I'm pulling this question from my week 1 thread over to this week 2 thread.
Do you have any idea why Ball State is laying such a high number? Very young team. I expected -10/-11 but even against UAB -14.5. Just curious if you have any insight on that number.
My #s have this line at -10.7. And I wrote down most betonline openers as they happened and this one opened at -9 but quickly moved to -11.5.
I think the general betting public is just really down on UAB and has no idea how good (or bad) they really are. I personally am a little skeptical of the offense, but I think the defense is better than people realize. Also, anyone who looks at analytics / power ratings - every one of these guys just sticks to their formula / algorithm. And when there's some component for last year's results, they get a zero for that component, but every other really bad team gets even some credit. Connelly's preseason #s have UAB #130 out of #130 for this reason. I can't think of other examples at the moment off the top of my head. But I believe mainstream PR# stuff like Steele's Power Poll was pretty low on both UAB and Coastal Carolina for example. These teams just aren't quite as bad as what most people are reading and thinking. That's my best guess / explanation for what we're seeing.
Let's see what the UAB offense can really do against a non-SWAC opponent. This weekend should be pretty telling of where they're really at on both sides of the ball. Although, Ball State not great on defense. If UAB struggles on offense against that defense, then they may just be that bad on offense. Kinda hope that's not the case and they can fly under the radar value-wise.
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Scal, nice win tonight on Purdue!
I'm pulling this question from my week 1 thread over to this week 2 thread.
Do you have any idea why Ball State is laying such a high number? Very young team. I expected -10/-11 but even against UAB -14.5. Just curious if you have any insight on that number.
My #s have this line at -10.7. And I wrote down most betonline openers as they happened and this one opened at -9 but quickly moved to -11.5.
I think the general betting public is just really down on UAB and has no idea how good (or bad) they really are. I personally am a little skeptical of the offense, but I think the defense is better than people realize. Also, anyone who looks at analytics / power ratings - every one of these guys just sticks to their formula / algorithm. And when there's some component for last year's results, they get a zero for that component, but every other really bad team gets even some credit. Connelly's preseason #s have UAB #130 out of #130 for this reason. I can't think of other examples at the moment off the top of my head. But I believe mainstream PR# stuff like Steele's Power Poll was pretty low on both UAB and Coastal Carolina for example. These teams just aren't quite as bad as what most people are reading and thinking. That's my best guess / explanation for what we're seeing.
Let's see what the UAB offense can really do against a non-SWAC opponent. This weekend should be pretty telling of where they're really at on both sides of the ball. Although, Ball State not great on defense. If UAB struggles on offense against that defense, then they may just be that bad on offense. Kinda hope that's not the case and they can fly under the radar value-wise.
sabs5000, I just bet college football. Usually get a little college basketball action in February/March but nothing like what I do for CFB.
Did I mention my 10 team open parlay or what made you think of that? ... think I may have mentioned it last week in my other thread as I bumped one play that was also part of the parlay. Sure can't find it now though. Anyway, its still alive. And it's now essentially a 9-team parlay since the original BYU/LSU Under play (from when the game was still in Houston) was cancelled. I added it again for the game in New Orleans. 1 play pending this weekend and 2 open. Will see if I can't fck this up with week 3 openers. If OSU can cover, not sure if I'll get conservative with a couple ML favs or not. What fun is that though?
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sabs5000, I just bet college football. Usually get a little college basketball action in February/March but nothing like what I do for CFB.
Did I mention my 10 team open parlay or what made you think of that? ... think I may have mentioned it last week in my other thread as I bumped one play that was also part of the parlay. Sure can't find it now though. Anyway, its still alive. And it's now essentially a 9-team parlay since the original BYU/LSU Under play (from when the game was still in Houston) was cancelled. I added it again for the game in New Orleans. 1 play pending this weekend and 2 open. Will see if I can't fck this up with week 3 openers. If OSU can cover, not sure if I'll get conservative with a couple ML favs or not. What fun is that though?
sabs5000, I just bet college football. Usually get a little college basketball action in February/March but nothing like what I do for CFB.
Did I mention my 10 team open parlay or what made you think of that? ... think I may have mentioned it last week in my other thread as I bumped one play that was also part of the parlay. Sure can't find it now though. Anyway, its still alive. And it's now essentially a 9-team parlay since the original BYU/LSU Under play (from when the game was still in Houston) was cancelled. I added it again for the game in New Orleans. 1 play pending this weekend and 2 open. Will see if I can't fck this up with week 3 openers. If OSU can cover, not sure if I'll get conservative with a couple ML favs or not. What fun is that though?
I can't get the dumb thing to copy/paste from the website. Even if i have none of my own text, it still says 7800 character limit.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
sabs5000, I just bet college football. Usually get a little college basketball action in February/March but nothing like what I do for CFB.
Did I mention my 10 team open parlay or what made you think of that? ... think I may have mentioned it last week in my other thread as I bumped one play that was also part of the parlay. Sure can't find it now though. Anyway, its still alive. And it's now essentially a 9-team parlay since the original BYU/LSU Under play (from when the game was still in Houston) was cancelled. I added it again for the game in New Orleans. 1 play pending this weekend and 2 open. Will see if I can't fck this up with week 3 openers. If OSU can cover, not sure if I'll get conservative with a couple ML favs or not. What fun is that though?
I can't get the dumb thing to copy/paste from the website. Even if i have none of my own text, it still says 7800 character limit.
bitty11, this is exactly right. As post #8 says, Betonline openers.
Thanks jefff, what site logs this minute by minute level of detail? I honestly didn't know a site kept this level of detail. Good to know for when I get the same question next week.
I use sportsoptions. It's a paid lines service. I think you can get free delayed lines from donbest and sbrlines but i'm not sure if they show you history or not.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
bitty11, this is exactly right. As post #8 says, Betonline openers.
Thanks jefff, what site logs this minute by minute level of detail? I honestly didn't know a site kept this level of detail. Good to know for when I get the same question next week.
I use sportsoptions. It's a paid lines service. I think you can get free delayed lines from donbest and sbrlines but i'm not sure if they show you history or not.
Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?
very real. early in the season, the Sunday afternoon CFB openers will move a lot very quickly at BOL (if their freakin site was up). it doesnt take much money from a few people to move those lines.
here is Mississippi State this week
09/03/17 05:13:03pm
-7-20
+7ev
09/03/17 03:18:19pm
-6-20
+6ev
09/03/17 03:17:36pm
-5-20
+5ev
09/03/17 03:17:30pm
-4½-20
+4½ev
09/03/17 03:17:12pm
-3-15
+3-05
09/03/17 03:16:41pm
-1½-20
+1½ev
09/03/17 03:16:05pm
pk-10
pk-10
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?
very real. early in the season, the Sunday afternoon CFB openers will move a lot very quickly at BOL (if their freakin site was up). it doesnt take much money from a few people to move those lines.
hey td, nice work so far. Quick question, i saw you like Umass with the plus 185, do you still like them at plus 4 today as a play?
Yes, I just added UMass +4 -108 (0.5u) in the time it took me to write this and with a few interruptions.
QB Ford with his security blanket / best receiving option TE Breneman upgraded to probable. Starting DE Downey also back from suspension. UMass backs against the wall after 0-2 start in winnable games. Home game today with back to back road games on deck. Need a win here.
ODU not great #s vs. non-conf. Star RB Lawry not 100% with a hamstring injury. Already thin at LB from graduation losses and now coach's son (starting MLB) is OFY. I don't think LaRussa is close to the level of QB play we've seen in recent years from Washington and Heinicke until he gets more experience. ODU struggled to put away Albany (decent team / nearly made FCS playoffs / arguably should have been in ahead of N.H.); 24-17 4th qtr game after making a comeback. And that was without their star RB.
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Quote Originally Posted by deezdonks:
hey td, nice work so far. Quick question, i saw you like Umass with the plus 185, do you still like them at plus 4 today as a play?
Yes, I just added UMass +4 -108 (0.5u) in the time it took me to write this and with a few interruptions.
QB Ford with his security blanket / best receiving option TE Breneman upgraded to probable. Starting DE Downey also back from suspension. UMass backs against the wall after 0-2 start in winnable games. Home game today with back to back road games on deck. Need a win here.
ODU not great #s vs. non-conf. Star RB Lawry not 100% with a hamstring injury. Already thin at LB from graduation losses and now coach's son (starting MLB) is OFY. I don't think LaRussa is close to the level of QB play we've seen in recent years from Washington and Heinicke until he gets more experience. ODU struggled to put away Albany (decent team / nearly made FCS playoffs / arguably should have been in ahead of N.H.); 24-17 4th qtr game after making a comeback. And that was without their star RB.
Whats up with uga/nd ttl climbing to 58?? Means someone has to hit 30 here..... not so sure abt that
puffkit,
Another game I don't have much of a feel for. At a glance, I agree with you. Love that Georgia defense. And with the RBs they have and starting Fromm, you'd think they don't want to get into a shootout. I can see why you lean Under. And trust your instincts. You were spot on yesterday with that Alcorn State / FIU play. FIU worse than I thought, will need to downgrade their PR# some this week; although not too much just yet as circumstances with unexpected travel / alot of players from Florida with their minds on other things with the hurricane coming through, certainly a factor.
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Quote Originally Posted by puffkit:
Whats up with uga/nd ttl climbing to 58?? Means someone has to hit 30 here..... not so sure abt that
puffkit,
Another game I don't have much of a feel for. At a glance, I agree with you. Love that Georgia defense. And with the RBs they have and starting Fromm, you'd think they don't want to get into a shootout. I can see why you lean Under. And trust your instincts. You were spot on yesterday with that Alcorn State / FIU play. FIU worse than I thought, will need to downgrade their PR# some this week; although not too much just yet as circumstances with unexpected travel / alot of players from Florida with their minds on other things with the hurricane coming through, certainly a factor.
GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
Stay Hard, Doc
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GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
Stay Hard, Doc
Pecador,
I had a pretty lengthy response almost complete earlier this morning, then my computer crashed on me. Lost it. This old laptop gets too hot when running too many programs / fan can't keep up. Will see if I can't regurgitate some of those same thoughts now.
I thought about trying to middle with EWU if it hits +14. I can see why you'd consider EWU at that +13.5. A little surprised it moved that much. But new HC, hard to say how they'll come out after a worse than expected loss to Texas Tech. I am kinda down on EWU this year without my boy Beau Baldwin in charge. *Sidenote, I was there the day BB set the CWU since game passing record. Even Kitna never broke it. BB, great guy, hope he does well at Cal. Tough place to win long term though.
Also, I coulda shoulda tried to middle that Sam Houston / Prairie View game a couple nights ago. I had the opening -23, it was +34 by kickoff. Who exactly was betting this beyond about -27.5. I was a little leery of SHSU coming off the big win vs. Richmond and now maybe not totally focused on a SWAC team. And with the Richmond game being delayed two days and moved to Baylor, short week for SHSU, plus only 5 starters back on D, I thought PV would score some (they're decent on offense for SWAC level). Really thought the SHSU offense would still cover this one at -23 in a 56-28 type game. Oh well. Gotta move on.
So which team totals did you end up taking?
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Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
Stay Hard, Doc
Pecador,
I had a pretty lengthy response almost complete earlier this morning, then my computer crashed on me. Lost it. This old laptop gets too hot when running too many programs / fan can't keep up. Will see if I can't regurgitate some of those same thoughts now.
I thought about trying to middle with EWU if it hits +14. I can see why you'd consider EWU at that +13.5. A little surprised it moved that much. But new HC, hard to say how they'll come out after a worse than expected loss to Texas Tech. I am kinda down on EWU this year without my boy Beau Baldwin in charge. *Sidenote, I was there the day BB set the CWU since game passing record. Even Kitna never broke it. BB, great guy, hope he does well at Cal. Tough place to win long term though.
Also, I coulda shoulda tried to middle that Sam Houston / Prairie View game a couple nights ago. I had the opening -23, it was +34 by kickoff. Who exactly was betting this beyond about -27.5. I was a little leery of SHSU coming off the big win vs. Richmond and now maybe not totally focused on a SWAC team. And with the Richmond game being delayed two days and moved to Baylor, short week for SHSU, plus only 5 starters back on D, I thought PV would score some (they're decent on offense for SWAC level). Really thought the SHSU offense would still cover this one at -23 in a 56-28 type game. Oh well. Gotta move on.
GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
GL. TD, Especially looking @ your TT's and FCS. Got several FCS I like but none disagree with yours. Well, probably playing E. Wash. +13.5. Don't think I can pass on that.
Td, I put a small on all but Clemson. Everyone thinks they have that game figured except me. Not a clue. Can't take to much away from last week except neither surprised me. Huge game for me going forward with future plays. Should get a feel after this.
I'm gonna mention my FCS plays.
1. Buck. +1
2.Mcneese -14
3. S. Dak. St. -12.5
4. Dayton +9.5
5. Stony -2
6. Duq. -22.5
7. E. Wash. +13.5
8. W. Car. -34.5
Stay Hard, 10:33 CT, Doc
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Td, I put a small on all but Clemson. Everyone thinks they have that game figured except me. Not a clue. Can't take to much away from last week except neither surprised me. Huge game for me going forward with future plays. Should get a feel after this.
FAU is in a similar situation to FIU...maybe even worse but i'm just not sure about the number. no way they are focused for Wisky......lining up for correct formation while wondering whats going to happen at home.....and whether they will even be able to go home. here are a few quotes:
Even head coach Lane Kiffin, who earlier in the week said being informed he needed to move his boat was what clued him into the storm being dangerous, was stoic when asked if an event like Hurricane Irma can unify a team.“I don’t think it brings them together at all; I think it’s a big deal (and) the decision to take these kids away from their families, that’s a lot on their minds,” Kiffin said. “I think it’d be really hard to really put the game as a priority if I’m out there, watching TV, seeing what’s going on with my family, and not being able to help them.”
“(The mystery of how bad the storm will be) is somewhat of a distraction,” linebacker Hosea Barnwell V admitted. “We’re just staying focused, staying in practice, and worrying about Wisconsin. We’re basically preparing for the worst.”
“(Tuesday) I think is when it really started to hit everybody,” Al-Shaair said Wednesday. “Going back and forth, they cancelled school … that’s when we started not really knowing what was going on.”
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FAU is in a similar situation to FIU...maybe even worse but i'm just not sure about the number. no way they are focused for Wisky......lining up for correct formation while wondering whats going to happen at home.....and whether they will even be able to go home. here are a few quotes:
Even head coach Lane Kiffin, who earlier in the week said being informed he needed to move his boat was what clued him into the storm being dangerous, was stoic when asked if an event like Hurricane Irma can unify a team.“I don’t think it brings them together at all; I think it’s a big deal (and) the decision to take these kids away from their families, that’s a lot on their minds,” Kiffin said. “I think it’d be really hard to really put the game as a priority if I’m out there, watching TV, seeing what’s going on with my family, and not being able to help them.”
“(The mystery of how bad the storm will be) is somewhat of a distraction,” linebacker Hosea Barnwell V admitted. “We’re just staying focused, staying in practice, and worrying about Wisconsin. We’re basically preparing for the worst.”
“(Tuesday) I think is when it really started to hit everybody,” Al-Shaair said Wednesday. “Going back and forth, they cancelled school … that’s when we started not really knowing what was going on.”
I'm pulling this question from my week 1 thread over to this week 2 thread.
Do you have any idea why Ball State is laying such a high number? Very young team. I expected -10/-11 but even against UAB -14.5. Just curious if you have any insight on that number.
My #s have this line at -10.7. And I wrote down most betonline openers as they happened and this one opened at -9 but quickly moved to -11.5.
I think the general betting public is just really down on UAB and has no idea how good (or bad) they really are. I personally am a little skeptical of the offense, but I think the defense is better than people realize. Also, anyone who looks at analytics / power ratings - every one of these guys just sticks to their formula / algorithm. And when there's some component for last year's results, they get a zero for that component, but every other really bad team gets even some credit. Connelly's preseason #s have UAB #130 out of #130 for this reason. I can't think of other examples at the moment off the top of my head. But I believe mainstream PR# stuff like Steele's Power Poll was pretty low on both UAB and Coastal Carolina for example. These teams just aren't quite as bad as what most people are reading and thinking. That's my best guess / explanation for what we're seeing.
Let's see what the UAB offense can really do against a non-SWAC opponent. This weekend should be pretty telling of where they're really at on both sides of the ball. Although, Ball State not great on defense. If UAB struggles on offense against that defense, then they may just be that bad on offense. Kinda hope that's not the case and they can fly under the radar value-wise.
Td, I do not have an answer. I researched this game hard last night and watched the ball State Illini full game for answers. I still doesn't have one.
A&M win to me is meaningless on the whole. Worthless FCS team.
But this is not a group of freshman.
This is not SMU that Houston and Andre Ware dropped 95 on when they revised their program in 1988.
These are transfers. And the UaB coach went out of his way to make that point when assembling this team. Reviving a program is different.
And worse, Ball State has 52 freshman I believe! So if anything Ball state is the team with noteable inexperiencefor an FBS team.
The line is now MINUS FIFTEEN.
Even given all the above in favor of Uab, if I'm going to pull the trigger, I lean Ball Statesuch a degen I am
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Scal, nice win tonight on Purdue!
I'm pulling this question from my week 1 thread over to this week 2 thread.
Do you have any idea why Ball State is laying such a high number? Very young team. I expected -10/-11 but even against UAB -14.5. Just curious if you have any insight on that number.
My #s have this line at -10.7. And I wrote down most betonline openers as they happened and this one opened at -9 but quickly moved to -11.5.
I think the general betting public is just really down on UAB and has no idea how good (or bad) they really are. I personally am a little skeptical of the offense, but I think the defense is better than people realize. Also, anyone who looks at analytics / power ratings - every one of these guys just sticks to their formula / algorithm. And when there's some component for last year's results, they get a zero for that component, but every other really bad team gets even some credit. Connelly's preseason #s have UAB #130 out of #130 for this reason. I can't think of other examples at the moment off the top of my head. But I believe mainstream PR# stuff like Steele's Power Poll was pretty low on both UAB and Coastal Carolina for example. These teams just aren't quite as bad as what most people are reading and thinking. That's my best guess / explanation for what we're seeing.
Let's see what the UAB offense can really do against a non-SWAC opponent. This weekend should be pretty telling of where they're really at on both sides of the ball. Although, Ball State not great on defense. If UAB struggles on offense against that defense, then they may just be that bad on offense. Kinda hope that's not the case and they can fly under the radar value-wise.
Td, I do not have an answer. I researched this game hard last night and watched the ball State Illini full game for answers. I still doesn't have one.
A&M win to me is meaningless on the whole. Worthless FCS team.
But this is not a group of freshman.
This is not SMU that Houston and Andre Ware dropped 95 on when they revised their program in 1988.
These are transfers. And the UaB coach went out of his way to make that point when assembling this team. Reviving a program is different.
And worse, Ball State has 52 freshman I believe! So if anything Ball state is the team with noteable inexperiencefor an FBS team.
The line is now MINUS FIFTEEN.
Even given all the above in favor of Uab, if I'm going to pull the trigger, I lean Ball Statesuch a degen I am
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for an FBS team.
such a degen I am
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