Fresno State  55.6Central Michigan  55.6Massachusetts  55.4Connecticut  55.4Nevada  55.3Idaho  55.2Louisiana Monroe  54.7Coastal Carolina  54.7East Carolina  54.6Florida International  54.5Akron  54.5San Jose State  54.4Bowling Green  54.3Louisiana Lafayette  54.0Florida Atlantic  53.4South Alabama  53.2Georgia State  53.1Buffalo  51.0New Mexico State  50.3UAB  48.5Rice  48.5UNLV  48.3Kent State  47.6UTEP  46.2Charlotte  45.0Texas State  41.9

TD21 · Answer

2017 Week 2 - my updated PR #s:Alabama  100.0Ohio State 95.2Florida State  91.8 *with healthy D. FrancoisClemson  91.7Auburn  91.1Washington  90.8USC  90.2Penn State  90.1LSU  88.8Florida State  88.8  *without D. Francois  **may need to adjust further.Oklahoma  88.6Oklahoma State  88.3Wisconsin  88.1Georgia  86.6Michigan  86.0Stanford  85.5Notre Dame  82.5Miami  81.6Kansas State  81.6Louisville  81.2Florida  81.2TCU  81.0North Carolina State  80.9Virginia Tech 79.9Washington State  79.7Tennessee  79.7Houston  79.3UCLA  79.0Oregon  78.9Texas A&amp;M  78.9Texas  78.7Utah  78.3Colorado  78.3Arkansas  76.5Iowa  76.3South Carolina  76.3Northwestern  76.0Colorado State 75.9Mississippi State  75.6Pittsburgh  75.3San Diego State  75.3South Florida  75.2Memphis  75.0BYU  74.8Boise State  74.7Nebraska  74.4Vanderbilt  74.4West Virginia  73.9North Carolina  73.8Mississippi  73.8Indiana  73.7Georgia Tech  73.6Kentucky  73.0Duke  72.4Navy  72.4Toledo  72.3Michigan State  72.2Western Michigan  71.8Maryland  71.6Central Florida  71.3Minnesota  71.3Iowa State  71.2Oregon State  71.0Tulsa  71.0Missouri  70.9Appalachian State  70.6Texas Tech  70.3Baylor  70.1Arizona State  70.0SMU  69.6Western Kentucky  69.1California  68.3Louisiana Tech  68.1Troy  67.9Boston College  67.6Wake Forest  67.4Arizona  67.3Wyoming  66.7Miami (OH)  66.3Arkansas State  66.2Temple  66.1Syracuse  65.7Virginia  65.6Purdue  64.9Middle Tennessee 64.7Army  64.3Air Force  64.0Ohio University  64.6Texas San Antonio  63.6Rutgers  62.9Tulane  62.0Kansas  62.0Cincinnati  61.2Marshall  60.5Eastern Michigan  60.4Illinois  60.3Southern Miss 60.0New Mexico  60.0Hawaii  60.0Northern Illinois  59.4Old Dominion  59.3Utah State  58.9Georgia Southern  58.1North Texas  57.1Ball State  56.4Fresno State  55.6Central Michigan  55.6Massachusetts  55.4Connecticut  55.4Nevada  55.3Idaho  55.2Louisiana Monroe  54.7Coastal Carolina  54.7East Carolina  54.6Florida International  54.5Akron  54.5San Jose State  54.4Bowling Green  54.3Louisiana Lafayette  54.0Florida Atlantic  53.4South Alabama  53.2Georgia State  53.1Buffalo  51.0New Mexico State  50.3UAB  48.5Rice  48.5UNLV  48.3Kent State  47.6UTEP  46.2Charlotte  45.0Texas State  41.9

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

Fantastic List brother, love reading it . I am working on mine right now.....Surprised to see you so down on Georgia Tech, think they&#x27;re going to be really good this year

steponaduck · Answer

ECU above south ala?

Tappy · Answer

Not sure why you are so high on Ohio State, I see them losing to Oklahoma... They looked plain bad against Iowa, and their secondary got shredded...

USC looked absolutely horrible too... They literally almost lost to unranked Western Michigan...

Oklahoma should be top 5...

You put Florida ahead of South Carolina?

I just stopped reading after that...

bookieassassin · Answer

good man Tappy........................butSTOP !!..........don&#x27;t overreact to what you JUST saw..................SELDOM.....do you make more than a 1-2 pt adjustment week to week.....unless your numbers were really off to begin with  *like if you  jumped blindly on that Texas drunken bandwagoneg.  we can&#x27;t know for sure that USC wasn&#x27;t looking ahead to Tree.....just yet  * we can say that USF isn&#x27;t as good as we thought (2 games as evidence).....we can say that Maryland and Rutgers are much better....probably.....etcSee-sawing back and forth / up-down is a bankroll ANNIHILATOR.............

Tappy · Answer

You are correct, I made the same mistake with Bama and Clemson, and I will not make it again, I am just stating what I saw. I will without a doubt take things like this into consideration when I am betting week two.

Skipster · Answer

thank you for sharing these. It&#x27;s amazing how many people don&#x27;t understand that so much of this is just numbers. I didn&#x27;t really get it until a few years ago. Years ago, a Covers poster Thorpe posted his numbers and as an experiment I started making cheap 20 buck bets based on his beginning chart. I didn&#x27;t really know how to adjust it, but i tried. by the end, it was the best year I ever had gambling.

TD21 · Answer

Betonline openers locked in:Mississippi State -3  120 (2.5u)Oregon  -2.5  (2u)Ohio State -6.5  (1u) *already locked in for OSU -7 from GOY lines -- 2u totalRutgers &#x2B;2.5  (1.5u)Kansas -3  (1.5u)Auburn &#x2B;9 (1u) *already locked in for Auburn &#x2B;6 (0.5u) GOY lines -- 1.5u totalStanford &#x2B;10.5  (1u)SMU -11 (1u)Washington State -7 -105 (1u)Idaho -8.5  (0.75u)Fresno State &#x2B;45 (0.75u)NC State -19.5 (0.75u)Michigan -25  (0.75u)Indiana -2.5 &amp; -3 (0.75u)Oregon State &#x2B;3  (0.5u)Tulsa -13  &#x2B;100 (0.5u)UTSA &#x2B;17 (0.5u)Duke &#x2B;4.5 (0.5u)Michigan State -3  (0.5u)Purdue -2 &amp; -2.5  (0.5u)Wake Forest &#x2B;3 &amp; &#x2B;4  (0.5u)Colorado -34.5  (0.5uIllinois &#x2B;7.5 (0.25u)South Carolina &#x2B;4.5  (0.25u)

dcgmt · Answer

GL TD21

cherokee10 · Answer

If you&#x27;re going to put down a team, atleast get the opponent right. Keep it classy Bama.

undermysac · Answer

Approximately what time does Bet online open on Sunday&#x27;s?Good luck this week

lvmike32 · Answer

TD, thank you for posting your Power Rankings.  I know you&#x27;re either a professional sports bettor or professional level.  I&#x27;m not a capper and never will be (for many reasons) but I try to tail sharps like you and Bookie and make some units.  I know I will never get your numbers but try to come close and at least stay within key numbers like 3 and 7.  When I look at your rankings and compare them to the opening numbers you got it&#x27;s easy to see why you get such good early numbers.  I have BOL but wasn&#x27;t ready today (didn&#x27;t put 2 and 2 together) but I will be in the future - as I know you can&#x27;t post what you got until you&#x27;re done and by then a lot of the line value is gone.  Hopefully you&#x27;ll continue to be generous and keep posting your updated Power Rankings (and it is VERY generous of you) and, if you do, again many thanks.  It is greatly appreciated.

TD21 · Answer

Thanks under, same to you!  BOL typically starts to post at 3:00 eastern time.  Sometimes later, but usually by 4:00 at the latest.  Today was right around 3:00.

TD21 · Answer

Week 1 recap:   31-8-1 Overall,  &#x2B;16.8 units&gt;1 unit plays:  5-0-1Boston College -3 (2.5u)  PUSHBoston College / Northern Illinois Under 46.5 (1u) &amp; Under 51 (1u) -- 2u total  WINBYU / LSU Under 48 (2u)  WINPortland State &#x2B;31,&#x2B;32, &#x2B;34.5, &amp; &#x2B;36 -- 1.5u total  WINUAB / Alabama A&amp;M Under 63.5 (0.5u), Under 61.5 (0.5u) &amp; Under 61 (0.25u)  -- 1.25u overall  WINLiberty &#x2B;31  (0.5u), &#x2B;29 (0.25u), &#x2B;30.5 (0.25) &amp; &#x2B;31.5 (0.25u) -- 1.25u overall  WIN1 unit plays:  6-1Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)  WINBuffalo &#x2B;28 (1u)  WINRutgers &#x2B;31.5 -115 (1u)  WINBoston College -2.5 (1u) WINFlorida State / Alabama Under 53 (1u)  WINTexas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) &amp; -9.5 (0.25u) &amp; Texas Tech -7 (0.25u) -- 1u total  WINEast Carolina  &#x2B;6  (0.25u), PK (0.25u), &amp; &#x2B;7 (0.5u) -- 1u total  LOSS0.75 units:  2-2Portland State / BYU Under 61, U60, U59.5 (0.25u each)  WINColorado State &#x2B;8.5  (0.75u)  (vs. Colorado)  LOSSOhio State / Indiana Under 53 (0.5u) &amp; Under 55 (0.25u)  LOSSTroy &#x2B;12.5 -112  (0.75u)  WIN0.5 units:  9-3Utah -20.5 -130 &amp; -16.5 (0.25u each) -- 0.5u total  WINUtah / North Dakota Under 60  WINDelaware -33  LOSSPittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u) &amp; Pittsburgh -13 (0.25u) -- 0.5u total  LOSSIndiana team total under 18  LOSSKansas State -25.5  WINUAB -9.5  WINEastern Kentucky &#x2B;39  WIN7 point teaser: Alabama -0.5 with Alabama/Florida State Under 56.5  WINJames Madison / East Carolina Under 71  WINTulane -19 (0.25u) &amp; Tulane -16.5 (0.25u)  -- (0.5u total)  WINLiberty &#x2B;20.5 2nd half  WIN0.25 units:  9-2San Jose State team total Under 24.5  WINUtah / North Dakota Under 28.5 2nd half  WINMcNeese State -1.5  LOSSTennessee-Martin -32.5  WINMissouri State &#x2B;35.5  WINWilliam &amp; Mary &#x2B;28 (0.25u)  WINJackson State &#x2B;64.5 (0.25u)  WINFlorida State team total Under 21.5  WINWMU / USC Under 59.5  LOSSMontana State &#x2B;38  WINTCU -21 2nd half  WINUDML:  -0.25uEast Carolina ML &#x2B;230 (risking 0.25u)  LOSSUDML parlay:  -0.05uColorado State &#x2B;225 (vs. Colorado) with Troy &#x2B;350   (pays &#x2B;1363)  LOSS

Last2thirst · Answer

Monster Week 0/1 TD!! Capping early and hard certainly pays!

Laroja · Answer

What a great week. Congrats.I max bet ECU also, &#x2B;8.5 at the best line but what can you do lol. Luckily Pinnacle has much lower limits on "NCAA extras".The lines you got are really obscene. A few of them have moved 7&#x2B; points already. What are the limits for BOL openers? And I believe they are juiced at -120 correct? I might reopen my account I wish that the limits were much higher.Gl this week.

traderjoe13 · Answer

as a buckeye fan it was obvious they were going to attempt to win the game with strictly a vanilla gameplan as to not tip their hand to Oklahoma. the offensive scheme looked earily similar to the one ran out there last year by warriner and tim beck. adjustments were made at halftime and that game wasnt even close in the second half. moral of the story.... dont overeact to week 1. ohio state could have easily won that game by 50. but its a marathon of a season, and that wasnt part of the strategy.

TD21 · Answer

lvmike32, you&#x27;re welcome.  Definitely not a professional... professinal level - that&#x27;s debateable depending on who you ask.  I&#x27;m well prepared and do my best to put the time in to "do it write" and find line value.  I started posting plays in 2014 -- basically to earn my keep around here and prove to the forum that I know what I&#x27;m doing.  A lot of good cappers here.   Now, I almost feel bad posting some of the opening lines I grab, but the intent is to share ideas and show which side I favor.  And for whatever reason, I feel I need to continuously prove myself.So, a little bit about the PR #s above.  At the end of the season, I spend a lot of time trying to finalize the "correct #s".  You know that covers ATS standings webpage... you open it, see Temple at 10-2 ATS, or see Arizona 2-10 ATS.  I try to make every team 6-6 ATS and with a full season ATS margin near net 0.  This is impossible to do for all teams!  You always end up with a few 7-5 or 5-7 ATS teams, but by small margins on that final game.  And you also have volatile high ceiling teams (like 2016 Louisville for example) that you can get to 6-6, but then their ATS margin is still well above zero because of their blowout ATS margins (especially if they blow out another highly rated team - see FSU score last year).  So, you have to use some judgment / common sense in those cases.  Once those final PR #s are established, in the offseason I simply figure out how many points better I think they are on both offense and defense.  This offseason review process also forces me to review how teams do against the top opponents vs. middle of the pack opponents, vs. worst teams, note their tendencies (run it up on lesser teams, or take the foot of the gas, etc).  This time of year (week 1 and further into September) I try to clean up the teams that I missed on (you&#x27;re not going to correct in the right direction on 100% of teams).  Keep an eye on if the direction I shade a team (up or down) from the fair line is correct based on the actual score outcomes week to week.  When making weekly updates, one must be aware of front end loaded or back end loaded schedules in terms of difficulty.  I keep a pretty detailed spreadsheet of ATS margins, PR # adjustments, so I can see the fair line for any two teams had they played in week 1, or week 2, or whenever as teams have small peaks and valleys to their value throughout a season.For opening lines, I literally copy my calculated lines from the spreadsheet into a spiral notebook, add a column for massey ratings point spread, add another column for BA&#x27;s fair line value and see which side I lean.  This is ONLY from a line value perspective.  All other capping angles (finding spots), situational &amp; matchup reviews are also necessary.  Anyway, if one does this (or similar) it&#x27;s relatively easy to spot soft opening lines.

TD21 · Answer

Betonline opens at -110, but they&#x27;ll move to &#x2B;100/-105/-115/-120 depending upon immediate/early action.  For max on openers, I&#x27;ve seen it capped at $250.  Seems like in the past I&#x27;ve seen opening limits at $500 as well.It&#x27;s 5D that has the -120 for FCS vs. FBS games (on game day they&#x27;ll move to -110).  Also their College Extra FCS vs. FCS is -120.

lvmike32 · Answer

TD, thanks again.  very impressive.  I live in LV and while I work as a CPA/Consultant to the gaming industry I also make money gambling.  I often use the word "semi-professional" for lack of a better term.  So for what it&#x27;s worth you are definitely professional level in my book.  I just really appreciate the help you and Bookie (and many others) give to the forum for folks like me who don&#x27;t cap. It&#x27;s enabled me to make some nice money betting sports.  I&#x27;m pissed off I wasn&#x27;t really ready here for WK 0, 1 and 2 but I was swamped with work and just let things slide.  Missed out on some nice units.  But won&#x27;t happen again.  Best of luck the rest of the year and thanks again.

TD21 · Answer

5D FCS vs FBS &amp; College Extra:South Dakota &#x2B;7.5 (0.5u) &amp; &#x2B;7 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overallHoward &#x2B;31.5 (0.5u)  *looks like that steponaduck got ahold of this one in the last half hour.  Tennessee-Martin &#x2B;29.5  (0.25u)Eastern Kentucky &#x2B;34.5  (0.25u)Sam Houston State -23  (0.25u)

TD21 · Answer

Interesting... UT-Martin moved to &#x2B;29, then someone just took Ole Miss &amp; its back to &#x2B;31.  Added at &#x2B;31.*also, typo earlier, EKU is &#x2B;34, not &#x2B;34.5.5D FCS vs FBS &amp; College Extra:South Dakota &#x2B;7.5 (0.5u) &amp; &#x2B;7 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overallHoward &#x2B;31.5 (0.5u)  Tennessee-Martin &#x2B;29.5  (0.25u) &amp; Added &#x2B;31 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overallEastern Kentucky &#x2B;34  (0.25u)Sam Houston State -23  (0.25u)

UNIMAN · Answer

I agree here. First half was vanilla game plan, second half we saw the run/pass option from Barrett.Indiana had that tall Cobbs eating up the secondary early. Adjustments made, 35-7 second half.

TD21 · Answer

One more for now.  .... until the rest of the College Extra are released.5D FCS vs FBS &amp; College Extra:South Dakota &#x2B;7.5 (0.5u) &amp; &#x2B;7 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overallHoward &#x2B;31.5 (0.5u)  Tennessee-Martin &#x2B;29.5  (0.25u) &amp; &#x2B;31 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overallAdded:  Tennessee-Martin / Mississippi Under 68  (0.5u)Eastern Kentucky &#x2B;34  (0.25u)Sam Houston State -23  (0.25u)

TD21 · Answer

lvmike, we lived in Royal Highlands for about 3 years.  Used to frequent the South Point and the M sportsbooks.Know what you mean about getting busy.  My time management (with family &amp; work) is the biggest challenge to doing a decent job of capping.  I think if its the Las Vegas Saturday lines that are driving the offshore FBS vs. FCS line moves, then one could really make some solid cash in town with much better limits.  Might be a good idea to try and get away to a sportsbook on Saturday in you&#x27;re into that FBS vs. FCS action.

TD Week 2

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